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Zimbabwe-HIV-Estimates Report 2018

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Zimbabwe-HIV-Estimates Report 2018 ZIMBABWE NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONAL HIV ESTIMATES REPORT 2017 AIDS & TB PROGRAMME MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND CHILD CARE July 2018 Foreword The Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC) in collaboration with National AIDS Council (NAC) and support from partners, produced the Zimbabwe 2017 National, Provincial and District HIV and AIDS Estimates. The UNAIDS, Avenir Health and NAC continued to provide technical assistance and training in order to build national capacity to produce sub-national estimates in order to track the epidemic. The 2017 Estimates report gives estimates for the impact of the programme. It provide an update of the HIV and AIDS estimates and projections, which include HIV prevalence and incidence, programme coverages, AIDS-related deaths and orphans, pregnant women in need of PMTCT services in the country based on the Spectrum Model version 5.63. The 2017 Estimates report will assist the country to monitor progress towards the fast track targets by outlining programme coverage and possible gaps. This report will assist programme managers in accounting for efforts in the national response and policy makers in planning and resource mobilization. Brigadier General (Dr.) G. Gwinji Permanent Secretary for Health and Child Care Page | i Acknowledgements The Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC) would want to acknowledge effort from all individuals and organizations that contributed to the production of these estimates and projections. We are particularly grateful to the National AIDS Council (NAC) for funding the national and sub-national capacity building and report writing workshop. We are also grateful to the National HIV and AIDS Estimates Working Group for working tirelessly to produce this report. The following organizations are members of the TWG which is led by the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC) AIDS & TB Unit; United Nations Joint Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS), National AIDS Council (NAC), Department of Community Medicine, University of Zimbabwe (UZ), Biomedical Research and Training Institute (BRTI), Imperial College London, Avenir Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Zimbabwe, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), World Health Organization (WHO), Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation (EGPAF) and Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT). This estimates report is intended to assist programme managers, policy makers and advocates in understanding the effects of funding levels and allocation patterns on program impact. It also helps understand epidemic impact on sustainable development. It outlines trends in incidence, prevalence, programme coverage and need. Dr. O Mugurungi Director, AIDS and TB Program Page | ii Table of Contents Foreword .......................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. iv List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv List of Annexure ...............................................................................................................................v Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... vii 1. Background ............................................................................................................................... 1 2. Methodology for HIV Estimates in Zimbabwe ............................................................................... 3 The AIDS Impact Model (AIM) of Spectrum ..................................................................................... 3 The HIV Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) ......................................................................... 5 3. Results.................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Prevalence ......................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Population Living with HIV in Zimbabwe ............................................................................ 13 3.3 HIV Incidence ........................................................................................................................... 16 3.4 New HIV Infections ................................................................................................................. 17 3.5 AIDS Related Deaths ............................................................................................................... 22 3.6 Programme Coverage .............................................................................................................. 24 4 Programme needs ............................................................................................................................ 27 5 Impact of the National AIDS Response ........................................................................................ 28 6 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 31 Annexes ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 Page | iii List of Tables Table 1: Estimated Prevalence in Adults and Children .................................................................. 8 Table 2: Estimated Number of People Living with HIV & AIDS ................................................... 13 Table 3: HIV Incidence by province .............................................................................................. 17 Table 4: Estimated number of new infections ............................................................................... 17 Table 5: Trend in AIDS Related Deaths ........................................................................................ 22 Table 6: National programme coverage ....................................................................................... 24 Table 7: Programme ART coverage by province ........................................................................... 24 Table 8: Estimated number of people in need of ART and PMTCT ............................................. 27 List of Figures Figure 1: Structure of child model in Spectrum AIDS Impact Module .......................................... 4 Figure 2: HIV Estimates and Projections Process (Model Input and Outputs) ............................. 5 Figure 3: HIVE Model Estimates Process (Model Input and Outputs) .......................................... 6 Figure 4: Trends in Adults (15-49 years) HIV Prevalence with ZDHS data points ........................ 9 Figure 5: Estimated HIV Prevalence in Adults by Province ..........................................................10 Figure 6: Estimated Prevalence by Province ................................................................................. 11 Figure 7: Estimated Prevalence by District ................................................................................... 12 Figure 8: National HIV Population in Zimbabwe ......................................................................... 14 Figure 9: Estimated Number of Adults (15+ years) living with HIV & AIDS by Province ............ 14 Figure 10: Estimated number of children living with HIV/AIDS by Province .............................. 15 Figure 11: National HIV Incidence, Ages 15-49 ............................................................................. 16 Figure 12: Estimated Total New HIV Infections by Province ........................................................ 18 Figure 13: Estimated New Adult HIV Infections by Province ....................................................... 18 Figure 14: Estimated New Child HIV Infections by Province ....................................................... 19 Figure 15: Estimated New Adult HIV Infections by Districts (15+) ............................................. 20 Figure 16: Estimated New Children HIV infection by districts (0-14) .......................................... 21 Figure 17: Trend in Estimated AIDS Related Deaths ................................................................... 22 Figure 18: Estimated AIDS Related Deaths by Province .............................................................. 23 Figure 19: Corelation between number of PLHIV and AIDS related deaths ................................ 23 Figure 20: Adult ART Coverage by district ................................................................................... 26 Figure 21: Projections against target ............................................................................................ 28 Figure 22: HIV infections averted
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