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National Transport Master Plan

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National Transport Master Plan Ministry of Transport The Republic of the Union of Myanmar The Survey Program for the National Transport Development Plan in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report September 2014 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd. International Development Center of Japan EI ALMEC Corporation JR 14-192 Ministry of Transport The Republic of the Union of Myanmar The Survey Program for the National Transport Development Plan in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report September 2014 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd. International Development Center of Japan ALMEC Corporation Exchange rate used in this Report USD 1.00 = JPY 99.2 USD 1.00 = MMK 970.9 MMK 1.00 = JPY 0.102 (As of October, 2013) Project Location Map The Survey Program for the National Transport Development Plan in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar A grand design for the transport sector at the dawn of new and modern era of transport development in Myanmar Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1 MYT-Plan Goals and Objective ..................................................................................... 1 - 1 1.2 Structure of the Master Plan ....................................................................................... 1 - 2 1.3 Structure of the Report ................................................................................................ 1 - 3 Chapter 2. Socio-economic and Financial Frameworks 2.1 Demographic Framework ............................................................................................ 2 - 1 2.2 Macro Economic Framework ....................................................................................... 2 - 7 2.3 Public-Private Partnerships in Myanmar’s Transport Sector Development ................ 2 - 19 Chapter 3. Environmental Framework 3.1 Institutional Framework .............................................................................................. 3 - 1 3.2 Existing Status of the Environment in Myanmar ......................................................... 3 - 4 3.3 Climate Change ............................................................................................................ 3 - 19 3.4 Environmental Suitability Analysis............................................................................... 3 - 22 3.5 Rapid Environmental Evaluation of the proposed projects ......................................... 3 - 38 Chapter 4. National Spatial Development Framework 4.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 4 - 1 4.2 National Economic and Social Policy Framework ........................................................ 4 - 2 4.3 Institutional and Legislative Aspects ........................................................................... 4 - 4 4.4 Sector Plans, Policies and Programs ............................................................................ 4 - 12 4.5 National Spatial Development Framework ................................................................. 4 - 20 Chapter 5. Institutional Framework 5.1 Ministry of Transport ................................................................................................... 5 - 1 5.2 Ministry of Rail Transportation .................................................................................... 5 - 11 5.3 Ministry of Construction .............................................................................................. 5 - 13 5.4 Central Institute of Transport and Communications .................................................... 5 - 13 5.5 Ministry of Construction ............................................................................................... 5 - 14 Chapter 6. ASEAN Cooperation Frameworks 6.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 6 - 1 6.2 Transport Agreement and Action Plan ........................................................................ 6 - 1 Chapter 7. Overview of the Transport Sector 7.1 Road Infrastructure Sector .......................................................................................... 7 - 1 7.2 Road Transport Sector ................................................................................................. 7 - 14 7.3 Railway Sector.............................................................................................................. 7 - 24 7.4 Inland Waterway Sector .............................................................................................. 7 - 35 7.5 Maritime Sector ........................................................................................................... 7 - 44 7.6 Civil Aviation Sector ..................................................................................................... 7 - 52 Chapter 8. Demand Forecast 8.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 8 - 1 8.2 Existing Traffic Demand ............................................................................................... 8 - 2 8.3 Transport Modeling ..................................................................................................... 8 - 4 8.4 Demand Forecast ......................................................................................................... 8 - 22 8.5 International Air Passenger Forecast .......................................................................... 8 - 32 8.6 International Cargo Movement ................................................................................... 8 - 35 Chapter 9. Transport Vision, Policies and Strategies, and Actions 9.1 Existing Sub-sector Policy Statements ......................................................................... 9 - 1 9.2 Transport Sector Initial Assessment by ADB ................................................................ 9 - 4 9.3 Key areas of consideration and corresponding issues ................................................. 9 - 7 9.4 Overall Policy Priorities ................................................................................................ 9 - 8 9.5 Transport Sector Vision (MYT-Plan draft) .................................................................... 9 - 9 9.6 Updated Transport Policies (MYT-Plan draft) .............................................................. 9 - 10 9.7 MYT-Plan Cross-sector Strategic Objectives, and corresponding Strategies and Actions (Draft) ........................................................................................................................... 9 - 12 9.8 MYT-Plan Transport Sub-sector Vision, Strategic Objectives, and corresponding Strategies and Action .................................................................................................................... 9 - 17 Chapter 10. Corridor-based Transport Infrastructure Development Plan 10.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 10 - 1 10.2 Background .................................................................................................................. 10 - 1 10.3 Development Corridors in Myanmar ........................................................................... 10 - 2 10.4 Planning Method Statement ....................................................................................... 10 - 4 10.5 Corridor Analysis .......................................................................................................... 10 - 5 10.6 Corridor-based Transport Infrastructure Development Policy .................................... 10 -11 10.7 Proposed Project Components .................................................................................... 10 -14 Chapter 11. Implementation Plan 11.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11 - 1 11.2 Implementation Plan ................................................................................................... 11 - 1 11.3 Overall Capital Investment .......................................................................................... 11 - 2 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Population by Gender and Age Bracket .................................................................. 2-2 Table 2.2 Survival Rate by Gender and Age Bracket .............................................................. 2-3 Table 2.3 Population Growth Rates for the Over-65 Age Bracket .......................................... 2-3 Table 2.4 Changes of Child Woman Ratio and Total Fertility Ratio since 1990 ...................... 2-4 Table 2.5: Forecast Population Growth Rates for the Over-65 Age Bracket, 2010-2040 ....... 2-4 Table 2.6 Changes of Child Woman Ratio and Total Fertility Ratio in the future .................. 2-5 Table 2.7 Population Projection by Gender and Age Group (Middle Scenario) ..................... 2-6 Table 2.8 Population Forecast by Regions and States from 2012 to 2040 ............................. 2-7 Table 2.9 Comparison of Coverage Area Among AEC, EU, EPA and FTA ................................ 2-8 Table 2.10 Annual GDP Growth Scenarios ........................................................................... 2-11 Table 2.11 Annual Myanmar’s ICOR from 2008 to 2010 ...................................................... 2-12
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