Latino Party Affiliation and Voter Registration Rates in the State, Central Florida, and South Florida
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City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies Centers & Institutes 2016 The Changing Demographics of Florida’s Latino Electorate: Latino Party Affiliation andoter V Registration Rates in the State, Central Florida, and South Florida Laird W. Bergad Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/clacls_pubs/14 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] The Changing Demographics of Florida’s Latino Electorate Latino Party Affiliation and Voter Registration Rates in the State, Central Florida, and South Florida Laird W. Bergad Distinguished Professor Department of Latin American, Latino and Puerto Rican Studies Lehman College Ph.D. Program in History Graduate Center City University of New York Director, Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies About the CNN en Españ ol and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies Studies Partnership: Graduate Center CNN en Españ ol (CNNe) and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino City University of New York 365 Fifth Avenue Studies (CLACLS) at the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), have Room 5419 partnered to provide an exclusive focus on Latino voters in America, the fastest New York, New York 10016 growing minority voting bloc that could play an instrumental role in determining 212-817-8438 the next President of the United States. Through rigorous academic research generated by CLACLS’ Latino Data Project, CNN en Españ ol will broadcast detailed [email protected] reports about Latinos in the American elections over several multi‐media platforms http://clacls.gc.cuny.edu/ geared toward Spanish‐speaking audiences around the world, including 4 million U.S. households. CLACLS/CNN en Español - Report 3 –March 2016 The Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies is a research institute that works for the advancement of the study of Latin America, the Caribbean, and Latinos in the United States in the doctoral programs at the CUNY Graduate Center. One of its major priorities is to provide funding and research opportunities to Latino students at the Ph.D. level. The Center established and helps administer an interdisciplinary specialization in Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies in the Masters of Arts in Liberal Studies program. The Latino Data Project was developed with the goal of making information available on the dynamically growing Latino population of the United States and especially New York City through the analysis of extant data available from a variety of sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Institute for Health, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and state and local-level data sources. All Latino Data Project reports are available at http://clacls.gc.cuny.edu For additional information you may contact the Center at 212-817-8438 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Staff: Laird W. Bergad, Distinguished Professor, Department of Latin American, Latino and Puerto Rican Studies, Lehman College, Ph.D. Program in History, Executive Director, CLACLS Teresita Levy, Associate Professor, Department of Latin American, Latino and Puerto Rican Studies, Lehman College, Associate Director Mila Burns Nascimento, Administrative Director Justine Calcagno, Ph.D., Director of Quantitative Research Victoria Stone-Cadena, Director of Outreach and Special Projects Lawrence Cappello, Research Associate Karen Okigbo, Research Associate Rafael Portela, Research Associate Sebastián Villamizar-Santamaría, Research Associate Copyright @ 2016 Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies Room 5419 Graduate Center City University of New York 365 Fifth Avenue New York, New York 10016 212-817-8438 [email protected] http://clacls.gc.cuny.edu/ ALL RIGHTS RESERVED The Changing Demographics of the Florida’s Latino Electorate 3 Table of Contents Title Methodological Note ........................................................................................................................ 6 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 7 The Growth of the Latino Population and Electorate in Florida, 1990 - 2014 ................................... 9 Latino National Subgroups Comprising the Florida Population and Electorate, 1990 - 2014 ......... 11 Registration and Voting Rates among Latinos in Florida, 1996 - 2016 .......................................... 15 Why do Latinos in Florida Register and Vote at Higher Rates than the National Average? ........... 18 The Age Factor .................................................................................................................... 18 The Sex Factor .................................................................................................................... 21 The Educational Attainment Factor ..................................................................................... 22 Voting Patterns by Florida’s Latino Nationalities in Past Presidential Elections ............................. 24 Voter Registration and Party Affiliation among Florida’s Latinos 2006 - 2014 ................................ 27 Central and South Florida Counties ............................................................................................... 28 Central Florida ..................................................................................................................... 30 South Florida ....................................................................................................................... 34 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 38 Guide to Figures Figure 1. The Latino Population of Florida, 1990 - 2014 ................................................................ 10 Figure 2. The Latino Electorate of Florida, 1990 - 2014. ................................................................ 10 Figure 3. The Latino Population of Florida by Largest Nationalities, 1990 ‐ 2014 .......................... 12 Figure 4. The Latino Electorate of Florida by Largest Nationalities, 1990 ‐ 2014 ........................... 13 Figure 5. Voter Registration Rates among Latinos as a Percentage of Total Florida Latino Electorate, 1996 ‐ 2016 ............................................................................................ 16 Figure 6. Percentage of Florida Latino Electorate Voting, 1996 ‐ 2016 .......................................... 17 CLACLS-CNNe Report 3 March 2016 The Changing Demographics of the Florida’s Latino Electorate 4 Figure 7. Latinos as a Percentage of Total Voting Population in Florida, 1996 ‐ 2016 ................... 17 Figure 8. Florida and United States Latino Electorates by Age Category, 2014 ............................. 18 Figure 9. Percent of the Latino Electorate in Florida and United States Registered for the 2012 Presidential Election by Age Category ................................................................. 19 Figure 10. Percent of the Latino Electorate Registered to Vote in Florida and United States which Voted in the 2012 Presidential Election by Age Category .............................. 19 Figure 11. Percent of the Latino Electorate in Florida and United States which Voted in the 2012 Presidential Election by Age Category ................................................................. 20 Figure 12. Percent of the Electorate in Florida 45 Years of Age and Older by Latino Nationality, 2014 ................................................................................................................. 20 Figure 13. Percent of the Electorate in Florida which was Female by Latino Nationality, 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 14. Percent of the Eligible Electorate in the United States which Voted in the 2012 Presidential Election by Educational Attainment Level ............................................... 23 Figure 15. Educational Attainment Level of Latino Electorate in Florida and United States, 2014 (Population 25 Years of Age and Older) ......................................................... 23 Figure 16. Percent of the Electorate in Florida which had Achieved an Associates Degree or Higher by Latino Nationality, 2014. ..................................................................... 24 Figure 17. Preference for Democratic Candidate among Florida Cubans in Presidential Elections, 2000 ‐ 2012 (According to Exit Poll Data) ........................................................... 25 Figure 18. Preference for President Barack Obama in 2012 Presidential Election among Florida's Latino Voters by Nationality (According to Exit Poll Data) ......................... 26 Figure 19. Latinos Registered to Vote in Florida by Party Affiliation 2006 - 2014 ........................... 27 Figure 20. Latino Population of Central Florida, 1990 – 2014 Largest Nationalities ........................ 31 Figure 21. Latino Population of Central Florida, 1990 – 2014 Largest Nationalities (in percentage of all Latinos) ..............................................................................................