Walter Dodds the World’S Worst Problems the World’S Worst Problems Walter Dodds

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Walter Dodds the World’S Worst Problems the World’S Worst Problems Walter Dodds Walter Dodds The World’s Worst Problems The World’s Worst Problems Walter Dodds The World’s Worst Problems Walter Dodds Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan, KS, USA ISBN 978-3-030-30409-6 ISBN 978-3-030-30410-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30410-2 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgments I thank Dolly Gudder, Anne Schechner, Lindsey Bruckerhoff, Sky Hedden, Crosby Hedden, Garrett Hopper, James Guinnip, Liz Renner, Casey Pennock, and Keith Gido for providing input on the book. Sherestha Saini kindly and patiently consid- ered the book as Editor at Springer. I especially thank all the students and others who took the time to discuss many of the ideas in this book with me so thoughtfully. Also, I am grateful for my seminar hosts over the years who have indulged me and allowed me to speak on this topic including Davi Gasparini Fernandes Cunha and Antoine Leduc. I thank Kansas State University for support during while preparing this book. v Contents 1 Introduction �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 2 Global Problems? ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 Taking the Bias Out of Confirmation ������������������������������������������������������ 6 Moral Assumptions ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 How Are People Dying Unnecessarily Right Now? �������������������������������� 11 What Might Lead to Future Global Catastrophes? ���������������������������������� 13 How Are People Suffering Now? ������������������������������������������������������������ 14 Risk Analysis and the Future ������������������������������������������������������������������ 15 The Emotional Bits ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 The Problems Considered in This Book �������������������������������������������������� 17 3 Apocalypse ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19 Asteroid ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20 Reversal of the Earth’s Magnetic Field: My Cell Phone Won’t Work! �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 23 Super Volcanoes: Human Sacrifice Is Not a Solution ������������������������������ 24 Gamma Ray Burst, Red Giants, and Other Global Catastrophes ������������ 25 Techno-threats ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 26 Religion: The End of Times �������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 Catastrophic Failure of Societal Order? �������������������������������������������������� 28 4 Disease Now and Potential Future Pandemics ������������������������������������ 31 What Causes the Deadliest Diseases? ������������������������������������������������������ 32 The Biological Arms Race: Disease as an Evolutionary Process ������������ 34 Chronic Diseases of Human Kind: Why Do So Many Children Die of Preventable Diseases? ������������������������������������������������������������������ 37 Spread of Successful Diseases: Why Epidemiology Matters ������������������ 38 Emergent Pandemics and Superbugs ������������������������������������������������������ 40 Bioterrorism, Biological Warfare, and Accidents ������������������������������������ 42 How Can We Stop Pandemics? ���������������������������������������������������������������� 44 vii viii Contents 5 Hunger ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 A Billion Hungry People ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 46 How Will We Feed a Growing Population? �������������������������������������������� 47 The Green Revolution Rebooted: Is Genetic Modification Our Savior? ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 Water: The Most Precious Commodity ���������������������������������������������������� 50 Eroding Our Ability to Produce Food ������������������������������������������������������ 51 Political Obstacles to Feeding People ������������������������������������������������������ 52 6 Nuclear Weapons ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 53 Hiroshima ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 54 What Are Nuclear Bombs? ���������������������������������������������������������������������� 54 Global and Regional Nuclear War ���������������������������������������������������������� 55 Radiation �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 56 Zapping the Computers ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 57 Ozone Depletion and Sunburn of Earth �������������������������������������������������� 57 Nuclear Winter and then Nuclear Summer: Out of the Fridge into the Fire ���������������������������������������������������������������� 58 Post-fusion World? ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 59 Nuclear Terrorists ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 60 7 Global Environment in the Anthropocene ������������������������������������������ 63 Our Footprint ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 65 Economic Value of Maintaining the Global Environment ���������������������� 66 The Greenhouse and the Deniers ������������������������������������������������������������ 69 Sunburn Revisited ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 72 Who Will Get Enough Water? ������������������������������������������������������������������ 73 A World of Rats, Cockroaches, and Weeds ���������������������������������������������� 74 Up to Our Necks in Fertilizers ���������������������������������������������������������������� 76 Toxic Chemicals and Antibiotic Resistance �������������������������������������������� 77 What Are the Causes and Solutions of the Largest Environmental Threats? �������������������������������������������������������������������������� 78 8 By the Numbers: Ranking the Problem ���������������������������������������������� 79 Fundamental Assumptions to Create an Index of World Problem Severity �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 How to Compare Suffering and Death? �������������������������������������������������� 81 World Hunger ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 82 Global Nuclear Destruction �������������������������������������������������������������������� 82 Environmental Meltdown ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 83 Meteor Impact ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 84 Magnetic Reversal ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 84 Super Volcano ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 85 Gamma Ray Burst ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 85 Current Infectious Disease ���������������������������������������������������������������������� 85 Pandemic �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 86 Caveats ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 86 The Estimates and Rankings �������������������������������������������������������������������� 87 Contents ix 9 What Do Other People Think the Worst Problems in the World Are? ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 91 Informal Surveys �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 92 Professional Surveys ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������
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