th 5 European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
ECSS 2009 Abstracts by session
ECSS 2009 - 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12-16 October 2009 - Landshut – GERMANY List of the abstract accepted for presentation at the conference: O – Oral presentation P – Poster presentation
Session 11: Socio-economic aspects, e.g. damage analysis, wind speed vs. damage relation
Page Type Abstract Title Author(s)
Hail and wind damage in Finland: Societal impacts and J. Rauhala, J.-P. Tuovinen, D. M. 337 O preparedness Schultz Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of 339 O climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a S. Schmidt, C. Kemfert, P. Höppe new approach to adjusting storm losses Media communication of extreme events: a case study for 341 O L. H. Nunes Brazil Comparisons of low level radar winds, in situ 1-m winds, O J. Wurman, K. Kosiba and damage in tornadoes Reconstruction of near-surface tornado wind fields from 343 O V. Beck, N. Dotzek forest damage Radar parameters determining the kinetic energy of hail J. L. Sánchez, B. Gil, L. López, E. 345 O precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula García-Ortega A. Guerrero, M. van de Poll, K. 347 O The RMS U.S. and Canada Severe Convective Storm Model Nzerem Research aspects of Crisis Prevention and Risk & Crisis 349 O Management in Enterprises - Empirical data from A. Kulmhofer Austrian Enterprises N. Wever, G. Groen, R. Jilderda, O Climate and climate scenarios for Mainport Schiphol R. Leander, D. Wolters Cost-benefit Analysis of the Hail Suppression Project in 351 P M. Mitic, Z. Vucinic, Z. Babic Serbia Impact of two severe storm systems over the São Paulo D. H. Candido, L. H. Nunes, G. 353 P State, Brazil Held Variability of Indo-Pacific tropical cyclone activity and 355 P C. Welker, N. Dotzek, E. Faust related socioeconomic disasters I. Gladich, I. Gallai, D. B. 357 P Severe Local Storms Cultural Heritage Giaiotti, G. M. Morgan, F. Stel Fruitful cooperation between NMS and amateur M. Lacinová, J. Drahokoupil, L. P stormchasers Ronge An illustrated verbal description of the TORRO- and Fujita- B. Feuerstein, N. Dotzek, P. 359 P scales adapted for Central Europe considering building Groenemeijer, A. M. Holzer, E. structure and vegetation characteristics Dirksen, M. Hubrig, E. Rauch
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336 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12–16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IN FINLAND: SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND PREPAREDNESS J. Rauhala,1 J.-P. Tuovinen,1 and David M. Schultz1,2
1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 2Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics, Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
(Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION (3% or 6 cases). Understanding the consequences of severe On 5 July 2002, a severe thunderstorm outbreak convective storms on society helps develop preparedness for caused a 450-km-long damage area in Finland (Punkka et al. such events. First, understanding the severity and type of 2006). Most of the reported wind damage was F1 intensity, accidents caused by past events can guide the formulation of although a few small areas of F2 damage were also reported. guidance for authorities and the public. This information The Rescue Services performed 445 weather-related rescue may be also used to draft call-to-action statements, which operations. In the worst-hit province, the total number of may be included in a warning message. Second, knowing the rescue operations was 14 times the average (compared to the typical impacts of events can help authorities make site- average of the first Friday of July 1999–2001 and 2003– specific action plans for people, private and public 2005), and the number of Rescue Services rescue operations properties, and outdoor venues. All these preparedness stayed high for few days; the next day had four-fold the measures may be used during a severe-weather event to number of reports and the second day after the event still prevent casualties. Additionally, if severe weather is had double the number of reports. forecast, impact information can be used to mitigate Of the 445 rescue operations during 5 July 2002, 325 property damage and ensure society’s faster recovery by (73%) were related to falling trees, most commonly trees on planning ahead for the resources needed for both rescue road (54% or 178), trees on electric power lines (20% or 65), work and repairing damaged infrastructures. and trees on buildings (20% or 65). In some instances, the The potential impacts of a specific severe-weather trees were blocking a 100-m wide area of the road, making event are also influenced by local effects like topography, the rescue work difficult. vegetation, construction standards, and local human Apparently, the 26 August storm did not have an behaviour. Therefore, the local effects should be considered impact on the number of road accidents, as the statistics when defining the typical impacts or safety rules for a from the Finnish Motor Insurers´ Centres did not have certain area. This study describes the basis for defining higher than the average number of accidents in the affected localized call-to-action statements and impact descriptions area. However, coincident with the squall-line passage, four of convective storms producing wind or hail damage in traffic accidents with four injuries were reported to the Finland. Rescue Services. This included a truck crashing into a This presentation consists of two parts. In the first falling tree and a tank truck falling over. On 5 July, the part, we studied two convective storms that caused major insurance statistics showed an increase in the number of wind damage in Finland to understand the impacts to society accidents at the worst-hit area, where there was a 70% of these types of convective windstorms. In the second part, increase compared to the average (first Friday of July). The we studied media reports of the damage from 60 large-hail traffic accidents included two cases of cars crashing into cases and one severe-hail outbreak case in detail. In both fallen trees on the road and, in several cases, a car was parts, the data comes from the rescue operations of the trapped between fallen trees. The 5 July outbreak also Finnish Rescue Services and the statistics of paid included two cases where the railway was blocked by fallen compensations from the Finnish Motor Insurers´ Centres. trees. The impact description is followed by convective wind Most of the other reported casualties were also storm and severe-hail call-to-action statements. related to falling trees. On 26 August, one person was reported injured during tree-clearing work and, on 5 July, II. IMPACTS OF CONVECTIVE WINDSTORMS one person was injured when hit by a falling tree. In another On 26 August 2005, a severe frontal rainband caused location, an electric shock was reported shortly after the widespread wind damage in western Finland. Most of the wind damage. On 5 July, 5 cases of small boaters on lakes damage was caused by straight-line winds, although 9 short- were reported in distress, a common summertime problem lived tornadoes were also reported (Rauhala and Punkka on the more than 180,000 lakes in Finland. 2008). The reported damage was mostly F1 intensity. The The rescue operations related to building damage Finnish Rescue Services performed 377 weather-related were similar in both events and included detached roofs, an rescue operations across five provinces. The number of overturned tent, and, in one case, a collapsed outbuilding. rescue operations was 3–4 times the daily average. Most Several people were trapped in elevators because of power (62% or 234) of the rescue operations during the event failures. On 5 July, the Emergency Response Centres concerned danger caused by fallen trees. Most often (53% or suffered a power failure, telephone-line overload, and the 124) the fallen trees blocked road traffic, but cases also incapacity to transfer all assignments. concerned fallen trees over electric power line (21% or 49 cases), over a building (12%, 28 cases), or on top of a car
337 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12–16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
III. IMPACTS OF HAIL STORMS impacts in Finland, and, in co-operation with the Emergency Regardless of size, hail can flatten crops or make Services College, we have developed convective wind and roads hazardous to drive on with slippery conditions and hail storm call-to-action statements that can be included in rapidly decreasing visibility. At least seven injuries and one warning messages (Table 2). The purpose of the call-to- death have been reported in traffic accidents caused by hail action statements is to save lives, and they are intended to be in Finland since 2006. used only when the threat is imminent. The aim is to keep Based on damage caused by 60 separate severe-hail them as compact and clear as possible so that they are easily cases in Finland during the past 10 years (from the understandable when heard on the radio. Two levels of climatology by Tuovinen et al. (2009)), we have classified statements have been developed to highlight the possibility the typical reported damage for different hail sizes (Table 1). of extremely dangerous events (Smith 2000). The impact of the hail is not solely dependent on hail size, but also on the duration of the hail fall and the TABLE 2: Thunderstorm wind and hail call-to-action statements for accompanying winds (e.g. Parker et al. 2005). The most Finland. Large hail commonly reported hail damage in Finland includes broken General Move indoors away from windows and glass plastic or glass shields and windows, and dented cars. roofing. Injuries caused by falling hailstones have been bruises, Extremely This is a very dangerous situation. Large hail can wounds or mild concussions. A hail impact damage chart dangerous cause crushing and wounds. Move immediately (Table 1) shows similarities with other reported damage situation indoors away from windows and glass roofing. elsewhere (e.g. Hohl et al. 2002). Thunderstorm wind gusts The hail damage and its socioeconomic impacts are General Move indoors away from windows. Look out for studied in detail for the 10 July 2006 severe-hail episode, falling trees and power lines. one of the most violent severe-hail outbreaks in recent Extremely This is a very dangerous situation. Move dangerous immediately indoors away from windows. Look history in Finland. This event was well documented and it situation out for falling trees and power lines. raised questions about society’s vulnerability to severe hail. During 10 July, numerous splitting supercell storms swept V. AKNOWLEDGMENTS through small cities and communities in the eastern Finland We thank Jarkko Jäntti from the Emergency Services (Tuovinen 2007), producing hail up to 7-cm in diameter and College for his contribution to constructing the call-to-action damaging winds. The right-moving supercells were the statements and safety rules, and Ilkka Juga from the Finnish strongest hail producers. Altogether, 8 different storms Meteorological Institute and Esa Nysten from the Finnish produced severe hail with over 50 individual reports of Motor Insurers´ Centre for their help with the insurance severe hail. data. This research was partly sponsored by Tekes UHHA These storms caused multimillion-euro property project. Schultz is partially funded by Vaisala Oyj. damage as over 1000 cars were damaged, and some were beyond repair. Also, numerous windows in buildings and tile roofs were shattered in the worst-hit areas. A few people VI. REFERENCES were injured at the local athletics meeting when the hail fall Hohl, R., Schiesser H.-H., Aller D., 2002: Hailfall: the relationship suddenly started. The total amount of the insured property between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings. Atmos. Res., 63, 177–207. losses was estimated to be 2–2.5 million euros. The Finnish Parker, M. D., Ratcliffe I. C., Henebry G. M., 2005: The July 2003 Motor Insurers´ Centres statistics did not show an increase Dakota hailswaths: Creation, characteristics, and possible in the number of accidents in most of the affected provinces, impacts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1241–1260. except for one province where the number of accidents was Punkka, A-J, Teittinen J., Johns R. H., 2006: Synoptic and double the average. mesoscale analysis of a high latitude derecho – severe thunderstorm outbreak in Finland on 5 July 2002. Wea. TABLE 1: Hail impact damage chart for Finland. Forecasting, 21, 752–763. Size Impacts Rauhala, J., Punkka A-J., 2008: Radar observations of a tornadic ≥1,5 cm/ - Slippery roads and poor visibility severe frontal rainband. Pre-prints, 24th Conference on Severe long - Crop and plant damage Local Storms, Savannah, Georgia, USA. [Available online duration http://ams.confex.com/ams/24SLS/techprogram/paper_142151.ht 2–3 cm - Occasional damage to car sheet metal m]. 3–5 cm - Scratches from sharp hail edges, bruises, swellings, Rauhala, J., Schultz, D. M., 2009: Severe thunderstorm and tornado and mild concussions for humans and animals warnings in Europe. Atmos. Res., 93, 369–380. - Damage to car sheet metal and windshields cracked Smith, R., 2000: Communicating the threat in warnings and - Tin roofs dented, felt roofs damaged, building statements: Call to action statements. Technical Attachment windows broken, holes in plastic roof decks, paint SR/SSD 2000-12, NWS Southern Region Headquarters. comes off of exterior walls [Available online 5–7 cm - Crushing for humans http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd00-12.htm]. - Tile roofing broken, two-light frame windows broken Troutman, T. W., Smith R., Rose M. A., 2001: Situation specific ≥7 cm - Car windshields completely broken, large dents in call-to-action statements. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS sheet metal SR-202. National Weather Service. Fort Worth, TX: Scientific Services. [Available online at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/sr215.htm] IV. CALL-TO-ACTION STATEMENTS Tuovinen, J.-P., 2007: Suurien rakeiden klimatologia Suomessa Call-to-action statements should provide localized 1930–2006 (The severe hail climatology in Finland 1930–2006). guidance on what to do in response to the forecast M.S. thesis,Department of Physics,University of Helsinki, 86 pp. Tuovinen, J.-P., Punkka A.-J., Rauhala J., Hohti H., Schultz D. M., (Troutman et al. 2001), although only a few European 2009: Climatology of severe hail in Finland: 1930-2006. Mon. countries surveyed said that they included such statements in Wea. Rev. 137, 2238–2249. their severe thunderstorm warning message sent to the public (Rauhala and Schultz 2009). Based on the observed
338 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE USA AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE – A TREND ANALYSIS BASED ON DATA FROM A NEW APPROACH TO ADJUSTING STORM LOSSES Silvio Schmidt1, Claudia Kemfert2 and Peter Höppe3
1Humboldt University, Berlin, c/o Munich Reinsurance Company, Königinstr. 107, 80802 Munich, Germany, e-mail: [email protected] 2German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany, e-mail: [email protected] 3Munich Reinsurance Company, Königinstr. 107, 80802 Munich, Germany, e-mail: [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION intensity of tropical cyclones is affected by anthropogenic Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have climate change. The destructive force of tropical cyclones increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a has been increasing globally since the mid-1970s. This result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of increase correlates very closely with the sea surface severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or temperature (cf. Emanuel, 2005, Hoyos et al., 2006, Webster as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors et al., 2005). According to Barnett et al. (2005) there is (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to already a link between global warming and temperature settle in exposed areas). increases in the uppermost levels of the ocean (see also This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic Elsner, 2006, Mann and Emanuel, 2006). They looked at the effects and ascertain the potential impact that climate change past 40 years, in which they already found a very significant as a whole (due to natural and anthropogenic forcings) has impact on loss trends. The IPCC states that humans have, “more likely than not”, contributed to the trend towards intense tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s. Therefore, any increase in losses could, more likely than not, be partly related to anthropogenic climate change. Our initial approach was to adjust storm losses for various years to a comparable socio-economic level before subjecting them to a trend analysis.
II. METHOD Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore FIG. 1: Annual adjusted losses caused by Atlantic tropical cyclones adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of that made landfall in the USA in US$ billion (2005 values). The ten-year average broadly follows the cycle of natural climate the affected region. fluctuations (AMO) (ten-year average of mean sea surface temperature) (source: Schmidt et al., 2009). III. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We believe there is at least evidence to suggest that IV. REFERENCES climatic change as a whole, due to both natural variability Barnett T. P., Pierce D. W., Achuta Rao K. M., Gleckler P. and anthropogenic forcings, does have an impact. For J., Santer B. D., Gregory J. M., Washington W. M., 2005: example, annual adjusted losses since the beginning of the Penetration of Human–Induced Warming into the World’s last “cold phase” (1971) of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oceans. Science, 309 284–287. Oscillation show a positive trend, with an average annual Elsner J. B., 2006: Evidence in support of the climate rise of 4% that cannot be explained by socio-economic change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis. Geophysical components. This increase can at least be interpreted as a Research Letters, 33 L16705. climate variability impact. There is no evidence yet of any Emanuel K. A., 2005: Increasing Destructiveness of trend in tropical cyclone losses that can be attributed directly Tropical Cyclones over the past 30 Years. Nature, 436 to anthropogenic climate change. But we advance the 686–688. premise that if losses are affected by natural climate Hoyos C. D., Agudelo P. A., Webster P. J., Curry J. A., fluctuations, they are also likely to be affected by additional 2006: Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the global warming due to anthropogenic climate change. Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity. Science, 312 94– This premise is supported by indications that the
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97. Mann M. E., Emanuel K. A., 2006: Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change. EOS, 24 233–241. Schmidt S., Kemfert C., Höppe P., 2009: Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change – A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, advance online publication, published online 2 May 2009, DOI:10.1016/j.eiar.2009.03.003. Webster P. J., Holland G. J., Curry J. A., Chang H-R., 2005: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment. Science, 309 1844– 1846.
340 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
MEDIA COMMUNICATION OF EXTREME EVENTS: A CASE STUDY FOR BRAZIL Lucí Hidalgo Nunes1
1University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Institute of Geosciences (IG), Department of Geography (DGEO) R. João Pandiá Calógeras, 51 – 13.075-020, Campinas, SP, Brazil, [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION energy (code 27), lightning (code 30), sports (code 33), pollution (code 36) and others (code 39). Mass media is a powerful instrument to modify the Figure 1 shows that more news on weather and ways of organization and implementation of the society, climate were published in November-December and May, since it influences individual and collective perceptions, as due to two extreme events: the former covered the tropical well as political decisions (Weingart et al, 2000, Nunes, cyclone Nargis that hit Myanmar early May and the latter 2009). Thus, scientific community must be aware of the was associated with the catastrophic floods and mass ways in which information is dispersed by the media, in movements in Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil (22 order to contribute to convey good, useful and reliable news in a single day: 27 November). In addition, the higher information to the society. frequency of reports on climate and weather (i.e., the Some climatic events such as floods, droughts and relation between news per day) were found in February - strong winds directly influence every person. Further, issues month that normally registers high totals of rainfall and such as global warming, climate change and extremes of consequently floods and landslides in many parts of Brazil - temperature have become hot topics in the global mass and May - in this case, due to an overseas event: the tropical media (Weingart et al., 2000; Carvalho, 2007). cyclone Nargis. Less news on weather and climate were In Brazil, news on atmospheric phenomena increased published in October. from 11 to 473 between 1995 and 2000 (MCT, 2004).
Notwithstanding, many reports are inaccurate and 180
inconsistent, with sensationalist statements, evocative 160
pictures and appealing and alarmist headlines (Leroux, 2005; 140
Nunes, 2009). Therefore, it is important to evaluate the 120
accuracy, suitability and usefulness of information spread up 100
by the media and to understand criteria used for electing 80
significant facts and the authorized agents to define science 60
matters. 40
Information on extreme atmospheric events deserves 20
special attention, since they can strongly impact 0 environment and society: in 2008 only, 354 Jan Feb Mar Ap May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec hydrometeorological disasters were registered around the FIG. 1: Monthly distribution of news on weather and climate in world. They promoted 235,000 deaths, affected 214 million OESP, 2008. people in 120 nations and caused economic losses of 190 US millions (Cred Crunch 16, 2009). Figure 2 shows the number of reports along the year, discriminated in the 13 types (codes). Reports of weather II. DISCUSSION AND RESULTS forecast (present in all issues), floods, climate change/global warming, agriculture and winds were more frequent. The study analysed at daily basis all information on However, some differences in relation to the geographical weather and climate published in 2008 in “O Estado de S. area and approaches could be identified: news of weather Paulo” (OESP), a traditional Brazilian newspaper, whose forecast and agriculture were related almost exclusively to first issue was edited in 1879 in São Paulo. Brazil; whereas reports about strong winds and their Because readers of OESP are mainly the dominant implications were concerned with other countries. News on Brazilian classes (96% classes A, B and C), topics and floods refers to the consequences in Brazil and overseas and approaches are driven by their interests. The newspaper information on climate change/global warming was exerts strong influence on their readers and 90% of them are collected from scientific sources from Brazil and especially subscribers. Around 239,148 issues are released everyday overseas. but Sundays (315,614 issues) (http://www.estadao.com.br/). As expected, Table 1 shows that most of the news Analyses considered both quality and quantity of the concerning weather and climate published in 2008 in OESP news published in the period under investigation. It was refers to Brazilian conditions (82%). September and May found 1,108 news along the year, 744 of them (67%) have more news for other countries, both cases due to strong illustrated and 42 on the cover page. wind episodes: hurricanes in the Caribbean and the USA in The reports were classified in 13 groups according to September and tropical cyclone Nargis and tornadoes in the the prevailing subject. Each one received a code, from 3 to USA in May. 42 in order to identify each class (see in Figure 3): weather forecast (code 3), heat waves (code 6), cold spells (code 9), global warming/climate change (code 12), floods (code 15), droughts, (code 18), agriculture (code 21), winds (code 24),
341 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
No effort to connect similar information was found in many 400 cases, and the translation of uncertainties in weather and 350 climate (a known characteristic of the atmospheric
300 processes) was inadequate, fact that might create doubts and science untrustworthy. On the other hand, OESP provided 250 space for different opinions (for instance, pro and against 200 global warming) and used reliable sources to provide 150 explanation of atmospheric phenomena, such as scientific 100 journals or explanations by scientists.
50 III. CONCLUSIONS 0
Cold Heat Agric. Winds Sports Floods Others Energy Media plays a strategic role for citizens, since precise Pollution Droughts Lightning Forescast Gl. Warm. and timely information on climate and weather can be FIG. 2: Reports by main subjects in OESP, 2008. transformed in economic profits or losses and alert population on possible risks triggered by atmospheric National International situations. However, Brittle and Muthuswamy (2009) Jan 84 9 underlined that attitudes about issues such as global Feb 69 18 warming do not appear to be influenced by scientific Mar 65 18 evidence (although it should!), so that scientific community Apr 56 7 must be aware of the ways the media influences concerns May 68 37 Jun 59 20 about atmospheric situations. Jul 61 10 Analysing a Brazilian newspaper, this study showed Aug 55 10 that the importance of information on weather and climate is Sep 47 38 on increase, fact that must be associated with recent Oct 57 6 concerns about climate change and global warming. Extreme Nov 139 12 events received more attention, but a geopolitical preference Dec 153 10 was identified: news of central countries (or central states in Total 913 195 Brazil) was more frequent, while information for peripheral TABLE 1: National (Brazil) and international news on weather and countries and Brazilian regions appeared only if these areas climate, for months. were hit by exceptional episodes (like Myanmar or Haiti).
In Figure 3 one can see that some subjects were more frequently reported, such as weather forecast (code 3) and IV. AKNOWLEDGMENT global warming/ climate change (code 12), while some The author would like to thank Fundação de Amparo others were more seasonal, like heavy winds (code 24). à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) for providing financial support to attend the 5th. ECSS Conference (Proc. 42 2009/10477-3). 36 30 V. REFERENCES
24 Brittle, C., Muthuswamy N. 2009: Scientific elites and C odes 18 concern for global warming: the impact of disagreement, 12 evidence strength, partisan cues, and exposure to news 6 content on concern for climate. International Journal of Sustainability Communication, 4 23-44. 0 Change MCT-Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia. Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima. 2004: 1/jan/08 5/jun/08 6/set/08 5/fev/08 8/abr/08 23/jul/08 1/dez/08 5/dez/08 5/m ai/08 16/jan/08 27/jun/08 29/set/08 29/out/08 25/fev/08 20/dez/08 20/m ai/08 17/ago/08 19/nov/08 27/nov/08 16/m ar/08 Days Comunicação Nacional inicial do Brasil à Convenção- quadro das Nações Unidas sobre mudança do clima. FIG. 3: Reports by main subjects in OESP, 2008. Brasília: MCT. Carvalho, A. 2007: Ideological cultures and media A qualitative analysis of the published information was also discourses on scientific knowledge: re-reading news on performed by considering news headlines (how appealing or related climate change. Public Understanding of Science, 16 to the subject they were) information correctness, illustrations 223–243. appropriateness and prevailing approach (politics, economy, Cred Crunch 16, April 2009: Available at: etc).
342 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
RECONSTRUCTION OF NEAR-SURFACE TORNADO WIND FIELDS FROM FOREST DAMAGE Veronika Beck1,2, Nikolai Dotzek1
1 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Wessling, Germany. e-Mail: [email protected] 2 Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany, eMail: [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION Tornado intensities are usually determined according to the III. STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL damage produced. Here, a method for the reconstruction of The model for the simulation of tree damage patterns tornado near-surface wind fields and their intensity from consists of a wind field model for a tornado near-surface forest damage is described. Forest damage due to tornadoes wind field and a tree model for the calculation of the critical has already been documented by Wegener (1917), Letzmann velocity for tree stem breakage. The structure of the model is (1923, 1925), Budney (1965) and Fujita (1985) while outlined in Fig. 1. Holland et al. (2006) (cf. Dotzek et al., 2008) and Bech et al. (2009) focused on the simulation of forest damage patterns by using a simple vortex model similar to ours. We present a model based on the analytical tornado wind field model of Letzmann (1923) and a mechanistic tree model of Peltola and Kellomäki (1993) to simulate real tornado forest damage patterns. From the comparison of the simulated and real forest damage patterns, conclusions on the tornado intensity and important parameters of the tornado near-surface wind field can be drawn. Full details are given by Beck (2008), FIG. 1: Structure of the model consisting of the tree model for the Beck et al. (2008) or Beck and Dotzek (2009). calculation of the critical velocity for stem breakage and the wind field model giving the instantaneous wind vector at each grid point.
II. ANALYTICAL TORNADO MODEL The analytical tornado model of Letzmann (1923) serves as Letzmann (1923) developed a three-dimensional analytical wind field model. In the first part of the model, the critical tornado model with a linear velocity increase in the tornado velocity for stem breakage is derived from the mechanistic core and hyperbolical velocity decay in the tornado mantle. HWIND model of Peltola and Kellomäki (1993). Here, The equations for the tangential and radial velocity either a random or homogeneous distribution of trees can be component (vθ and vr) are similar to those of a Rankine used. The bending moment and the tree resistance are vortex with Rmax indicating the radius of the tornado core. calculated from several tree parameters with an initial A constant translation speed vtrans of the tornado in y- velocity guess, and the values are compared. If the bending direction is assumed. The radial vr and tangential velocity moment exceeds the tree resistance, the iteration ends. -1 components vθ of the vortex depend on the three parameters Otherwise the velocity is incremented by 0.5 m s steps. vtrans, Gmax and . Here, Gmax indicates the ratio between The calculations are done for a 400 m 400 m domain circular vcir and translation velocity component vtrans of the with a grid size of 10 m. The wind field model produces an tornado wind field, and is the angle between the direction instantaneous velocity at each grid point which is compared of the wind and the pressure gradient at the point of to the critical velocity for stem breakage. If the maximum velocity. Letzmann (1923) discussed a variation instantaneous velocity exceeds the critical velocity for stem of the angle within the velocity field and defined a tornado breakage the tree is considered to be broken and the falling core to be “genuine” (outflow from the vortex centre and direction is assumed to be the instantaneous direction of the inflow from the outside, a two-cell vortex) or “false”. wind field at the corresponding point. According to Letzmann (1923), during a tornado life cycle the behaviour of a tornado core changes from a false core to IV. FOREST DAMAGE ANALYSIS a genuine core at its mature stage. The F3-tornado of Milosovice, Czech Republic, occurred on Letzmann (1923) derived theoretical tree damage 31 May 2001 with a path width of 400-500 m and a path patterns for different values of the parameters and Gmax length of 4.5 km (www.chmi.cz/torn/cases/20010531/- depending on the critical intensity for stem breakage of the 20010531.html). Besides the main vortex (1), three smaller trees. He introduced an angle indicating the deviation of vortices were observed. From radar observations, the the fall direction of the trees from the direction of tornado translation speed of the thunderstorm cell producing the translation. Letzmann (1923) showed that a tree with = 0° tornado is estimated as 16.5 ± 1.0 m s-1. indicates either a converging or a diverging line, while a tree The damage patterns of the individual vortices were with = 180° characterizes a converging line. A tree with analyzed by different parameters. First, an estimation of the = 180° is only found for values of Gmax greater than 2.0, angle is made by analyzing if the damage pattern is however. Based on this, Letzmann (1923) classified the convergent or divergent. Then, the value of Gmax has to be theoretical tree damage patterns into four main swath types.
343 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY derived from the damage patterns as well as the sense of Letzmann’s analytical tornado model depending on rotation of the vortex. Also the radius Rmax and the type of Gmax, and vtrans is perfectly suited to determine these the tornado core follow from comparison of simulated parameters from forest damage patterns; damage patterns with the real damage patterns by varying If the tornado translation speed is known, the damage the single parameters. From these parameters, the near- pattern completely determines the wind field. Intensity surface wind fields of the vortices can be reconstructed. can be inferred without requiring tree stand parameters; By consecutive simulations with varying parameters Gmax, and Rmax to fit the observed damage patterns, the near-surface tornado wind fields and the location of the centreline of the tornado track can be determined; The convergence and divergence lines mentioned by Letzmann (1923) could be verified in the tree damage patterns, leading to a better damage classification; F-scale distribution along the path and the areal percentage of peak intensity may feed into risk models; The maximum velocity of the Milosovice tornado was determinable with an uncertainty of only 6.0 m s-1, about a half-level of the F-scale. In general, the relation vmax = (Gmax + 1) vtrans holds. Thus, the high accuracy of this model approach is encour- aging, given that the main objective of the method was to reconstruct the tornado near-surface wind field structure.
VI. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was partly funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) under contract 01LS05125 in the project RegioExAKT (Regional Risk of Convective Extreme Weather Events: User-oriented Concepts for Climatic Trend Assessment and Adaptation, www.regioexakt.de).
VII. REFERENCES Bech, J, M. Gayà, M. Aran, F. Figuerola, J. Amaro, and J. Arús, 2009: Tornado damage analysis of a forest area using site survey observations, radar data and a simple vortex model. Atmos. Res., 93(1-3), 118-130. Beck, V., 2008: Near-surface tornado wind field recon- struction from forest damage. Diploma thesis, TU München 162 pp. [www.essl.org/pdf/Beck2008.pdf] Beck, V., N. Dotzek, 2009: Reconstruction of near-surface tornado wind fields from forest damage. Submitted to J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., in revised form. Beck, V., N. Dotzek, R. Sausen, 2008: Determination of tornado intensity from forest damage. Preprints, 24th FIG. 2: Simulated (lower left) vs. real (upper left) damage patterns Conf. on Severe Local Storms. Savannah, 27-31 October of the main Milosovice tornado. On the right, the distribution of the Fujita-scale for the simulated damage pattern is shown. 2008, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, 8 pp. [ams.confex.- com/ams/24SLS/techprogram/paper_141809.htm] The Fujita-scale distribution in Fig. 2a even indicates Budney, L. J., 1965: Unique damage patterns caused by a an F4 zone amid the damage path and verified a widespread tornado in dense woodlands. Weatherwise, 18, 75–77. F3 zone for this tornado. Other derived parameters are Dotzek, N., R. E. Peterson, B. Feuerstein, M. Hubrig, 2008: Comments on “A simple model for simulating tornado shown in Table I. Note that the uncertainty in vmax equals damage in forests”. J. Appl. Meteor. Climat., 47, 726-731. (Gmax + 1) times the variability in vtrans (Beck, 2008; Beck and Dotzek, 2009), hence our approach can be very accurate. Fujita, T T., 1989: The Teton-Yellowstone Tornado of 21 July 1987. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1913–1940. Holland, A. P., A. J. Riordan, E. C. Franklin, 2006: A simple Gmax vtrans vcir vmax 1a) 5.0 -140° 16.5 1. 82.5 5. 99.0 6. model for simulating tornado damage in forests. J. Appl. 1b) 4.0 -140° 16.5 1. 55.5 4. 82.5 5. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1597–1611. Letzmann, J., 1923: Das Bewegungsfeld im Fuß einer 1c) 4.0 -150° 16.5 1. 55.5 4. 82.5 5. -1 fortschreitenden Wind–oder Wasserhose. Dissertation, TABLE I: Parameters and velocity components (m s ) from the damage analysis of the main tornado vortex (1) in sub-regions 1a), Acta Comm. Univ. Dorpat, AIII, 1–136. www.essl.org 1b), and 1c), see Fig. 2. In addition, Rmax = 80 m was derived. Letzmann, J., 1925: Fortschreitende Luftwirbel. Meteorol. Z., 42, 41–52. Peltola, H., S. Kellomäki, 1993: A mechanistic model for V. CONCLUSIONS calculating windthrow and stem breakage of Scots pines The method presented here allows reconstruction of near- at stand edge. Silva Fenn., 27, 99–111. surface tornado wind fields from the analysis of actual forest Wegener, A. L., 1917: Wind- und Wasserhosen in Europa. damage patterns: Vieweg, Braunschweig, 301pp. www.essl.org
344 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
RADAR PARAMETERS DETERMINING THE KINETIC ENERGY OF HAIL PRECIPITATION IN THE IBERIAN PENINSULA
J.L. Sánchez, B. Gil-Robles, L. López and E. García-Ortega
Group for Atmospheric Physics, IMA, University of León, [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVE OF THE Both radars have the application developed by López and STUDY Sánchez (2009a) which makes it possible to view on the screen, in real-time, the area affected by the hail Detecting the hail precipitation generated by a precipitation. Also, using the TITAN software it is possible particular storm is a difficult task because of the limited area to obtain different radar parameters for each storm cell with usually affected by hail and due to the irregularity of hail precipitation (Dixon and Wiener, 1993). falls on the ground with respect to time and space. Some of the methods most frequently used to establish hail Based on this experimental set-up, it is possible to climatologies are networks of observers and hailpad create integrated databases, on the one hand, providing us networks. Both methods have disadvantages, especially with characteristic data on the storm that is generating hail when the study zone is large and the cost of maintaining a precipitation, and on the other, providing us with details on network is high. the characteristics of the precipitation at that moment through the variables obtained from the hailpads. In our In an attempt to overcome these difficulties, a case, we have focused our attention especially on the number of studies have developed models that detect hail characteristic kinetic energy of the precipitation. precipitation by means of meteorological radar systems. Some of these models make use of discriminatory statistical However, not all of the hailpads receiving impacts techniques that achieve very satisfactory results combining were included in the study. From the initial database, which several radar parameters (López & Sánchez, 2009a). related all of the hailpads that received impacts with a series Moreover, it would be very interesting to determine not only of radar parameters, we selected the hailpads without the likelihood of hail, but also some of the characteristics of problems connected with screening, reading, etc. As a result, the hailstones, such as their number or their kinetic energy, by applying this methodology the database from Zaragoza, as these parameters are closely related to the damage which which originally consisted of 235 hailpads, finally included hail causes to infrastructures and/or crops. a total of 119. Similarly, the final database from Mendoza used in this study included a total of 100 hailpads, out of an The aim of this study is to analyze in depth the original total of 399. relationship between the kinetic energy of hail and a number of radar parameters. A few studies have been devoted to the III. RESULTS relationship between energy and reflectivity, but a Principal Components Analysis has revealed that other radar The aim of the first part of the study was to calculate parameters must also be considered to obtain a more an empirical relation between the total kinetic energy accurate description of the kinetic energy of the hailstones measured in each hailpad (Ke) from Zaragoza, and the that hit the ground if better nowcasting models are to be reflectivity measured through the C-band weather radar constructed. The detection of these relationships in this covering this network. A simple linear regression was paper is a first step to determine the necessary ingredients to applied to the two variables. The results provide linear set up a model for forecasting the kinetic energy of hail. equations, whose explained variance is only 0.230. Neither is this percentage significant for Mendoza. II. STUDY AREAS AND DATABASES In the light of these results, a detailed analysis was then The study areas selected were in the province of carried out of the relations that existed between the energy Zaragoza (Spain) and in the province of Mendoza values of hail on the ground and the different radar (Argentina). Both share a high frequency of summer storms parameters. The aim was to discover if it would be possible with precipitation in the form of hail (Sánchez et al., 2009b). to reach higher percentages of explained variance by Also, both have networks of hailpads and weather radar including the new variables. To do so, we firstly studied the systems that cover the whole of the networks. The province correlations between the Ke and the radar parameters. The of Zaragoza, in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, has a results of the analysis revealed that in the case of Zaragoza, network of 100 hailpads. The Argentinean province of the variables which have significant Pearson correlations at 6 3 Mendoza, close to the Andes range on the border with Chile, level 0.01 are the specific reflectivity (mm mm ), the -2 also has a network of 130 hailpads with an identical grid accumulated VIL during the storm (kg m ), the pondered size. As already mentioned, both zones have weather radars: centroid height in reflectivity (km) and the maximum in Zaragoza there is a C-band radar that belongs to the reflectivity height (km). It also has a significant correlation -2 University of León, and in Mendoza there is an S-band radar at level 0.05 with the specific VIL (kg m ), with the centroid which belongs to the provincial government of Mendoza. height (km) and with the top (km). In the case of Mendoza,
345 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY a higher number of significant correlations were obtained different groups. In the network from Mendoza, the most than in Zaragoza, with higher correlation coefficients. important variables were those in relation to the amount of water available and the vertical structure (associated with the kinetic energy measured by the hailpad), and secondly the variables referring to the dimensions of the storm and the progress in time. As a result, we once again see that a high percentage of explained variance (81.531%) is achieved with the components that were extracted.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
- The simple relations between the kinetic energy measured by the hailpad and the maximum specific reflectivity on the same measured by weather radar do not provide satisfactory results in terms of the percentage of explained variance.
- To increase the explained variance (to thresholds of approximately 80%), it is necessary to include radar parameters in the predictive models of the Ke that are FIGURE 1: Dendogram obtained from the cluster analysis. representative of at least four groups of variables. The four groups of variables found in the two study areas through A cluster analysis was then carried out for each of the cluster analysis and Principal Components Analysis the integrated databases (radar variables and Ke). The results are: physical dimensions of the storm, progress in time, of the analysis for Zaragoza are shown in Fig. 1. In the case vertical structure and microphysics. Each of the groups of Mendoza, these groups are less hierarchized. It is highly has different radar parameters associated with it, and is significant to note that through the cluster analysis in both susceptible to being interpreted from a meteorological areas, four groups of radar variables are established, perspective. namely: physical dimensions of the storm, progress in time, vertical structure and microphysics. The four groups - Detecting these relations is the first step in constructing a obtained can be interpreted in meteorological terms as model for the prediction of kinetic energy on the ground necessary “ingredients” in order to explain the variance using radar data. In fact, the results obtained in this sense found in the kinetic energy recorded in hail precipitation on indicate how, with strictly statistical criteria, the the ground. construction of regression models using the stepwise method points towards equations composed of radar parameters included in the different groups of variables 1 2 3 4 found. % 45.631 61.607 73.326 80.084 σ2 V. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Volume Dtop/Dt Ht of refl. Zh This study was supported by the Spanish Ministry centroid of Education and Science through grant no. CGL2006- Mass Dvolume/Dt Ht of VIL 13372-C02-01/CLI, the Regional Government of Aragón centroid and the Provincial Government of Mendoza. Mean Dprecip_flux/Dt Top cumVIL area Precip Dmass/Dt Ht of max Max reflect. VI. REFERENCES flux reflectivity
Parameters Parameters Precip DdBz_max/Dt Mean reflect. Dixon M. and Wiener, G., 1993: TITAN: Thunderstorm, area Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting –A Tilt radar based Methodology. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 10 angle 785 – 797. TABLE I: Summary of the results obtained in the Principal López L. and Sánchez J.L., 2009a: . Discriminant methods Components Analysis. for radar detection of hail. Atmos. Res., 93 358-368 Finally, a Principal Components Analysis was Sánchez J.L., Marcos J.L., Dessens J., López L., Bustos C carried out, with Kaiser’s Varimax rotation. In the case of and García-Ortega E., 2009b: Assessing sounding-derived the network in Zaragoza, the 4 main components extracted parameters as storm predictors in diferent latitudes. precisely reflect the groups formed in the cluster analysis Atmos. Res., 93 446-456. (See Table I). The component that provides most of the explained variance is that formed by the variables connected with the physical dimensions of the storm, followed by the progress in time, the vertical structure, and finally the amount of water available. With these four components it is possible to explain 80.084% of the accumulated variance.
In turn, in the Argentinean network the five principal components that were extracted combine parameters from
346 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
THE RMS U.S. AND CANADA SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORM MODEL Alexandra Guerrero, Martine van de Poll, Kechi Nzerem
1Risk Management Solutions (RMS), Peninsular House, 30 Monument St. London EC3R 8NB, UK, [email protected]
(Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION which are specifically designed to capture meso- and micro- structure of convective wind events. RMS has developed a U.S. and Canada Severe We have created an algorithm that identifies and Convective Storms model which quantifies the financial risk delimits derecho’s geographical extent based on the and impact of Convective Storms in the U.S. and Canada. historical data mentioned above and a modified definition of The United States has the most active severe convective Coniglio’s which identifies derechos based on wind speeds, storm climatology in the world. Canada ranks as the second the size of the area of the convectively induced wind gusts most active. In the U.S. the annual losses from SCS and the continuity of the temporal and spatial progression of represent the second highest from natural catastrophes. reports (Coniglio and Stensrud, 2004) . This definition was further modified to identify other straight-line winds events which are not considered derechos but have damaging II. PRESENTATION OF RESEARCH winds. The morphological characteristics of derechos were calibrated based on data from 1968-2006, as the first
measured derecho was indentified in 1968. RMS models the risk of SCS by using a stochastic Wind footprints of the maximum winds were set of events which include hail, tornado, straight-line winds created for the historical events using interpolated storms. The stochastic event set has over 80,000 simulated anemometer observations at the time and location of the events, each of which is defined by the intensity of hail, identified historical events. A probabilistic distribution of tornado or wind at the locations impacted by the storm. characteristic winds during a straight-line wind event was These events represent a comprehensive set of physically estimated at each location using all the wind measurements possible variations of the key storm parameters and their from the reproduced historical footprints. These associated rates of ocurrance. characteristic wind distributions were sampled for the In order to properly represent the intensity, frequency simulated wind events in the stochastic set. and small-scale damage pattern of events as well the geographical extent and correlation between the 3 perils The Tornado Model (hail, tornado and straight-line winds), RMS has developed a The U.S. and Canada Severe Convective Storm hybrid modelling approach that combines the strengths of model uses reports of historical tornadoes to parametrize the numerical weather prediction and statistical techniques. morphology of a tornado outbreak. RMS identified over RMS derived CAPE (Convective Available Potential 20,000 tornado clusters between 1950 and 2006 in the Energy) and shear from the North American Regional historical tornado records. The clusters can be characterized Reanalysis data in 1975-2005 (Mesinger, 2006) and used by the strongest tornado in the cluster. The stochastic them as convective potential indicators. RMS resampled this tornadoes in the RMS model are based on these historical reanalysis data to create a stochastic set of several thousands cluster observations and accurately represent the range of simulated years of continent-wide convective conditions. sizes of tornado outbreaks observed in the historical record. This ensures that spatial and temporal correlations in the Intensities are measured using the Fujita scale and are data are preserved while simulating a set in which each year assigned to each tornado streak in a cluster consistent with is unique and represents a year of convective activity that is the range of intensities in the historical data. physically feasible and that has never been observed before. For the development of the stochastic tonado These continous weather patterns are then discretized to parametrization, RMS has focused on tornado reports create events. An event is defined as continuous convective corresponding to different years of the complete record for storm activity which lasts from a single to several each tornado intensity. This has been done as, it is widely consecutive days. Within these simulated days multiple known, the annual number of tornado reports has increased outbreaks of tornadoes, hail and straight-line winds may with time (McCarthy 2003). In addition, the frequencies of occur over a large area. weaker tornadoes have been corrected to compensate for underreporting. The Straight-line winds Model Individual tornado characteristics, such as path The RMS U.S. and Canada Convective Storm length and width, are based on probability distributions model includes straight-line winds which comprises specific to each intensity class. The intensity across the path downbursts, outflow, microbursts, and even larger more of a tornado is modeled using a meteorological model for organized storms such as derechos. For the characterization vorticinial wind speed. This model has been further of these events in terms of intensity and morphology, we use calibrated using damage surveys that record intensities different sources of data such as historical reports (1955- across the path of historical tornadoes. 2006) from the Storm Prediction Center, anemometer data (1995-2006) which include Oklahoma’s Mesonet stations
347 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
The Hail Model The development of the RMS model was based on thousands of observations from over 50 years of hail incident reports. In addition industry claims have been used as they can provide a unique high-resolution view of the intensity footprint of a hail storm. Radar data was also used in the development as this has the advantage of overcoming the large spatial gaps in the observational hail data. RMS worked with Weather Decision Technologies Inc. (WDT) to interpret high resolution WSR- 88D radar data from a wide range of events to define the areas of individual hail swaths. This high resolution data, in conjunction with reports and claims data allowed us to characterise the hail swaths and streaks in terms of their morphology and intensity. RMS parametrizes the size and shape of the individual hail swaths and uses two intensity classes which are based on an equivalent of the kinetic energy of the hail swath at a location.
III. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
RMS has developed a comprehensive U.S. and Canada Severe Convective Storms Model. RMS models the risk of SCS by using a stochastic set of events which include hail, tornado and straight-line winds storms. These events are characterized by their intensity, geographical location and rate of occurrence and include outbreaks any combination of the 3 perils. RMS has used a variety of data (reanalysis data, anemometer readings, radar images, event and damage reports as well as loss data) and modeling techniques (statistical, numerical and meteorological) to develop its SCS model. Using reanalysis data we have created a risk surface which captures the link between convective meteorological conditions and the probability and intensity of an event. The surface drives the occurrence of events and maintains the spatial coherence between the outbreaks and the 3 perils. This approach also avoids biases around populated areas where historical reports are concentrated on. We have used historical data to characterize the events in terms of their morphology, intensity and the small scale characteristics of the individual footprints.
V. REFERENCES www.rms.com Mesinger, F. et al. 2006: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3) 343-360. Coniglio M. C., Stensrud D. J., 2004: Interpreting the Climatology of Derechos. Weather and Forecasting, 19(2) 320-337. McCarthy, D. W., 2003: NWS tornado surveys and the impact on the national tornado database. Preprints, First Symp. of F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3.2.
348 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
RESEARCH ASPECTS OF CRISIS PREVENTION AND RISK & CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN ENTERPRISES – EMPIRICAL DATA FROM AUSTRIAN ENTERPRISES Dr. Alexandra Kulmhofer1 1 Karl-Franzens Universität Graz, Krisen- und Katastrophenforschung, am Institut für Soziologie, Universitätsstrasse 15, 8010 Graz, Austria, [email protected] UMIT - Private Universität für Gesundheitswissenschaften, Medizinische Informatik und Technik, Research Division: Wissenszentrum für Krisen- und Katastrophenforschung, Eduard Wallnöfer Zentrum I, 6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria, [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION an important part and community as well as businesses are Economic development and the dynamic integrated into planning, implementation and environment of enterprises today make Risk and Crisis communication. (Pearce, 2003) Management more and more important. It is essential to implement effective strategies of problem solving, II. CRISIS PREVENTION AND RISK & CRISIS appropriate prevention strategies and a comprehensive Risk MANAGEMENT and Crisis Management. High complexity implicates many The early involvement of community and enterprises risks so that vulnerability partially assumes alarming in Disaster Risk Management strengthens their actionability. proportions. Both public and private sector organizations An appropriate risk communication strategy aims to have to prepare for potential crises and catastrophes. In the establish a comprehensive risk awareness and risk course of modernisation and globalisation the demands in sensitisation, to heighten the willingness to set individual Crisis Management have changed rapidly. The effects of precaution measures and to support the corporate handling crises and disasters are often supra-regional; so of risk through participation. The attitude of the public interdisciplinary and scientific methods are required. concerning risks and Emergency Management in connection Companies have to develop adaptation strategies for with disasters is influenced by the way the authorities in discontinuously shifting conditions in short term. A dynamic charge of Emergency Management communicate with the management of strategic and operational risks is necessary public and by the way the media report on risks and on to be able to solve complex problems. An environmental possibilities to handle them. The public and enterprises have analysis (identification of potentially threatening external to know the potential risks so that they can set preventative influencing factors in the macro-economic, ecological, measues, take part in individual risk control (additionally to sociocultural, political, legal and technological field) as well risk control on technical and political level) and that they as a business analysis (identification of threats within a can act to avert negative consequences. (Schuchardt, et al., business) are necessary to develop effective strategies of 2008) prevention and intervention. Despite the dynamics in the business environment a
corporate stability is needed to achieve a good competitive position. Therefore a comprehensive Issue and Risk Management, an interdisciplinary prevention and a holistic Crisis Management are essential. There is a skills shortage both in proactive Risk and and in reactive Crisis Management, in particular in terms of cross-disciplinary skills. Risk Management needs to provide solutions for analysing and controlling risk. Professional Issue, Risk and Crisis Management need to deal effectively with potential threats. Management approaches are not applied in isolation but in concerted efforts. The focus should be on preventative measures with the objective to maintain assets. An adequate Management needs to provide for the whole gamut of measures from Fig. 1.: Number of great natural catastrophes, 1950–2008 (Munich coping with threats and consequences of destruction, to Re Group, 2009) timely prevention and maintenance of assets. Prevention necessitates Risk Management and a precursory stage of Natural disasters are collectively increasing in Issue Management. (Töpfer, 2006) frequency and measure of damages. (Münchener Rück, The objective of Risk Management is security. Two 2009) Catastrophes are a menace to the assets of aspects need to be considered. On the one hand, existing organizations. Therefore companies need to be aware of risks need to be minimised. On the other hand, after their vulnerability to disasters, they have to take preventative implementing precaution measures, remaining risks have to measures and develop effective response strategies. (Al- be controlled. Badi, Ashrafi, Al-Majeeni, Mayhew, 2009) In Disaster Management a shift is noticeable into a proactive and multidisciplinary direction, whereas Risk Management plays
349 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
company. It is very important to create risk awareness – just 21,7% of the polled businesses declared that there exists a risk awareness on several enterprise level. Risk communication contributes considerably to the whole Risk Management Cycle. (Kulmhofer, 2007)
III. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Disasters cause value destruction. Therefore Risk and Crisis Management as well as Contingency Planning are basic duties of corporate governance. Fig. 2: Risk Management Cycle (Brühwiler 2009) Empirical research of Risk and Crisis Management
in 755 businesses in Austria revealed that there is a huge Concerning Risk Management it is important to need for action in Issue, Risk and Crisis Management. Many establish the context, identify risk, analyse and assess risk, companies do not have any contingency plans and just a reduce risk by prevention and heightened state of alert and little number of businesses have established emergency task observe risk levels. Risk communication plays an important forces and do Crisis Management trainings. This underlines role in the Risk Management Cycle. (Brühwiler, 2009; the necessity to create overall awareness, intensify Merz, 2006) prevention measures and take action. Empirical research of Risk and Crisis Management Issue, Risk and Crisis Management should be in 755 businesses in Austria documented the state of Crisis implemented as an integrated, interdisciplinary management Prevention, as well as Risk and Crisis Management. approach. For the maintainance of assets prevention should The study revealed how many businesses have made be accelerated. In this way sustainable, dynamic businesses provisions, installed crisis staff and implemented training. can be established that are able to cope with the turbulent Over 70% do not have any contingency plans, and over transformations. Prevention is an investment in future. 79.3% of those have not even thought about drafting any. The mentioned reasons for the absence of a contingency plan are no necessity for such a plan, a lack of knowledge IV. REFERENCES concerning the creation of a contingency plan, the time- Al-Badi, A.H., Ashrafi, R., Al-Majeeni, A.O., Mayhew, P.J., factor followed by the cost-factor. There is a positive 2009: IT disaster recovery: Oman and Cyclone Gonu correlation between the number of employees and the lessons learned, Information Management & Computer existence of contingency plans as well as between the Security, 17, 2, 2009, 114-126, here: 114-115. implementation of trainings for staff and the existence of Brühwiler, B., 2009: Risikomanagement nach ISO 31000 contingency plans. und ONR 49000, 73. Dynamic and complex processes cause a constant Kulmhofer, A., 2007: Ergebnisse der Krisen- und change concerning the exposed risk. Therefore a continuous Katastrophenforschung. Ein interdisziplinärer Ansatz, 167- update of the contingency plan is necessary. The study 185. showed that the conventional time interval for the update is Merz, B., 2006: Hochwasserrisiken. Grenzen und annual. Möglichkeiten der Risikoabschätzung, Stuttgart, 81-83. In a crisis a frictionless intervention should be Münchener Rück, 2009: Große Naturkatastrophen und assured; therefore competence and responsibility should be Trends, Klimanews, defined in the contingency plan in advance. The http://klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com. organisational structure in a crisis should assure an efficient Munich Re Group, 2009: Topics Geo 2008, Natural and qualified troubleshooting. The emergency task force in a catastrophes 2008. Analyses, assessments, positions, 39. company is a specific form of organisation that is Pearce, L., 2003: Disaster management and community established to manage incidents that go beyond competence planning, and public participation: how to achieve of “normal” organisation. Just 21,6% of the polled sustainable hazard mitigation, Natural hazards, 28, 211- businesses have installed such an emergency task force. A 228. positive correlation could be identified between the Schuchardt, B., Schirmer, M., Lange, H., Wittig, S., international orientation of a business and the existence of Ronthaler, M., Sprado, J., 2008: Integriertes an emergency task force. Hochwasserrisikomanagement in einer individualisierten Trainings are also an essential factor for an efficient Gesellschaft. Integration und Informationsplattform, 80- Crisis Management as crisis specific knowledge is necessary 91. to take appropriate and target-oriented decisions. Trainings Töpfer, A., 2006: Werterhaltung und –steigerung durch are important to strengthen the troubleshooting skills, to Risiko- und Krisenmanagement, in: Schweickart, N., deepen knowledge concerning strategic and operational Töpfer, A. (Hrsg.): Wertorientiertes Management: Crisis Management and to strengthen “hard skills”, “soft Werterhaltung – Wertsteuerung – Wertsteigerung skills” and crisis specific “emergency skills”. Just 16% of ganzheitlich gestalten, 377-407. the polled companies arrange Crisis Management trainings for their employees. 50,7% of the companies declared that there exists an sensitisation for potential crisis within the company, whereas 24,5% of the polled businesses have already been affected by a crisis. There could be identified a positive correlation between “having already been affected“ by a crisis and the sensitisation for potential crises. A risk culture should be implemented within a
350 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF THE HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT IN SERBIA Miroljub V. Mitic 1, Zoran S. Vucinic 2 and Zoran M. Babic 2
1 Serbian Environmental Protection Agency, 27a Ruže Jovanovića str., 11160 Belgrade,Serbia, 2 Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia, 66 Kneza Viseslava,11000 Belgrade,Serbia, [email protected], [email protected] (Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION deliberately excluded. The main characteristic of this method lies in the The hail damages were measured by a evaluation of all the advantages and all the deficiencies of a commission, according to the established methodology, so certain project, which leads to the final judgment about its we may conclude that the percentage of the damage of financial effects. This evaluation is based on a systematic agricultural cultures was determined objectively. Likewise, aggregation of all the financial means necessary for project during the damage estimation, there were taken in realization, on one hand, and of all the benefits obtainable consideration even those damages caused by the loss of crop from the project, on the other. quality in the areas partially damaged by the hail. The main principle used in a cost-benefit analysis The data about the hail suppression costs were application on a hail suppression project is based on a estimated on the basis of apposite reports made by requirement that total benefits deriving from a project must competent state bodies, while the national product value in be greater in comparison with total means invested. agriculture was officially published by an authorized state institution. For the purposes of the indicated analysis, in the
II. METHODOLOGY Table I are given the initial and derived values, which The principal methods for the evaluation of the hail should allow us to determine the economic effects of hail suppression may be expressed through the following two suppression with a high grade of certainty. criteria: The mentioned values are: ¾ Present value of net benefit criterion 2 1. B protected area (ha)(1ha=0.01km ), ¾ Cost- benefit relation coefficient 2. Ts hail suppression costs expressed in fixed The present value of net benefit criterion (Kns) 5 prices, with the year 1972 as basis. (10 equals the difference between total benefits and total costs of RSD), the project: 3. d national product in agruculture per Kns = Ks – Ts 2 5 ha(1ha=0.01km ) (10 RSD), Ks – Total benefit of the hail suppression project; 4. S(b) total hail damage in the protected area Ts – Total costs of the hail suppression project. reduced to a 100% damaged area (ha) The evaluation of the hail suppression project 2 (1ha=0.01km ), according to this criterion presupposes a positive difference 5. S(n) total hail damage in the non-protected between the indicated values, that is: area reduced to a 100% damaged area Kns > 0 (ha) (1ha=0.01km2), This difference indicates, in fact, the positive 6. K(n) relation between total damage in the effects of hail suppression. examined non-protected area and the The cost-benefit relation coefficient, Ko, is size of the examined non-protected area represented by the relation between benefits and total costs (%), nS )( of the hail suppression project. At the same time, it indicates Kn = 100 Ns how much benefit may be obtained from each unit of the 7. m possible damage in protected area means invested in the hail suppression project, and it may be )( ⋅ BnK (ha) (1ha=0.01km2), expressed in the following way: 8. m-S(b) difference between possible and actual Ks K = damage in protected area (ha) o Ts (1ha=0.01km2),
9. E effect of hail supression According to this coefficient, the hail suppression (%), − bSm )( project is financially legitimate if its value is higher than 1 E = 100 m (Ko>1). 10. Ks value of the savings gained by hail suppression activities (105 RSD), III. DATA AND RESULTS = − ))(( dbSmKs The data used in the analysis enable the objective 11. Kns present value of net benefit criterion deduction about the project efficiency. The period of 32 5 (10 RSD), −= TsKsKns years, from 1972 to 2003, is long enough to show all the 12. K cost-benefit relation coefficient particularities in the behavior of all phenomena, while the o Ks effects of natural oscillation of the frequency and intensity Ko = of hailstorms, which in the short-term analysis may Ts significantly influence the final effects, have been
351 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
Year B Ts d S(b) S(n) K(n) m (m-S(b)) E Ks Kns Ko 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1972. 1093255 102,2 0,033 22914 85949 4,55 49743 26829 53,94 885,4 783,2 8,7 1973. 1137978 108,4 0,035 27279 57926 4,83 54964 27685 50,37 969,0 860,6 8,9 1974. 1184775 134,6 0,036 18615 52443 4,16 49287 30672 62,23 1104,2 969,6 8,2 1975. 1648612 164,3 0,035 12374 81443 4,70 77485 65111 84,03 2278,9 2114,6 13,9 1976. 1888658 299,2 0,038 13049 30259 3,05 57604 44555 77,35 1693,1 1393,9 5,7 1977. 2236575 377,7 0,040 76962 65093 5,31 123541 46579 37,70 1863,2 1485,5 4,9 1978. 2455712 417,3 0,035 36349 22744 3,65 89633 53284 59,45 1864,9 1447,6 4,5 1979. 2912735 379,6 0,038 21772 9254 1,30 37866 16094 42,50 611,6 232,0 1,6 1980. 3079377 299,1 0,040 25091 10848 2,34 72057 46966 65,18 1878,6 1579,5 6,3 1981. 3133651 270,0 0,040 23724 5792 1,94 60793 37069 60,98 1482,8 1212,8 5,5 1982. 3330067 288,1 0,044 24884 21205 6,16 205132 180248 87,87 7930,9 7642,8 27,5 1983. 3385784 271,3 0,043 14010 5856 2,20 74487 60477 81,19 2600,5 2329,2 9,6 1984. 3753002 257,1 0,042 13802 751 3,68 138110 124308 90,00 5220,9 4963,8 20,3 1985. 3760870 239,8 0,039 6765 - 3,68 138400 131635 95,11 5133,8 4894,0 21,4 1986. 3760870 256,3 0,044 22721 538 3,68 138400 115679 83,58 5089,9 4833,6 19,9 1987. 3760870 200,9 0,041 14856 12 3,68 138400 123544 89,27 5065,3 4864,4 25,2 1988. 3114280 195,4 0,048 28244 2133 3,68 138400 110156 79,59 5287,5 5092,1 27,1 1989. 3148692 181,3 0,045 38246 371 3,68 114605 76359 66,63 3436,2 3254,9 19,0 1990. 3148692 188,9 0,041 5428 - 3,68 114605 109177 95,26 4476,3 4287,4 23,7 1991. 3148692 177,9 0,044 17669 - 3,68 114605 96936 84,58 4265,2 4087,3 24,0 1992. 3930204 233,6 0,038 22172 - 3,68 144631 122459 84,67 4653,4 4419.8 19,9 1993. 3938305 244,6 0,036 40630 - 3,68 144930 104300 71,97 3754,8 3510,2 15,4 1994. 3936455 229,9 0,038 17090 - 3,68 144862 127772 88,20 4855,3 4625,4 21,2 1995. 3936728 265,2 0,039 44088 - 3,68 144872 100784 69,57 3930,6 3665,4 14,8 1996. 3914956 198,1 0,039 11787 - 3,68 144070 132283 91,82 5159,0 4960,9 26,0 1997. 3910060 184,0 0,043 72225 - 3,68 143890 71665 49,81 3081,6 2897,6 16,7 1998. 3909845 200,3 0,042 27952 - 3,68 143882 115930 80,57 4869,1 4668,8 24,3 1999. 3329495 135,1 0,041 106471 - 3,68 122525 16054 13,10 658,2 523,1 4,9 2000. 3321721 192,8 0,043 25475 - 3,68 122239 96764 79,16 4160,9 3968,1 21,6 2001. 3323628 197,3 0,044 21480 - 3,68 122310 100830 82,44 4436,5 4239,2 22,5 2002. 3323725 241,9 0,044 18330 - 3,68 122313 103983 85,01 4575,3 4333,4 18,9 2003. 3323725 309,0 0,045 22422 - 3,68 122313 99891 81,67 4495,1 4186,1 14,5 ∑ 99181994 7441,2 ------104326,8 - TABLE I: Data and values of the Cost-benefit analysis of the hail suppression project in Serbia in the period between 1972 and 2003 (RSD) The present value of net benefit criterion, which equals In the same period, the amount of positive functioning the value between total benefits and total costs of the project effects equaled 619.517.815 USD. Considering the fact that in the examined period of time, has positive values, which in the period 1972-2003 the size of the protected area in indicates its positive effects, even though these values vary Serbia equaled 99.181.994 ha of agricultural area, we can between 232,0x105 RSD in 1979 and 7.642,8x105 RSD in reach the conclusion that an average amount of 0,445 USD 1982. Its average amount for the period 1972-2003 equals per ha was being invested each year in the implementation 3.260,2x105 RSD, or 19.359.860 USD, calculated according of the main and regional projects and in the improvement of to the average annual currency rate valid in 1972 the functioning of the hail suppression system as a totality. (1USD=16,48 RSD). On the other hand, the effects of the hail suppression equal The cost- benefit relation coefficient shows how an average annual amount of 6,25 USD per hectare of much benefit is obtainable from each unit of project costs. protected area, which means that each invested dollar had The values of this coefficient are low in the initial period of been regained 14 times. project development, especially in 1979 (1.6). In the The Cost-benefit analysis allows in a concrete and successive period of hail suppression project development comprehensive way to determine the effects of hail the values of this coefficient increase, and in particular in suppression in Serbia. Further statistical analysis verifies the 1982 (27,5), 1988. (27,1) and 1996.(26,0). In 1999 this exactness of the present net benefit criterion as well as of the coefficient vas relatively low (4,9), as, due to the war, the cost-benefit relation coefficient. This confirms that the hail suppression system wasn’t functional in the period of conclusions about the high level efficiency of the hail the year when the Cb clouds are usually most intensive. suppression project, along with the validity of the Generally looking, in the period 1972-2003, investments in its future implementation and development, 744.120.000 RSD ( 44.187.650 USD) or averagely may be considered entirely reliable. 23.254.000 RSD (1.380.880 USD) a year were invested in the hail suppression system in Serbia. Due to good V. REFERENCES functioning of the project, the positive effects of hail Mesinger F., Mesinger N., Has Hail Suppression in Eastern suppression in Serbia reached the amount of 10.432.680.000 Yugoslavia Led to a Reduction in the Frequency of RSD (619.517.815 USD). That practically means that every Hail, Journal of Applied Meteorology: Vol 31, No.1, RSD (USD) invested in hail suppression project was pp.104-111; regained 14 times through its positive effects. D. Vujovic, Z.Babic and Z.Vucinic,2007: 40 Years of Hail Suppression in Serbia, 9th WMO Scientific Conference on IV. CONCLUSION Weather Modification The average criterion of present net benefit (326.020.000 Radinovic D. and.Curic M, 2008: A specific evidence of hail RSD, that is 19.359.860 USD) along with single values of suppression effectiveness in Serbia, J.Wea.Mod. 39, 75-84. the cost-benefit relation coefficient clearly indicate the full Radinovic D.,1989: Effectiveness of the hail control in economic validity of the investments in the hail suppression Serbia, J.Wea.Mod. 21, 75-84 system in Serbia during the examined period. Mitic M.,2006: Upravljanje sistemom zaštite od grada u During the period between 1972 and 2003, an Srbiji, Fakultet za menadžmet, PhD dissertation (in amount of 44.187.650 USD was invested in the hail serbian) suppression project in Serbia according to the average annual exchange rate between USD and RSD, valid in 1972.
352 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
IMPACT OF TWO SEVERE STORM SYSTEMS OVER SÃO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL Daniel Henrique Candido1, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes1, Gerhard Held2 1University of Campinas (UNICAMP), R. João Pandiá Calógeras, 51 – 13.093-970, Campinas, SP, Brazil, [email protected]; [email protected] 2Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista (IPMet/UNESP), Bauru, S.P., Brazil 15 September 2009
I. INTRODUCTION losses, one person died as a result of the collapse of a wall On 4 May 2001 a tornado hit 5 different cities in the and a 9-year old child was seriously injured. Because the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, impacting the areas significantly. tornado track extended over 50 km, the damages caused On 24 May 2005 another tornado struck a nearby area, could be extensively recorded. Among the consequences one causing again severe damages. It is worth mentioning that can quote brick building destructions and power outages in both storm systems occurred in autumn. dozens of cities, since high-voltage towers were hit, forcing This study aims to determine the physical conditions the power distribution stations in the region to disrupt that triggered the two systems, evaluating the impacts on the operations (Folha de São Paulo, May, 05, 2001). local population. Concerning the episode of 2005, the strong winds II. DISCUSSION caused the collapse of numerous houses, left 110 homeless The State of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, and .destroyed roofs on 400 other buildings. The overturning encompasses approximately 249,000 km2 and it is the most of 18 railroad cars testifies the high speed of winds in the developed and populated state of the country. At the western city of Indaiatuba., where the impact was particularly severe edge of the Atlantic Ocean, along with the variations in its since the tornado hit the poor neighbourhoods, where local topography, São Paulo presents a variety of atmospheric population presents higher degree of social vulnerability. conditions that cause heavy precipitation episodes (Candido and Nunes, 2009). The area is affected by tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude controls and during summer the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (ZCAS) enhances the convective activity, connecting humidity from the Amazonian basin to the Atlantic coast. The region is also influenced by the negative phase of ENSO as well as occasional Mesoscale Convective Complexes. These atmospheric conditions are associated with high instability and development of storm cells and because of the high density of population and economic activities, these situations can adversely affect the area. Southern South America is ranked as the second area of higher risk to tornadoes in the world (Vesilind, 2004). FIG 1 shows the core area of tornadoes in South America and FIG 2, the episodes recorded in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. The study evaluated the development of two storm systems over the state: on 4 May 2001 a powerful tornado hit five municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas, a densely populated and economically important area. Wind speeds of around 300 km/h were recorded, and caused severe damages. The second event, on 24 May 2005, FIG 1: Area of higher occurrence of tornadoes in South America. was dominated by a strong cold front that moved fast north- eastward to the centre of the state, with high instability sustaining severe storms, and one of them spawned a multi- vortex tornado (F3) that hit three cities. Satellite composite and radar images were used to evaluate the storm systems. Both were associated with a conflict between dry cold and hot humid air masses, favouring the development of storms in the western sector of the State, moving south-eastward, following the River Tiete, which provided additional humidity and intensified the storm systems. The episodes heavily impacted the areas, causing severe damages. The first episode (2001) registered wind speeds over 300 km/h according to CEPAGRI-UNICAMP (Center of Agricultural Research of the University of Campinas). The damage was consistent with winds of major proportions, as trees and electric poles were twisted. The city of Sumaré was particularly affected by the FIG. 2: Tornadoes and waterspouts recorded in the the State of São storm: besides the infrastructure damages and economic Paulo, Brazil, from 1957 to 2007.
353 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
combination of complex atmospheric mechanisms that lead to high instabilities and the morphological and hydrological characteristics of the area. However, no tornado action plan exists either in São Paulo or in any other Brazilian state, a fact that contributes to increase the risk to this hazardous phenomenon. The study compared two tornadoes recorded in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Great similarity in the atmospheric conditions leading to the formation of supercells in both cases, was found. Interestingly, even the timing of the events was similar: the two storms reached maturity at around 16:00 (FIG 3 and FIG 4). Radar and FIG. 3: Supercell of May 04, 2001 near Campinas, SP satellite composition showed that in both cases systems advanced from northwest, associated with atmospheric disturbances arising from the ZCAS. The episode of 2005 was particularly well publicised, since it was recorded on video and its losses were higher, since the tornado hit a large and modern industrial park. But the 2001 event was also significant and caused one death.
IV. AKNOWLEDGMENTS D.H. Candido and L.H.Nunes would like to thank the members of LECLIG-UNICAMP for fruitful discussions and friendship. The authors also thank the IPMet staff for providing radar data, in special Ms. Georgia J. Pellegrinna.
FIG. 4: Supercell of May 24, 2005 near Campinas, SP L.H. Nunes is grateful for FAPESP (Proc. 2009/10477-3) for the financial support to attend the 5th ECSS Conference. III. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS V. REFERENCES The two selected episodes of severe storms Antonio, M.A., Antonio, C.A.A., Figueiredo, J.C. 2005: associated with tornadoes presented similarities: both were Anais registered in the same period of the year (May) and followed Tornados no Outono de 2004 no Interior Paulista. XII Simpósio de Sensoriamento Remoto a northwest-southeast path. Radar and satellite analysis , INPE, p. 2819- 2826 showed that in both cases the storms were associated with an Blessmann, J. 2002: Acidentes causados pelo vento. enhanced ZCAS. Some hours before the storm clouds were formed as the convergence zone was intensified, in response UFRGS, Porto Alegre, Brazil. to the contrast between the warm and moist air of ZCAS and Candido, D.H., Nunes, L.H. 2009: Influência da Orografia na Precipitação da Área Entre o Vale do Rio Tietê e a a polar air mass. Serra da Mantiqueira. Revista Geousp, n.24, p. 8-27,. During the event of 2001, winds exceeding 300 km/h were recorded, as could be attested by the kind of damages Folha de São Paulo: Sumaré contabiliza danos to the structures (Blessmann, 2002). Power poles and causados pelo tornado de ontem transmission lines collapsed and many of them presented
354 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
Variability of Indo-Pacific tropical cyclone activity and related socioeconomic disasters
C. Welker1, N. Dotzek1, E. Faust2 1Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Dynamik der Atmosph¨are, M¨unchner Straße 20, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling, Germany, [email protected] and 2M¨unchener R¨uckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, K¨oniginstraße 107, 80802 M¨unchen, Germany, [email protected] (Dated: September 18, 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION NatCatSERVICE database is used, representing the direct so- cial and economic impacts of TCs. The primary goal of our investigation is to improve sea- sonal and multiseasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) ac- tivity and finally of TC-related socioeconomic disasters in the III. INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF TC ACTIVITY Pacific and Indian Ocean region, whereby the focus is on the western North Pacific (WNP). Natural disasters are loss events with socioeconomic as well as natural causes. One group of ENSO varies on both interannual and interdecadal causal factors is hazardous events like TC-related winds and timescales (e.g., Wang (1995)). In the wavelet analysis of the monthly mean Ni˜no-3.4 index (sea surface temperature (SST) floods. Other groups are exposure and vulnerability character- ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ istics of the exposed elements (i.e., people, infrastructure, and anomaly averaged over 5 S-5 N, 170 W-120 W), from 1970 economic activities) that make them susceptible to damage to 2006, the variance changed on two timescales that are sig- from the occurrenceof a specific type of hazard. Like climate- nificant at the 5 % level: 1.3-6.6 years and 9.3-15.6years (Fig. related hazard events, value concentration and damage sus- 1). In this work, it is shown that the interannual variability of ceptibility are dependent on both space and time. Interannual variations of TC activity over the Indo-Pacific region can be 0.25 associated with the El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as 0.50 was shown by previous studies. Using disaster data from Mu- 1.00 nich Re’s NatCatSERVICE database, one of the most com- 2.00 4.00 prehensive global natural catastrophe databases, and TC best- period / years track and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) pre- 8.00 95 % cipitation data, two questions are considered: Do TC activity 16.00 95 % anomalies become more extreme or widespread during ENSO 32.00 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 10 20 time (year) power / K2 extremes? To what extent do TC-related socioeconomic dis- power / K2 asters change during El Ni˜no/La Ni˜na conditions? Further- 1.7e−06 6.6 13. 20. 26. 33. 39. more, it is very important to study the interdecadal variability of TC activity, which may be helpful in reducing human and FIG. 1: Wavelet analysis of monthly mean Ni˜no-3.4 index from monetary damages through proper preparation before the TC 1970 to 2006. Left: Local wavelet power spectrum using the Mor- season. In this work, interdecadal ENSO variability is linked let wavelet. The left axis is the wavelet period (in yr). The bottom 2 with observed interdecadal variations of TC activity over the axis is time (yr). The shaded contours are the wavelet power (in K ). WNP. Finally, possible changes in this interdecadal variability The thick white contour encloses regions of greater than 95 % confi- of ENSO respectively of WNP TC activity due to greenhouse dence. Cross-hatched regions indicate the ”cone of influence” (COI), global warming are examined. where edge effects become important. Right: Global wavelet spec- trum. The left axis is the wavelet period (in yr). The bottom axis is the wavelet power (in K2). The dotted line is the 95 % confidence level for the global wavelet spectrum. II. TC ACTIVITY Indo-Pacific TC activity can be largely associated with the in- In this study, the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index terannual ENSO variability (Fig. 2). Peculiarities in climate is employed to describe TC activity. ACE is a quantity that and disaster data are linked with dynamic and thermodynamic combines the number, lifetimes, and intensities (i.e., maxi- conditions in the atmosphere. For example, during El Ni˜no mum wind speed) of TCs. It is derived from the Joint Typhoon conditions, anomalous westerlies over the East China Sea and Warning Center (JTWC) best-track data set (TC center loca- Sea of Japan would likely steer a TC that forms east of the tions and intensities at 6-hour intervals). On the other hand, Philippines northward instead of moving into the Asia main- TC track information is directly associated with global data land. As a result, TC activity in Japan and in the areas to its of lightning and precipitation (rainfall for 0.25◦x0.25◦ grid east is likely enhanced. In contrast, less TCs follow the west- boxes every 3 hours) obtained from instruments onboard the ward track across the Philippines and the South China Sea. TRMM satellite. This allows evaluation of lightning and pre- Consequently, TC activity is likely decreased there. During cipitation rate in tropical storms, as alternate measures of cy- La Ni˜na the dynamic conditions in the atmosphere are almost clone intensity. Furthermore, disaster data from Munich Re’s reversed. This corresponds well with preceding studies (e.g.,
355 2
40N 95 % tivity can be linked with interdecadal ENSO variability (Fig. 30N
20N 3): The correlation between the reconstructed time series of
10N the monthly mean Ni˜no-3.4 index and the reconstructed time ◦ EQ series of the monthly mean ACE over the WNP basin (0 N- ◦ ◦ ◦ 10S 50 N, 100 E-160 E) fortheperiodfrom 1970to 2006and the 20S 9.3-15.6-year time scale amounts to approximately 90 % with 30S a confidence of 94 %. To estimate the statistical significance 40S 40E 70E 100E 130E 160E 170W 140W of a correlation, a bootstrap technique is used. 40N 95 % 30N
20N IV. FUTURE DECADAL CYCLES OF TC ACTIVITY 10N
EQ
10S Future SST projections are taken from UK Met Office 20S HadGEM1 general circulation model (GCM) simulations. 30S The HadGEM1 simulations had historical anthropogenic forc- 40S 40E 70E 100E 130E 160E 170W 140W ing from December 1970 to November 1999 (simulation
-6.3 -5.5 -4.8 -4.0 -3.3 -2.6 -1.8 -1.1 -0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 started in December 1859), excluding volcanic eruptions and (J kg−1) / (103 km2 month) the solar cycle. From December 1999 to December 2099, the simulations followed the IPCC SRES scenario A1B. The in- −1 3 2 FIG. 2: Anomaly of the ACE index in J kg per 10 km and terdecadal variability of HadGEM1 SST averaged over the month, 1980-2005 (sample period and climatology): El Ni˜no (above) Ni˜no-3.4 region from 1980 to 2099 is shown as a dotted and La Ni˜na (below). El Ni˜no and La Ni˜na months are defined ac- line in Fig. 3. The correlation between this curve and the cording to the monthly mean Ni˜no-3.4 index from 1950 to 2007. The observed interdecadal ENSO variability (solid) for the over- upper and lower 25 % of the distribution delimit ENSO extremes (El Ni˜no and La Ni˜na). Remaining months are classified as neutral. The lapping period from 1980 to 2006 amounts to around 84 % nonparametric Wilcoxon Rank-Sum test is used to test the hypothesis with a confidence of 92 %. Consequently, the interdecadal that the respective samples for each 5◦x5◦ grid box have significantly ENSO variability is well simulated in the HadGEM1 model. (i.e., significant at the 5 % level) different means of distribution in The reconstructed monthly mean HadGEM1 SST averaged comparison with the whole population. Significant grid boxes are over the Ni˜no-3.4 region and the reconstructed monthly mean marked with ”x”. ACE index over the WNP (dashed) for periods 9.3-15.6 years are highly correlated: The linear correlation between both wavelet-filtered time series for the period from 1980 to 2006 is 90 % and significant at the 5 % level. Thus, the HadGEM1
Niño−3.4 obs. SST simulations can be used in modeling future interdecadal 2 Niño−3.4 mod. ACE cycles of TC activity over the WNP basin. 1
0 V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS −1 standardized anomalies −2 TC-related winds, precipitation, and socioeconomic loss
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 events were employed to describe TC activity, with the main time (year) emphasis on TC-related losses. ENSO is the dominant mode of interannual variability of Indo-Pacific TC activity. Further- FIG. 3: Reconstruction of the monthly mean Ni˜no-3.4 index from more, interdecadal variations of TC activity over the WNP are 1970 to 2006 (solid), of the monthly mean HadGEM1 SST aver- associated with the interdecadal ENSO variability. HadGEM1 aged over the Ni˜no-3.4 region from 1980 to 2099 (dotted), and of the SST simulations are appropriate in estimating future inter- monthly mean ACE-Index for the WNP from 1970 to 2006 (dashed) decadal cycles of ENSO and finally of WNP TC activity. for periods 9.3-15.6 years. Standardization is done in the usual way, We regard this approach as a promising method of predicting i.e., by dividing all values of the respective variable by its standard deviation. multiseasonal TC activity and related socioeconomic disasters over the WNP.
Chan (2000)). Different measures of TC activity, like TC- related winds, rainfall, and socioeconomic disasters, are cor- VI. REFERENCES related. For instance, in the South China Sea and during El Ni˜no (La Ni˜na), not only the anomaly of the ACE index is Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical Cyclone Activity over the negative (positive) (as shown in Fig. 2) but also the rain rate Western North Pacific Associated with El Ni˜no and La Ni˜na in TCs is significantly decreased (increased) and the number Events. J. Climate, 13, 2960–2972. of TC-related loss events in this region is below (above) the Wang, B., 1995: Interdecadal Changes in El Ni˜no Onset in longtime average. Interdecadal variability of WNP TC ac- the Last Four Decades. J. Climate, 8, 267–285.
356 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 – 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
SEVERE LOCAL STORMS CULTURAL HERITAGE Gladich I.1, Gallai I.2, Giaiotti D. B.2,3 , Morgan G. M. Jr.4, Stel F.2,3
1Department of Chemistry, Purdue University,West Lafayette IN 47906 USA 2ARPA - FVG, Regional Center for Environmental Modeling, Palmanova (UD), Italy. 3ESSL - European Severe Storms Laboratory, 82234 Wessling, Germany 47490 Julian St.,Westminster, Colorado 80030, USA
(Dated: 15 September 2009)
I. INTRODUCTION with the behaviour of small tornadoes (or of simple funnel Far to be just obsolete aspects or old fashioned clouds) which characterize FVG climate. Similar nouns are cultural remnants, the popular nouns used to describe severe used even in South Africa, where tornadoes are called storms represent the quintessence of Peoples' awareness on “inkanyamba” which is a winged-snake that lives in waters atmospheric hazards, of the fears they aroused and of the and flies in the sky looking for his mate. myths they recalled. This work is devoted to the collection of popular nouns used (many of them still in use) when referring to severe storms and their aspects. Whenever it is possible, an explanation of their etymon is given or proposed according to the available cultural evidences. All the informations achieved and here reported were dig out during the authors spear time, starting from Friuli Venezia Giulia and then, pushed by curiosity, moving to neighbour regions, countries and continents. This collection is, of course, nor fully complete neither totally correct; moreover, being a work in progress, this collection will clearly achieve benefits from every feed-back or suggestion.
II. HOURLY FREQUENCY OF DMC ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ALPS FIG. 1: tornado observed at Villalta di Fagagna. It clearly shows a Tornadoes are, by far, the most impressive aspect “rope” or “tail” shape. of severe storms, both for their relative rareness and for their An interesting blend between the nouns based on animals extreme impact on people and properties. It is then not realm and esoteric aspects is represented by the terms surprising that, even in a small region like Friuli Venezia “codabava” (tail-of-the-old-woman) and “bissabova” Giulia (hereafter FVG) more than five nouns are used (snake-of-the-old-woman)a. According to several agrary referring to tornadoes. In FVG, in fact, even if these events traditions of FVG (Ginzburg, 1996), in fact, even dust devils are relatively rare, they are enough frequent to keep alive are often related to witches, which are often considered their memory in the whole region from year to year. responsibles of hail (produced by witches on the top of tall Moreover, being Friuli Venezia Giulia a crossroad of mountains, some of them called “baba”, and then thrown on Peoples, every different migration put into this ethnic the plain and valleys). The connection between witches, melting pot its knowledge and tradition. tornadoes and dust devils is present even in other Italian regions. As an example, in Umbria (central Italy), tornadoes The most common class of nouns used referring to and dust devils are called “la vecchia” (the-old-woman). A tornadoes in FVG is that which associate this accessory similar tradition is present in Northern africa and in Arabia cloud to the tail of animals. Among the different variants, but, in that area, dust devils and tornadoes are believed to be one of the most used is “codamussa” (tail-of-the-donkey). produced by a male chief of genies called Zaoubaa. It is interesting to notice that many of the FVG tornadoes are quite weak (Giaiotti et al., 2007, Bertato et al, 2003), then Not all the found nouns have their roots in often characterized by a relatively unstable vortex, whose agricultural traditions (animals or legends). In fact, a word behaviour is quite well mimicked by the nervous movement often used in FVG, in the neighbour Veneto and Istrian of a quadruped's tail. Differently from FVG, in Sicily the Peninsula to indicate tornadoes and waterspouts is “seon” noun used referring to tornadoes (essentially waterspouts) is and “seonere”, which spring out respectively from the latin “turrita” (the-column), this because, probably thanks to the noun “scione” (pipe) and “scione aer” (pipe-of-air). This weaker drag exerted by open sea, even small waterspouts nouns, currently still in use popularly, clearly indicate an can remain stable for a long time in their column-shape attempt to scientifically describe, if not explain, tornadoes. aspect. Quite surprisingly, very few nouns (only one to the authors Another class of nouns adopted in FVG is that which connect tornadoes to snakes; among all the variants, a This translation is based on the interpretation of “bava” and “bisson” (huge-snake) is the most frequent. Even for this bova” as “baba”, a noun still used in FVG to indicate old noun, it is possible to interpret the fast movement of snakes women and which comes from the Slave noun “babicka” which means “grandmother”.
357 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 – 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY knowledge), are based or simply referred to the rotation of IV. REFERENCES tornadoes which, on the contrary, is the relevant aspects and Bertato M., Giaiotti D. B., Manzato A., Stel F., 2003. An essence of the current scientific studies. The only noun interesting case of tornado in Friuli-Northeastern Italy, found concerning rotation of tornadoes is “foradorie” Atmos. Res. 67-68, 3-21 (gimlet), it is present only in some small areas of FVG and it seems quite recent. Giaiotti, D. B., M. Giovannoni, A. Pucillo, F. Stel, 2007: The climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy. Atmos. Res., 83, 534–541
Ginzburg C., 1996. I Benandanti, stregoneria e culti agrari tra Cinquecento e Seicento, Piccola Biblioteca Einaudi, Torino (in Italian)
FIG. 2: Waterspout observed in may 1982 on the Gulf of Trieste with a snakeish shape.
Even the popular expression currently used in Italy referring to tornadoes, “tromba d'aria” (trump-of-air) does not mention the swirling of these phenomena, but only their shape, differently from the word tornado, which comes from the Spanish verb “tornar” (to-turn). It is even interesting to underline the fact that, since the word use in Italian is “trump” and not “funnel”, maybe this is related to the noise produced by tornadoes. In fact, a verb often used in Friulian to indicate the strong noise of the stormy winds is “businà”, whose root is in the latin noun “buccina”, which was a trump used by roman legions during their marches. In this way, the noise of the storm is compared to the noise of a marching army similarly, even if differently, to what is done with the English expression “squall line”.
Quite often, tornadoes and straight-line winds are confused in popular traditions. However, a word often used in FVG to indicate severe winds related to thunderstorms is “bogadizza” whose etymology is still unclear. The most plausible explanation of the origin of this noun refers to the frequent migrations (voluntary or imposed) of Slave people into the friulian plain. The slovenian expression “bog-je-da” (send-by-god), sometimes referred to weather phenomena, sounds quite similar to “bogadizza” specially adding to “bog-je-da” the suffix “-izza” often associated to feminine words. If this interpretation would be correct, the noun “bogadizza” might be translated as “she-send-by-god”.
It is not possible to face popular words and traditions without tackling even lightning. Lightning, in fact, represent a peculiar phenomenon, which in FVG was once called tarlup (the noun is currently almost disappeared in common speaking). The origin of this noun is still not clear, but it might be ascribed to the same root of teshup, a god of thunder and lightning of the indo-european empyrean.
III. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Man y people contributed to the collection of the above reported informations. Among these, a special thanks goes to Samir Lamara, Desmond Pyle, Mauro Giovannoni, Alma Preshern, Cristian Kompare.
358 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY
AN ILLUSTRATED VERBAL DESCRIPTION OF THE TORRO- AND FUJITA-SCALES ADAPTED FOR CENTRAL EUROPE CONSIDERING BUILDING STRUCTURE AND VEGETATION CHARACTERISTICS Bernold Feuerstein1, Erik Dirksen2, Nikolai Dotzek1, Pieter Groenemeijer1, Alois Holzer1, Martin Hubrig2, Ernst Rauch3
1 European Severe Storms Laboratory, 82234 Wessling, Germany, [email protected] 2 Skywarn Germany, 49504 Lotte-Wersen, Germany, [email protected] 3 Munich Re Group, 80802 München, Germany (Dated: 15 September 2009)
Determination of tornado or downburst intensity is a FIG. 1 gives an overview of the F- and T-scale, the related difficult task, as it is mostly done using the damage wind speeds, and typical loss ratios S for light (S–) and occurring with a storm. Only in very rare cases are there strong (S+) buildings in Central Europe. The quantity "loss reliable measurements of wind speed. A grading of intensity ratio" is often applied in the insurance industry and denotes is done either using the Fujita-scale (F- or EF-scale) or the the ratio of property damage to reinstatement value in TORRO-scale (T-scale), or using both classifications. In percent. These values adapted for Central Europe were order to determine which typical property-, building-, and determined in cooperation with Munich Reinsurance vegetation damage occurs with the different classes of the F- (Dotzek et al., 2000). /T-scales or the newly developed E-scale (Dotzek, 2009) one The scales reach from –2 to 6 (F-scale) and –4 to needs a verbal description of that damage. A simple 13 (T-scale), respectively. But only the grades F0 to F5 or adoption of the description valid in the USA (EF-scale) is T0 to T11 are really being applied. The tornadoes with not very helpful in Europe since the construction of homes negative scale values are so weak that they do not cause any differs significantly. A verbal description of the TORRO- damage. For the existence of F6 tornadoes (T12, T13), there and Fujita-scales adapted for Central Europe considering is currently only little evidence. And besides, there is an building structure and vegetation characteristics (Hubrig, 2004) was developed by ESSL, Skywarn Germany and Munich Re members in 2004 (Dotzek et al., 2000; 2004), but so far was only available in German.
In a joint effort within the BMBF project RegioExAKT, ESSL and Skywarn Germany supplemented the verbal T- scale damage description by photos of typical damage. The updated text is now available in English and considers wind impact to light and strong buildings as well as vegetation.
FIG. 1: Overview of the F- and T-scale, the related wind speeds, and typical loss ratios S for light (S–) and strong (S+) buildings in FIG. 2: Weak tornado damage (T3/F1 – 151-183 km/h); upper part: Central Europe. 29.05.2007 - Borler / German (Photo: Erik Dirksen), lower part: 01.03.2008 - Uttershausen / Hessen (Foto: Eyk Neidert)
359 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY estimate of maximum tornado windspeeds close to the F5 to F6 threshold, which comes from energy budget calculations. The terms to coarsely classify tornado intensity in the table are also important: Weak (F0, F1), strong (F2, F3), and violent (F4, F5). FIG. 2 to 4 show typical damage to buildings as well as to vegetation out of these three classes. Tornadoes with an intensity of F2 or greater are called significant, while tornadoes with negative F- or T-scale are named subcritical. The verbal damage description contains typical values for the loss ratios. This readily enables us to include building structure representative for Central Europe when determining tornado or downburst intensity. Forest damage was recently investigated (Hubrig, 2004). As the stability of e.g. trees is certainly much more uniform worldwide as that of buildings, a scientific overview of vegetation damage analysis is very important and desirable. In Europe since the 19th century, there has been a tradition to put emphasis on the assessment of forest damage occurring with winter cyclones or severe local storms like tornadoes and downbursts.
FIG. 4: Violent tornado damage (T8/F4 – 335-377 km/h); upper part: 01.06.1927 - Auen / Germany (Photo: Heinz Brinkmann), lower part: 03.08.2008 - Hautmont / France (Photo: Bjoern Stumpf).
V. REFERENCES Dotzek N., 2009: Derivation of physically motivated wind speed scales. Atmospheric Research, 93 564–574. Hubrig M., 2004: Analyse von Tornado- und Downburst- Windschäden an Bäumen. Forst und Holz, 59 78–84. Dotzek N., Berz G., Rauch E., Peterson R. E., 2000: Die Bedeutung von Johannes P. Letzmanns "Richtlinien zur Erforschung von Tromben, Tornados, Wasserhosen und Kleintromben" für die heutige Tornadoforschung. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 9 165–174. Dotzek N., Hubrig M., Berz G., 2004: TORRO- und Fujita- Skala-Beschreibung, angepasst für Mitteleuropa. http://www.tordach.org/FT_scales.htm .
FIG. 3: Strong tornado damage (T5/F2 – 220-254 km/h); upper part: 29.06.1997 - Bissendorf / Germany (Photo: Martin Hubrig), lower part: 18.07.2004 - Tönisvorst / Germany (Photo: Thomas Sävert).
IV. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors are grateful to the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the financial support via the project RegioExAKT.
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