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SVI Foresight Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad SVI Foresight Volume 4, Number 2 February 2018 Compiled & Edited by: S. Sadia Kazmi Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad SVI Foresight Volume 4, Number 2 February 2018 Compiled &Edited by: S. Sadia Kazmi Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this edition are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Strategic Vision Institute. Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) is an autonomous, multidisciplinary and non-partisan institution, established in January 2013. It is a non-governmental and non-commercial organization, administered by a Board of Governors (General Body) supervised under a Chairperson and administered by a Management Committee headed by a President/Executive Director. SVI aims to project strategic foresight on issues of national and international import through dispassionate, impartial and independent research, analyses and studies. The current spotlight of the SVI is on the national security, regional and international peace and stability, strategic studies, nuclear non- proliferation, arms control, and strategic stability, nuclear safety and security and energy studies. SVI Foresight SVI Foresight is a monthly electronic journal. It has a multi-disciplinary perspective highlighting on the contemporary strategic and security studies. The Journal is envisioned to be a collection of policy-oriented articles written by its Research Associates, Visiting Faculty and professional experts. The objective is to provide the readership with a concise all-round and real-time policy oriented discourse on contemporary strategic regional and international developments, highlighting their relevance to Pakistan. Contents Editor’s Note ................................................................................................................................................. 1 India’s Unmanned Armed Vehicles (UAV) Capabilities Ahyousha Khan ......................................................................................................................................... 3 India’s Quest for Ballistic Missile Defence Shield Qura tul ain Hafeez ................................................................................................................................... 5 A Vacuum Russia Finds Hard to Fill Babar Ali .................................................................................................................................................... 7 Trump’s State of the Union Address and Pakistan Ubaid Ahmed ............................................................................................................................................ 9 A Look at Yemen Conflict Nisar Ahmed............................................................................................................................................ 11 Dynamics of Kashmir Conflict Asma Khalid ............................................................................................................................................. 13 India’s Nuclear Program and Non-Proliferation Regime Beenish Altaf ........................................................................................................................................... 15 Pakistan and Non-Proliferation Treaty: Concerns and Challenges Asma Khalid ............................................................................................................................................. 17 CPEC: Conflict Management Qura tul ain Hafeez ................................................................................................................................. 19 Nuclear Deterrence and Doctrines in South Asia Ahyousha Khan ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Crisis in Turkey-US Relations Nisar Ahmed............................................................................................................................................ 23 Growing Employment Opportunities under CPEC Sadia Kazmi ............................................................................................................................................. 25 Pakistan: Condemning Indo-US Belligerence Ubaid Amed ............................................................................................................................................ 27 Pak-Russia Defence Ties: A Paradigm Shift in Defence Cooperation Babar Ali .................................................................................................................................................. 29 CPEC and National Development Sadia Kazmi ............................................................................................................................................. 31 JCPOA and IAEA Verification Beenish Altaf ........................................................................................................................................... 33 Editor’s Note SVI Foresight for the month of February touches upon some extremely significant issues. An insightful take on India’s nuclear program and its impact on the non-proliferation regime lets the reader know how the Indian nuclear program is taking full advantage of the 2008 Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) decision under the US initiative to exempt New Delhi from the restrictions on the supply of nuclear fuel and equipment to non-NPT countries. In this regard, the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement is an active exemplar that is undermining the global non- proliferation regime. Another article further elaborates on the same debate and looks at the challenges and concerns that Pakistan tends to face in the context of non-proliferation treaty as both Pakistan and India are facing international pressure to join the NPT. The treaty itself is quite discriminatory as it divides the sates into NWS and NNWS. The writer in this article raises pertinent questions as to why the reason and motive for the NNWS to defend them are any less significant than those of the NWS. Hence why should the pressure be on the NNWS only? The credibility of the NNWS was being doubted by the very same states who themselves were guilty of lapses in their own security systems as well as nuclear arms buildup; US and USSR Cold War incidents like Cuban missile crisis. How can one be sure that the history would not repeat itself? If the international security could be endangered once it could be brought to that point again. The readers will find the analysis engaging and quite apt. Similarly, the state of nuclear deterrence and doctrines in South Asia has been examined in another article included in this issue. While it is believed that there could be many reasons behind the pursuit of nuclear weapons, but nuclear deterrence vis-à-vis one’s enemy is and has always been the main reason motivating enough to build nuclear weapons. The writer convincingly maintains that deterrence enables two nuclear rivals to avoid war due to fear of unacceptable damage to one’s vital interests. It relies upon the understanding of the threat from nuclear weapons in case of an attack. The application of this idea is evaluated in the South Asian setting. The changing international political environment brings forth the emergence of crisis in Turkey-US relations. The same has been commented upon in yet another article. The decades long partnership of the US with one of its major NATO allies, i.e. Turkey, has been under serious 1 strain for some time now due to growing divergence in policies and collision of interests of the two countries in the conflict ridden geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The readers will find this article quite informative with strong analysis elaborating on various dimensions of the emerging rift between the two allies. Another article sheds light on the increasingly improved relations between Russia and Pakistan specifically in terms of defence cooperation. While the other commentary included in this issue of the SVI Foresight sketches a detailed overview of growing tensions in Pak-US relations. It is interesting to see that Pakistan is able to condemn the Indo-US belligerence for its national security and sovereignty. Indian atrocities in occupied Kashmir have also been addressed in yet another article. February is the month when Pakistan observes Kashmir day in solidarity with the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The readers will find this article timely and informative. Furthermore, the CPEC is opening new vistas of development within Pakistan hence there is a need to address any hindrance or possible conflicting situations. The same has been suggested in an article where the conflict management related to the CPEC project has been effectively proposed through various possible options. One can stay hopeful that the CPEC will truly be a game changer, positively contributing to all the development sectors of Pakistan and ultimately improving its socio- economic credentials in the region as well as at the global level. It is hoped that the issue will help readers in staying updated with the current political environment and they will find the analyses useful. The SVI Foresight team invites and highly encourages the contributions from the security and strategic community in form of opinion based short commentaries on contemporary political, security and strategic issues. Any suggestions for further improvements are welcome at our contact address. Please see here
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