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Global Challenges Foundation Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Global Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Challenges Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Ecological NanotechnologyIntelligence NuclearClimate WarChange Super-volcanoGlobal Governance PandemicSynthetic UnknownCollapse Impact Risks that threaten Catastrophe Biology Consequences humanArtificial civilisationExtreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid 12 Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid IntelligenceEcological ClimateNanotechnology Change NuclearGlobal Governance War Super-volcanoPandemic CollapseSynthetic UnknownImpact Catastrophe Biology Consequences Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano SyntheticIntelligence ClimateUnknown Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Catastrophe Biology Consequences The case for Ecologicala new riskNanotechnology categoryNuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Published February 2015 by Global Challenges Foundation. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Global Challenges Foundation. Any inaccuracies in the report remain the responsibility of the authors. The material and the geographical designations in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Global Challenges Foundation concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For comments and/or queries on this report, please contact the co-authors: Dennis Pamlin Executive Project Manager Global Risks Global Challenges Foundation [email protected] globalchallenges.org or Stuart Armstrong James Martin Research Fellow Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School University of Oxford [email protected] fhi.ox.ac.uk The main authors of this report are Dennis collaborative approach where many people important role. Patrick McSharry, Pamlin, Executive Project Manager, Global have provided invaluable contributions. Head of Smith School’s Catastrophe Challenges Foundation and Dr Stuart Risk Financing research area, provided Armstrong, James Martin Research Fellow, The authors would therefore like to thank invaluable input regarding complex Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin a few people in particular. First and systems and ways that the economic School & Faculty of Philosophy, University foremost László Szombatfalvy, Chairman system can respond to infinite impacts. of Oxford. Dr Stuart Armstrong wrote of the Global Challenges Foundation, Alex Kirby also played a key part as the chapter covering the twelve global whose work is the basis for this report he did so much more than proofread challenges, under the direction of Dennis and whose guidance on all levels has the text; the report would hardly be Pamlin who served as project manager been invaluable. The rest of the board possible to read without his help. Various and himself wrote and edited the rest of of the Global Challenges Foundation additional edits and changes were made the report. Seth Baum, Executive Director have also contributed in many different by Peter Brietbart. of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute ways, in particular, Johan Rockström has and affiliate researcher at the Center for provided important input regarding the Others that must be mentioned, including Research on Environmental Decisions, structure and methodology. Outside the those who participated in the workshop Columbia University, also played an foundation Prof Nick Bostrom, Professor on 14 January 2014, at the Future of important role as he helped develop & Director of the Future of Humanity Humanity Institute (FHI), University of the methodology chapter regarding the Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty Oxford and the workshop at the Munich selection of the global challenges with of Philosophy, University of Oxford, who RE office in London on 15 January 2014, potentially infinite impacts as well as initiated the possibility of working with and helped provide input regarding the providing helpful input throughout the the Future of Humanity Institute at the economic and finance aspects, include process. The report is the result of a University of Oxford, played a particularly (in alphabetical order): Dr Nick Beckstead, Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford Kennette Benedict, Executive Director and Publisher of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Oliver Bettis, Pricing Actuary, Munich RE and Fellow of the Chartered Insurance Institute and the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries Dr Eric Drexler, Academic Visitor, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford Madeleine Enarsson, Transformative Catalyst, 21st Century Frontiers Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Senior Academic Manager, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford and Executive Director, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge Martin Hellman, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University Pan Jiahua, Director of the Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS); Professor of economics at CASS; Vice-President Chinese Society for Ecological Economics; Member of the National Expert Panel on Climate Change and National Foreign Policy Advisory Committee, China Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) at Anglia Ruskin University Nick Mabey, Chief Executive and Founding Director of E3G (Third Generation Environmentalism) Jennifer Morgan, Founder & Co-Convener, The Finance Lab Prof Vincent Müller, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford Robert de Neufville, Professional Associate, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Prof Toby Ord, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford Jules Peck, Founding Partner, Jericho Chambers; Trustee, New Economics Foundation Dr Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford Nick Silver, Director of Callund Consulting and founder and director of the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) Andrew Simms, Author, Fellow at the New Economics Foundation and Chief Analyst at Global Witness Andrew Snyder-Beattie, Academic Project Manager, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford James Taplan, Principal Sustainability Advisor, Forum for the Future Raj Thamotheram, CEO, Preventable Surprises Nathan Wolfe, Director of Global Viral and the Lorry I. Lokey Visiting Professor in Human Biology at Stanford University Liang Yin, Investment Consultant at Towers Watson Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks 1 Contents Contents Executive Summary 4 Preface 26 1. Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation 28 2. Risks with infinite impact: A new category of risks 30 2.1 Report structure .............................................................................................................37 2.2 Goals ...............................................................................................................................38 2.3 Global challenges and infinite impact .........................................................................40
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