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Development of Fsutms Lifecycle and Seasonal Resident Trip Production Models for Florida Urban Areas

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Development of Fsutms Lifecycle and Seasonal Resident Trip Production Models for Florida Urban Areas DEVELOPMENT OF FSUTMS LIFECYCLE AND SEASONAL RESIDENT TRIP PRODUCTION MODELS FOR FLORIDA URBAN AREAS Contract No. BC532 Prepared for State Transportation Planner Systems Planning Office Florida Department of Transportation 605 Suwannee Street, MS 19 Tallahassee, FL 32399-0450 Prepared in Cooperation with the State of Florida Department of Transportation by Fang Zhao, Lee-Fang Chow, Min-Tang Li, Albert Gan Lehman Center for Transportation Research Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Florida International University 10555 West Flagler Street Miami, Florida 33174 (305) 348-3821, (305) 348-2802 (fax) E-mail: [email protected] March 2003 Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. Supplemental Report for BC532 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date TRIP GENERATION MPO SURVEY SUMMARY – A March 2003 SUPPLMENTAL REPORT 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Fang Zhao, Lee-Fang Chow, Min-Tang Li, Albert Gan 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Lehman Center for Transportation Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida International University, 11. Contract or Grant No. Miami, Florida 33199 Contract No. BC532 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Systems Planning Office, Florida Department of Transportation, Final Report 650 Suwannee Street, MS 19, Tallahassee, FL 32399-0450 March 2000 – March 2003 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 99700-3596-119 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstract As part of the project, a survey of Florida Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) was conducted in 2001. The survey results were summarized in this report. The survey covered issues in the following areas: o Agencies responsible for developing socioeconomic data; o Frequency of model updates; o Existing travel survey data; o Anticipated survey in the future o Data and methods used to estimate or project socioeconomic variables for standard FSUTMS model; o Data and methods used to estimate or project socioeconomic variables for lifestyle FSUTMS models; o Problems with special generators; and o Possible improvements to trip generation models. Accuracy of socioeconomic data, availability of household survey data, a lack of standard methodologies and procedures for forecasting lifestyle variables, special trip generators, the inability to handle trip chaining, and trip rates for seasonal and retired households were identified as problems requiring more attention. 17. Key Word 18. Distribution Statement Trip Generation, Lifestyle Models, Lifestyle Variables, Variable Forecasting, Retired Households, Seasonal Households, Household Survey, MPO. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified. Unclassified. 148 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank many people who helped in this study, especially Mr. Mike Neidhart of Volusia County MPO, Mr. Glen Ahlert of Lee County, Mr. Imran Ghani of FDOT District 2, Mr. Daniel Lamb of FDOT District 7, Mr. Wade White of Gannet Fleming, Mr. Robert Shiffer of PBSJ for providing survey data used in this study and related technical reports. The project team is also grateful to the members of the Florida Model Task Force for their technical guidance and advice. Special thanks go to Mr. Imran Ghani and Mr. Harry Gramling, the project managers, for their guidance, support, and help throughout the study. This project was funded by the Research Center of the Florida Department of Transportation. The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the State of Florida Department of Transportation. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................ ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... xii 1. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW....................................................................................................3 2.1 FSUTMS Trip Production....................................................................................... 3 2.2 Lifestyle Model Structures...................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Lifestyle Trip Production Models in Florida .............................................. 4 2.2.1.1 Tampa Bay Regional Model ........................................................... 4 2.2.1.2 The Southeast Florida Lifestyle Model........................................... 6 2.2.2 Lifestyle Trip Production Models Outside Florida..................................... 8 2.2.2.1 Atlanta Metropolitan Area .............................................................. 8 2.2.2.2 Metropolitan Detroit Region........................................................... 9 2.2.2.3 Metropolitan Phoenix Region....................................................... 10 2.2.2.4 Metropolitan Portland Region....................................................... 10 2.2.2.5 Reading, Pennsylvania.................................................................. 11 2.2.2.6 Metropolitan San Francisco Bay Region ...................................... 12 2.2.2.7 Metropolitan Seattle Regional Model........................................... 13 2.2.3 Lee County Trip Generation Model for Seasonal Residents .................... 13 2.3 Model Evaluation Criteria..................................................................................... 14 2.3.1 Variable Selection..................................................................................... 14 2.3.1.1 One-way Analysis of Variances (ANOVA) ................................. 15 2.3.1.2 Descriptive Analysis ..................................................................... 15 2.3.1.3 Cluster Analysis............................................................................ 16 2.3.1.4 Automatic Interaction Detector (AID) Program........................... 16 2.3.2 Comparison with Traditional Models ....................................................... 16 2.3.3 Data Availability....................................................................................... 17 2.3.4 Temporal Stability.................................................................................... 18 2.3.5 Spatial Transferability............................................................................... 19 2.3.6 Variable Forecastibility............................................................................. 20 3. A BRIEF SUMMARY OF A TRIP GENERATION MPO SURVEY..............................24 3.1 Data Collection..................................................................................................... 24 3.2 Socioeconomic Data Development When Base Year Is a Census Year............... 28 3.3 Socioeconomic Data Development and Projection When Base Year Is a Non-Census Year.................................................................................................. 28 3.4 Summary of Survey Findings ............................................................................... 31 4. DATA USED FOR STUDY..............................................................................................32 5. CALIBRATION AND EVALUATION OF TRIP PRODUCTION MODELS FOR HBW TRIPS ......................................................................................................................34 iii 5.1 Characteristics of Survey and Census Data .......................................................... 34 5.2 Geographical Districts.......................................................................................... 41 5.3 Average HBW Trip Rates in Survey Districts...................................................... 43 5.4 Survey District and Region-Wide Total HBW Trips............................................ 44 5.5 Region-Wide Mean Trip Rates ............................................................................. 45 5.6 Calibration of Trip Rates and Comparisons of Model Estimates with Expected Number of Trips.................................................................................... 46 5.7 Demographics and Benefits of Lifestyle Models.................................................. 53 6. COMPARSION OF MDOELS FOR HOME-BASED NON-WORK TRIPS...................57 6.1 Home-Based Shopping Trips................................................................................ 58 6.2 Home-Based Social and Recreational Trips ......................................................... 66 6.3 Home-Based Other Trips ...................................................................................... 74 6.4 Summary............................................................................................................... 82 7. SPATIAL TRANSFERABILITY OF TRIP RATES ........................................................83 7.1 Spatial Transferability of HBW Trip Rates .......................................................... 83 7.2 Spatial Transferability of HBNW Trip Rates ....................................................... 85 8. ANALYSIS OF TRIP RATES OF SEASONAL HOUSEHOLDS...................................91 8.1 Analysis of Trip
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