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Security in South Asia: Conventional and Unconventional Factors of Destabilization Imprint Studies & Comments 9 Klaus Lange (ed.) Security in South Asia: Conventional and Unconventional Factors of Destabilization Imprint ISBN 978-3-88795-356-0 Publisher Copyright © 2009, Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V., Munich Lazarettstr. 33, 80636 Munich, Tel. +49-89-1258-0 E-Mail: [email protected], online: www.hss.de Chairman Dr. h.c. mult. Hans Zehetmair, State Minister (ret.) Managing Director Dr. Peter Witterauf Head of Academy for Prof. Dr. Reinhard Meier-Walser Politics and Current Affairs Head of Press, PR & Internet Hubertus Klingsbögl Editorial Office Prof. Dr. Reinhard Meier-Walser (Editor-in-Chief, V.i.S.d.P.) Barbara Fürbeth M.A. (Editorial Manager) Claudia Magg-Frank, Dipl. sc. pol. (Editorial Staff) Anna Pomian M.A. (Editorial Staff) Marion Steib (Assistant Editor) Print Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V., Munich All rights reserved, in particular the right to reproduction, distribution and translation. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, microfilm, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission in writing of the publisher. The copyright for this publication is held by the Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V. The views expressed by the authors in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher. Contents Klaus Lange Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 5 Hans-Georg Wieck Indien – Perspektiven und Risiken seiner Stabilität und Sicherheit ..................................... 7 Michael Chandler Terrorism: difficulties faced by national governments and the international community in countering the threat ................................................................ 13 Vinod Anand Naxalite ideology, strategy and tactics ................................................................................. 19 Animesh Roul Islamic terrorism in India: organizations, tentacles and networks ....................................... 33 Hein G. Kiessling Der pakistanisch-afghanische Problemverbund ................................................................... 43 Liping Xia Stability in South Asia: a view from China .......................................................................... 51 List of authors ....................................................................................................................... 63 Introduction Klaus Lange The publication at hand contains selected there is little justification for compartmen- papers presented at an international confer- talized research which focuses on individual ence organized by the Academy of Politics states in isolation from each other. and Current Affairs of the Hanns Seidel Foundation which took place in Wildbad Today South Asia is one of the key regions Kreuth on 16-18 June 2009. where the question of global development as a whole will be decided. This issue, with all The subject of the conference was "Security its accompanying risks and opportunities, in South Asia: Conventional and Unconven- makes it imperative as well as appropriate to tional Factors of Destabilization". direct a searchlight on the regional security of South Asia. The significance of South Asia in terms of security aspects is usually underrated in The contents of this publication do not claim Europe, particularly when that geographical to provide comprehensive coverage of all the area is viewed in a global context. It is also risks to stability in South Asia. The topics often overlooked that South Asia holds a here discussed do, however, constitute the- dominant position among the growth regions matic poles around which any future system- of the world. Moreover, South Asia com- atic analysis would have to be structured: it mands an incomparable historical and cul- can hardly be disputed that India and its tural "sounding board" with the potential to problems of stability would have to be con- resonate far beyond regional boundaries. sidered an essential and central subject, as would the entire interconnected complex of With the Indian subcontinent as its centre, the Pakistan-Afghan problem. South Asia is at the same time saddled with manifold risks to its stability, risks which At the same time it would also make sense cover a broad spectrum ranging from ex- to take another look at the phenomenon of treme social polarization and religious an- global terrorism, this time from the vantage tagonisms, through to numerous forms of point of recent developments since 9/11. terrorism. When the situation is subjected to Finally, any attempt to calculate or predict closer scrutiny, the impression arises that the the future prospects for stability in South governments of the region are often so Asia must in the long term take into account overtaxed when it comes to containing the the Chinese factor. current risks to their security and stability that any prognosis of the future development This publication will have more than ful- of South Asia must be accompanied by nu- filled its purpose if it results in drawing more merous question marks. Moreover, it has to attention to a region, the importance of be taken into account that South Asia con- which is in inverse proportion to the notice stitutes a system of interdependence and so it currently receives. Indien – Perspektiven und Risiken seiner Stabilität und Sicherheit Hans-Georg Wieck 1. Die Fragestellung tung stabiler Mehrheitsverhältnisse für die fünfjährige Regierungsperiode aufkommen Indien fällt bei der Bewältigung oder Ein- lassen – nicht ohne gute Gründe. dämmung der internationalen Bedrohungen ein erhebliches Maß an Verantwortung und Die Kongress-Partei verfügt nun über Gewicht zu, auch wenn das Land in vielen 206 Sitze und stellt in der von ihr ange- Fällen nicht in erster Linie oder ausschließ- führten United Progressive Alliance mit lich betroffen ist. 262 Sitzen die größte Partei. Andere Parla- mentsgruppen haben sich der Regierungs- Die Verantwortung für die Bewältigung der koalition angeschlossen. Diese verfügt nun inneren Bedrohungen liegt bei den Akteu- insgesamt über 330 Sitze im indischen Par- ren der demokratischen Kräfte und der lament (Lok Sabha). staatlichen Institutionen im Lande selbst. Die Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, national- Die innere und äußere Sicherheit und die hinduistische Partei) eroberte bei den Wah- politische Stabilität Indiens angesichts un- len 116 Sitze. Insgesamt verfügt die von übersehbarer, zum Teil existenzieller Risi- der BJP angeführte National Democratic ken hängen meines Erachtens daher vor Alliance über 159 Sitze. allem von folgenden Punkten ab: Überraschend schlecht hat das linke Wahl- – von der Glaubwürdigkeit und Zukunfts- bündnis Third Front mit insgesamt nur fähigkeit der indischen Demokratie, 79 Sitzen im indischen Parlament abge- schnitten. – von der Handlungsfähigkeit ihrer staat- lichen Institutionen und 2. Der überzeugende Sieg der Kongress- – von der Antwort auf die Frage, in wel- Koalition (United Progressive Alliance), zu cher geostrategischen Konstellation das dem gewiss auch die massiven Hilfspro- Land seine äußere Sicherheit sucht und gramme für die ländliche Bevölkerung bei- findet. getragen haben, hat denjenigen politischen Kräften im Lande Auftrieb gegeben, die von der Notwendigkeit überzeugt sind, den Staat nicht nur nach den Regeln der Verfas- 2. Die Antworten sung als säkularen Staat zu führen und zu gestalten, sondern auch pro-aktiv den poli- Die Wahlen vom Mai 2009 – Renaissance tisch organisierten Kräften zu begegnen, die von Demokratie und Handlungsfähigkeit? staatliche Institutionen zu Brutstätten religiö- ser Eiferer und Intoleranz, vor allem hindu- 1. Die Ergebnisse der indischen Parla- istischer Natur, werden lassen wollen oder mentswahlen vom 16. Mai 2009 sind im die den Staat im Wege eines militanten Lande und weltweit mit Erleichterung auf- islamischen Fundamentalismus untergraben genommen worden und haben die Erwar- wollen. 8 Hans-Georg Wieck Diese Gefahren bestehen und können nur Rahul Gandhi hat die Jugend des Landes im Wege politischen Dialogs, politischer aufgerufen, sich für dieses Land zu engagie- Vision und in Konfliktfällen durch die Ur- ren (Kennedy-Komplex). Dieser Appell ist teile unabhängiger Gerichte gebannt wer- glaubwürdig. Er wurde in Uttar Pradesch den. Die beiden großen Parteien haben auf sehr kräftig von seiner Charisma ausstrah- diesem Felde in der Vergangenheit gesün- lenden Schwester Priyanka Gandhi Vadra digt. unterstützt. Die Verjüngung der Führungs- kräfte ist angesichts der gegenwärtig die 3. "Good Governance" hat jetzt wieder eine Macht verwaltenden Altenriege unerläss- Chance. "Good Governance" ist der Schlüs- lich, die sowohl in der Regierung als auch sel zur Bewältigung der Glaubwürdigkeits- in der Opposition immer noch dominant ist. krise der indischen Demokratie Für diese Verjüngung steht Rahul Gandhi – und mit ihm auch die Sehnsucht nach Visi- onen für die Zukunft, wie es bei seinem Der Wahlsieg der Kongress-Partei wird Vater Rajiv der Fall gewesen war. von vielen Beobachtern nicht nur als eine Bestätigung des Ministerpräsidenten Man- Rahul Gandhi selbst weiß um den Vorwurf mohan Singh, der ein ausgewiesener und der Korruption, der auf der Kongress-Partei erfahrener Fachmann für alle finanz- und und seinem Vater lastet, und um den Mangel wirtschaftspolitischen Fragen ist, angese- an partei-interner Demokratie. Analog zu hen. Sonja Gandhi, die Parteivorsitzende sozialdemokratischen Vorstellungen setzt und
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