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Case No. 18-36082 in the UNITED STATES COURT of APPEALS Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 1 of 124 Case No. 18-36082 IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT KELSEY CASCADIA ROSE JULIANA, et al., Plaintiffs-Appellees, v. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, et al., Defendants-Appellants. On Interlocutory Appeal Pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 1292(b) DECLARATION OF KEVIN E. TRENBERTH IN SUPPORT OF PLAINTIFFS’ URGENT MOTION UNDER CIRCUIT RULE 27-3(b) FOR PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION JULIA A. OLSON PHILIP L. GREGORY (OSB No. 062230, CSB No. 192642) (CSB No. 95217) Wild Earth Advocates Gregory Law Group 1216 Lincoln Street 1250 Godetia Drive Eugene, OR 97401 Redwood City, CA 94062 Tel: (415) 786-4825 Tel: (650) 278-2957 ANDREA K. RODGERS (OSB No. 041029) Law Offices of Andrea K. Rodgers 3026 NW Esplanade Seattle, WA 98117 Tel: (206) 696-2851 Attorneys for Plaintiffs-Appellees Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 2 of 124 I, Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth, hereby declare and if called upon would testify as follows: 1. I am a Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. My office is located in Boulder, Colorado. 2. I have been retained as an expert on behalf of Plaintiffs in this litigation before the United States District Court for the District of Oregon (“District Court”). 3. I have prepared an expert report for this litigation (“Expert Report”), which forms part of the record in the District Court (D. Ct. Doc. 267-1). On September 14, 2018, Plaintiffs’ counsel served on Defendants a supplemental version of my Expert Report. A true and correct copy of my Supplemental Expert Report is attached hereto as Exhibit 1. Additional information regarding my professional and educational background can be found in my curriculum vitae, attached to this declaration as Exhibit A to Exhibit 1. 4. I submit this declaration in support of Plaintiffs’ Motion for Preliminary Injunction, in order to inform the Court of recent scientific findings which show that the ocean is warming at a greater pace than previously anticipated and the warming is accelerating. This evidence once again confirms the urgency of rapid greenhouse gas emission reductions and abatement in order to prevent increasing irreparable harm to these young Plaintiffs. A true and correct copy of the study, which was published in the January 11, 2019 edition 2 Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 3 of 124 of the eminent peer-reviewed journal Science,1 is attached hereto as Exhibit 2. Expert Qualifications and Experience 5. I have authored over 550 publications in the area of climate science and given hundreds of talks on the subject. I am among the most highly-cited researchers in all of geophysics. I have extensively investigated global-scale climate dynamics, the observations, processes and modeling of climate changes from interannual to centennial time scales. I have particular expertise in El Niño, the hydrological and energy cycles, hurricanes and storms, and climate change. I have served on many national and international committees including National Research Council/National Academy of Science committees, panels and/or boards. 6. I have been involved in global warming science and extensively involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) scientific assessment activity as a lead author of individual chapters, the Technical Summary, and Summary for Policy Makers of Working Group I for the Second, Third and Fourth Assessment Reports (SAR, TAR and AR4). I was a Coordinating Lead Author for the SAR and AR4; in the latter I led Chapter 3 that dealt with observations of surface and atmospheric climate change. I 1 Cheng, L. et al., How fast are the oceans warming?, 363 Science 128, 129 (2019). 3 Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 4 of 124 was a Review Editor of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013. Accordingly, I shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 that went to the IPCC and Al Gore. In 2017 I was awarded the prestigious Roger Revelle Medal by the American Geophysical Union. The Oceans are Warming Faster than Previously Projected 7. On January 11, 2019, the study How fast are the oceans warming? was published in volume 363, issue 6423 of the peer-reviewed journal Science. The study was authored by me, alongside three co-authors.2 8. The study reviews and synthesizes recent peer-reviewed observational studies of the change in ocean heat content (“OHC”) that have been published since the publication of the IPCC’s AR5. Drawing on multiple lines of evidence – including improved reconstructions of OHC records; improved methods of measuring OHC and better accounting for spatial and temporal gaps of OHC measurements, and records from improved and more recently-deployed OHC- measuring instruments – we were able to provide a robust conclusion that our oceans are warming faster than previously indicated.3 9. As I noted in my Supplemental Expert Report, one of the weaknesses inherent in the IPCC’s periodic assessment reports is that the lengthy timeline and 2 Lijing Cheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the lead author of the study. 3 Ex. 2 at 128. 4 Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 5 of 124 review-process for producing an IPCC report means that many of the findings lag behind the current state of the literature.4 Our study has now shown that assessments of rates of ocean warming are another area in which IPCC findings and projections have been overly-conservative compared to the most- recent, real-world observations and peer-reviewed literature. Indeed, our study largely accounts for what was previously a supposed anomaly between the IPCC’s “observed” ocean warming, and that projected by IPCC climate models.5 10. The implications of our study’s finding that the oceans are warming faster than previously thought are staggering. The rate of warming in the upper levels of the ocean since 1991 has been approximately five-times greater than the rate of warming through the 1970s and 1980s (see Figure below).6 The amount of energy absorbed by the oceans alone in 2018 – 9.1 zettajoules (1 zettajoule = 1021 joules).6 This is equivalent to 680 times the total electricity energy consumption in the United States in 2017.7 4 See Ex. 1 at 15 note 5. 5 Ex. 2 at 128-129. 6 Cheng, L., et al., 2018 continues record global ocean warming, 36(3) Adv. Atmos. Sci. 249 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x. 7 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric power annual 2015 (2016), https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_02.html. 5 Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 6 of 124 Figure: Change in 0–2000 m OHC from 1958 to 2018. Each bar shows the annual mean relative to a 1981–2010 baseline (positive in red and negative in blue). The green error bar indicates the 95% confidence interval, and the black line is the monthly time series. 11. The principle driver of this warming has been the accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and the resulting deepening of the energy imbalance in Earth’s climate system.8 Both global and U.S. emissions are currently increasing,9 meaning that, until emissions begin to decline, oceans will continue to warm even more rapidly, with devastating consequences. 8 Ex. 2 at 128. 9 Carrington, Damian, 'Brutal news': global carbon emissions jump to all-time high in 2018, The Guardian, Dec. 5, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global- carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018; Holden, Emily, Carbon emissions up as Trump agenda rolls back climate change work, The Guardian, Jan. 8, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/08/carbon-emissions- trump-agenda-climate-change; Rhodium Group, Preliminary US Emissions Estimates for 2018 (January 8, 2018), https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us- emissions-estimates-for-2018/ 6 Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 7 of 124 12. These findings of our recent study thus underline and emphasize the opinions expressed in my Supplemental Expert Report, as well as the opinions of other experts retained by Plaintiffs. As I noted in my Supplemental Expert Report, the record-breaking hurricanes, super storms and extreme flooding that the Earth has experienced in the last decade – including Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda, Superstorm Sandy, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and the 2016 Louisiana Floods – were driven by increased ocean heat content and resulting high sea surface temperatures. These warmer ocean temperatures in turn increased atmospheric moisture content, storm size, and precipitation, causing greater damage to property and loss of lives.10 13. It should also be noted that more and higher rates of ocean warming will have dire implications for marine ecosystems and will contribute significantly to sea level rise through thermal expansion of the oceans. As our study concluded, the only way to slow or stop these impacts is to slow or stop the warming of our climate, which requires immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.11 Given what we now know about the acceleration of the warming of the oceans, I believe that efforts by the present administration to expand fossil fuel production and continue authorizing the extraction of coal on federal lands are extremely reckless. 10 Ex. 1 at 18-20. 11 Ex. 2 at 129. 7 Case: 18-36082, 02/07/2019, ID: 11183380, DktEntry: 21-3, Page 8 of 124 14. To climate scientists, ongoing high levels of greenhouse gas emissions and ocean warming have created a state of emergency.
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