Model Portfolio

2012

EQUITIES 13 March

STRATEGY

Model Portfolio

ECB and risk premium…

OVERWEIGHT NEUTRAL UNDERWEIGHT . February was for the second month in a row quite strong for BES Banco Popular EDP equity holders worldwide. Performances were close to mid Telefónica Banif REN single digit in most markets, but Topix, low double digit and Ibex slightly negative (please see tables on pages 11 and 12). Portugal Telecom Bankinter Brisa The PSI20 went up 4.8% mainly due to Banks, Retail, and Zon Multimedia BCP Jerónimo Martins Oils, as Utilities underperformed. Commodities went up 3.2% Sonaecom ESFG Altri in dollars while gold was almost flat; Brent went up 10.5%. Novabase BPI Portucel The euro rose 2.2% vs. the USD and 8.5% vs. the Japanese EDP Renováveis Iberdrola Cimpor currency. German 10y yields were almost flat, 10y Treasuries Sonae Impresa Mota Engil increased by 17bp and JGB’s were flat; Semapa Cofina Sonae Industria Indra . In February, the “Conservative Portfolio” outperformed the Galp Energia Sonae Capital PSI20 by 29bp, mainly due to an overweight in BES. Year to Inapa date it is outperforming by 48bp. Regarding the “Aggressive Soares da Costa Portfolio”, it outperformed the PSI20 by 219bp. Year to date it is outperforming the PSI20 by 263bp; Teixeira Duarte Martifer Ibersol . The Equity Risk Premium in the Euro area dropped by 125bp All neutral stocks are not covered, under review, out of PSI20 or restricted since de beginning of September, when the highest level on

110.0 our data base was recorded and 88bp since mid December, in the US the ERP dropped by 35bp; being positive it was not astonishing, for instance between Lehman’s collapse and 100.0 April 2009, when Q1 was already in full swing, ERP’s dropped by more than 200bp. So the ERP should continue to come 90.0 down, assuming that ECB keeps its dovish bias. The recent increase on inflation estimates and the unilateral decision of Spanish prime minister to no comply with the deficit target, 80.0 places ECB in a less comfortable position. A change on the market’s perception about ECB behaviour could derail the downward trend on risk premium, triggering a correction on 70.0 the equity markets;

60.0 . Regarding the “Conservative Portfolio”, we reduced the overweight in BES and Semapa, increased the underweight in 02/2011 03/2011 04/2011 05/2011 06/2011 07/2011 08/2011 09/2011 10/2011 11/2011 12/2011 01/2012 02/2012 REN and moved EDPR to a small overweight (plus 25bp). We PSI20 Eurostoxx

also included Telefonica in the portfolio

Av. José Malhoa, Nº 27 1099-010 Lisboa António Seladas, CFA + 351 21 0037826 Telephone +351 21 721 8000 [email protected] Facsimile + 351 21 721 8000

All prices are those of the end of the trading session unless otherwise indicated. For important Disclosure and Disclaimer go to the second last page.

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Performance Overview

February was for the second month in a row quite strong for equity holders worldwide. Performances were close to mid single digit in most markets, but Ibex (-0.5%) and the Japanese markets (Topix +10.7%). The Euro Stoxx rose 4.3%, DAX 6.1% and CAC40 4.7%. Regarding main US indexes, the S&P500 went up 4.1%, Nasdaq100 6.3% and Russel 2000 (a small cap US index) 2.3%. Emerging markets measured by the MCSI in dollars increased 5.9%. The CRB, the commodity price index, went up 3.2%; Brent 10.5% and gold dropped slightly, 0.5%. The Euro went up 2.2% vs. the USD and 8.5% vs. the JPY. German 10y yields rose 3bp to 1.82%; 10y Treasuries rose 17bp to 1.97% and Japanese JGB’s were flat at 0.97%.

Best & worst performers (L) Best & worst contributions to the model portfolio (R)

Source: Mib

In February the PSI20, increased 4.8%. Major contributors were Banks 250bp (BES 140bp and BCP 90bp); Retail 160bp (JM plus 150bp) and Oils 110bp. Utilities removed 100bp. In February the “Conservative Portfolio” outperformed the PSI20 by 29bp, it was mainly due to an overweight in BES. Year to date it’s outperforming the PSI20 by 48bp. Regarding the “Aggressive Portfolio”, in February, the portfolio outperformed the PSI20 by 219bp. It was mainly due to overweight in Semapa and Sonae Industria. Year to date it’s outperforming the PSI20 by 263bp. “Mib Aggressive Portfolio” is made up of the five stocks with the highest upside potential of our coverage universe. It is equal weighted and rebalanced on Friday’s close, 5 stocks; 20% each. For more information, namely performance attribution, please see “Weekly” released on Fridays.

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Mib Aggressive Portfolio Return vs. PSI20 1 Month 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Portfolio 6.99% 4.20% -36.48% -7.28% 72. 08% -43.66% -2.49% PSI20 Index 4.80% 1.57% -27.60% -10.34% 33.47% -51.29% 16.27% Ga in /Lo ss 2.19% 2.63% -8.88% 3.06% 38.61% 7.64% -18.76% Source: Mib

Return since inception (30th July 2004)

300% Portfolio PSI20 250%

200%

150%

100%

50% Ago-04 Nov-05 Fev-07 Mai-08 Jul-09 Out-10 Jan-12

Source: Mib

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Last Month Over Model Portfolio Benchmark Prices Price Performance (Under) 12.02.29 12.01.31 12.02.29 12.01.31 12.02.29 12.01.31 Change Contribution Deviation

Benchmark PSI 20 5,580.52 5,325.05 4.8% Banking 75 11.5% 9.5% 10.4% 8.7% 26.42% 0.00% 0bp Banco Popular 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.08 3.29 -6.35% 0.00% 0bp Bankinter 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.64 5.12 -9.38% 0.00% 0bp Banif 0 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.33 0.29 13.40% 0.04% 0bp BCP 0 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% 0.17 0.14 25.93% 0.90% 0bp BES 75 5.8% 4.6% 4.8% 3.9% 1.66 1.26 31.35% 1.45% 20bp ESFG 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.60 5.60 0.00% 0.00% 0bp BPI 0 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.55 0.48 14.38% 0.16% 0bp Telecoms 100 14.5% 15.1% 14.1% 14.1% 0.65% 0.00% 0bp Telefónica 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.81 13.33 -3.90% 0.00% 0bp Portugal Telecom 25 10.4% 10.7% 10.4% 10.4% 3.88 3.80 2.13% 0.23% -1bp Zon Multimedia 25 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 3.0% 2.33 2.46 -5.36% -0.17% -3bp Sonaecom 50 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 1.25 1.20 4.25% 0.05% 0bp Media 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0bp Media Capital 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.50 1.37 9.49% 0.00% 0bp Impresa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.52 0.47 10.64% 0.00% 0bp Cofina 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.53 0.65 -18.46% 0.00% 0bp Technology 50 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0bp Indra 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.54 10.07 -5.18% 0.00% 0bp Novabase 50 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.13 2.08 2.40% 0.01% -1bp Utilities -100 23.0% 25.1% 24.1% 26.1% -3.86% 0.00% 0bp Iberdrola 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.44 4.50 -1.29% 0.00% 0bp EDP -25 16.8% 18.0% 17.0% 18.2% 2.19 2.23 -1.84% -0.33% 2bp EDP Renováveis -25 5.1% 6.0% 5.5% 6.3% 3.91 4.40 -11.14% -0.67% 4bp REN -50 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 2.10 2.07 1.69% 0.02% 2bp Motorways -50 2.6% 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% 5.31% 0.00% 0bp Brisa -50 2.6% 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% 2.36 2.24 5.31% 0.14% 0bp Conglomerate 100 5.0% 4.9% 4.0% 3.9% 5.64% 0.00% 0bp Sonae 50 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 0.46 0.44 4.79% 0.13% 0bp Semapa 50 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 5.63 5.27 6.83% 0.15% 1bp Sonae Capital 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.22 0.22 0.00% 0.00% 0bp Retail -75 18.3% 17.7% 18.3% 18.4% 8.58% 0.00% 0bp Jerónimo Martins -75 18.3% 17.7% 18.3% 18.4% 13.86 12.77 8.58% 1.52% -3bp Industrials -100 6.0% 6.0% 6.9% 7.0% 3.82% 0.00% 0bp Sonae Industria 75 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.70 0.63 12.30% 0.13% 6bp Altri -75 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.15 1.13 1.68% 0.00% 2bp Portucel -25 2.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.01 1.81 11.16% 0.23% -2bp INAPA 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.18 0.14 28.57% 0.00% 0bp Cimpor -75 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 3.4% 5.09 5.15 -1.18% -0.03% 4bp Construction -25 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 13.68% 0.00% 0bp Mota-Engil -25 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1.18 1.04 13.68% 0.02% -2bp Soares da Costa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.30 0.32 -6.25% 0.00% 0bp Teixeira Duarte 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.27 0.20 35.00% 0.00% 0bp Martifer 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.07 1.12 -4.46% 0.00% 0bp Food & Beverage 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0bp Ibersol 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.50 4.05 0.00% 0bp Oil & Gas 25 18.6% 18.4% 18.7% 18.2% 0.00% 0bp Galp Energia 25 18.6% 18.4% 18.7% 18.2% 13.09 12.34 6.12% 1.13% 0bp TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 5.09% 29bp 4

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Investment Strategy

ECB’s behaviour for the last 3 months, through the LTRO’s (Long-Term Refinancing Operation) and its relaxation of collateral requirements had a major outcome in the reduction on the risk premiums. Since the beginning of September, when the ERP (Equity Risk Premium) in the Eurostoxx reached the highest level on our data base, 8.39%, it dropped 125bp and since mid December it dropped 88bp. In the US the performance was not so good it went down 35bp since the beginning of September and roughly the same from mid December 2011. So and despite a positive performance, it was quiet modest in the US market, even in the Euro area it was not astonishing. For instance, in the US, the ERP went down by more than 200bp, between the highest levels recorded in October 2008, immediately after Lehman’s bankruptcy and April 2009, when Q1 was already in full swing. In the Euro Area the outcome was pretty similar close to 200bp reduction in the ERP. So we shouldn’t be surprised if ERP continues to come down, actually the surprise was exactly the modest performance of the ERP up to now. Having said that it really depends on ECB behaviour, from now on, as a more hawkish bias could easily derail ERP’s downward trend. So the upwards revisions of inflation in the quarterly update of the ECB staff’s plus the unilateral declaration of Mr. Rajoy that it will not meet the 2012 target of 4.4% budget deficit after reviewing upwards 2011 deficit by 2.5% to 8% are the kind of things that place ECB’s members in a less comfortable position. So and despite risk premiums could come down by more 100bp, meaning, ceteris paribus, more 20% to 30% in the US and Euro area equity markets, they just could stay at current levels or beginning to rise again, pretty much depending on ECB’s view.

ERP S&P 500 8%

-1% Fev-85 Fev-88 Fev-91 Fev-94 Fev-97 Fev-00 Fev-03 Fev-06 Fev-09 Fev-12

ERP -1STD +1STD

Source: Mib, FactSet

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

ERP EURO STOXX 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% Set-01 Set-02 Set-03 Set-04 Set-05 Set-06 Set-07 Set-08 Set-09 Set-10 Set-11

ERP Implicit ERP -1 STD ERP +1STD Long Term Average

Source: Mib, FactSet

Equity Risk Premium

12-03-2012 ActualStandard Deviation Mov. Average Long Term Valuation * Index Figure -1STD +1STD (18months) Average Level

S&P500 6,78% 4,21% 6,99% 5,60% 3,20% Neutral 1.371

Eurostoxx 7,13% 5,61% 7,85% 6,73% 4,52% Neutral 249

DAX 6,87% 5,05% 7,90% 6,48% 5,00% Neutral 6.901 TOPIX 4,73% 4,58% 5,76% 5,17% 4,28% Neutral 845 Source: Mib, FactSet

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Regarding our “Conservative Portfolio”, we reduced the overweight in BES and Semapa by 25bp each and increased the underweight in REN by 25bp. We raised EDPR to a small overweight, plus 25bp and included Telefonica with plus 25bp.

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Model Portfolio

Over Model Price Target Upside (Under) PortfolioBenchmark 12.02.29 YE12 (€) (Downside) Benchmark PSI 20 5,580.52 Banking 50 10.9% 10.4% Banco Popular (2) 0 0.0% 0.0% 3.08 Bankinter 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.64 5.10 9.9% Banif 0 0.4% 0.4% 0.33 n.a. BCP (1) 0 4.0% 4.0% 0.17 n.a. BES 50 5.3% 4.8% 1.66 2.25 35.6% ESFG 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.60 n.a. BPI (2) 0 1.2% 1.2% 0.55 Telecoms 125 15.3% 14.1% Telefónica 25 0.3% 0.0% 12.81 21.00 63.9% Portugal Telecom 25 10.7% 10.4% 3.88 6.30 62.3% Zon Multimedia 25 3.1% 2.9% 2.33 3.70 58.8% Sonaecom 50 1.2% 0.7% 1.25 2.10 67.7% Media 0 0.0% 0.0% Media Capital 0 0.0% 0.0% 1.50 2.10 40.0% Impresa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.52 0.31 -40.8% Cofina 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.53 0.49 -6.6% Technology 50 0.5% 0.0% Indra 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.54 13.90 45.6% Novabase 50 0.5% 0.0% 2.13 4.00 87.8% Utilities -75 23.4% 24.1% Iberdrola 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.44 5.90 32.8% EDP -25 16.8% 17.0% 2.19 3.10 41.6% EDP Renováveis 25 5.8% 5.5% 3.91 6.00 53.5% REN -75 0.8% 1.6% 2.10 2.40 14.3% Motorways -50 2.6% 3.1% Brisa -50 2.6% 3.1% 2.36 3.15 33.5% Conglomerate 75 4.8% 4.0% Sonae 50 2.8% 2.3% 0.46 0.92 101.5% Semapa 25 2.0% 1.8% 5.63 8.80 56.3% Sonae Capital 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.22 0.28 27.3% Retail -75 17.5% 18.3% Jerónimo Martins -75 17.5% 18.3% 13.86 15.10 8.9% Industrials -100 5.9% 6.9% Sonae Industria 75 1.1% 0.3% 0.70 1.60 127.6% Altri -75 0.2% 1.0% 1.15 1.20 4.4% Portucel -25 2.1% 2.4% 2.01 2.45 21.8% INAPA 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.18 na Cimpor -75 2.4% 3.2% 5.09 6.05 18.9% Construction -25 0.2% 0.5% Mota-Engil -25 0.2% 0.5% 1.18 1.45 22.9% Soares da Costa 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.30 na Teixeira Duarte 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.27 na Martifer (2) 0 0.0% 0.0% 1.07 Food & Beverage 0 0.0% 0.0% Ibersol 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.50 na Oil & Gas 25 19.0% 18.7% Galp Energia 25 19.0% 18.7% 13.09 18.15 38.7% TOTAL 0 100.0% 100.0% (1) We do not have a recommendation on BCP as Mib is fully owned by BCP Group (2) Under Revision

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Notes

Our Model Portfolio is benchmarked to the PSI20. This portfolio is actively managed, that is, there might be a change of weight in every stock at the end of each month, which will be monitored and fully justified in our monthly Model Portfolio updates. The differences may reflect alterations in recommendations due to changes in the companies’ fundamentals, target prices being hit, or over- emotional stock prices.

Limitations on performance derive from the fact that we only change the portfolio once a month (at month end). This implies that some value will be lost, as changes in recommendations and price targets throughout a month are not fully captured. However, the main intention of the portfolio is not to mimic day-to-day asset management, but only to give regular indications on our investment strategy.

Furthermore, as our Model Portfolio is only revised once a month, at the end of the month, we fail to capture and build upon index changes and changes on our valuations done in between the end of the month and the exact date of the report.

Because our recommendations on specific stocks are medium term and our portfolio is valid for 1 month, we are not 100% constrained to fully replicate recommendations in our Master List. Our overweight and underweight positions reflect not only stock fundamentals but also our view on market performance and short-term events that may affect stocks. Furthermore, because we are benchmarking the main Portuguese index, we do not feel compelled to include all our small caps with positive recommendations, but will only include the ones that are stock picks or that we believe will clearly outperform the index within the month.

Regarding not covered stocks we are assuming a Neutral weighting.

As a final note, we do not issue a recommendation and price target on BCP and will always maintain a neutral weighting on the stock.

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Latest Target Risk Trnvr (€mn) M Cap Change (%) EPS P / E EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Div Yield P/BV 2012/02/29 Upsd Rating Pr (€) YE12 Rating 3m 6m (€ mn) Week 1M 3M 12M YT D 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2011E PSI 20 5,581 - - 49,634 -0.31 4.8 0.8 -30.2 1.6 Financials 56.2 49.2 12,494 -1.8 2.4 11.1 -43.2 -0.2 ------Banco Popular (3) 3.08 - - - - 22.7 21.0 5,500 -0.6 -6.4 -2.8 -29.7 -12.5 0.41 0.35 0.31 9.5 ------3.9%-- Bankinter 4.64 5.10 9.9% Neutral High 7.5 6.7 2,213 -6.9 -9.4 11.2 -2.9 -2.3 0.32 0.38 0.30 13.1 12.7 16.3 ------3.0% 3.2% 0.7 BCP (1) 0.17 - - - - 15.2 13.0 1,225 2.4 25.9 33.9 -71.6 25.0 ------BES 1.66 2.25 35.6% Buy High 9.6 7.2 2,424 -1.3 31.4 45.3 -49.4 22.9 0.41 -0.06 0.14 7.0 loss 11.5 ------4.4% 0.0% 0.4 BPI (3) 0.55 - - - - 0.6 0.7 544 -4.7 14.4 15.8 -57.9 14.1 0.19 0.13 0.15 6.7 ------0.0%-- Telecoms 484.5 750.2 63,123 -2.1 -3.5 -8.6 -32.0 -4.7 - - - 5.4 13.8 8.8 2.6 2.12.17.27.0 6.1 8.7% 10.2% 2.4 Telefónica 12.81 21.00 63.9% Buy Medium 470.4 737.2 58,465 -1.9 -3.9 -8.4 -30.4 -4.3 2.25 0.90 1.50 7.5 14.9 8.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 7.3 7.2 6.2 8.3% 9.7% 2.7 Portugal Telecom 3.88 6.30 62.3% Buy Medium 12.8 11.7 3,479 -6.0 2.1 -15.6 -51.1 -12.8 6.60 0.51 0.44 1.2 8.7 9.0 2.7 1.9 1.8 6.9 5.4 5.2 16.5% 14.6% 1.0 Zon Multimedia 2.33 3.70 58.8% Buy Medium 1.1 1.0 720 -4.9 -5.4 8.3 -38.7 0.3 0.12 0.10 0.10 28.9 23.1 25.7 2.2 1.8 1.8 6.3 5.0 4.9 4.7% 6.9% 3.3 Sonaecom 1.25 2.10 67.7% Buy High 0.2 0.3 459 0.8 4.2 2.7 -11.6 3.0 0.11 0.17 0.13 12.0 7.3 9.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.7% 4.8% 0.5 Media 0.0 0.1 268 4.9 2.7 21.6 -49.3 -9.4 - - - 23.4 loss 15.1 1. 7 1.11.211.79.2 8.5 1.1% 2.9% 1.0 Impresa 0.52 0.31 -40.8% Sell High 0.0 0.0 87 8.3 10.6 23.8 -51.4 10.6 ------Media Capital (2) 1.50 2.10 - - - 0.0 0.0 127 9.5 9.5 11.9 -55.9 -9.1 0.15 - - 27.3 - - 1. 8 - - 11.1 - - 1.9% - - Cofina 0.53 0.49 -6.6% Reduce High 0.0 0.0 54 -8.6 -18.5 47.2 -13.1 -30.3 0.05 0.08 0.07 14.1 6.2 7.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 9.6 7.2 7.5 1.4% 4.1% 3.5 Technology Indra 9.54 13.90 45.6% Buy High 10.4 11.1 1,566 -13.2 -5.2 -8.6 -32.3 -3.0 1.15 1.13 1.10 11.1 nm 9.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 7.4 6.9 6.4 5.3% 5.7% 1.5 Novabase 2.13 4.00 87.8% Buy High 0.0 0.0 67 -1.4 2.4 25.3 -30.4 1.9 0.42 0.05 0.22 7.0 nm 9.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.6 4.5 3.7 4.5% 1.4% 0.7 Utilities 188.8 198.8 39,071 -4.4 -2.3 -9.4 -26.2 -8.9 - - - 11.8 10.0 9.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 8.5 8.1 7. 7- 5.0% 5.7% 0.9 Iberdrola 4.44 5.90 32.8% Buy Low 172.3 181.6 26,531 -4.8 -1.3 -10.4 -29.7 -8.2 0.44 0.49 0.50 13.05 10.0 8.9 2.1 1. 9 1.7 8.5 7.7 6.9 5.8% 6.8% 0.8 EDP 2.19 3.10 41.6% Buy Low 13.5 14.5 8,008 -1.9 -1.8 -8.0 -20.3 -8.4 0.28 0.29 0.29 8.87 8.1 7.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 8.0 7.7 7.5 6.9% 7.7% 1.0 EDP Renováveis 3.91 6.00 53.5% Buy Low 2.7 2.5 3,411 -7.7 -11.1 -9.0 -10.1 -17.3 0.09 0.12 0.16 47.2 38.4 25.5 8.2 7.3 6.4 11.0 10.2 8.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.6 REN 2.10 2.40 14.3% Buy Low 0.3 0.3 1,121 -0.9 1.7 5.1 -16.8 -0.5 0.21 0.23 0.27 12.5 9.3 8.0 3.7 3.8 4.4 8.3 7.8 7.7 6.5% 6.4% 1.1 Motorways Brisa 2.36 3.15 33.5% Buy Low 2.5 2.7 1,415 -2.1 5.3 -8.2 -54.8 -7.3 1.30 0.14 0.16 4.0 18.1 14.6 8.1 6.1 6.4 11.5 8.8 9.2 5.5% 11.2% 0.7 Conglomerates 1.1 1.3 1,639 -1.1 5.6 4.3 ------Sonae 0.46 0.92 101.5% Buy Medium 0.8 0.8 918 0.4 4.8 4.1 -43.9 0.0 0.08 0.05 0.05 9.3 8.7 8.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 11.1 9.3 6.2 4.2% 7.2% 0.6 Semapa 5.63 8.80 56.3% Buy High 0.3 0.4 666 -3.1 6.8 4.6 -35.8 4.8 1.07 1.02 1.00 7.7 5.2 5.9 1.6 1.1 1.0 5.8 4.7 4.2 3.0% 4.6% 0.6 Sonae Capital 0.22 0.28 27.3% Buy High 0.0 0.0 55 0.0 0.0 4.8 -47.6 -18.5 -0.02 0.03 -0.07 loss 8.0 loss 2.1 2.2 2.3 60.0 601.3 loss 0.0% 0.0% 0.2 Retail Jerónimo Martins 13.86 15.10 8.9% Neutral Medium 7.6 9.1 8,722 6.0 8.6 2.4 19.3 8.4 0.47 0.56 0.62 4.8 23.0 21.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 12.6 13.2 11.7 0.0% 2.2% 8.2 Industrials 1.6 2.0 5,314 0.6 2.8 2.5 -10.4 -0.1 ------4.4% - - Sonae Industria 0.70 1.60 127.6% Buy High 0.1 0.1 98 0.4 12.3 13.8 -59.8 10.7 -0.53 -0.41 -0.23 loss loss loss 0.8 0.6 0.6 14.6 11.2 8.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.4 Altri 1.15 1.20 4.4% Neutral High 0.2 0.2 236 -0.3 1.7 5.4 -32 -4.3 0.65 0.12 0.04 2.6 10.3 30.3 2.2 2.0 2.3 6.8 8.4 9.7 0.0% 1.7% 1.7 Portucel 2.01 2.45 21.8% Buy Medium 0.3 0.5 1,544 1.4 11.2 11.8 -21.6 9.4 0.27 0.24 0.25 8.3 7.6 8.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 6.3 5.6 5.1 6.9% 7.8% 1.1 Cimpor 5.09 6.05 18.9% Buy Medium 1.0 1.3 3,420 -0.2 -1.2 -2.1 1.5 -4.3 0.36 0.31 0.32 13.9 17.0 15.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 4.1% 3.8% 1.5 Construction 0.2 0.2 348 -2.0 7.4 8.0 -35.8 9.0 ------Mota-Engil 1.18 1.45 22.9% Buy High 0.2 0.2 241 -2.9 13.7 12.5 -40.4 14.0 0.18 0.16 0.15 9.7 6.5 8.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 8.2 6.7 6.4 6.0% 7.7% 0.5 Martifer (3) 1.07 - - - - 0.0 0.0 107 0.0 -4.5 -0.9 -22.5 -0.9 -0.55 - - loss - - 1.0 - - 10.0 - - 0.0% - - Oil & Gas Galp Energia 13.09 18.15 38.7% Buy High 14.9 17.3 10,855 1.6 6.1 5.3 -13.2 15.0 0.37 0.27 0.36 38.9 42.3 36.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 17.4 18.9 13.8 1.4% 1.8% 4.1 (1) We do not hav e a recommendation on BCP, as Mib is a registered trademark of BCP; (2) Unrated due to low free-float; (3) Under Rev ision

Millennium investment banking Model Portfolio 13 March 2012

Disclosures

. This report has been prepared on behalf of Millennium investment banking (Mib), a registered trademark of Banco Comercial Português, S.A. (Millennium bcp). . Millennium bcp is regulated by Comissão de Mercado de Valores Mobiliários. . Recommendations: Buy means more than 10% absolute return; Neutral means between 0% and +10% absolute return; Reduce means between -10% and 0% absolute return; Sell means less than -10% absolute return. . Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is current year-end or next year-end. . Risk is defined by the analyst’s view in a qualitative way (High, Medium, Low). . Usually we update our models and price targets in between 6 and 18 months. . Millennium bcp prohibits its analysts and members of their households to own any shares of the companies covered by them. . BCP group may have business relationships with the companies mentioned in this report. . Millennium bcp, expects to receive or intends to seek compensations for investment banking services from the companies mentioned in this report. . The views expressed above, accurately reflect personal views of the authors. They have not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. There were not any agreements between the companies covered and the analysts regarding the recommendation. . Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of BCP group, which includes investment-banking revenues. . BCP group has more than 2% of EDP. . BCP group has more than 2% of Cimpor. . BCP group has more than 2% of Sonaecom. . BCP group was chosen to evaluate EDP regarding the 8th stage of the privatization process. . BCP group was chosen to evaluate REN regarding the 2nd stage of the privatization process. . A member of the Executive Board of Directors of Millennium bcp is member of the General and Supervisory Board of EDP - Energias de Portugal, SA. . Banco Millennium bcp Investimento, S.A. (merged into Millennium bcp) was chosen as a joint global coordinator of the Initial Public Offering of EDP Renováveis. . Banco Millennium bcp Investimento, S.A. (merged into Millennium bcp) was part of the consortium, as a Co-Leader, of BES rights issue, done in April 2009. . Recommendations on Millennium bcp covered companies (%) Recommendation Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Jun-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Dec-08 Dec-07 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-04 Buy 69% 71% 68% 93% 76% 79% 79% 77% 78% 63% 54% 41% 37% 30% 63% Neutral 10% 4% 11% 0% 14% 14% 7% 7% 4% 15% 4% 27% 11% 40% 6% Reduce 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 7% 0% 0% 21% 5% 6% Sell 3% 7% 7% 0% 0% 4% 4% 3% 0% 4% 0% 14% 16% 5% 0% Unrated/Under Revision 14% 14% 14% 7% 10% 4% 11% 13% 11% 11% 42% 18% 16% 20% 25% Performance 5% -3% -7% -20% -6% 2% 7% -11% -6% 33% -51% 16% 30% 13% na PSI 20 5,581 5,325 5,494 5,891 7,324 7,753 7,588 7,066 7,927 8,464 6,341 13,019 11,198 8,619 7,600 DISCLAIMER This information is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to enter into any particular deal or contract. It consists of data compiled by or of opinions or estimates from Banco Comercial Português, S.A. and no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This information is merely an auxiliary means of analysis to be used by its recipients, who will be solely responsible for its use, including for any losses or damages that may, directly or indirectly, derive from it. Its reproduction is not allowed without permission from the BCP group. The data herein disclosed are merely indicative and reflect the market conditions prevailing on the date they have been collected. Thus, its accuracy and timing must absolutely be confirmed before its usage. Any alteration in the market conditions shall imply the introduction of changes in this report. This information / these opinions may be altered without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas of BCP group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

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Equity Research +351 21 115 6220 António Seladas, CFA (Head) Fundamental Analysis Alexandra Delgado, CFA (Telecoms and IT) João Flores (Media and Retail) João Mateus (Industrials and Utilities) Rita Silva (Banks) Vanda Mesquita (Utilities and Oil&Gas) Market Analysis Ramiro Loureiro Sónia Martins Telma Santos Publishing Sónia Primo

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