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Tomorrow's Technology Band 3 / 2018 Band 3 / 2018 New technologies have always influenced societies. They have not only entailed advantages. Revolutionary technologies have been misused and, in this way, impacted means and methods used in armed conflict, thus changing strategies as well as tac- tics. Especially in the fields of nano- and biotechnology as well as robotics experts are expecting new upcoming technological Tomorrow’s Technology developments that might influence threat scenarios. Societies spearheading these developments will also play a A Double-Edged Sword leading part in global security policy. Competition has already started on a global level and will heat up in the future. This book outlines future challenges regarding the technolog- ical complexity of the individual research areas of nano- and biotechnology and robotics. Tomorrow’s Technology – A Double-Edged Sword – A Double-Edged Technology Tomorrow’s ISBN: 978-3-903121-31-7 Anton Dengg (Ed.) 3/18 Schriftenreihe der Dengg (Ed.) Landesverteidigungsakademie Schriftenreihe der Landesverteidigungsakademie Anton Dengg (Ed.) Tomorrow´s Technology A Double-Edged Sword 3/2018 Vienna, March 2018 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria Schriftenreihe der Landesverteidigungsakademie Copyright: © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence All rights reserved March 2018 ISBN 978-3-903121-31-7 Printing: ReproZ W 18-1248 Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna Content Abstract ................................................................................................................... 9 Foreword .............................................................................................................. 11 1 Glossary ............................................................................................................ 13 2 General Reflections on Converging Technologies and Emerging Risks ............................................................................................. 19 New Technologies Meet New Challenges: Converging Technologies and Emerging Risks in the 21st Century Anton Dengg ....................................................................................................... 19 NBIC – Viewpoint of the Austrian Defence Technology Agency Michael B. Janisch ............................................................................................... 35 X-Events and the GNR Problem John Casti ........................................................................................................... 43 3 Implications in the Fields of Nano-/Bio-/Information Technology ...................................................................................................... 61 Security Risks of Converging Technologies in the Areas Bio-, Nano- and Information Security Johannes Rath ..................................................................................................... 61 What is the ‘Sinister’ Potential of Nano-, Bio-, and Information Technology Products in the Year 2025? Norbert Frischauf ................................................................................................ 65 Pandemic and Bioterrorist Threats – Risk Assessment Wolfgang Schallenberger ....................................................................................... 79 3 Emerging Security Challenges in Biology Filippa Lentzos ................................................................................................... 99 4 Implications for Robotics/Cognition/ICT Technology ................ 111 Artificial Intelligence and Cyber-Physical Systems: A Dangerous Mix? Robert Trappl .................................................................................................... 111 Multinational Robotic Wars –The Increasing Use of Unmanned Systems by State and Non-State Actors in Current and Future Conflict Zones Markus Reisner ................................................................................................. 117 Internet Use in Times of Change – Demand for Innovative Security Measures Reinhard Posch .................................................................................................. 129 5 Implications in the Field of Nano Materials Technology .............. 143 Session on Nanotechnology René Fries.......................................................................................................... 143 Nanomaterials Technology: Convergence between Nanotechnology and Materials Science and Engineering Michael Fredholm .............................................................................................. 145 Converging Technologies and Emerging Risks – Future Challenges for the Security Sector Joachim Klerx .................................................................................................... 191 6 International Perspectives on Converging Technologies and Emerging Risks .................................................................................. 209 The International Perspective Doris Wolfslehner .............................................................................................. 209 4 The Multilateral Debate about Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems Peter Steiner ...................................................................................................... 211 Converging Technologies and Emerging Risks: Council of Europe Perspectives Laurence Lwoff .................................................................................................. 221 Converging Technologies – A Topic for NATO? Ulf Ehlert ......................................................................................................... 239 7 Outlook .......................................................................................................... 265 Complexity, Systemic Risks and Converging Technologies Herbert Saurugg ................................................................................................ 265 Conclusion and Final Considerations Anton Dengg ..................................................................................................... 277 Authors ............................................................................................................... 289 5 The opinions expressed in the articles are those of the authors’. The articles are printed with the authors’ permission. The publisher wants to thank: Anna Rass, Anna Pichler, Andrea Prerad, Florian Koller, Michael Zinkanell, Christoph R. Cede, André Gazsó (Dr.), Andrea Grausenburger, Austrian Armed Forces Language Institute for her diligent proofreading. 7 Abstract New technologies have always influenced societies. They have not only entailed advantages. Revolutionary technologies have been misused and, in this way, impacted means and methods used in armed conflict, thus changing strategies as well as tactics. Similarly, threat scenarios will change in the face of the ever more speedily increasing technological progress. Nano- and biotechnology provide for promising changes in future society. The possibilities of miniaturization give reason to expect huge transformations in robotics. Societies spearheading these upcoming complex developments will also play a leading part in global security policy. Competition has already started worldwide and will heat up in the future. As the result of a project by the Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management (National Defence Academy, Vienna), this book intends to outline the future complexity of the individual research areas of nano- and biotechnology and robotics. At the same time, challenges lie ahead concerning international legislation. Efforts in this area and ways of dealing with increasing complexity are discussed in the final chapters. Possible consequences of these new areas of technology complete this publication. 9 Foreword We are living in „times of VUCA“, as Herbert Saurugg explains in his noteworthy article on page 270 of this book, meaning times of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Another contributor to this volume, Michael Fredholm, states that we cannot make serious forecasts and that the best we can achieve with regard to new technology is Early Warning and Situational Awareness as well as the implications thereof. These two statements are indicative of the times we live in and hint at the events we might be in for. Discussions are ongoing on whether the technological changes we are facing and already witnessing should be considered evolutionary or revolutionary. At any rate, Nano-/Bio- /Information Technology, in combination with Robotics, Miniaturization and Artificial Intelligence, has a significant impact on politics, the economy, society and security. However, is this already common knowledge or still only a top priority issue for the elites of society? Developments with regard to converging technologies as well as their impacts are and, no doubt, should be a research topic of the Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management at the Austrian National Defence Academy. Thus, we organise expert talks and conferences to which specialists with outstanding knowledge and understanding are invited. Not only do we try to promote academic discourse, but we also work to contribute to the dissemination of our results and conclusions. This book provides an excellent overview of recent developments regarding converging technologies. Several
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