Fragile States, Technological Capacity, and Increased Terrorist Activity Ore Korena* and Sumit Gangulya and Aashna Kahnnaa aDepartment of Poltical Science, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA *corresponding author:
[email protected]. Fragile States, Technological Capacity, and Increased Terrorist Activity Research on terrorism disagrees on whether terrorist activity is at its highest in collapsed states, which are more hospitable to such activities, or whether terrorism increases in more capable states. We revisit this discussion by theorizing an interactive relationship: terrorists prefer to operate in politically-hospitable states, but their attack frequency within these states increases with greater technological capacity, which allows them to expand their military, recruitment, and financing operations. We analyze 27,018 terrorist incidents using regression and causal inference models, conduct a case study, and find robust support for this interactive logic. Our conclusions outline implications for policy and academic work. Keywords: terrorism; state capacity; War on Terror; technology; rogue states Does terrorist activity increase in all hospitable states equally or is it prevalent in more technologically advanced states? Recent research provides divergent answers to this question, with some studies emphasizing the role of failed states as breeding grounds for terrorists,1 while others arguing that terrorists cannot effectively operate in such states.2 Yet, to our knowledge, no study has approached this question by assuming a moderated