BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE January 28th, 2021 ISSN 2446-7014

JOURNAL OF GEOPOLITICS AND POLITICS YEAR 7 • Nº 131

Escalation of tensions in the dispute for Essequibo This and a further 14 articles in this edition BOLETIM RESEARCHERS OF THE CONJUNCTURE GEOCORRENTE ASSESSMENT GROUP Boletim Geocorrente is a fortnightly publication written by the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC), which is part SUB-SAHARAN of the Department of Research and Post-Graduation (SPP) at Ariane Dinalli Francisco (Universität Osnabrück) the Naval War College (EGN). NAC studies the International Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Conjuncture from a geopolitical framework, in order to supply Franco Napoleão A. de Alencastro Guimarães (Puc-Rio) Isadora Jacques de Jesus (Ufrj) the global demand for information, making it more accessible João Victor Marques Cardoso (Unirio) for the general public. Moreover, it seeks to intertwine society Vivian de Mattos Marciano (Uerj) into defense and security issues, and to disseminate updated knowledge of international conflicts and crisis to meet the Naval Staff's demands. Bruna Soares Corrêa de Souza (LaSalle) YEAR 7 • Nº 131 The research group responsible for this Boletim is Carlos Henrique Ferreira da Silva Júnior (Ufrj) composed of members from different areas of expertise, whose Gabriela de Assumpção Nogueira (Ufrj) multiple backgrounds and experiences provide a comprehensive Matheus Souza Galves Mendes (Egn) approach to the latest international issues. It seeks to analyse the Pedro Emiliano Kilson Ferreira (Univ. de Santiago) major themes, motivational factors and the main actors regarding the escalation of conflicts, ongoing crises and its outcomes. NORTH & Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Thus, this journal aims to publish short articles concerning Jéssica Pires Barbosa Barreto (Egn) current issues about ten macro- in the globe: South Rafael Esteves Gomes (Ufrj) America, North and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Victor Cabral Ribeiro (Puc-Rio) Middle East and North Africa, , Russia and former Victor Eduardo Kalil Gaspar Filho (Egn) USSR, South , East Asia, Southeast Asia and , and Antarctic. Furthermore, some editions feature the ARCTIC & ANTARTIC "Special Topics" section. Ana Carolina Ferreira Lahr (Egn) Gabriele Marina Molina Hernandez (Uff) BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Puc-Rio) DIRECTOR Raphaella da Silva Dias Costa (Ufrj) Rear Admiral Paulo César Bittencourt Ferreira RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION EUROPE SUPERINTENDENT OF THE BRAZILIAN Melissa Rossi (Suffolk University) NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Nathália Soares de Lima do Vale (Uerj) Rear Admiral (Retd.) Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Thaïs Abygaëlle Dedeo (Université de Paris 3) Silva Victor Magalhães Longo de Carvalho Motta (Ufrj) EDITORIAL BOARD EAST ASIA EDITOR-IN-CHIEF João Pedro Ribeiro Grilo Cuquejo (Ibmec) Captain (RETD) Leonardo Faria de Mattos (Egn) Luís Filipe de Souza Porto (Ufrj) Marcelle Torres Alves Okuno (Ibmec) EXECUTIVE EDITOR Philipe Alexandre Junqueira (Uerj) Captain-Liutenant Bruno de Seixas Carvalho (Egn) Rodrigo Abreu de Barcellos Ribeiro (Ufrj) Vinicius Guimarães Reis Gonçalves (Ufrj) SCIENTIFIC EDITOR Captan (RETD) Francisco E. Alves de Almeida (Egn) MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ASSISTANT EDITORS Adel Bakkour (Ufrj) Jéssica Germano de Lima Silva (Egn) Ana Luiza Colares Carneiro (Ufrj) Noele de Freitas Peigo (Facamp) André Figueiredo Nunes (Eceme) Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Puc-Rio) Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (ufrj) Dominique Marques de Souza (Ufrj) GRAPHIC DESIGN Pedro da Silva Albit Penedo (Ufrj) Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) RUSSIA & FORMER USSR Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (ufrj) José Gabriel de Melo Pires (Ufrj) TRANSLATION AND REVIEW Luiza Gomes Guitarrari (Ufrj) Rodrigo Oliveira Dutra Marcílio (UFRJ) Pedro Mendes Martins (Eceme) Pérsio Glória de Paula (Uff)

SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA PUBLICATION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES To publish in the Boletim, the author is required to be a researcher Iasmin Gabriele Nascimento dos Santos (ufrj) of the Current Geopolitics Group of NAC and submit his article Matheus Bruno Ferreira Alves Pereira (Ufrj) containing a maximum of 350 words to the peer review assessment Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) process. Vinícius de Almeida Costa (Egn) CONTACT SOUTH ASIA Brazilian Naval War College – Research and Post-Graduation João Miguel Villas-Boas Barcellos (Ufrj) Superintendency. Marina Soares Corrêa (Ufrj) Av. Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha – Urca - Postal Code: 22290-255 - Rebeca Vitória Alves Leite (Egn) Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brazil PHONE.: +55 (21) 2546-9394 | E-mail: [email protected] SPECIAL TOPICS This and other editions of BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE, in Alessandra Dantas Brito (Egn) portuguese and english, can be found at the Brazilian Naval War College Webpage and in our Google Drive Folder . 2 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE INDEX

SOUTH AMERICA EAST ASIA The expectations for the Argentine external and maritime policy...... 5 Suganomics: Digital and green economy in Japan's post-COVID-19 future...... 12 Escalation of tensions in the dispute for Essequibo...... 6 The rise of Chinese military power: a new land- power...... 13 U.S.-China relations: what comes after Trump?...... 14 NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH ASIA Joseph Biden and the resumption of the U.S. multilateral orientation...... 7 The dispute between United States and China over Central America and ...... The consequences of the American troops withdrawal from Afghanistan...... 14 The ...... 7 ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Expectations for the Arctic: increased transport on the...... The impacts of the AfCFTA, the world’s largest free trade agreement ...... 8 Northern Sea Route...... 15

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Kuwait’s mediation in resolving the Gulf Crisis...... 9 EUROPE Norway, Sweden, and Finland develop their defense posture in the same...... direction...... 9 Selected Articles & Defense News...... 16 Greece expands its before a meeting with Turkey...... 10 Geocorrente Calendar...... 16 RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR References...... 17 Southern Gas Corridor: the advance of Azerbaijan's energy geopolitics...... 11 Risk Maps...... 18 The role of the Kazan submarine in the Russian geopolitical interests...... 12

TOP GLOBAL RISKS Without considering the COVID-19 pandemic

For more informations on the criteria used, visit page 18.

3 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE SOUTH AMERICA COVID-19 MONITORING THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST CASES Data according to the "WHO COVID-19 Dashboard", published on January 28th, 2021.

VACCINE MONITORING

Sources: World Health Organization; The New York Times 4 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 SOUTH AMERICA

The expectations for the Argentine external and maritime policy Carlos Silva Júnior

he Argentine presence in the South Atlantic goes program establishes, especially in the new outlined area Tbeyond political stances. Since the beginning of his for the , to find hydrocarbon reserves. mandate in December 2019, Alberto Fernandez took As a dichotomy, finds expectations for its concrete measures to guarantee the country’s presence main maritime interest in a new international context. The and strengthen the national interests in the country’s , South Georgia, and the South Sandwich maritime territory. The measures include the relaunch Islands compose the 's overseas of the “Pampa Azul” program, the creation of a specific territories; however, their sovereignty is claimed by the national council for Maritime Affairs and the delineation South American country. With the Brexit’s completion, of the external limit of the continental shelf (Boletins the Argentine government hopes to gain support from the 113 and 121), as well as dealing with illegal fishing in its European Union (EU) in its claim, considering that the jurisdictional waters (Boletins 117 and 128). bloc was once aligned to the United Kingdom since the Additionally, the upkeep of actions carried out British country's overseas territories were also inserted in the last year is notable, especially in the political- in the bloc. economic field. Recently, the Yacimientos Petrolíferos Furthermore, the strained relations among the Fiscales (YPF), an Argentine state oil company, and United Kingdom, EU, and the Falklands and Malvina the Norwegian company Equinor decided to join Shell Islands (UK) is directly related to the absence of a trade in the first deep-water exploration in the country, in agreement that preserves the commercial and fiscal the CAN100 offshore block, located in the North of benefits of the South Atlantic archipelago’s fishing the Argentine sea. The partnership between YPF and with the EU. Beyond this disturbing context, a strong Equinor already extends itself to two other offshore articulation of the Argentine foreign policy to obtain blocks, while the trio was in the onshore block Bandurria European support will be necessary. The articulation may Sur’s exploration, in the exploration area of Vaca Muerta, come, for instance, from an active stance of mitigating in the North of . As far as one can tell, the first the deadlocks in the Mercosur-EU agreement and deep-water exploration movement will promote incentives approaching the archipelago’s local government, which for research on marine resources, as the “Pampa Azul” understands Argentina even as a threat.

Source: La Nation

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5 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 Escalation of tensions in the dispute for Essequibo

Bruna Soares Corrêa de Souza

he border crisis between Venezuela and Guyana Coast Guard on the waters of the disputed territory with Tpromotes an escalation in maritime tensions the USCG Stone (WMSL-758). During a visit to Guyana in Northern South America. Caracas has resumed from January 11-13, the SOUTHCOM Commander, discussions about its territorial claim of the Essequibo Admiral Craig Faller, reaffirmed the Defense cooperation , an area granted to England in the 19th century by commitment between the U.S. and Guyana and the international arbitration and it belongs to Guyana since maintenance of sovereignty of their territories and then (Boletim 120). Rich in ores, water resources, and maritime areas. large newly discovered offshore oil reserves, the region The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has jurisdiction instigates Venezuela and international interests. Brazil, and deliberative capacity in the disputes between states. which shares borders with both countries, must closely However, Maduro opposed to the Court's interference observe the issue, given the growing tension between and defended direct negotiations with Guyana. The ICJ the two states. Thus, would it be possible to avoid the works on legal disputes submitted by contentious states, aggravation of these tensions in the geopolitical context and its arbitration on the issue of Essequibo would of the region? result in a peaceful resolution of the debates. Another Venezuelan representative Nicolás Maduro has acted possibility would be the diplomatic intermediation of on two distinct fronts aimed at reconquering Essequibo: some South American states, such as Brazil, to make military projection and international law. In the military possible the negotiation between the litigious states and sphere, Maduro created, by a decree, the Special avoid military escalation. Economic Military Forest Development Zone, on the Consequently, we see that the diplomatic route and land border with Essequibo, coordinated by the country’s international law are possible ways to avoid a warlike Ministry of Defense. On the seafront, Caracas intensified conflict between Guyana and Venezuela, something to be the patrolling in the Atlantic coast with warships as a closely observed by the Brazilian government since the likely response to the increase of U.S. support for the problem involves its strategic environment and proximity Guyanese government. In January 2021, the U.S. Coast to borders. Guard executed military exercises alongside the Guyana

Source: ABC

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6 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Joseph Biden and the resumption of the U.S. multilateral orientation Jéssica Barreto and Victor Gaspar Filho he democrat Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. took office intention to cooperate and collaborate financially with Tas the 46th president of the United States of America the organization. Additionally, the current President (USA) on January 20th, 2021, after defeating Donald restored the Directorate for Global Health Security Trump – the 5th president in American history failing and Biodefense, which had been dissolved by the to secure reelection. Preceded by a troubled period of Republican ex-president, at the National Security far-right demonstrations against the election results, the Council. The department was established during the former President did not attend the ceremony. Biden Ebola epidemic in 2014. Biden appointed Jeff Zients is part of the Democratic Party’s moderate wing and, as the official COVID-19 response coordinator, during his campaign, he defended the importance of renowned for managing critical projects during Obama’s multilateralism and the maintenance of the American administration. Furthermore, Dr. Anthony Fauci, in turn, role in the International System. will coordinate the American delegation to the WHO’s When Trump took office as president in 2017, he Executive Board. Finally, the President promises to end dedicated his first week to sign several executive orders the so-called “forever wars”, Iraq and Afghanistan Wars; that revoked Barack Obama’s measures. On the other withdraw the American troops from Yemen; and has also hand, Biden signed 17 executive orders on the day of expressed his interest in renewing the New START treaty his inauguration in fields such as migration, economy, with Russia, about to expire. administration, environment, and pandemic response. The new administration tends to return to the Among his measures, the decision to rejoin the Paris traditional bipartisan foreign policy performed by the Climate Accord stands out. Other important measures are USA. In contrast to the isolationist and bilateral moment the interruption of the wall being built on the Mexican promoted by Trump over the last four years, Biden says Border and the permit termination for the Keystone XL that he will not only resume the country's multilateral pipeline connected to Canada. orientation, but he also intends to restore the American Additionally, Biden revoked the U.S. WHO position as leader of the international integration. withdrawal announced by Trump, reaffirming his DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 07.

The dispute betwen United States and China over Central America and The Caribbean

Victor Cabral

ith the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, Central China has consistent relations with countries that no WAmerica and the Caribbean have become influence longer recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan, an island goals for China. Beijing has expanded its trade balance considered by China as a "rebel province", such as Costa with the region and attracted States to join the Chinese Rica, El Salvador, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. strategic initiative, its project to invest in infrastructure For Beijing, this position is positive, as it internationally and achieve diplomatic and economic influence weakens the shaky Taiwanese sovereignty, which worldwide. In recent years, the Chinese movement is partially sustained by the Caribbean and Central has alarmed the United States of the possibility of American countries. The Trump’s administration stance the Asian country destabilize its power balance and of isolating itself in domestic issues and moving away influence sphere in its direct geographic surroundings. from , its historical power projection zone, Furthermore, the ideological and commercial proximity has helped the Chinese movements. to Cuba and Venezuela would allow such countries to Beijing invests in the region in port infrastructure, provide logistical support in the to the highways, security technologies, communication Chinese Navy in a possibility of armed conflict, which satellites, culture, and health. Gradually, it presents would be a risk to its security. So, how does the Chinese itself to the countries as a reliable partner, something expansion in the region impact the U.S. foreign policy challenging for a region so close to American interests. and how is it reflected in territorial control? The possibility of China investing in the implementation »

7 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 of bio-oceanic corridors, such as the Nicaraguan Canal Chinese investments, aiming at regional restructuring after or the Honduran Dry Canal, worries the U.S. because the economic crisis of 2020, aggravated by environmental these ventures would facilitate access to the Atlantic and disasters as a reflex of climate change and the pandemic. Pacific and could control strategic territories for It will be up to Biden’s administration to decide how he the security environment of Washington, responding to will reposition the country on Central America and the the extractive, commercial and geopolitical interests of Caribbean to recover its historical influence, increasingly China. weakened by Chinese interests. Central American and the Caribbean States can accept

Export and import data for Latin America and the Caribbean in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019

Source: CEPAL (adapted)

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 07-08.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

The impacts of the AfCFTA, the world’s largest free trade agreement

Isadora Jacques

frica is extremely dependent on the export of free trade. According to the Nigerian Customs Service Acommodities to other through maritime executive secretary, the road structure and the connection trade. Negotiations for the development of the African between the railway network and ports are fundamental Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) were signed in for the automation of the port system in the first quarter March 2018. Today, the agreement is signed by 54 of of 2021. the 55 member states of the African Union (AU), being As a result of the investment, financed through Eritrea the only one not making part of it. After half of indebtedness, profitability becomes fundamental for these members' ratification, the organization is in force the port infrastructure program's success. To this end, since January 1st, 2021, with the objective of boosting government officials and managers involved in the EUROPE trade within the and strengthen its unity in AfCFTA need to overcome the consequences of 2020’s global negotiations. According to the World Bank, the drop in exports, an increase in unemployment, and a economic bloc has become, geographically, the largest health crisis. Due to the decrease in economic dynamism, free trade area in the world, totaling 1.3 billion people more than 95% of the total hijackings resulting from and a GDP of USD 3.4 trillion. Thus, it is questioned piracy were recorded only in the western portion of the how this agreement can affect port infrastructure on the continent. Besides, in the same region, there was an continent. increase of 7% of these incidents, compared to 2019, Aligned with this project, the investment in the while in the rest of the world, this index declined. African port sector currently amounts around USD 85 It can be seen, therefore, that the positive expectations billion, coming from public and private initiatives, which of the free trade area and the broad African investment is justified by the expectations of commercial return. can give strength to the port sector and maritime trade, Faced with the demand of some countries to improve the guaranteeing employment and income opportunities, port infrastructure, Nigeria stands out for its investments stimulating the increase of naval security in the region in the land transport sector to remedy the existing and, finally, the integration into commercial transactions deficiencies to benefit from the dynamism expected by on the continent.

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 08.

8 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Kuwait’s mediation in resolving the Gulf Crisis André Nunes he 41st Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit GCC mechanisms. Ttook place on January 5th, 2021, in Al Ula, Saudi Kuwait’s role as a mediator is relevant for the Arabia. The host country, the United Arab Emirates, and status of its diplomacy and for its security, considering Bahrain — besides Egypt, which is not part of the GCC that the country is geographically close to three states — announced the suspension of the trade embargo and with territorial, demographic, and military superiority: of the closing of airspace borders with Qatar, which is in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. Therefore, besides being a effect since June 5th 2017, due to statements attributed counterweight to Iraq and Iran, the cohesion among GCC and denied by emir catari, published by the Qatar News members can also be interpreted as a way to contain Agency (QNA) on May 24th. Doha stated that the QNA possible hegemonic impulses of Riyadh to the detriment had been hacked. of the ’s smaller countries. During more than three years of a crisis involving these states, countries like the United States and Kuwait have attempted to mediate the diplomatic stalemate's resolution. Kuwait, an Arab country, a member of the GCC and with a mediation history in regional conflicts, actively operated, especially in the person of the former Emir and Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jabir al-Sabah, who died in September 2020. It is important to highlight that the parties involved in the conflict validated Kuwait's role as mediator, since a few days after the publication of the QNA, Qatar Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani went to Kuwait City to discuss the tension in the Gulf. Additionally, al-Thani was the only head of state to attend the GCC Summit in December 2017 and the only one present at the wake of Sabah al-Sabah. Furthermore, the Kuwaiti Al-Rai published on September 7th, 2019, that Saudi Arabia had stated that the resolution of the standoff with Doha would only be resolved through Kuwait’s mediation and the Source: Britannica (adapted) DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 09.

EUROPE

Norway, Sweden, and Finland develop their defense posture in the same direction

Thaïs Dedeo he Defense ministers of Norway, Sweden, and Finland in the sector in 70 years. As a result, the Sweden Royal Tdenoted the urge to improve their countries' defense Navy will have a 60% increase in its budget, during this capability, respectively. Even though the three ministers period, the number of submarines will increase from four made individual statements, their three speeches reveals to five, and anti-aircraft missiles will be added on five similar stances and the common perception of a regional corvette platforms. In its turn, Norway plans to increase context increasingly vulnerable to external threats, its defense spending to reach NATO’s target of a 2% especially after the annexation of by Russia in share of GDP until 2028. The Norwegian Navy will be 2014. strengthened with a greater number of personnel, frigates, The three Nordic nations design their next decade and submarines, and the Coast Guard will acquire three with a strengthened Defense budget to reorganize and new ships. Meanwhile, Finland’s military spending is modernize their Armed Forces through similar directions. expected to reach more than 2.2% of its GDP in 2021 The Swedish defense budget will go from USD 6.2 billion and, in the upcoming years, its Navy will acquire a new in 2020 to USD 9.2 billion in 2025, the biggest increase squadron with four Pohnjanmaa class corvettes. » DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 08.

9 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 Cyber Defense is another notable area in the future Moreover, the signing of a military operational military planning of the three Nordic countries. It is worth cooperation declaration between the three ministers of remembering the Norwegian accusations about Russian Defense in September 2020 stands out, committing the GPS interference and the Parliament hacking episode. countries to guarantee security and stability of Northern Moreover, the importance of Nordic, transatlantic, or Europe and the Arctic, increasingly sought-after by European defense cooperation and conducting of military external actors as the region becomes a new trade route. exercises to improve interoperability are also mentioned Therefore, it is clear that the three nations are equivalently by the three ministers. preparing themselves for an unpredictable military future.

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 09-10. Greece expands its territorial waters before a meeting with Turkey Dominique Marques and Melissa Rossi ive days before a meeting between Greece and Turkey, up to 71% of the Aegean, affecting Turkey´s access to Fwhich took place at the beginning of this week, the its waters due to the significant number of Greek islands Greek parliament voted 284-0 in favor of extending located in that sea. its territorial waters from 6 to 12 nautical miles in the Moreover, these recent developments have taken . This is the first time that Greece extends place in the midst of a tentative rapprochement between its maritime borders since 1947. The extension, which both countries, in particular in regards to their North follows the precepts of the United Nations Convention Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) duties. Besides, on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), took place after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who currently negotiations with Greece´s Western neighbors, namely faces increasing regional isolation owing to the country's Italy and Albania, but still depends on a Hague decision controversial attempts to explore hydrocarbons in the regarding overlapping Italian and Albanian maritime Eastern Mediterranean, has further expressed his country´s zones. Nevertheless, though Greece´s maritime extension intention to realign once again with the European Union does not cause problems for Italy and Albania, how will (EU). it affect the already fragile and tense relation between The goal of the meeting was to discuss both countries´ Greece and Turkey? maritime zones, but while Athens would like to maintain It is important to note that Turkey declared in 1995 the discussions focused on the topic of its Exclusive that any request by Greece to extend its territorial waters Economic Zones (EEZs), Ankara wants to address the in the , where dozens of Greek islands are demilitarization of Greek islands in the Aegean, the located close to the Turkish coast, would be considered question of Muslim minorities in Greece and the status of a causa belli. This current request by Greece could some specific islands. After this first meeting in Istanbul, indicate the intention of making the same request for the both countries have agreed to continue debating these Aegean Sea, where Greece controls 21% of its waters. issues in a follow-up meeting in Athens, indicating an act If the request for the maritime extension in the Ionian of good faith after not having met for more than 5 years. Sea is accepted, then Greece could eventually also claim

Source: Greek Reporter

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 10. 10 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR Southern Gas Corridor: the advance of Azerbaijan's energy geopolitics

Luiza Guitarrari he next decade aims to be a diversification period of 1 tcm (trillion cubic meters). Tinside the gas market. Due to the advances in the Therefore, crossing seven countries, the 3,500 construction of new gas pipelines and, mainly, the km “corridor” intends to actively contribute to the European scenario — the largest Russian market, the transnational energy market's diversification to avoid entrance of new energy suppliers in what is considered to dependence on regional powers such as Russia and Iran. be a monopoly is perceived. Considering the latent agenda Moreover, on December 31st, 2020, the first on energy security and its subsequent diversification, it commercial pumping of Azeri gas to Europe took place is notable that Azerbaijan, with its ambitious Southern through the TAP (Trans Adriatic Pipeline) gas pipeline, Gas Corridor (SCG), appears as a relevant energy actor the last segment of the extensive SCG. However, its flow in 2021. Given the sector is an important pillar of its of 16 billion cubic meters (bcm), 10 bcm towards Western economy, what can be expected from its incursion into Europe and 6 bcm towards Turkey, still does not tally the largest Russian market? the 170 bcm exported by Moscow last year. However, After the Soviet Bloc's disintegration in 1991, the shipment is already enough to supply part of the Azerbaijan gained notoriety by discovering large demand from countries in the , such as Bulgaria, deposits in areas producing oil and natural gas, especially which previously depended on 2.3 bcm of Russian in the Shah Deniz field, in the . The country gas, with propensities for additional volumes to other is responsible for 80% of the energy market. countries, given the project's scalability. Thus, in 1994, the “contract of the century” was signed After decades of energy diplomacy between the with the state company SOCAR. The contract brought European Union and even the United States, Azerbaijan eleven multinational corporations into a consortium also paves the way for other Caspian countries to find in to exploit Azeri energy resources in the Caspian for 30 the consolidated corridor to Europe a free transit route years. This is currently considered one of the ten largest from the Russian sphere. offshore gas reserves globally, with an estimated volume

Source: Newsletter European

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11 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR The role of the Kazan submarine in the Russian geopolitical interests José Gabriel Melo he concealment and discretion in the maritime and the anti-ship cruise missile P-800 Onikz, and it is Ttheaters of operation are some of the characteristics 130-meters long and is capable of receiving 68 crewmen. that constitute the submarines as an important instrument The explanation of this huge investment goes through of naval power application, which plays an essential two areas, but it is not limited to them: the geopolitical role in guaranteeing sovereignty. In this context, in and the economic field. The geopolitical importance late December 2020, the Russian Ministry of Defense of this spending is explained by the Kazan theater of published a note about the commissioning of the project operations, which should be allocated to the North 885M, the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan K-561 Fleet. The squadron is responsible for the (Yansen-M class), an investment of about USD 1.6 billion region, which has been standing out because of the and seen as the state-of-art by the Russian Navy High alarming melting level, representing the prospect of new Command. However, a question arises: what factors lead navigation routes that reduce the transit time of merchant a country undergoing a serious economic crisis, which is values. Furthermore, the region is also abundant in living impacted by severe sanctions, to make an investment of and non-living natural resources. On the other hand, the this greatness? economic importance is justified by the need to stimulate Beforehand, from a tactical point of view, it should be the defense industry, the second-largest revenue source perceived that the nuclear submarine plays an important for the Russian state and responsible for about three deterrent role in the naval context. In other words, as it is million jobs. always submerged, the discretion of the submarine allows Thus, in an international setting that is increasingly it to become a constant threat, denying the enemy the aggressive to Moscow, the investment in a nuclear- use of the sea. The Kazan was designed by Malakhit and powered submarine with a deterrent capacity seems to be constructed by Sevmash, both subsidiaries of the state- adequate. The Kazan is a milestone in the modernization owned United Shipbuilding Corporation, having a full of the powerful Russian Navy, which began about a displacement of 13,800 tons. The submarine has as its decade ago. main armaments the multipurpose Kalibr cruise missile

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 12.

EAST ASIA

Suganomics: Digital and green economy in Japan's post-COVID-19 future

Vinícius Guimarães Reis Gonçalves n a global analysis, the Japanese economy was one between China and the USA is a clear illustration of Iof the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, this fact. The combination of domestic and international and structural problems of decades were amplified by factors pushes the government to be focused on the long the virus. As an additional element, we can find Abe's and medium-term demands. In a digital competitiveness Olympic legacy pressing the public coffers. As a way of ranking made in 2020, Japan placed 27th position among reflecting on the 2021 situation and the long run, Prime 63 economies analyzed. Minister Yoshihide Suga elected two pillars for the On the other hand, the socio-economic development economic recovery: the Digital and the Green. will be “green” in terms of incorporating sustainable Japan has always been recognized for its technological development in all productive spheres in the country. innovation; however, the last 30 years have shown the The government has already announced that it intends sector's tendency to stagnate. The new macroeconomic to neutralize carbon dioxide emissions until 2050. plan involves a digital transformation of all structures Sustainable development brings confidence to the in the country. The objective is to generate jobs and markets and the population, helping to compose a better to align all the productive sectors. The current digital public image of the government. Like in the digital technology is a field that directly involves the geopolitics field, the discussion on implementing a 100% renewable and international finances of the countries; the 5G clash energy matrix is also a debate about geopolitical matters. »

12 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 Finally, this initiative called Suganomics, in order to the population and women's low participation in the emulate the Abenomics, demonstrates an accurate view job market (Womenomics). Therefore, it is important to of the main economic demands of the future. However, know if Japan will have the necessary basis to promote the country still has to deal with old structural problems this change of focus in the economic field. like its “demographic time bomb” due to the aging of

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 12-13.

The rise of Chinese military power: a new land-sea power

Rodrigo Abreu t the end of 2020, satellite images suggested that the successive economic and military goals announced by AChina had substantially increased the Yulin Naval the government indicate the presence of such planning. Base infrastructure in Hainan Province. Yulin is the China must construct good relationships and guarantee largest naval base in the , and the images stability around its borders to sustain itself as a land-sea of the reforms indicate that China is building a dry dock power. Border conflicts and the weakening of diplomatic capable of housing its aircraft carriers. relationships with India or Russia, or the escalation of The Yulin Naval Base reforms represent yet another disputes on the Korean peninsula may imply that China dimension of the increase in China’s naval power in recent needs to assign greater resources to land forces, delaying years. The Chinese Navy’s power projection capability its naval expansion. is continuously enlarging so that in the upcoming years, Therefore, although it represents an increase in its mobility and permanence may extend its operational capabilities, the transformation into a land-sea power reach in the Central Pacific region. Therefore, China will imposes new challenges for China at the political and no longer be just a land power, but it will be inserted in the strategic level, considering that the demands of the land-sea power category. both power dimensions need to receive attention and History presents examples of land powers that failed resources equally. Additionally, Beijing needs to be when they tried to establish their sea power, highlighting aware of the possible geopolitical impacts of the rise of the difficulty of keeping this dynamic in the long run. its naval power, since this process makes not only the However, these failures to sustain a land and naval stance United States but also regional countries feel threatened are justified by neglecting one of these dimensions and by its expansion and military presence. the lack of clear long-term planning. In the Chinese case,

Source: News Finale

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 13.

13 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 U.S.-China relations: what comes after Trump? Filipe Porto he Chinese threat is one of the main convergent points Both countries' divergent nature in terms of Tbetween the former President Donald Trump and his social systems, stages of development, and historical successor, Joe Biden. Despite the fact that Biden does not culture reinforces the need to reevaluate their bilateral even mention China in his inaugural speech, the question relations. Some of its top officials nominated to the new is undoubtedly central to the new U.S. administration, administration demonstrate how to outline this objective. which is: what can we expect from Sino-American Avril Haines, head of the secret service, considers China relations during Biden’s government? a "challenge" to the security and prosperity of the United In the commercial sphere, the list of sanctions States and supports an "aggressive stance" to deal with the imposed by the Trump administration on China requires challenges of the bilateral relationship; Defense Secretary attention to decide whether to maintain, review or remove General Lloyd Austin advocates a "coercive approach" to these initiatives. This exercise is latent, considering Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world, the recent signing of the Regional Comprehensive aligned with what Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State, Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest free trade proposes on rescuing the position of strength of the U.S., agreement globally, which has filled a gap left by the US substantially rattled during the Trump administration. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Therefore, Biden will seek to strengthen ties with The deal allows greater reception of Chinese investments regional allies, as Trump publicly endorsed on the structure in the Indo-Pacific region countries, eliminating import of the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific", while windows of tariffs for 20 years in areas such as intellectual property, opportunity stem, for instance, on the worsening stage telecommunications, financial services, electronic of Sino-Australian relations. A similar fact can be noted commerce, and professional services. Inertia, otherwise, on China's border stalemate with India; facts that point threatens the US imperative to reduce the supply chain to a context of political and strategic consultation in the dependence on China based on the support of regional region. allies that share a common interest in tackling Chinese mercantilist practices. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 14.

SOUTH ASIA

The consequences of the American troops withdrawal from Afghanistan

Marina Corrêa fghanistan’s “endless war” has lasted 19 years and inauguration, Anthony Blinken – appointed Secretary of Acould have been completed in 2020. However, State – stated that they consider the President’s idea of the year was marked by advances and setbacks in the maintaining a counterterrorism force in the country. But country's peace negociations (started in February) and first, he will need to review the documents that he has not international interference (regional dispute between accessed yet. India, China, Pakistan, Russia, and Iran) in internal For regional security, the concern is the possibility of affairs. Considering that US troops' withdrawal is a the Taliban’s rise to power, considering Afghan political crucial point for the intra-Afghan dialogue, what are its weakness. Notably, India and Iran have already resumed consequences for the international security? their projects at the Chabahar Port, aiming to make it From the international point of view, the US an interface ring with Central Asia through land routes withdrawal from Afghanistan not only concerns and the Afghan market. However, its project needs to the countries mentioned previously but also NATO be assured by the Afghan National Security Forces members. The Organization has about 11.000 military support to protect the cargo from theft, diversion, and/ and civilians in loco, and it is dependent on the United or taxation by the insurgent group. Besides the economic States for logistical support, and it should totally remove cooperation for developing the CPEC (China-Pakistan its troops until May 2021, operation that is at the top of Economic Corridor) project, China and Pakistan are the agenda, according to NATO’s Secretary-General, concerned with terrorism, especially due to the border Jens Stoltenberg. However, one day before Joe Biden’s area and international insurgent alliances. Additionally, »

14 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 the Chinese concern is based on the possible actions that Finally, considering the complexity of the context, the Taliban may take in Xinjiang as it strongly repudiates regional and international cooperation is extremely repressive policies and actions taken by the government important to fulfill the current government's interests against the Uighur ethnic group, activists of the group, (economic, political and security) and mainly Muslim. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 14-15.

ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC Expectations for the Arctic: increased transport on the Northern Sea Route

Raphaella Costa n December 2020, a survey was released by The Barents 277 vessels in 2019. This record was mainly due to the IObserver about the continued growth of navigation on inauguration of a new automatic management system the Northern Sea Route (NSR), under Russian control, for maritime operations that will allow, according to in a year of crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Leonid Irlitsa, a significant growth in shipments in transit According to data published by the Russian state-owned through the NSR throughout 2021. nuclear power company Rosatom, the milestone of 32 The survey also reveals that most of the circulation million tons transported at the NSR in 2020 was reached in the far North is driven by the producers of Russian, on December 22nd. The number surpassed the original Chinese and Canadian commodities that export iron, oil, target of 29 million tons for the period, according to liquefied natural gas, and other fuels through the Arctic Leonid Irlitsa, deputy head of Atomflot. Thus, the Ocean. In its turn, the Russian shipments are mostly maritime transport at the NSR reveals a pattern growth in liquefied natural gas from Yamal LNG in Sabetta. recent years: in 2017, 10.7 million tons were transported, Simultaneously, large volumes of goods supply in 2018, the volume increased to 20.1 million, and, in new industrial projects in the country, including 2019, it tallied 31.5 million. Arctic LNG 2, in Gydan. It is noteworthy that, According to the Center of High Logistics of Norway starting with Russia's Arctic Strategy for the period in Norway, 62 ship transits were registered at the NSR until 2035, approved by President Vladimir Putin until December 9th, 2020, against 37 in 2019. Moreover, in October 2020, the government ambitiously the number of vessels that used the route in 2020 reached aims for NSR shipments to reach 90 million tons in 2030, a total of 331, while the Northern Sea Route registered as well as 130 million in 2035.

Source: Maritime Executive

DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n131.p 16. 15 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 SELECTED ARTICLES & DEFENSE NEWS REFERENCES

► The Dangers of Vaccine Disillusionment: A Viable Immunization Is Good News, but Realities ...... Won’t Match Expectations for Many Months FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Josh Michaud and Jen Kates ► Global Britain, global broker : A blueprint for the UK’s future international role. CHATHAM HOUSE, Robien Niblett ► The EU–China deal: geostrategic naivety or calculated opportunism? IISS, Sarah Raine ► How Covid-19 affected U.S China Military Signaling. ASIA MARITIME TRANSPARENCY INICIATIVE ► Chinese Navy Faces Overseas Basing Weakness, Report Says USNI NEWS, John Grady ► Anchoring the Caribbean: The Colombian Navy’s Growing Role in the Caribbean Region STABLE , Walker D. Mills ► The Biden Administration’s First Steps and the UN RUSI, Richard Gowan ► Pragmatic ordering: Informality, experimentation, and the maritime security agenda ACADEMIA.EDU, Christian Bueger

GEOCORRENTE CALENDAR JANUARY FEBRUARY World Economic Forum Meeting (Online conference, The Strategic Arms 25-29 Davos) 05 Reduction Treaty expires European Gas Virtual (Online General Elections in 26-28 conference, Áustria) 07 Ecuador Presidential Elections in 08 Somalia Mars 2020 (USA), Hope (UAE) and Tianwen-1 (CHI) 09-10 rovers arrive on Mars 15 General Elections in Niger Presidential Elections in 28 Kosovo

16 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 REFERENCES RISK MAP • The expectations for the Argentine external and maritime Deutsche Welle, Bonn, Nov. 21st 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 23rd 2021. policy HORVAT, A. ¿Vaca muerta bajo el mar? El trabajo hormiga que amplió el • Southern Gas Corridor: the advance of Azerbaijan's energy territorio argentino. La Nación, Buenos Aires, Jan. 6th 2021. Accessed on: geopolitics Jan. 7th 2021. COHEN, A. Bad news for Russia, As Gas From Azerbaijan Now Flows to CAVALLONE, Elena. Falkland Islands back in spotlight after exclusion from . Forbes, Jersey City, Jan 6th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 21st Brexit deal. Euronews, Brussels, Jan. 14th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 22nd 2021. 2021. MORNINGSTAR, R. BRYZA, M. BROWN, N. SHAFFER, B. Rapid Response: • Escalation of tensions in the dispute for Essequibo The Southern Gas Corridor opens today. Atlantic Council, Washington, U.S. openly supports Guyana: joint coast guard exercise. MercoPress, Dec. 31st 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 23rd 2021. , Jan. 12th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 23rd 2021. ROJAS, Ymarú. Maduro decreta establecer un nuevo territorio en una rica • The role of the Kazan submarine in the Russian geopolitical región en disputa con Guyana. ABC Internacional, Caracas, Jan. 8th 2021. interests Accessed on: Jan. 23rd 2021. EPISKOPOS, M. Russia's Yasen-M Submarine Is The Deadly Gift That Keeps On Giving. The National Interest, Washington, Jan. 13th 2021. Accessed • Joseph Biden and the resumption of the U.S. multilateral on: Jan. 25th 2021. orientation VAVASSEUR, X. Russia 's Kazan Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine Holds Joe Biden: Where does he stand on key issues?. BBC, London, Jan. 20th 2021. Torpedo Live-Firing In . Naval News, Paris, Dec. 24th 2020. Accessed on: Jan. 21st 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 15th 2021. KAVI, Aishvarya. Biden’s 17 Executive Orders and Other Directives in Detail. The New York Times, New York, Jan. 20th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 21st • Suganomics: Digital and green economy in Japan's 2021. post-COVID-19 future NYABIAGE, J. China to start buying soybeans from Tanzania as it seeks new • The dispute between United States and China over Central suppliers. South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, Oct. 29th 2020. America and The Caribbean Accessed on: Nov. 6th 2020. BELLO, L. Centroamérica na disputa geopolítica entre a China e os Estados SEIXAS, A. Em busca de segurança alimentar, China se prepara para a fase Unidos. Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies, São Paulo, pós- Covid- 19 e pode influenciar o agronegócio brasileiro. EMBRAPA, Oct. 22nd 2020. Accessed on: Jan. 21st 2021. Seropédica, Jun. 5th 2020. Accessed on: Nov. 6th 2020. SEMPLE, Kirk. China Extends Reach in the Caribbean, Unsettling the U.S.. The New York Times, New York, Nov. 8th 2020. Accessed on: Jan. 21st 2021. • The rise of Chinese military power: a new land-sea power YOSHIHARA, T. China as a Composite Land-Sea Power: a Geostrategic • The impacts of the AfCFTA, the world’s largest free trade Concept Revisited. CIMSEC, [s.l], Jan 6th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 22nd 2021. agreement YEO, M. China boosting naval footprint at its southern tip, new satellite images ADENUBI, T. Nigeria targets improvement in transport infrastrcture modes ahead suggest. DefenseNews, Fairfax, Jan. 21st 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 22nd of AfCFTA take off. Nigerian Tribune, Ibadan, Nov. 29th 2020. Accessed on: 2021. Dec. 4th 2020. KINYUA, B.G. What Will the African Continental Free Trade Area Mean for • U.S.-China relations: what comes after Trump? Shipping? The Maritime Executive, Fort Lauderdale, Jan. 4th 2021 KENNEDY, S. A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on Accessed on: Jan. 22nd 2021. China. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, Jan. 19th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 20th 2021. • Kuwait’s mediation in resolving the Gulf Crisis GEANEY, D. How the Biden Administration Should Counter China in Southeast FRAIHAT, I. Superpower and Small-State Mediation in the Qatar Gulf Crisis. Asia. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs - Air University Press, The International Spectator, Rome, May 15th 2020. Accessed on: Jan. Montgomery, Jan. 21st 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 22nd 2021. 16th 2021. SULIMAN, Adela; SMITH, Saphora; GUBASH Charlene. Saudi Arabia lifts • The consequences of the American troops withdrawal from blockade of Qatar in breakthrough agreement easing Gulf crisis. NBC News, Afghanistan New York, Jan. 5th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 18th 2021. SIDDIQUE, A. Afghans Hope For Course Correction Under Biden. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Praga, Jan. 20th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 20th 2021. • Norway, Sweden, and Finland develop their defense How to End a Forever War. The New York Times – The Editorial posture in the same direction Board, New York, Nov. 30th 2020. Accessed on: Dec. 3rd 2020. HULTQVIST, P. Sweden 's defense minister: Additional resources are coming to bolster national security, alliances. Defense News, Fairfax, 11th 2021. • Expectations for the Arctic: increased transport on the Accessed on: Jan. 20th 2021. Northern Sea Route “Finland, Norway and Sweden enhance their trilateral military operations BYE, H. Russia’s Updated Arctic Strategy: New Strategic Planning Document cooperation". Sweden Ministry of Defence, Stockholm, Sep. 23rd 2020. Approved. High North News, Bodo, Oct. 28th 2020. Accessed on: Nov. 18th Accessed on: Jan. 20th 2021. 2020. STAALESEN, A. In year of crisis, growth continues on Northern Sea Route. The • Greece expands its territorial waters before a meeting with Barents Observer, Kirkenes, Nov. 10th 2020. Accessed on: Nov. 18th 2020. Turkey Greek MP´s approve extension of territorial waters in Ionioan Sea. Al Jazeera, COVER: National Security Cutter Stone (WMSL 758) sails in the Doha, Jan. 20th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 22nd 2021. during builder’s sea trials in 2020. By: Lance Davis/HII Greece extends coastal claim to Ionian Sea waters, indirectly warns Turkey.

17 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 RISK MAP he map entitled “Top Global Risks” on the 3 rd page conflict's aggravation. Tof this Boletim was prepared by the Conjuncture Due to the increase in the number of cases Assessment Group (NAC) members of the Brazilian (infected, hospitalized and dead) of COVID-19, there Naval War College (EGN). The appearance of the was an adaptation in the analysis of the scenario. international phenomena on the map considers their In this way, a separate map was drawn up, with the relevance to Brazil, analyzed through criteria, namely countries with the highest number of infected people, the number of Brazilians living in the region, direct according to the latest WHO bulletin released until or indirect influence on the Brazilian economy, and the publishing date of this bulletin. Thus, the countries their impact on the Brazilian Strategic Surroundings. were painted in red or orange according to the number Besides, the interests of the United Nations Security of total cases. Council permanent members will be considered. The analyzes are redone at each Boletim edition, After selecting the phenomena, they are categorized aiming to reassess and update the demarcated regions as high risk (red) or medium risk (orange), following and the color used in each one. Therefore, the main parameters that reflect the severity of the risk, phenomena are always observed, distributed at namely: number of victims, the relevance of the high and medium risk. Below are links to the risks actors involved, impact on the global economy, and indicated on the map: the possibility of tensions escalation. The countries painted in gray represent conflicts under analysis, which may become red or orange, depending on the

► HIGH RISK:

• YEMEN — Civil war and humanitarian crisis: Lebanon: Interpol issues warrants for people involved in Beirut port explosion. Al-Monitor, Jan. 23rd 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• LEBANON — Structural crisis: Explosion heard in Riyadh as Saudi Arabia intercepts 'hostile target'. Middle East Eye, Jan 23rd 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• VENEZUELA — Structural crisis: EU states no longer recognise Guaido as Venezuela's interim president. Reuters, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• ETHIOPIA — Political crisis: Sudanese patrol shelled by Ethiopian forces: Report. Anadolu Agency, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• MOZAMBIQUE — Conflict between government and insurgent forces União Europeia pode treinar moçambicanos no combate ao terrorismo em Cabo Delgado. Voa, Jan. 22nd 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

► MEDIUM RISK:

• LYBIA — Civil war escalation: Libya's Interior and Defense Ministers instruct security intervention in Tarhouna. The Libya Observer, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• EASTERN MEDITERRANENAN — Increasing tensions between Greece and Turkey: Turkey and Greece resume talks to resolve maritime disputes. Arab News, Jan. 26th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• SOUTH AND , HONG KONG & TAIWAN — Chinese expansion on regions: US concerned after Chinese warplanes fly over Taiwan airspace. DW, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• SYRIA — Tensions in the Idlib region: U.S. Strategy in Syria Has Failed. Foreign Affairs, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• SINO-INDIAN BORDER - LAC standoff: India, China troops clash at Naku La in Sikkim, injuries on

18 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 both sides. The Times of India, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• BORDER BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN - Armed conflict in the region of Nagorno- Karabakh: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Delayed Resolution and Russia’ s Interests. Valdai Discussion Club, Jan. 13th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• BELARUS — Political crisis and tensions with the European bloc: The impossible stalemate : How the Belarus face off could go on and on. European Council on Foreign Relations, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

► MONITORING:

• RÚSSIA — Oposition protests: In Aleksei Navalny Protests , Russia Faces Biggest Dissent in Years. The New York Time, Jan 23rd 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• AFGHANISTAN — Regional instability: How can Afghanistan be peaceful in 2021? The Express Tribune, Jan. 22nd 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• UKRAINE - Russia-Ukraine cross-border tensions: Russia remains unwilling to end seven-year Ukraine war. Atlantic Council, Jan. 09th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• KYRGYZTAN — Political Crisis: Elections in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan : The Challenges of Retaining Power. Foreign Policy Research Institute, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

• CHINA AND RELATIONSHIP — Diplomatic crisis and economic sanctions: Australia calls for ‘restraint and peace’ as Chinese military escalates Taiwan incursions. The Sydney Morning Herald, Jan. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Jan. 26th 2021.

19 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021