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Market Study in the Context of Decentralized Energy Supply Using Renewable Energy Technologies in Selected Russian Regions

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Market Study in the Context of Decentralized Energy Supply Using Renewable Energy Technologies in Selected Russian Regions STUDY Market study in the context of decentralized energy supply using renewable energy technologies in selected Russian regions Publisher Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) German Energy Agency Chausseestraße 128 a 10115 Berlin, Germany Tel: +49 (0)30 66 777 - 0 Fax: +49 (0)30 66 777 - 699 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.dena.de Authors George Kekelidze, Eurosolar Russia Alexey Kaplun, Eurosolar Russia Ulf Lohse, eclareon GmbH Tatiana Andreeva, eclareon GmbH Georgy Ermolenko, Higher School of Economics Moscow (HSE) Alina Rodina, Higher School of Economics Moscow (HSE) Date: 10/2019 All rights reserved. Any use is subject to consent by dena. All content has been prepared with the greatest possible care and is provided in good faith. dena provides no guarantee regarding the currency, accuracy and completeness of the information provided. dena accepts no liability for damages of a tangible or intangible nature caused directly or indirectly by the use of or failure to use the information provided, unless dena can be proven to have acted with intent or gross negligence. Please quote as: German Energy Agency (dena, 2020): “Market study in the context of decentralized energy supply using renewable energy technologies in selected Russian regions“ Contents Objectives of the market study ........................................................................................ 6 Executive summary ......................................................................................................... 7 Сводное Резюме (Executive Summary) ........................................................................... 9 1 Introduction to energy supply in remote areas in Russia ...................................... 11 1.1 History and overview ................................................................................................ 11 1.2 Energy and supply in remote areas .......................................................................... 12 1.3 Legal and regulatory framework for off-grid energy supply ................................... 14 1.4 Off-grid renewable energy projects.......................................................................... 23 1.5 Selection of regions .................................................................................................. 24 1.6 Financing and profitability analysis of renewable energy business models .......... 26 2 Detailed analysis of target regions ..................................................................... 28 2.1 Sakha (Yakutia) ......................................................................................................... 29 2.1.1 Current energy supply situation and renewable energy potential ......................... 29 2.1.2 Electricity tariffs and costs ........................................................................................ 35 2.1.3 Extreme cases of high electricity costs in Yakutia .................................................... 38 2.1.4 Regional business environment & specific legal and regulatory framework for energy supply ............................................................................................................ 39 2.1.5 Regional specific business case ................................................................................ 41 2.1.6 Business model description ..................................................................................... 41 2.1.7 Profitability analysis (inputs, outputs, scenarios, sensitivities) .............................. 43 2.1.8 Potential for cooperation/business opportunities and recommendations ........... 48 2.1.9 Risks and barriers ...................................................................................................... 49 2.2 Kamchatka ................................................................................................................ 52 dena study „Market study in the context of decentralized energy supply using renewable energy technologies in selected Russian regions“ 3 2.2.1 Current energy supply situation and renewable energy potential ......................... 52 2.2.2 Electricity tariffs and costs ........................................................................................ 58 2.2.3 Regional business environment & specific legal and regulatory framework for energy supply ............................................................................................................ 62 2.2.4 Regional specific business case ................................................................................ 64 2.2.5 Business model description ..................................................................................... 64 2.2.6 Profitability analysis (inputs, outputs, scenarios, sensitivities) .............................. 65 2.2.7 Potential for cooperation/business opportunities .................................................. 71 2.2.8 Risks and barriers ...................................................................................................... 72 2.3 Republic of Altai ........................................................................................................ 74 2.3.1 Current energy supply situation and renewable energy potential ......................... 74 2.3.2 Electricity tariffs and costs ........................................................................................ 78 2.3.3 Regional business environment & specific legal and regulatory framework for energy supply ............................................................................................................ 80 2.3.4 Regional specific business case ................................................................................ 81 2.3.5 Business model description ..................................................................................... 82 2.3.6 Profitability analysis (inputs, outputs, scenarios, sensitivities) .............................. 83 2.3.7 Potential for cooperation/business opportunities .................................................. 88 2.3.8 Risks and barriers ...................................................................................................... 89 2.4 Bashkortostan ........................................................................................................... 90 2.4.1 Current energy supply situation and renewable energy potential ......................... 90 2.4.2 Electricity tariffs and costs ........................................................................................ 94 2.4.3 Regional business environment & specific legal and regulatory framework for energy supply ............................................................................................................ 96 2.4.4 Regional specific business case ................................................................................ 96 2.4.5 Business model description ..................................................................................... 97 2.4.6 Profitability analysis (inputs, outputs, scenarios, sensitivities) .............................. 99 2.4.7 Potential for cooperation/business opportunities ................................................ 104 2.4.8 Risks and barriers .................................................................................................... 105 2.5 Krasnodar Krai ........................................................................................................ 106 2.5.1 Current energy supply situation and renewable energy potential ....................... 107 2.5.2 Electricity tariffs and costs ...................................................................................... 110 2.5.3 Regional business environment & specific legal and regulatory framework for energy supply .......................................................................................................... 111 2.5.4 Regional specific business case .............................................................................. 112 2.5.5 Business model description ................................................................................... 113 2.5.6 Profitability analysis (inputs, outputs, scenarios, sensitivities) ............................ 114 2.5.7 Potential for cooperation/business opportunities ................................................ 119 2.5.8 Risks and barriers .................................................................................................... 120 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................. 121 Figures ........................................................................................................................ 122 Tables ......................................................................................................................... 127 Bibliography .........................................................................................................128 Abbreviations .......................................................................................................137 dena study „Market study in the context of decentralized energy supply using renewable energy technologies in selected Russian regions“ 5 Objectives of the market study The German Energy Agency (dena) is implementing the "German-Russian Dialogue on Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies" with the support of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). The overall objective of this project is to sustainably improve the framework conditions for
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