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Estimating Remaining Lifetime of Humanity Abstract 1. Introduction
Estimating remaining lifetime of humanity Yigal Gurevich [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we estimate the remaining time for human existence, applying the Doomsday argument and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption to the reference class consisting of all members of the Homo sapiens, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the theory of parameter estimation and available paleodemographic data. The remaining lifetime estimate is found to be 170 years, and the probability of extinction in the coming year is estimated as 0.43%. 1. Introduction Modern humans, Homo sapiens, exist according to available data for at least 130,000 years [4], [5]. It is interesting, however, to estimate the time remaining for the survival of humanity. To determine this value there was proposed the so-called doomsday argument [1] - probabilistic reasoning that predicts the future of the human species, given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. This method was first proposed by Brandon Carter in 1983 [2]. Nick Bostrom modified the method by formulating the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA): each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class. [3]. In this paper, we apply the SSSA method to the reference class consisting of all members of our species, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the parameter estimation theory and the available paleodemographic data. 1 To estimate the remaining time t we will fulfill the assumption that the observer has an equal chance to be anyone at any time. -
Anthropic Measure of Hominid (And Other) Terrestrials. Brandon Carter Luth, Observatoire De Paris-Meudon
Anthropic measure of hominid (and other) terrestrials. Brandon Carter LuTh, Observatoire de Paris-Meudon. Provisional draft, April 2011. Abstract. According to the (weak) anthropic principle, the a priori proba- bility per unit time of finding oneself to be a member of a particular popu- lation is proportional to the number of individuals in that population, mul- tiplied by an anthropic quotient that is normalised to unity in the ordinary (average adult) human case. This quotient might exceed unity for conceiv- able superhuman extraterrestrials, but it should presumably be smaller for our terrestrial anthropoid relations, such as chimpanzees now and our pre- Neanderthal ancestors in the past. The (ethically relevant) question of how much smaller can be addressed by invoking the anthropic finitude argument, using Bayesian reasonning, whereby it is implausible a posteriori that the total anthropic measure should greatly exceed the measure of the privileged subset to which we happen to belong, as members of a global civilisation that has (recently) entered a climactic phase with a timescale of demographic expansion and technical development short compared with a breeding gen- eration. As well as “economist’s dream” scenarios with continual growth, this finitude argument also excludes “ecologist’s dream” scenarios with long term stabilisation at some permanently sustainable level, but it it does not imply the inevitability of a sudden “doomsday” cut-off. A less catastrophic likelihood is for the population to decline gradually, after passing smoothly through a peak value that is accounted for here as roughly the information content ≈ 1010 of our genome. The finitude requirement limits not just the future but also the past, of which the most recent phase – characterised by memetic rather than genetic evolution – obeyed the Foerster law of hyperbolic population growth. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Imposing Genetic Diversity
IMPOSING GENETIC DIVERSITY Associate Professor Robert Sparrow Australian Research Council Future Fellow Philosophy Program, School of Philosophical, Historical and International Studies and, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Human Bioethics Monash University Victoria 3800 Australia WORKING PAPER: NOT FOR CITATION OR DISTRIBUTION WITHOUT PERMISSION A version of this paper was accepted to The American Journal of Bioethics on October 28, 2014. Please cite that version. ABSTRACT: The idea that a world in which everyone was born “perfect” would be a world in which something valuable was missing often comes up in debates about the ethics of technologies of prenatal testing and Pre-implantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD). This thought plays an important role in the “disability critique” of prenatal testing. However, the idea that human genetic variation is an important good with significant benefits for society at large is also embraced by a wide range of figures writing in the bioethics literature, including some who are notoriously hostile to the idea that we should not select against disability. By developing a number of thought experiments wherein we are to contemplate increasing genetic diversity from a lower baseline in order to secure this value I argue that this powerful intuition is more problematic than is generally recognised, especially where the price of diversity is the well-being of particular individuals. KEYWORDS: PGD; ethics; prenatal testing; disability; diversity; human enhancement 1 IMPOSING GENETIC DIVERSITY INTRODUCTION The idea that a world in which everyone was born “perfect” would be a world in which something valuable — a certain richness that flows from diversity – was missing often comes up in debates about the ethics of technologies of prenatal testing and Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD). -
32026062-MIT.Pdf
K.'-.- A, N E W Q UA D R A N G L E F O R C O R N E L L U N I V E R S I T Y A Thesis.submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement s for the degree of Master of Architec ture at the Massachusetts Inst itute of Technology August 15, 1957 Dean Pie tro Bel lus ch Dean of the School of Archi tecture and P lanning Professor000..eO0 Lawrence*e. *90; * 9B. Anderson Head oythe Departmen ty6 Arc,hi tecture Earl Robert"'F a's burgh Bachelor of Architecture, Cornell University,9 June 1954 323 Westgate West Cambridge 39, Mass. August 14, 1957 Dean Pietro Belluschi School of Architecture and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge 39, Massachusetts Dear De-an Belluschi, In partial fulfillment- of the requirements for the degree of Master of Architecture, I should like to submitimy thesis entitled, "A New Quad- rangle for Cornell University". Sincer y yours, -"!> / /Z /-7xIe~ Earl Robert Fla'nsburgh gr11 D E D I C A T I O N To my wife, Polly A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S The development of this thesis has been aided by many members of the s taff at both M.I.T. &nd Cornell University. W ithou t their able guidance and generous assistance this t hesis would not have been possible. I would li ke to take this opportunity to acknowledge the help of the following: At M. I. T. -
The End of the World: the Science and Ethics of Human Extinction John Leslie
THE END OF THE WORLD ‘If you want to know what the philosophy professors have got to say, John Leslie’s The End of the World is the book to buy. His willingness to grasp the nettles makes me admire philosophers for tackling the big questions.’ THE OBSERVER ‘Leslie’s message is bleak but his touch is light. Wit, after all, is preferable to the desperation which, in the circumstances, seems the only other response.’ THE TIMES ‘John Leslie is one of a very small group of philosophers thoroughly conversant with the latest ideas in physics and cosmology. Moreover, Leslie is able to write about these ideas with wit, clarity and penetrating insight. He has established himself as a thinker who is unafraid to tackle the great issues of existence, and able to sift discerningly through the competing— and frequently bizarre—concepts emanating from fundamental research in the physical sciences. Leslie is undoubtedly the world’s expert on Brandon Carter’s so-called Doomsday Argument—a philosophical poser that is startling yet informative, seemingly outrageous yet intriguing, and ultimately both disturbing and illuminating. With his distinctive and highly readable style, combined with a bold and punchy treatment, Leslie offers a fascinating glimpse of the power of human reasoning to deduce our place in the universe.’ PAUL DAVIES, PROFESSOR OF NATURAL PHILOSOPHY, UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE, AUTHOR OF THE LAST THREE MINUTES ‘This book is vintage John Leslie: it presents a bold and provocative thesis supported by a battery of arguments and references to the most recent advances in science. Leslie is one of the most original and interesting thinkers today. -
Campus Landscape Notebook
CAMPUS LANDSCAPE NOTEBOOK Campus Planning Office May 2005 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Campus Landscape Notebook, 2005, was produced in the Cornell Campus Planning Office under the direction of the University Planner, Minakshi Amundsen. John Ullberg, Landscape Architect, composed text, provided photographs and many graphics. Illiana Ivanova, graphic designer, composed and formatted content and created graphics as well. Andrew Eastlick produced campus base maps. Craig Eagleson provided both technical support and graphic advice. Many others have contributed to the project by editing, researching and advising. Among them are Laurene Gilbert, Ian Colgan, Jim Constantin, Dennis Osika, Frank Popowitch, Peter Karp, Don Rakow, Helen Baker, Craig Eagleson, Phil Cox, Jim Gibbs and Kent Hubbell. Photo Credits p2- Libe Slope White Oak- Robert Barker, Cornell University Photography p5- Aerial view of campus- Kucera International, Inc. All other aerial views except otherwise noted- Jon Reis (www.jonreis.com) CAMPUS LANDSCAPE NOTEBOOK INTRODUCTION S E C T I O N 1 THE CAMPUS LANDSCAPE, PAST TO PRESENT ORIGINS. 9 HISTORY AND EVOLUTION. 11 CHRONOLOGY . 21 FUTURE . 23 THE CAMPUS EXPERIENCE . 25 S E C T I O N 2 LANDSCAPE SYSTEMS AT CORNELL PHYSIOGRAPHY . 31 THE OPEN SPACE SYSTEM . .33 THE WORKING LANDSCAPE. .35 LINKS. .37 GEOMETRY. 39 ARCHITECTURE. .41 WAYFINDING. .45 VIEWS. 47 LANDSCAPE VOCABULARY. 49 LANDMARKS. .55 SUMMARY. .59 INTRODUCTION Landscape has meaning. The quality and meaning of the living and learning experience at Cornell are fundamentally related to the quality of the campus environment. For six years a political prisoner of the communist By any measure Cornell’s is a remarkable landscape - deep wild gorges, government in Laos, the former Laotian official said lakes, cascades, noble buildings set among noble trees, expansive views he was sustained by memories of Cornell Univer- all contribute to a special presence that sets Cornell apart from its peers. -
Campus Map a K L Ar E Th P L R D T No C E En E Riv N X R D a I Od Hl a L O Cornell Buildings
E V I R D N O T E E E V R I T W REMINGTON ROAD R S D N I E T W T N TUARY DRIVE I OUR E NC A SA E E R SIMSBURY DRIV W R E Y T Y D S T N O L A E N R I B R D U R I M SPRUCE LANE V E MEADOWLANERK ROAD T HE ETOPHER LANE P CHRISTRE AR KW A NE Y CAMPUS MAP A K L AR E TH P L R D T NO C E EN E RIV N X R D A I OD HL A L O CORNELL BUILDINGS C W S I H G I S RC H N BI L R E A WOOD DRIV A BIRCH E N L D E A H A N P E O O S T R I N E BUILDINGS OF OTHER DESIGNATION E X T N O E R N N R B E I A P T L L H S D A I A N R R H M E A I H M V P M C ADINAL DRIVE C CARO T E O K N COMSTREETOCK ROAD E CMP ZONES RO R S A T D R R O E E A C E D A T MORE DRIVE L O SYCA P CMP PRECINCTS N D E O E A V A PLACE O S I LI V E W E R N E IV D 2566 R U D N MUNICIPAL BOUNDARIES I D Rhodes House T E ROCKY LANE E P E O R SA T I O ES N T W OR C F AT MA R 20' TOPOGRAPHIC CONTOURS H NO A R I H E STR I R E R G IN ET H E B L C A IR C N LE RIVE E MAPLACEEWOOD D N D 0 250 500 750 R O A D Feet N O R T H E V I R © Campus Planning Office D January 2014 M E OAD L R A ODS BIRCHWOOD DRIVE O S W T KLINE E E Robin Hill Carriage House R T S Y KAY STREET SPUR A K M C I D E A C Y A W N Y U A A U L G Y G A R H R AN Robin Hill A E S H O H HANSHAW ROAD AW P R E A M D O 2514 A AD I D M A G R A O H K H R T R P S I D O R R N A O T A D L A P D U T S A E F O R R E E C S H E CIR B A RK L R R PA A O C D A A K D S G A S U T T Y R O A C C E N E D E T A A O A R AY V H HW E RT N Dyce Lab NO T U Storage I W E E AT STREET S RO 2810E T U P L Dyce Lab A F N Garage D O Dyce Lab R O 2810A A Garden Shed D 2810N Dyce Lab -
The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes Seth D
The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett Global Catastrophic Risk Institute http://sethbaum.com * http://tony-barrett.com * http://gcrinstitute.org In Vicki Bier (editor), The Gower Handbook of Extreme Risk. Farnham, UK: Gower, forthcoming. This version 5 February 2015. Abstract The most extreme risk are those that threaten the entirety of human civilization, known as global catastrophic risks. The very extreme nature of global catastrophes makes them both challenging to analyze and important to address. They are challenging to analyze because they are largely unprecedented and because they involve the entire global human system. They are important to address because they threaten everyone around the world and future generations. Global catastrophic risks also pose some deep dilemmas. One dilemma occurs when actions to reduce global catastrophic risk could harm society in other ways, as in the case of geoengineering to reduce catastrophic climate change risk. Another dilemma occurs when reducing one global catastrophic risk could increase another, as in the case of nuclear power reducing climate change risk while increasing risks from nuclear weapons. The complex, interrelated nature of global catastrophic risk suggests a research agenda in which the full space of risks are assessed in an integrated fashion in consideration of the deep dilemmas and other challenges they pose. Such an agenda can help identify the best ways to manage these most extreme risks and keep human civilization safe. 1. Introduction The most extreme type of risk is the risk of a global catastrophe causing permanent worldwide destruction to human civilization. In the most extreme cases, human extinction could occur. -
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction Robin Hanson∗ Department of Economics George Mason University† August 2007 Abstract Humans have slowly built more productive societies by slowly acquiring various kinds of capital, and by carefully matching them to each other. Because disruptions can disturb this careful matching, and discourage social coordination, large disruptions can cause a “social collapse,” i.e., a reduction in productivity out of proportion to the disruption. For many types of disasters, severity seems to follow a power law distribution. For some of types, such as wars and earthquakes, most of the expected harm is predicted to occur in extreme events, which kill most people on Earth. So if we are willing to worry about any war or earthquake, we should worry especially about extreme versions. If individuals varied little in their resistance to such disruptions, events a little stronger than extreme ones would eliminate humanity, and our only hope would be to prevent such events. If individuals vary a lot in their resistance, however, then it may pay to increase the variance in such resistance, such as by creating special sanctuaries from which the few remaining humans could rebuild society. Introduction “Modern society is a bicycle, with economic growth being the forward momentum that keeps the wheels spinning. As long as the wheels of a bicycle are spinning rapidly, it is a very stable vehicle indeed. But, [Friedman] argues, when the wheels stop - even as the result of economic stagnation, rather than a downturn or a depression - political democracy, individual liberty, and social tolerance are then greatly at risk even in countries where the absolute level of material prosperity remains high....” (DeLong, 2006) ∗For their comments I thank Jason Matheny, the editors, and an anonymous referee. -
1 Introduction to the Enhancement Debate
Notes 1 Introduction to the Enhancement Debate 1. Here, it is taken that the human condition is not the same as human nature. The term ‘human condition’ is not only a simple collection of basic features characterising humans, nor implies an essence that remains identical from birth to death; rather, the term implies something dynamic and in a process of continuous development and negotiation. For more on this see Arendt, The Human Condition (1998), and Carnevale and Battaglia, ‘A Reflexive Approach to Human Enhancement’ (2014). 2. Consider for example that nowadays people sometimes talk about them- selves in terms that in the past we only used for our creations, such as updating and even upgrading ourselves. 3. Here and in what follows, the term ‘individualistic’ will be used as a view resulting from holding the concept of the liberal individual. 4. According to the report it is a ‘non-medical’ typology since there is no spe- cific definition of health involved. However, it is plausible to argue that by including the term ‘therapeutical’, they are indirectly referring back to a biomedical-based definition. 5. In the rest of this book, science and technology will be referred to inter- changeably, even though it is acknowledged that there are differences between them. For the purpose of this work it is enough to understand that both science and technology have affected and shaped the material condi- tion of our lives as well as the way we understand ourselves as humans and social beings. 6. Here, the term ‘nanoscale’ is used to refer to the nanometre scale. -
Names in Multi-Lingual, -Cultural and -Ethic Contact
Oliviu Felecan, Romania 399 Romanian-Ukrainian Connections in the Anthroponymy of the Northwestern Part of Romania Oliviu Felecan Romania Abstract The first contacts between Romance speakers and the Slavic people took place between the 7th and the 11th centuries both to the North and to the South of the Danube. These contacts continued through the centuries till now. This paper approaches the Romanian – Ukrainian connection from the perspective of the contemporary names given in the Northwestern part of Romania. The linguistic contact is very significant in regions like Maramureş and Bukovina. We have chosen to study the Maramureş area, as its ethnic composition is a very appropriate starting point for our research. The unity or the coherence in the field of anthroponymy in any of the pilot localities may be the result of the multiculturalism that is typical for the Central European area, a phenomenon that is fairly reflected at the linguistic and onomastic level. Several languages are used simultaneously, and people sometimes mix words so that speakers of different ethnic origins can send a message and make themselves understood in a better way. At the same time, there are common first names (Adrian, Ana, Daniel, Florin, Gheorghe, Maria, Mihai, Ştefan) and others borrowed from English (Brian Ronald, Johny, Nicolas, Richard, Ray), Romance languages (Alessandro, Daniele, Anne, Marie, Carlos, Miguel, Joao), German (Adolf, Michaela), and other languages. *** The first contacts between the Romance natives and the Slavic people took place between the 7th and the 11th centuries both to the North and to the South of the Danube. As a result, some words from all the fields of onomasiology were borrowed, and the phonological system was changed, once the consonants h, j and z entered the language.