BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE January 28th, 2021 ISSN 2446-7014 JOURNAL OF GEOPOLITICS AND OCEAN POLITICS YEAR 7 • Nº 131 ESCALATION OF TENSIONS IN THE DISPUTE FOR ESSEQUIBO THIS AND A FURTHER 14 ARTICLES IN THIS EDITION BOLETIM RESEARCHERS OF THE CONJUNCTURE GEOCORRENTE ASSESSMENT GROUP Boletim Geocorrente is a fortnightly publication written by the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC), which is part SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the Department of Research and Post-Graduation (SPP) at Ariane Dinalli Francisco (Universität Osnabrück) the Naval War College (EGN). NAC studies the International Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Conjuncture from a geopolitical framework, in order to supply Franco Napoleão A. de Alencastro Guimarães (Puc-Rio) Isadora Jacques de Jesus (Ufrj) the global demand for information, making it more accessible João Victor Marques Cardoso (Unirio) for the general public. Moreover, it seeks to intertwine society Vivian de Mattos Marciano (Uerj) into defense and security issues, and to disseminate updated knowledge of international conflicts and crisis to meet the Naval SOUTH AMERICA Staff's demands. Bruna Soares Corrêa de Souza (LaSalle) YEAR 7 • Nº 131 The research group responsible for this Boletim is Carlos Henrique Ferreira da Silva Júnior (Ufrj) composed of members from different areas of expertise, whose Gabriela de Assumpção Nogueira (Ufrj) multiple backgrounds and experiences provide a comprehensive Matheus Souza Galves Mendes (Egn) approach to the latest international issues. It seeks to analyse the Pedro Emiliano Kilson Ferreira (Univ. de Santiago) major themes, motivational factors and the main actors regarding the escalation of conflicts, ongoing crises and its outcomes. NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Thus, this journal aims to publish short articles concerning Jéssica Pires Barbosa Barreto (Egn) current issues about ten macro-regions in the globe: South Rafael Esteves Gomes (Ufrj) America, North and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Victor Cabral Ribeiro (Puc-Rio) Middle East and North Africa, Europe, Russia and former Victor Eduardo Kalil Gaspar Filho (Egn) USSR, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania, Arctic and Antarctic. Furthermore, some editions feature the ARCTIC & ANTARTIC "Special Topics" section. Ana Carolina Ferreira Lahr (Egn) Gabriele Marina Molina Hernandez (Uff) BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Puc-Rio) DIRECTOR Raphaella da Silva Dias Costa (Ufrj) Rear Admiral Paulo César Bittencourt Ferreira RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION EUROPE SUPERINTENDENT OF THE BRAZILIAN Melissa Rossi (Suffolk University) NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Nathália Soares de Lima do Vale (Uerj) Rear Admiral (Retd.) Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Thaïs Abygaëlle Dedeo (Université de Paris 3) Silva Victor Magalhães Longo de Carvalho Motta (Ufrj) EDITORIAL BOARD EAST ASIA EDITOR-IN-CHIEF João Pedro Ribeiro Grilo Cuquejo (Ibmec) Captain (RETD) Leonardo Faria de Mattos (Egn) Luís Filipe de Souza Porto (Ufrj) Marcelle Torres Alves Okuno (Ibmec) EXECUTIVE EDITOR Philipe Alexandre Junqueira (Uerj) Captain-Liutenant Bruno de Seixas Carvalho (Egn) Rodrigo Abreu de Barcellos Ribeiro (Ufrj) Vinicius Guimarães Reis Gonçalves (Ufrj) SCIENTIFIC EDITOR Captan (RETD) Francisco E. Alves de Almeida (Egn) MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ASSISTANT EDITORS Adel Bakkour (Ufrj) Jéssica Germano de Lima Silva (Egn) Ana Luiza Colares Carneiro (Ufrj) Noele de Freitas Peigo (Facamp) André Figueiredo Nunes (Eceme) Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Puc-Rio) Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (ufrj) Dominique Marques de Souza (Ufrj) GRAPHIC DESIGN Pedro da Silva Albit Penedo (Ufrj) Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) RUSSIA & FORMER USSR Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (ufrj) José Gabriel de Melo Pires (Ufrj) TRANSLATION AND REVIEW Luiza Gomes Guitarrari (Ufrj) Rodrigo Oliveira Dutra Marcílio (UFRJ) Pedro Mendes Martins (Eceme) Pérsio Glória de Paula (Uff) SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA PUBLICATION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES To publish in the Boletim, the author is required to be a researcher Iasmin Gabriele Nascimento dos Santos (ufrj) of the Current Geopolitics Group of NAC and submit his article Matheus Bruno Ferreira Alves Pereira (Ufrj) containing a maximum of 350 words to the peer review assessment Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) process. Vinícius de Almeida Costa (Egn) CONTACT SOUTH ASIA Brazilian Naval War College – Research and Post-Graduation João Miguel Villas-Boas Barcellos (Ufrj) Superintendency. Marina Soares Corrêa (Ufrj) Av. Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha – Urca - Postal Code: 22290-255 - Rebeca Vitória Alves Leite (Egn) Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brazil PHONE.: +55 (21) 2546-9394 | E-mail: [email protected] SPECIAL TOPICS This and other editions of BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE, in Alessandra Dantas Brito (Egn) portuguese and english, can be found at the Brazilian Naval War College Webpage and in our Google Drive Folder . 2 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE INDEX SOUTH AMERICA EAST ASIA The expectations for the Argentine external and maritime policy ...........................5 Suganomics: Digital and green economy in Japan's post-COVID-19 future ........12 Escalation of tensions in the dispute for Essequibo ...............................................6 The rise of Chinese military power: a new land-sea power ..................................13 U.S.-China relations: what comes after Trump? ...................................................14 NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH ASIA Joseph Biden and the resumption of the U.S. multilateral orientation ....................7 The dispute between United States and China over Central America and ............ The consequences of the American troops withdrawal from Afghanistan ............14 The Caribbean ........................................................................................................7 ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Expectations for the Arctic: increased transport on the............................................. The impacts of the AfCFTA, the world’s largest free trade agreement ..................8 Northern Sea Route ..............................................................................................15 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Kuwait’s mediation in resolving the Gulf Crisis .......................................................9 EUROPE Norway, Sweden, and Finland develop their defense posture in the same.............. direction ..................................................................................................................9 Selected Articles & Defense News......................... 16 Greece expands its territorial waters before a meeting with Turkey .....................10 Geocorrente Calendar............................................ 16 RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR References............................................................. 17 Southern Gas Corridor: the advance of Azerbaijan's energy geopolitics..............11 Risk Maps................................................................18 The role of the Kazan submarine in the Russian geopolitical interests ................12 TOP GLOBAL RISKS Without considering the COVID-19 pandemic For more informations on the criteria used, visit page 18. 3 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE SOUTH AMERICA COVID-19 MONITORING THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST CASES Data according to the "WHO COVID-19 Dashboard", published on January 28th, 2021. VACCINE MONITORING Sources: World Health Organization; The New York Times 4 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 131 • January | 2021 SOUTH AMERICA The expectations for the Argentine external and maritime policy Carlos Silva Júnior he Argentine presence in the South Atlantic goes program establishes, especially in the new outlined area Tbeyond political stances. Since the beginning of his for the continental shelf, to find hydrocarbon reserves. mandate in December 2019, Alberto Fernandez took As a dichotomy, Argentina finds expectations for its concrete measures to guarantee the country’s presence main maritime interest in a new international context. The and strengthen the national interests in the country’s Falkland Islands, South Georgia, and the South Sandwich maritime territory. The measures include the relaunch Islands compose the United Kingdom's overseas of the “Pampa Azul” program, the creation of a specific territories; however, their sovereignty is claimed by the national council for Maritime Affairs and the delineation South American country. With the Brexit’s completion, of the external limit of the continental shelf (Boletins the Argentine government hopes to gain support from the 113 and 121), as well as dealing with illegal fishing in its European Union (EU) in its claim, considering that the jurisdictional waters (Boletins 117 and 128). bloc was once aligned to the United Kingdom since the Additionally, the upkeep of actions carried out British country's overseas territories were also inserted in the last year is notable, especially in the political- in the bloc. economic field. Recently, the Yacimientos Petrolíferos Furthermore, the strained relations among the Fiscales (YPF), an Argentine state oil company, and United Kingdom, EU, and the Falklands and Malvina the Norwegian company Equinor decided to join Shell Islands (UK) is directly related to the absence of a trade in the first deep-water exploration in the country, in agreement that preserves the commercial and fiscal the CAN100