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Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 Cultivation, Production and Implications

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Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 Cultivation, Production and Implications Research In Southeast Asia, UNODC supports Member States to develop and implement evidence‐ based rule of law, drug control and related criminal justice responses through the Regional Programme 2014‐2018 and aligned country programmes including the Myanmar Country Programme 2014‐2018. This study is connected to the Mekong MOU on Drug Control which UNODC actively supports through the Regional Programme, including the commitment to develop data and evidence as the basis for countries of the Mekong region to respond to challenges of drug production, trafficking and use. UNODC’s Research and Trend Analysis Branch promotes and supports the development and implementation of surveys globally, including through its Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (ICMP). The implementation of Myanmar opium survey was made possible thanks to the financial support of the Governments of Japan, the United States of America and China. UNODC Regional Office for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Telephone: +6622882100 Fax: +6622812129 Email: unodc‐[email protected] Website: www.unodc.org/southeastasiaandpacific Twitter: @UNODC_SEAP The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNODC concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city, or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Front cover photos: Jeremy Douglas and Akara Umapornsakula, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Contents Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................. i Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... i Key findings ....................................................................................................................... iii Fact Sheet ...........................................................................................................................v 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3 2. Findings .................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation ...................................................... 11 2.2 Opium yield and production estimates ................................................................... 15 2.3 Opium farm‐gate price ............................................................................................ 18 2.4 Opium economy in Myanmar .................................................................................. 19 3. Eradication and Seizures ........................................................................................... 25 3.1 Eradication ............................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Seizures .................................................................................................................... 27 4. Methodology ........................................................................................................... 31 4.1 Area estimation ....................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Yield and potential opium production estimation .................................................. 42 4.3 Estimating the value of opium economy in Myanmar ............................................ 47 Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 Acknowledgments Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control Pol. Lt. Gen. Aung Win Oo Chief of Myanmar Police Force, Secretary of CCDAC Pol. Brig. Gen. Win Naing Commander of Drug Enforcement Division, Joint Secretary of CCDAC Pol. Col. Oke Soe Tun Head of Project Management Department, CCDAC Forest Department Dr. Nyi Nyi Kyaw Director General, Forest Department U Saw Daniel Assistant Director, Forest Department UNODC Southeast Asia and the Pacific Jeremy Douglas Regional Representative, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Akara Umapornsakula Graphic Designer Katherine North UNAC International Development Programme Troels Vester Country Manager, Myanmar San Lwin Htwe GIS Specialist and Survey Coordinator Naing Lin Aung Data Analyst UNODC Headquarters Angela Me Chief, Research and Trend Analysis Branch (RAB) Anja Korenblik Chief, Programme and Development Unit (PDMU) Coen Bussink Programme Officer, Team Leader, PDMU Iban Ameztoy Aramendi Programme Officer, Remote Sensing and GIS, PDMU Lorenzo Vita Research Officer, PDMU Irmgard Zeiler Statistician, PDMU Abbreviations BGF Border Guard Force CCDAC Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control GOUM Government of the Republic of the Union on Myanmar HR High Resolution ICMP UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme KIA Kachin Independence Army KNLP Kayan New Land Party KNPLF Karenni National People’s Liberation Front KNPP Karenni National Progressive Party LCLU Land Cover Land Use MNDAA Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (Kokant) NDAA National Democratic Alliance Army (Mongla Special Region) PDMU Programme Management and Development Programme PMF People’s Militia Force (Local Militia Forces) PNLA Pa‐O National Liberation Army QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control RAB Research and Trend Analysis Branch RCSS Restoration Council of Shan State (Shan State Army‐South) SR Special Region SSPP Shan State Progress Party (Shan State Army‐North) SSS Shan State South (Homein) TNLA Ta’ang National Liberation Army UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime UWSA United Wa State Army (Wa Special Region) VHR Very High Resolution i Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 ii Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 Key findings In 2018, the area under opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar was estimated at 37,300 hectares. In comparison to 2017, the area under opium cultivation decreased, continuing the downward trend that started in 2014. 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Hectares 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Best estimate Upper and lower limits In the two main producer states, Shan and Kachin, the area under opium poppy cultivation decreased by 12 per cent or 4,900 hectares from 41,000 hectares in 2017 to 36,100 hectares in 2018.1 In addition, in Chin and Kayah States together, an estimated 1,200 hectares of opium poppy were cultivated. Reductions have taken place in practically all regions, including North, East and South Shan with decreases of 7%, 8% and 17% respectively, and Kachin State with 15%. Chin and Kayah States were not surveyed in 2017. Compared to the latest year available, 2015, total opium poppy cultivation in these two states increased by 26% or by 250 hectares in 2018. The average opium yield remained rather stable at 13.9 kilograms per hectare, with a 4% increase compared to 2017. Potential opium production was estimated at 520 metric tons in 2018. Shan State, which supplied nearly 90% of the total, remained the main producing region with 461 mt which is a decrease of 8% compared to last year. Eradication ‐as reported by the Government‐ showed a similar trend to opium poppy cultivation over the last nine years, with increases from 2010 to 2012‐2014 and a decrease since 2015. The eradication numbers for the 2018 growing season (from September 2017 to March 2018) were 26% lower than for the same period in 2017. Opiate seizures have increased since 2015. For the period January to June 2018, almost 3,000 kilograms of seized opiates were reported, already surpassing the total reported seizures for 2017. With an estimated gross value ranging from 1.1 to 2.3 billion USD, the illegal opiate market in Myanmar represented a notable share of the country’s economy in 2018 (1.5 – 3.3 % of 2017 GDP). Of this total, about 5%, corresponding to an estimated amount of 62 to 103 million USD, or 0.4 % of the agricultural sector’s value, was earned by farmers cultivating opium. 1 The exact percentage change from 2017 to 2018 cannot be estimated at the national level, because Chin and Kayah states were not assessed in 2017. iii Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 The largest share of the 2018 opiate market value was income generated by heroin manufacturing and trafficking. Domestic heroin consumption of 7.6 tons was valued at 238 ‐ 401 million USD, whereas the export of heroin (20 ‐ 45 tons) was worth between 782 and 1,798 million USD Between 2015 and 2018, farm‐gate prices2 of fresh and dry opium decreased by 34 and 45 %, respectively. Decreasing prices together with a reduced supply of opium can be an indication of a decreased demand for opiates from Myanmar in the country and the region. 2Average farm‐gate prices. Average is weighted based on production. Prices are inflation adjusted for the analysis of trends. iv Myanmar Opium Survey 2018 Fact Sheet Change Year 2017 Year 2018 2017‐2018 Total opium poppy cultivation (ha)3, 4 41,000 37,300 NA5 (30,200 to 51,900) (29,700 to 47,200) Opium poppy cultivation 37,100 32,700 ‐12% in Shan State (ha) (26,500 to 47,600) (25,300 to 42,400) Opium poppy cultivation 3,900 3,400 ‐13% in Kachin State (ha) (1,500 to 6,400) (1,800 to 5,800) Opium poppy cultivation 630 NA NA6 in Chin State (ha) (573 to 677) Opium poppy cultivation 570 NA NA7 in Kayah State (ha) (434 to 706) Total
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