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Prvi Nacionalni Izvještaj Bosne I Hercegovine U Skladu Sa Okvirnom Konvencijom Ujedinjenih Nacija O Klimatskim Promjenama

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Prvi Nacionalni Izvještaj Bosne I Hercegovine U Skladu Sa Okvirnom Konvencijom Ujedinjenih Nacija O Klimatskim Promjenama PRVI NACIONALNI IZVJEŠTAJ BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE U SKLADU SA OKVIRNOM KONVENCIJOM UJEDINJENIH NACIJA O KLIMATSKIM PROMJENAMA Banja Luka, oktobar 2009. godine 3 PRVI NACIONALNI IZVJEŠTAJ BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE U SKLADU SA OKVIRNOM KONVENCIJOM UJEDINJENIH NACIJA O KLIMATSKIM PROMJENAMA (UNFCCC) Banja Luka, oktobar 2009. godine Autori: Projektni odbor: Goran Vukmir, Ljiljana Stanišljević, Mehmed Cero, Merzuk Cacan, Milena Marković, Mladen Rudež, Ozren Laganin, Radmila Kostić, Senad Oprašić, Suada Ćatović i Tomislav Lukić. UNDP BiH: Goran Vukmir Igor Palandžić Siniša Rodić Nikola Arežina Stručni tim za INC: Borislav Jakšić, koordinator projekta Martin Tais, vođa tima Petar Gvero, vođa tima Aleksandar Knežević, vođa tima Aida Muminović, Amila Selmanagić, Anđa Kalem - Perić, Andrea Marković, Azrudin Husika, Berislav Blagojević, Borko Sorajić, Bosiljka Stojanović, Đorđe Vojinović, Dragica Aksić, Ermina Iljezović, Esena Kupusović, Goran Trbić, Gordana Tica, Hamid Ćustović, Jasmin Bučo, Jasmina Ćomić, Kasim Tatić, Lazo Roljić, Mediha Voloder, Merima Karabegović, Mihajlo Marković, Milovan Kotur, Murat Prašo, Nada Rudan, Predrag Ilić, Radislav Tošić, Ranka Radić, Sabina Hodžić, Samir Đug, Saša Papuga, Selma Čengić, Semin Petrović, Stela Pavlović, Susan Legro, Vladimir Bjelić, Željko Majstorović i Zijad Jagodić 4 Prvi nacionalni izvještaj Bosne i Hercegovine u skladu sa Okvirnom konvencijom Ujedinjenih nacija o klimatskim promjenama SADRŽAJ UVOD....................................................................................................................... 11 Uvod . ....................................................................................................................... 13 Okolnosti u državi . ............................................................................................................. 13 Izračunavanje emisija stakleničkih gasova. 14 Ranjivost i adaptacija na klimatske promjene . ...................................................................................... 16 Procjenjivanje potencijala za ublažavanje klimatskih promjena u BiH . .................................................................. 19 Ostale relevantne aktivnosti. 20 Ograničenja i nedostaci i povezane tehnologije i potrebe kapaciteta .................................................................... 21 Međunarodna saradnja . ........................................................................................................ 22 Preporuke i sljedeći koraci . 22 1. Okolnosti u državi . ..................................................................................................... 23 1.1. 1.1. Struktura i institucionalni okvir . .......................................................................................... 23 1.1.1. Odgovornosti ministarstava i drugih tijela za pitanja životne sredine . .......................................................... 24 1.1.2. Razvojna strategija Bosne i Hercegovine i Nacionalni akcioni plan za životnu sredinu. 25 1.1.3. Statistika životne sredine . ............................................................................................... 25 1.2. Geografske karakteristike . 26 1.3. Stanovništvo. 27 1.4. Karakteristike klime. 28 1.5. Analiza sektora. 29 1.5.1. Privreda i industrija . .................................................................................................... 29 1.5.2. Energija. 30 1.5.3. Transport . ............................................................................................................ 32 1.5.4. Poljoprivreda . ......................................................................................................... 34 1.5.5. Šumarstvo . ........................................................................................................... 35 1.5.6. Upravljanje otpadom . .................................................................................................. 36 1.5.7. Upravljanjevodnim resursima . ........................................................................................... 36 1.5.8. Zdravstvo . ............................................................................................................ 38 1.5.9. Obrazovanje. 39 1.6. Strategija smanjenja siromaštva . ......................................................................................... 40 1.7. Izazovi dugoročnog razvoja . ............................................................................................. 40 2. Proračun emisije stakleničkih gasova . ..................................................................................... 42 2.1. Uvod . ................................................................................................................ 42 2.2. Sistem prikupljanjai obrade podataka. 42 2.2.1. Proračun emisionih faktora. 43 2.2.2. Izvještavanje. 44 2.2.3. Kontrola kvaliteta (Quality Control)i osiguranje kvaliteta (Quality Assurance) . ................................................... 44 2.3. Metodologija . ......................................................................................................... 45 2.3.1. Proces izrade inventara. 45 2.3.2. Sistem CORINAIR. 45 2.3.3. Kodovi SNAP i SPLIT . ................................................................................................... 46 2.3.4. Kodovi goriva. 46 Prvi nacionalni izvještaj Bosne i Hercegovine u skladu sa Okvirnom konvencijom Ujedinjenih nacija o klimatskim promjenama 5 2.3.5. Opće metode koje se koriste. 47 2.4. Rezultati proračuna emisije GHG 1990.. 47 2.4.1. Emisija ugljen-dioksida (CO2)........................................................................................... 47 2.4.2. Energetika. 49 2.4.3. Industrijski procesi. 51 2.4.4. Ponori . ............................................................................................................... 51 2.4.5. Emisija metana (CH4).................................................................................................. 52 2.4.6. Emisija azotnog oksida (N2O)........................................................................................... 52 2.5. Emisija indirektnih stakleničkih gasova. 53 2.6. Nesigurnost proračuna i verifikacija . ...................................................................................... 53 2.6.1. Nesigurnost proračuna . ................................................................................................. 53 2.6.2. Kvalitativna analiza nesigurnosti u proračunima emisija gasa staklenika u Bosni i Hercegovini za 1990. godinu. 54 2.6.3. Verifikacija procjena . ................................................................................................... 55 3. Ranjivost i adaptacija na klimatske promjene . .............................................................................. 56 3.1. Izvori informacija o klimi i klimatskim promjenama u BiH. 56 3.1.2. Klimatski uslovi u BiH . .................................................................................................. 56 3.2. Klimatska varijabilnost i procjena ekstremnih događaja ....................................................................... 58 3.2.1 Projekcije budućih klimatskih promjena u BiH. 58 3.2.1.1. Projektirane regionalne promjene temperature iz EH5OM ..................................................................... 58 3.2.1.2. Projektirane regionalne promjene u padavinama prema EH5OM ............................................................... 58 3.2.2. Ostale projekcije budućih klimatskih promjena u BiH. 59 3.2.2.1. Promjene temperature iz različitih drugih izvora. 59 3.2.2.2. Promjena u količini padavina iz raznih ostalih izvora . ........................................................................ 59 3.3. Odabir adekvatnih pristupa i metoda za razvoj scenarija klimatskih promjena . .................................................. 66 3.3.1. Predloženi koraci za proširenje scenarija klimatskih promjena uključivanjem nacionalnih uslova . ................................... 66 3.4. Pocjena ranjivosti. 67 3.4.1. Biodiverzitet i ekosistemi . ............................................................................................... 67 3.4.1.1. Uticaji na ekosisteme . .................................................................................................. 67 3.4.1.2. Uticaj na vrste biljaka. 68 3.4.1.3. Uticaj na biljne zajednice . ............................................................................................... 69 3.4.1.4. Uticaj na biocenozu tla . ................................................................................................. 70 3.4.1.5. Uticaj na biocenoze slatkih voda . ......................................................................................... 70 3.4.1.6. Uticaj na faunu. 70 3.4.1.7. Uticaji na obalske ekosisteme . ........................................................................................... 71 3.4.1.8. Uticaji na zaštićena područja . ............................................................................................ 71 3.4.2. Vodni resursi i obalne zone. 71 3.4.2.1. Uticaj na količinu padavina i oticanje . ..................................................................................... 71 3.4.2.3. Uticaj na sisteme upravljanja vodama . .................................................................................... 75 3.4.3. Poljoprivreda . ......................................................................................................... 76 3.4.3.1 Opći uticaj na poljoprivredu . ............................................................................................
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