russia-direct.org

|#24 | November 2015

By GEORGE SAFONOV WOODROW W. CLARK II DIMITRI ELKIN IVAN KAPITONOV

available for subscribers only $4.99 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The report examines the changes happening Other states also recognize the problem but in Russia since the issue of global warming their positions differ in the way the issue was introduced on the global agenda. Only should be solved. India, China, the EU, Japan, today, after the planet has experienced a the U.S. and Brazil, all of which are important variety of catastrophic natural disasters, have players analyzed in the report, find it hard to world leaders and decision makers grown reach common ground in reaching a globally­ more aware of the urgency of the problem. In binding agreement. Whether this will be Russia, where the climate changes have been done ultimately depends on the outcome of more significant than globally on average, the the Paris climate change conference. government has increased its objectives in The report also considers the state of the reducing greenhouse gas emissions and put Russian climate change movement from forward a number of initiatives and green po­ the experience of WWF activities in Russia, licy measures to achieve more sustainability provides an overview of the development in the long term. Russia’s target for green­ of the Russian green energy sector with house gas emissions in 2030 is set at 70-75 specific success stories and analyzes the percent of the base level of 1990, according to prospects of renewable energy development the new action plan adopted by the Kremlin. in ­different regions of the country.

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AUTHORS

GEORGE SAFONOV, Ph.D., is the Director of the Center for Environmental and Natural Resource Economics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Safonov is a member of the Russian official delegation and observer organizations at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol Conferences and Meetings since 1999. | Page 4

WOODROW W. CLARK II, Ph.D., is a qualitative economist, professor as well as an entrepreneur and former advisor to California Governor Gray Davis. During the 1990s he was Manager of Strategic Planning for Technology Transfer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the University of California and the U.S. Department of Energy. He served as one of the contributing scientists to the work of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). | Page 9

DIMITRI ELKIN is a Russian-American businessman and writer. He holds an undergraduate degree in mathematics from the Lomonosov Moscow State University and an M.B.A. from Harvard University. He is a partner with Twelve Seas Capital, an international private equity fund, whose investments include a renewable energy company with assets in the UK, Scandinavia and Italy. | Page 9

IVAN KAPITONOV is the Deputy Head of the Department of State Regulation of the Economy and a Lecturer of Public Finance at the International Institute of Public Service and Administration of the Russian Academy of the National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation. Since 2007, he has been a senior fellow at the Energy Policy Sector of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. | Page 18

2 russia-direct.org FROM The changing THE EDITOR climate for Russian environmental policy

Today, climate change issues are gaining momentum among major countries, including Russia, which are against the backdrop of this year’s landmark U.N. confe- responsible for the majority of pollution. Moreover, they rence COP21 in Paris. The global community has every suggest how President Vladimir Putin could use the cli- reason to be optimistic that world leaders will agree on a mate change agenda to improve Russia’s image abroad. new climate change agreement by the end of this year. Finally, Ivan Kapitonov of the Institute of Economics of For Russia, which is preoccupied with its foreign policy the Russian Academy of Sciences takes a closer look at and economic problems, climate change issues never- a “green energy revolution” in Russia and analyzes the theless are coming to the forefront, as warming in the potential of the most interesting projects in renewable country occurs at a considerably higher rate than globally energy in the country. on average. The report also contains our interview with Alexey In this RD report, we take a look at Russia’s environmen- Kokorin, head of WWF Russia’s climate and energy pro- tal initiatives and compare them with those of other gram, who provides insight into how non-governmental countries. First, George Safonov of the National Research organizations are changing public perception with regard University Higher School of Economics analyzes how the to climate change. climate has changed in Russia and what Moscow’s cur- I hope you will enjoy this report. Please do not hesitate rent climate policies are. He comes to a conclusion that to reach me directly at [email protected] based on four factors, Russia has an enormous potential with your questions or suggestions.

for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the long-term. Ekaterina Zabrovskaya, Editor-in-Chief Next, Woodrow W. Clark II and Dimitri Elkin explain why they are optimistic about the Paris summit by reviewing what has changed in the positions on climate change

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Eugene Abov Chairman, Russia Direct, Deputy Director General, Rossiyskaya Gazeta Publishing House, Publisher, Russia Beyond The Headlines Julia Golikova Director for Development, Russia Direct, Deputy Publisher, Commercial and Foreign Partnership Director, Russia Beyond The Headlines Ekaterina Zabrovskaya Editor-in-Chief Pavel Koshkin Executive Editor Dominic Basulto Executive Editor, U.S. Ksenia Zubacheva Managing Editor Alexey Khlebnikov Senior Editor Elena Potapova Head of Video and Mobile Yaroslav Cohen Digital Innovations Producer Pavel Inzhelevskiy Video Producer Olga Fastova Associate Publisher, Sales, Marketing, Events Maria Shashaeva Deputy Publisher, Circulation, Digital Strategy and Operations Olga Ivanova Senior Advisor Alexander Dmitrienko Production and Foreign Partnerships Manager Ekaterina Peregudova Production Finance Manager Ludmila Burenkova Accounts Payable Manager Antonina Steshina Director of Human Resources Antonina Osipova Marketing Director Helen Borisenko Research Manager Anna Sergeeva Account Manager, NY Olga Guitchounts Account Manager, DC Maria Kleymenova Show and PR Director Andrey Shimarskiy Art Director Andrey Zaitsev Associate Art Director Alexander Kislov Designer Nikolay Korolev Photo Editor Ilya Ovcharenko Production Designer

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3 RUSSIA-DIRECT.ORG reuters Climate change in Russia: How real is the problem? The climate warming lobal climate change is a major challenge to the world community in the 21st century. According to scientists, the climate changes are mainly rate in Russia is Gcaused by an unprecedented growth in the concentration of greenhouse considerably higher gases (primarily, CO2) in the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an association of over than the world two thousand leading climate experts including those from Russia, has provided average. What is data indicating that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has reached 400 parts per million (ppm) in 2015, which is well above its maximum levels for the Moscow doing to past 10,000 years. The concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide and other gases address the issue? producing a greater greenhouse effect (hundreds and thousands times that of CO2) have been growing swiftly as well. Undoubtedly, the climate system is also influenced by other factors such as so- George Safonov lar activity, terrestrial albedo, atmospheric pollution by suspended solids (from volcanic eruptions, pollutant emissions by industrial and power supply sources, etc.), and others. However, according to the IPCC, the emission of greenhouse gases due to the economic activity of man and the annihilation of woodlands have contributed the most to the growth of greenhouse gases concentration over the past 50-100 years, a period when carbon fuel was put to active use. As indicated by observations, the global mean temperature has risen by 0.8°C since 1850. Meanwhile, the warming rate in the Northern hemisphere is twice its global average value, reaching 0.33°C per decade over the period of 1976-2012.

4 russia-direct.org Along with the growth of the global mean tempera- The flood in the Amur basin, droughts of 2010 and 2012 ture, some other extremely disturbing, dangerous climate (which, according to some estimates, caused dam- hydrometeorological phenomena have occurred age of over 300 billion rubles or $4.5 billion), forest such as changes in the hydrological regimes (atmos- change is fires, and many others. pheric precipitation, river run-offs, global sea level, especially The climate change is especially dangerous to the ocean currents, etc.) and snow cover, melting of gla- regions that lie up in northern latitudes, in the Arctic. ciers, extreme phenomena (droughts, floods, heat dangerous The sea ice area is shrinking, with an absolute mini- and cold waves, etc.). to the mum of 3.37 million square kilometers (1.3 million The forecasts concerning further changes are also square miles) reached in Sept. 2012. The sea ice thick- very alarming. According to IPCC’s Fifth Assessment regions ness has also reduced in the Arctic basin, by over 40 Report, the mean global temperature is going to rise that lie percent since the 1980s, on average. in the 21st century under all conceivable scenarios. According to Roshydromet, during the current cen- By the most pessimistic estimate, the rise in the up in tury, Russia is going to remain a region where the global temperature may amount to 4.8°C as com- northern climate warming rate is considerably higher than pared to the period of 1986-2005. Also, other chang- the global mean warming rate. The absolute annual es should be expected such as shifting to the poles latitudes, temperature maximum as a characteristic of the ex- of the moderate latitudes’ jet currents, shifting by in the tremeness of the summertime air temperature may several degrees northwards of cyclone trajectories, be rising considerably, especially in the south of the growth of the global precipitation total, rise in the Arctic. European part of the country. global sea level by 0.26-0.55 meters, and continued At the same time, considerable softening of the ocean acidification. temperature regime during the cold time of the year is to be expected, primarily due to the rise of the low- What has changed in Russia? est temperature level in the North and, towards the end of the 21st century, in the South as well, where According to the Federal Service for Hydromete- winters will become snowless . orology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia (Roshydromet), climate changes occur in Russia at Prospects of greenhouse gas a faster rate than globally, on average. In 1976-2012, emission reduction, by country the growth of the mean annual temperature reached 0.43°C per decade, with especially noticeable anom- The problem of climate change calls for a solution on alies occurring in spring, summer, and autumn. A a global level. Acting alone, no country is capable of growth in precipitation has been observed (by up to 0.3 mm/month over the past 10 years), especially in Growth in CO2 concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere European Russia and Central Siberia. Against the background of rising global tempera- ture and the reduction of the sea ice area in the 400 CO2 levels over the last 10,000 years Northern hemisphere, considerable changes in the snow cover level have been observed throughout the territory of Russia. In most of Russia’s territory, Taylor Dome Ice Core a considerable increase in the annual maxima and Law Dome Ice Core minima of air temperature have been detected. Ex- 350 Mauna Loa, Hawaii tremely high temperatures are the most conspicu- ous, while the total number of extremely cold days has decreased. All over the country, a growth in the number of days with anomalously great precipita- tion has been recorded (especially in wintertime), 300 while in some areas, the number of days without (ppm) CO2 Atmospheric precipitation has grown. In 1996-2012, dangerous hydrometeorological oc- repkina currences in Russia have grown in number, including Years

na 250 those causing considerable damage­ to the country’s yo

al -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 economy and population. Examples are the 2013 source: IPCC

5 russia-direct.org The number of dangerous hydrometeorological occurrences in Russia (1996-2012) for greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2030. For 500 467 469 example: 436 •United States, Australia: 26-28 percent from 2005 level; 400 387 385 •EU, Norway: 40 percent from 1990 level; 361 349 •Canada: 30 percent from 2005 level; 322 310 •Japan: 26 percent from 2013 level; 300 285 •Brazil: 47 percent from 2005 level; 258 •China: 60-65 percent from 2005 level; 220 •India: 33-35 percent (CO2 emissions per unit of 206 200 193 GDP) from 2005 level; 175 150 160 •Russia: 25-30 percent (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) from 1990 level. al

100 yo The targets set by many countries are quite ambi- na

repkina tious. This is primarily true of the developing coun- tries (including China, India, Brazil, and others) which previously refused to place themselves under any 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 obligations regarding emission reduction. The deve­ source: roshydromet loped countries are consistently displaying more and more active measures to reduce emissions and are influencing the processes which have already been ready to provide financial support to the developing triggered by anthropogenic factors. countries in the amount of $100 billion by 2020. In this respect, it is highly important that almost all At the same time, the countries’ obligations for the countries that have signed the U.N. Framework 2030 do not yet add up to ensuring a change in the Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) participate emissions trajectory towards the goal of “2 degrees in the coordination of the international effort in this Celsius.” An intensification of mineral fuel consump- direction. Russia is a party to the Convention and an tion is predicted, although a trend is evident towards active participant in the international processes that increased use of carbon-free power sources includ- are going on under the aegis of the U.N. FCCC. ing bio-fuel, hydropower, solar, wind, and other re- In Dec. 2015, at the 21st Conference of the FCCC newable sources. Parties, a new climate agreement is scheduled to be signed, which will enable co-ordination of the global Prospects of greenhouse gas measures aimed at reducing the greenhouse gases emissions reduction in Russia emission and increasing the absorption of CO2 by forests and ecosystems, as well as providing large- Russia’s target for 2030 is set at 70-75 percent of the scale aid to the developing and most vulnerable base level of 1990. Meanwhile, the current level of countries, and promote the dissemination of “climate greenhouse gas emissions is approximately 68 per- oriented” technologies. cent of the 1990 level, or 50 percent of the 1990 level, Russia is taking an active part in the international if the absorption of carbon dioxide by forests and the negotiations on the new agreement. Moscow shares agricultural sector is taken into account. the general objective of preventing an increase in the Russia has huge potential for reducing greenhouse average global temperature of more than 2°C. For gas emissions in the long term. The realization of this that, it is necessary to reduce the greenhouse gas potential may be determined by the following factors: emissions by at least 50 percent by 2050. •Technological base. Phasing out of obsolete The essential distinction of the new agreement equipment, replaced by more modern and efficient on climate from the Kyoto Protocol that expires in technologies. The wear and tear of fixed capital as- 2020 is that all the FCCC countries put forward their sets is 48 percent for the whole of Russia, 53 per- own national long-term targets for the reduction of cent in mining industries, 47 percent in manufactur- greenhouse gas emissions. ing industries, and 57 percent in communication and 148 countries have already presented their targets transport.

6 russia-direct.org •Equipment 25 years or older: 90 percent of equip- Predictions of the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions up to ment in power plants, 70 percent in boiler-houses, 70 2050 (1990 = 100%) percent in power networks, and 66 percent in heat networks is 25 years or older. By 2030, capital assets 30-40 years of age will inevitably be replaced by new, 125 more efficient equipment throughout the economy, 100 including the power industry and manufacturing in- dustries. The question is: What technologies will be 75 used for that — will they be carbon-free or still based on mineral energy resources? 50 •Cost reduction in low-carbon technologies for power industry, manufacturing industry, urban en- 25 gineering, and transport. After 2030, carbon-free po­wer generation capacities are expected to be put 0 into operation at an increasing rate (from 700 to 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1,500 GW), with the technology of carbon capture “Business as usual” (BAU) scenario and sto­rage (CCS) for thermoelectric power plants on coal or gas becoming commercially attractive, Scenario when active measures are taken and the cost reduction for renewable power sources Scenario of low-carbon development growth (solar and wind power stations, electric cars, etc.) source: NRU HSE reaching 77 percent. The “squeezing out” of the global markets of products with large “carbon foot- Trend in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion print” (metals, ­energy resources, basic materials, etc.) could become a factor of competition for the markets. GtCO 35 •High potential of carbon-free energy resources and technologies. Already today, technologies are 30 available for using organic waste to produce second­ 25 generation bio-fuel, using solar power or wind power 20 to energy efficiency of up to 50 percent, or using low-potential heat (heat pumps) and geo-thermal 15 energy. There are projects of building tidal power sta- 10 tions (with a potential of over 100 GW of set capac- 5 ity), as well as producing new materials possessing unique properties regarding durability, electrocon- 0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2011 ductivity, etc. source: international energy agency (IEA) According to an estimate by the Krzhizhanovsky Power Engineering institute (ENIN), the use of eco- Prediction of global demand for power given the countries’ nomic potential of renewable power sources alone proclaimed targets set by the new climate agreement would allow to substitute about 30 percent of all the primary power produced in Russia. Today, the share Million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) 18,000 30% Other renewables* of those sources in the country’s power balance is 0.1 Bioenergy percent. 15,000 25% Hydro Research teams at the National Research University 12,000 20% Nuclear ­Higher School of Economics (NRU HSE), the Rus- Gas sian Presidential Academy of National Economy and 9,000 15% Oil Public Administration (RANEPA), the Center for Ef- 6,000 10% Coal ficient Use of Energy (CENEF) and other institutions Share of low- have developed scenarios and predictions of green- (3) 3,000 5% carbon sources (right axis) house gas emissions by 2050. Under the “business as repkina

usual” (BAU) scenario (with gradual replacement of na 2000 2005 2010 2013 2020 2025 2030 yo old technologies for newer ones, but without special al *Other renewables include wind, solar (photovoltaic and concentrating solar power), geothermal, and marine.

source: international energy agency (IEA)

7 russia-direct.org measures), the emissions may stabilize at a level of about 80 percent of that of 1990 by 2030, and then start reducing slightly. With a more active climate policy, the emissions trajectory may change from an insignificant growth through 2020 to a decline to a level of 50 percent in 2050. Given more resolute measures and large- scale introduction of de-carbonization technologies in electrical power industry, manufacturing industry and transport, Russia can pursue more ambitious goals such as emissions reduction to 18-20 percent of the level of 1990 by 2050.

What is Russia’s climate policy based on?

In Russia, the climate policy is based on a few strate- gic documents which are: •The Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (2009), which sets general goals and objectives of the country’s climate policy. media

•The Russian President’s Decree “On the reduction n o

of greenhouse gas emissions” (2013). The goals are le / ri o to reduce the emissions by 25 percent of the level of l gi 1990 by 2020 and establish a system of regulating greenhouse gas emissions. With a gas emissions for the base year and for the past 5-7 •The Russian government action plan for the im- years, to develop predictions of greenhouse gas plementation of the Decree (2014): Setting up of a more emissions up to 2020, 2030, and 2050, and to put system of monitoring, reporting and verification at active together a package of measures, programs, and industrial enterprises; estimation of the potential projects that are aimed at reducing the greenhouse for emissions reduction in industries and regions for climate gas emissions and can receive support in prospect. the period of up to 2030 and beyond; stimulation of policy, the Industry ministries and agencies are commissioned emissions reduction projects; development of a con- to prepare estimates of the emissions reduction po- cept and an action plan for the reduction of green- emissions tential by industry and by sector of economy. house gas emissions; and analysis of foreign coun- trajectory The development of emissions regulation concept tries’ experience and opportunities for international scheduled for 2017-2018 is to become an important co-operation. may milestone in the creation of a system of managing the The development of the system of the regulation of decline to greenhouse gas emissions in Russia. Obviously, such greenhouse gas emissions includes, as an important a system must not only reflect the opportunities for element, the setting-up of a system of monitoring, a level of low-carbon development of the country’s economy, reporting, and verification of data on greenhouse 50 percent but also take account of the international trends in gas emissions at the level of the sources, that is, en- carbon-free technologies, competition on the global terprises. To this end, the government has adopted in 2015. markets and the task of harmonization of carbon- a concept of monitoring which stipulates that, as of related requirements within the Eurasian Economic 2016, annual greenhouse gas emissions reports must Union, BRICS, and other international groupings. be submitted by all industrial, power, and transport The objectives concerned with solving the climate companies that have CO2-equivalent emissions of change problem are very wide-ranging and new over 150 thousand tons, and, as of 2017, by all com- to humanity. Russia and the world face an unprec- panies with CO2-equivalent emissions of over 50 edented challenge. While practically every country thousand tons. has some opportunities for low-carbon, “climate The government recommends every federal sub- friendly” development, Russia has a unique, huge ject of Russia to get an inventory of the greenhouse potential in this area.

8 russia-direct.org AP A historic climate change breakthrough could be coming soon What is at stake at the ust like the issue of global terrorism, the issue of global climate global climate summit change cannot be solved by one country alone, be it France, the JUK, China, Germany, Egypt, Israel, Brazil, the U.S. or Russia. in Paris and how The terror attacks in Paris on Nov. 13, 2015 did not succeed in derailing a landmark conference on climate change. Officially known as the 21st ses- Russia could surprise sion of the Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Frame- the world again. work Convention on Climate Change (U.N. FCCC), or COP21, the Paris U.N. Conference will bring together more than 100 heads of state and engage Woodrow Clark and over 40,000 attendees. It will kick off on Nov. 30 and last until Dec. 11. The Dimitri Elkin President of the U.S., the President of Russia and the Premier of China have confirmed attendance, amid tightened security and high expecta- tions for a breakthrough. The COP21 summit could be the place and the moment when the in- ternational community agrees on a new global framework for solutions to climate change that would keep the warming of the Earth’s average surface temperature at less than 2 degrees Celsius. The 2 degrees is a benchmark above which the global warming would cause disastrous con- sequences. A highly researched conclusion that humans are responsible for climate change earned the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Nobel Peace Prize as a group in 2007.

9 russia-direct.org Why expectations are so high Carbon Crunch There is extraordinary pressure to make the Paris talks a success in terms of identifying the solutions to climate change, ranging from carbon and green- Countries responsible for about three-fifths of global greenhouse gas house gas reductions to solutions for smart green emissions have submitted plans to curb them after 2020, but others haven’t. A list of countries and their percentage of global emissions in 2012: sustainable cities to national plans and investments of governments around the world. The international Plan submitted Plan not submitted climate talks are clouded by the failed 2009 Copen- India 6% hagen summit, which was organized with much fan- fare, but produced few results. Brazil 6% Indonesia 1% The cause of the failure, in the assessment of French China 23% Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius, was the lack S.Africa 1% of detailed technical preparation and national fol- Other Russia 5% countries low through by all governments around the world. Japan 3% US 12% 25% The Copenhagen summit was based on the notion Canada 2% that the leaders of nations could come to a consen- S.Korea 1% sus through a high level of interpersonal interaction. Australia 1% EU 9% repkina Mexico 1%

But the climate change issue was too complex and na

yo Other multi-faceted to yield to a gentlemanly gathering of al countries 4% a handful of world leaders. source: The wall street journal Nor had developed nations experienced the full impact of climate change on their cities and people vigorous review process to substantiate the data pre- at that time. Now half a decade later, every deve­ sented. The initially ambitious language about the loped and developing nation has experienced the $100 billion Green Fund has been toned down and economic impact, loss of lives and devastation from the specific dollar amount is no longer on the table. increased climate problems. In short, the Paris U.N. Summit will need to set goals The lessons of Copenhagen were learned, and the that define plans and funding for stopping climate Paris summit will benefit from the intense prepara- change through definitions and meanings, which all tion since then. Negotiations for the agreements that nations can agree upon and be evaluated for results. may be reached in Paris have been going on for more The Paris summit should benefit from a growing than two years. Perhaps, more importantly, all Paris sense of urgency. At the Copenhagen summit, much summit national participants are required to submit of the time was spent on the debate over whether individual national targets for capping greenhouse global warming is, in fact, occurring, and whether it is gas emissions. Of the nearly 200 countries partici- caused by human activity. Now, the serious question- pating, the majority have already submitted their na- ing about global warming has ceased, due to global tional “commitment to the future,” including China, scientific evidence that climate change is real. The the U.S., and Russia. The main notable laggard is debate is focused on how to achieve the common also read ­India, which has its own reasons for reluctance. global goals. The only notable exception is the U.S., One recent reason for optimism is the break- where global warming has become a political issue Russia Direct through bilateral agreement achieved between the between Republicans and Democrats, due in part to Report “Russian two ­largest polluters, the U.S. and China, over the the next national presidential election in Nov. 2016. Energy Sector: past year, which demonstrated that both countries Many world leaders have expressed their high hopes Beyond Sanctions.” are committed to climate change. It is indeed his- for the Paris summit. There is definitely an element of Download at www. toric because the previous 1997 Kyoto protocol was a “now or never” mentality that puts increased pres- russia-direct.org/ archive. largely weakened because neither the U.S. nor China sure on success. Public concern and emotions have signed it. And both nations continued that reluc- been only heightened, for example, by the recent tance to collaborate even at the Copenhagen U.N. example of extreme drought in California and other Conference in 2009. places. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon went so There are certainly plenty of difficult issues that re- far as to declare that there is no Plan B to a global main subject to intense negotiations. Some countries climate agreement, because “there is no Planet B.” question the 2-degree objective, while others resist There is a sense that the changing climate could the idea of a legally binding agreement, or even a not only impact many countries, but also have a pro-

10 russia-direct.org Around 3 million people die every year as a result of environmental pollution. This is more than the number of“ people that die in wars. This question requires broad discussion and urgent attention.

Sergej Zilitinkevich, professor at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, member of the Valdai Club found impact on the patterns of migration, water health of Himalayan glaciers now at risk of melting supply, and food safety, which would exacerbate the because of a warming climate. Yet India is also home political and social instability in areas like the Mid- to 30 percent of the world’s poor, and limiting India’s dle East and Africa. In the end, global climate change greenhouse gas emissions would disadvantage the and global terror are not separate issues to be han- 304 million Indians who still do not have access to dled at the local level. The Paris attacks in mid-Nov. electricity. More and more people from India and 2015 is a case in point, as is the Russian airplane ex- other nations with a large poor population are being plosion in Oct. 2015, which resulted in 200 people on recruited for extremist terrorist groups. Now tens of board who were killed. thousands of migrants have flooded into the EU and The negotiations are still ongoing. Rachel Kyte, other nations. What will be the result of that? Vice President and Special Envoy for Climate Change at the World Bank, noted that getting everyone to Country-by-country analysis agree is a bit like herding cats. Not surprising, for the country-specific issues are complex, difficult, and Let’s look at the main actors who collectively account often at odds with each other. Yet which nation, lo- for the majority of pollution — two-thirds of global cal community and innocent group of people will be emissions. They are — in addition to Russia — Bra- attacked next if global security and climate change zil, China, the European Union, India, Japan and the issues are not resolved? United States. India offers the starkest example of the climate Brazil. Brazil is tied with India as the world’s fourth quandary. India’s rivers, for example, depend on the largest polluter, responsible for 5 percent of green-

The greatest threats around the world, according to public opinion

Climate change ISIS Economic instability Russia Iran China repkina

na yo al

Note: In Malaysia and Venezuela, both climate change and economic instability are top concerns.

source: PEW Research center, 2015

11 russia-direct.org house gas (GHG) emissions. The main climate con- However, the EU also includes countries like Po- cern for Brazil is deforestation, and its efforts to land, which generates 80 percent of its electricity protect the rainforest reduced emissions from defor- from coal. Despite its diverse economic profile, the estation by 75 percent between 2004 and 2012. How- EU achieved a common climate framework that is le- ever, while deforestation has declined, GHG emis- gally binding to its members. In October 2014, the EU sions from agriculture and energy have increased leaders agreed upon a 2030 climate and energy po­ in the past decade, and this growth is expected to licy framework with a target of at least a 40 percent increase at a faster rate after 2020, especially in the reduction in domestic emissions by 2030 below the energy sector. 1990 levels. The EU’s reputation has taken a battering Still, the idea of a global climate pact seems to be on multiple fronts recently — from the euro zone cri- gaining momentum in Brazil. In June 2015, the U.S. sis to migrants — and robust European involvement and Brazil made a joint announcement on climate during the Paris summit is considered an opportunity change, pledging to bring online 20 percent of their for Europe to reassert its leadership. electricity from renewable energy — beyond hydro- India. With 6 percent of global GHG emissions, India power — by 2030. For Brazil, that would be a dou- faces a considerable threat from a changing climate. bling of non-hydro renewables. Brazil is also promis- 600 million Indians are threatened by the expected ing by 2030 to restore and reforest 12 million hectares disruption of the southwest monsoon that accounts of forest, inside and outside its Amazon region. At for 70 percent of India’s rainfall. But putting a cap the Paris summit, Brazil is expected to be one of the on India’s emissions is difficult, because the country leaders supporting a global climate agreement. needs economic development as much as it needs China. China is the biggest global polluter, ahead of protection from climate change. the U.S., with 23 percent of global pollution, for rea- India argues that much of the climate change to sons that are well known. Pulling hundreds of mil- date has been caused by carbon dioxide emissions lions of people out of poverty took countless tons of by rich countries. Therefore, Indian politicians have coal and other fossil fuels for buildings, transporta- little leeway to cut emissions, if it limits economic tion and the creation of a middle class, as the nation growth. India is unlikely to embrace emission reduc- “leap frogged” into the green industrial revolution. tion measures, unless they are integrated with India’s According to an analysis by Climatescope, from 2008 economic development objectives. For example, in to 2013, China’s annual energy consumption rose by June 2015 India’s Urban Development Ministry an- 51 percent, with almost 70 percent of electricity com- nounced the road map to develop 100 smart cities ing from the burning of dirty coal, which China is now ceasing as it turns to renewable energy sources. The pollution in China is overwhelming; in some of Concern among those Americans who say global warming its northern cities, the sun remains invisible for days is due to human activity because of the heavy smog. Air pollution in China has become a social, health and political problem, % saying global warming is a very serious problem putting the pressure on Beijing, which explains the Among those who say... recent Chinese agreement with the U.S., and its in- Earth is warming, mostly because of human 75 vestment in green energy. For China, as well as for In- 66 activity, such as burning fossil fuels dia and Brazil, climate change is now a top concern, which these countries are actively addressing. European Union. The EU is the third largest polluter with 9 percent of global emissions. At the same time Earth is warming, mostly because of natural 33 Europe has long been a champion of climate action, 30 patterns in earth’s environment with members of the EU, such as Denmark and other Nordic countries, leading the way in enacting envi- ronmentally friendly policies. Germany has also been a leader by establishing the “Feed-in-Tariff” which 11 No evidence earth is warming 8 repkina helped to fund renewable energy, especially solar na panels. As of 2015, Germany had started a hydrogen yo al highway for cars using hydrogen and fuel cells in- stead of oil and natural gas for vehicle energy power. 2006 2009 2012 2015

source: PEW Research center, 2014

12 russia-direct.org AP that would make ecological consideration a key ele- and its focus will be less on the quantity of green- A third of ment of urban design. India in particular is resisting house gas reduction, but rather on environmentally Americans the proposal for a review mechanism, making New friendly industrial technologies developed in Japan Delhi one of the potential spoilers of the Paris sum- (e.g., iron and steel mills) that can be applied around believe mit. the world. that global Japan. Historically, Japan received good marks on United States. The United States is the second climate change. Its energy efficiency is already high. largest greenhouse gas emitter, with 12 percent of warming is Despite the fact that its economy is half the size of greenhouse gas pollution. The U.S. possesses ample unrelated China’s, Japan is responsible for only 3 percent of domestic coal, shale gas and shale oil reserves. In- global GHG emissions, and Japan’s energy consump- creased use of na­tural gas replacing coal in the power to human tion per unit of GDP is currently about 30 percent sector resulted in declining levels of energy-related acti­vity. lower than the average of other G7 nations, making carbon dioxide emissions from 2009 onwards. it one of the top performers globally. America’s main obstacle to embracing a global Part of Japan’s GHG reductions came from its nine climate change agreement is political. According to nuclear power plants that the U.S. “convinced” Japan the Pew Research Center, a third of Americans be- it needed as an island nation with limited “energy re- lieve that global warming is unrelated to human acti­ sources” in the 1970s. Then and now, especially after vity, and the international efforts to limit emissions the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japanese priori- amount to harmful government interference with the ties have shifted. Japan decided to indefinitely close free market enterprise, or even a threat to America’s all of its nuclear power plants, eliminating an energy democratic sovereignty. National and even State source that once produced a third of the country’s American legislatures are controlled by the Repub- power. The hole has been filled by oil, coal and natu- licans, which means that a globally binding United ral gas. As a result, Japan’s performance on emis- Nations climate deal would not pass the Senate. sions has been poor, and the country was accused Despite considerable resistance from the Republi- of “backsliding.” cans, President Barack Obama has used his execu- There is also a downside to Japan’s high-energy tive powers to develop new environmental regulation efficiency: The cost of incremental reduction is very aimed at reducing emission. Most recently, in early high. The biggest issue for Japan is whether there will November 2015, Obama blocked the Keystone pipe- be public and hence government support in opening line that would move shale oil in Canada across the some of the nuclear power plants. In the meantime, border into the U.S., which was a major victory for Japan’s emissions improvement will remain modest, American environmentalists.

13 russia-direct.org Where does Russia fit in this picture? official comment Russia is often grouped with other countries that are high oil producers, like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, whose economies rely on oil production. Russia’s domestic goal to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 75 percent of Embassy of the the 1990 level by 2020 is modest. However, this low expectation creates Russian an opportunity to surprise the world on the positive side. Federation to According to Anna Korpoo, senior research fellow at the Fridtjof Nansen the U.S. Institute (FNI) in Oslo, Russia’s climate change is likely to be driven by the Grigory interests of economic modernization and waste reduction. Even if that is Zasypkin the case, there is nothing wrong with it. In the long term, an economic argument may be as powerful as a moral one. Global energy is a $6 trillion We are very positive about the market, and developing the green industry could be an unprecedented outcomes of the 2015 Paris investment and job creation opportunity. Climate Conference and expect The domestic support for climate change action in Russia is meaning- a new global agreement to be ful. According to the Pew Research Center, 33 percent of Russian citizens signed this year. The global regard climate change as a “very serious problem.” This is lower than Ger- community has no moral ­right many’s 55 percent and the U.S.’s 45 percent, but higher than Poland’s 19 to leave the issue unse­ttled – percent. Russia’s level of concern certainly varies by region and by indus- the time factor and the scale of try. For many industries, such as logging, which rely on robust winters, the problem require urgent and global warming presents a considerable economic threat. coordinated actions. Russia should not emulate the U.S. or Europe, but it should take advan- In our view, the new climate tage of its own resources, opportunities and human capital. Potential op- agreement should be based on portunities are numerous. For example, since hydrogen fuel cells will, very the U.N. Framework on Climate likely, eventually replace electric cars, Avtovaz, Russia’s largest car maker, Change, i.e. adhering to the could invest in the development of new hydrogen fuel cell technologies principle of common but dif- and infrastructures that would be ahead of what is offered by Tesla. ferentiated responsibilities and Russia should also take advantage of its stronger executive branch, and respective capabilities. We have the fact that Russia’s president, unlike the American counterpart, does nothing against the possible not have to face a rebellious polarized Senate. Why not take advantage differences among the commit- of the Kremlin’s “vertical of power” and promote green changes across all ments of developed and devel- regions and in every community? oping countries. Nevertheless, Finally, Russia should do a better job at promoting itself. There is noth- they all should have equal sta- ing wrong with working with various companies that provide interna- tus and be subject to account- tional rankings, or think tanks to assure that Russia’s viewpoint is bet- ability. ter heard. For example, the U.S.S.R. was in the forefront of technological Over the last 20 years our coun- developments in alternative energy. Very much like the Nordic countries try has reduced its total emis- and Germany, Russia has highly trained and educated scientists in roles sions in the energy sector by of government and industrial leadership. In America, in contrast, leaders roughly the same amount that mostly tend to be trained in law. Hence Russia, unlike the U.S., can move the EU has emitted over five ahead with new, safe, and environmentally friendly technologies that can years, and the U.S. over three. be created and proven in its academic institutions and then commercial- Long-term emission reductions ized in nearby “science parks.” That example is exactly what created Sili- are envisaged. Russia has set a con Valley over half a century ago, with nearby Stanford University and goal of cutting anthropogenic the University of California, Berkeley, along with other colleges, universi- emissions of GHG by 25 percent ties and research labs serving as “science parks” for the San Francisco of the 1990 level by 2020. Bay Area in the Green Industrial Revolution. Russia can develop similar Russia also supports collective models in a variety of places throughout the nation including Skolkovo fundraising efforts on allocating and the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute. financial resources for poorer If Putin decides to surprise the world once again by proposing some countries to combat climate bold climate control measures in Paris, it would certainly be in Russia’s change. As a result, in 2012, we economic interests, and it would be more favorable to Russia’s interna- made the decision to participate tional image now and into the future. in the U.N. Green Climate Fund.

14 russia-direct.org INTERVIEW Changing Russia’s attitude towards climate change

Aleksey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia, talks about the differences between public and government perceptions of climate change in Russia and explains why he is optimistic about the future of the climate movement in Russia.

ksenia zubacheva, Russia Direct the urgency of the question and the necessity to act as soon as possible. And here I mean first of all to Russia Direct: How would you describe the main reduce the amount of Russia’s greenhouse emissions directions of WWF activity in Russia in the area of that will lead to a positive effect only in 30-50 years. climate change? RD: Does the WWF carry out any public awareness Aleksey Kokorin: WWF Russia has two directions projects to promote more public understanding of for its climate change activities. The first one is to the issue of climate change? provide help to ecosystems in their adaptation to A.K.: Usually the WWF around the globe does not aleksey climate change. This is our main goal in biodiversity run such kind of educational and public awareness kokorin conservation. It includes elimination of additional programs, but climate change in Russia is an excep- Head of WWF stresses (for example, poaching or industrial devel- tion. We had to undertake such efforts. We try to ­Russia’s climate opment) and direct help in unfavorable conditions, encourage experts from Russian academia as well and energy program which is also essential now. as ecologists to be more active. Such efforts are since 2000. Prior to joining WWF, he The second direction is appealing as fast as possi- both successful and unsuccessful at the same time. worked as the lead- ble for greenhouse emissions reduction. We use our Fortunately, we do not see any political pressure or ing scientist at the information on its impact on nature and local people influence to spoil this effect. We have the “climate Russian Academy of to insist on greenhouse emissions reduction. deniers,” of course, but they are not present in the Sciences focusing RD: How do you assess the attitude of the Rus- government. on atmospheric physics, environ- sian public towards the problem of climate change? On the other hand, we sometimes see that the Rus- mental pollution and In general, do you think the public recognizes the sian media plays a negative role. Russian media and climate change. In problem? maybe all media around the globe like sensations and 1998-1999, Kokorin A.K.: I see a quite positive dynamic in understand- catastrophes. Therefore, they expose climate change was the climate ad- ing of the problem. In the beginning the public in as a catastrophe or a sensation in the absence of any visor to the Russian Minister of Ecology. Russia considered climate change as a sort of joke. impact. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But He is the author Then, they thought that it could be positive for Rus- such coverage influences the public perception of of more than 100 sia and, then, there were doubts that it’s anthropo- the problem as the people recognize the problem of scientific papers. genic. Now the majority of people recognize climate climate change as some kind of a thriller or do not change as a negative fact and many of them, but not see any problem at all. The non-professionalism in all, recognize that the significant part of this prob- the media is a real drawback. We organize seminars lem, the dominant cause is anthropogenic. and press talks for journalists to explain the com- On the other hand, they are far from recognizing plexity of the topic from the ­scientific point of view.

15 russia-direct.org ap

RD: Are there any other non-governmental organi- aimed to tackle the impact of the climate change on zations in Russia that have similar environmental the government level? goals? A.K.: The government, in my opinion, separates cli- A.K.: Unfortunately, there are no organizations nar- mate change from classic ecology, for instance, re- rowly focused on climate change only. As a whole, garding water, air and land pollution. I can’t say that there are a very limited number of ecological NGOs, the state initiatives are always effective. Recently, less than is required for such a large country like Rus- the government decided to reduce the land of the sia. The majority of them would like to focus on more Sochi National Park and simultaneously establish a urgent questions like classic ecology, nuclear waste, National Park in the Far East. The total net effect may air pollution, water pollution, clear cuts of forests, be not very bad, but it’s not an ideal situation still. It’s illegal logging, etc. Their attention turns to climate in classic ecology. change only rarely. Among ecological NGOs, I can In the area of climate change, the situation is also name the Russian Socio-Ecological Union, Bellona, complicated. On the one hand, the government Greenpeace, some local organizations, but not many. started to recognize the risks of climate change. At RD: So in general the movement is not developed? the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum it A.K.: We do not have a movement in the climate was officially announced by the Ministry of Natural area yet. We have a movement against air and water Resources and Environment of the Russian Federa- pollution, there is a real movement against nuclear tion that the estimated economic losses from climate waste, an opposition to illegal logging, illegal clear change by 2030 may amount to 1-2 percent of GDP cuts of forests, but we do not have a climate move- per year as a whole and 4-5 percent in the most vul- ment yet. nerable regions, which include the Arctic, Far East, RD: How would you assess the current policies mountain regions and southern agricultural regions that the authorities are carrying out with regard to as well. So it’s not small. the environment in Russia? Are there any initiatives The issue, however, is that the government needs

16 russia-direct.org to find a balance between short-term goals and fu- An incentive to recognize this ture risks and losses from climate change. The gov- problem in the U.S. was the ernment is too much focused on current problems while Russian business is focused on revenue and tragedy of Hurricane Katrina short-term plans for 5-10 years maximum. For real and flooding in New Orleans. activities in climate area the state authorities and businessmen need to have plans for 30-40 years. In Russia it was a terrible heat RD: What would you say the prospects are? How wave of 2010 in Moscow and is the situation most likely to develop in the coming years? Central Russia. A.K.: If speaking about the public perception, it will grow, it’s unavoidable. The people will see that climate change is a negative development that re- quires urgent action. But again the public awareness will not come on its own. An incentive to recognize this problem in the U.S. was the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina and flooding in New Orleans. In Russia it was a terrible heat wave of 2010 in Moscow and Central Russia. More tragedies will inevitably happen and the public will grow to be more aware of the problem. The government is a bit more pragmatic than the population. It understands that the climate change is a long-term process. It also knows that the short-

term time horizon of business planning is not due to eastnews

some misunderstanding but due to the atmosphere AFP/ for businesses in Russia, first of all, for small- and medium-sized companies. Large enterprises have large. The authorities and the forestry business start- more privileges while other companies that consti- ed to understand that it’s really necessary and it’s a tute a larger part of the economy have to face more positive development that we encourage. risks and uncertainty. Until the business environment RD: What are your expectations from the confer- in Russia gets better, there cannot be long term busi- 22% ence in Paris? ness planning and, hence, new technologies and A.K.: Working in the climate area for 20 years, emission reduction projects. percent of Russians I have to be optimistic. I understand that Paris is RD: What would you recommend that the authori- are very concerned just a pause in radical greenhouse emission reduc- about the global ties in Russia do to address the problem of climate climate change tion compensated by the massive financial support change? (according to Pew of more than a hundred of the most vulnerable and A.K.: It’s simple and well-known – improve the daily Research Center). poor countries in adaptation to climate change and, operational atmosphere for small and medium busi- partially, to low carbon development. It’s a compro- nesses in Russia. It’s necessary for energy efficiency, mise decision. renewable energy and any new technology. On the other hand, I see that a Paris agreement RD: Which way are we heading? Are there any pos- would wrap-up a positive trend for low carbon devel- itive signs of addressing the problem? opment. The signs of this are seen through the sus- A.K.: In the climate area, there is an understand- pension of coal projects and faster development of ing that we can’t change the business environment renewable energy. In application to Russia our appeal overnight – 5-10 years are required. The government at WWF is that Russia should give up a plan to ex- sometimes does its best, but it’s difficult. At the mo- tract more coal and sell it on the Asian market. Before ment they are not focused on reducing greenhouse Paris several years ago it looked like reality, but now gas emissions in the Russian economy, but rather on it’s under question. After Paris, it will be absolutely maintaining the ability of Russian forests to absorb out of reasonable risk, therefore the conference will CO2 – to keep the forests from commercial clear- really influence Russian energy and economy, forcing cuts. They speak about very large territories – at it to give up the worst decision. least 100 million hectares, so the effect may be very

17 russia-direct.org Is a green energy revolution underway in Russia?

Valery Sharifulin / tass

he “greening” of the natural resources industry has become main- Russia is moving stream worldwide, and particularly in Russia, over the last decade. more actively towards TThe pessimism that emerged in the 1980s and 1990s regarding the reduction of hydrocarbon reserves and a global shortage of oil pro­ the “green” industrial ducts, increases in fuel prices in the early 2000s and concerns about our processing of renewable carbon footprints and climate change have been reflected in a shift in development priorities of the global power industry towards a greater energy sources. What is emphasis on renewable energy sources (RES), the extraction of alterna- the evidence of that? tive kinds of fuel and accelerated growth in energy efficiency. By 2011, experts from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, classified re- newable power generation as a sector that was going through an adop- tive phase and possessed a medium competitive capacity. At the same time, the global demand for RES has shown steady growth. The RES share in the global power generation balance is expected to reach 35 percent by 2050. Programs of alternative energy production are being developed and implemented in a majority of developed countries. I van kapitonov The key advantages of RES are their inexhaustibility and environmental friendliness, which offer the possibility of rapid growth and optimistic predictions regarding the prospects of the “green” energy field. According to Woodrow W. Clark and Dimitri Elkin, with the ­dissemination

18 russia-direct.org of renewable energy sources, a “green” transforma- of generation totaled 225 GW (gigawatt) of which 1 tion of energy markets can be seen in EU countries, percent came from RES, including 0.6 percent from throughout Asia and in China. Moreover, while the biomass, 0.3 percent from small hydroelectric sta- U.S. is still in an initial phase of the lifecycle of RES tions and the remaining 0.1 percent from wind, solar development, Russia is moving more actively to- and geothermal power sources. At the same time, a wards the “green” industrial processing of renewable Russian government decree from May 28, 2013 stipu- energy sources. lates that the share of the “green” energy sources on At the same time, another specialist, Anatole Boute the wholesale market would amount to 2.5 percent, from Aberdeen University, points out that as of 2014 or about 6 GW, by 2020 (see Fig. 1). Russia still lacked an effective support system that Let’s consider the efficiency level of some renewa- could stimulate the large-scale use of clean energy, ble energy projects, which were previously approved which could lead to Russia’s missing the “green revo- by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia lution” train and falling far behind other BRIC coun- (in Dec. 2010) on the initiative of Sberbank that re- tries in developing ecologically clean technologies. ceived financing in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. To confirm or refute the experts’ opinions regarding 1. First up is a project of power generation using the “green revolution” in the Russian power industry, wood waste instead of coal in the city of Onega consider the dynamics of RES development in the (Arkhangelsk Region). country. The Energy Strategy of Russia for the pe- Finnish boiler plant equipment firm KPA Unicon riod up to 2030 (ES-2030) adopted in 2009, states supplied two Biograte boiler units to Russia with a that at the time that the ES-2030 was formulated “Russia is practically not present in the global mar- ket of energy from renewable sources.” At the same Fig.1.: Development targets for renewable energy generation in time, the ES-2030’s predictions about further deve­ Russia lopment were based on a hypothesis that suggested the lessening of the disproportions as determined by Wind Solar Small hydroelectric power stations the domineering share of hydrocarbon fuels in the 1600 By 2020 “green” power generation to amount to 5.871 GW, including: structure of fuel and energy consumption and the 1400 3.60 GW − Wind power 159 1.52 GW − Solar power stations low share of non-fuel energy sources, including nu- 1200 0.751 GW − Small hydroelectric 270 clear power stations and RES. 141 159 1000 power stations In line with the provisions of ES-2030 and an up- 270 270 800 124 dated plan, ES-2035, the Institute of Energy Strategy 600 250 1,000 has prepared a draft of the Concept of Energy Strat- 124 26 750 750 egy up to 2050, in which the period of 2036–2050 400 200 18 140 is designated as a “phase of innovation development 200 500 120 250 250 of the Russian economy, with a transition to a funda- 0 100 mentally new technological potential for the highly 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 source: rusnano efficient use of traditional energy resources and non- carbon sources of energy.” Power generation by source The existing system of supporting RES on the wholesale energy market has been in effect since 2013. Every year wind power stations, solar power 80% 70 stations and small hydroelectric stations are added 65 65 that can help in concluding power supply contracts 60% 55 that guarantee the repayment of investments by in- 50 45 stituting higher costs for consumers. Early in 2015, 40% 36 the government took measures to support RES on 20 the retail market as well; thus, power network com- 20% panies were obligated to purchase energy from RES, 0% but only in volumes that do not exceed 5 percent of (2) 2014 2015 2016- 2014- 2016- 2014- 2016- 2018- the network losses. 2020 2015 2020 2015 2017 2020 repkina According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data Small hydroelectric

ona Wind Solar from 2013, Russia’s installed capacity over all kinds y power stations al

source: rusnano

19 russia-direct.org Fig. 2: Renewable energy generation potential, by region

Solar energy Small hydropower Geothermal energy Biomass Wind energy

Northwest Central Federal District Federal District Volga Federal District Southem Urals Far East Federal District Federal District Federal District Siberian Federal District North Caucasus Federal District repkina

ona y al

source: rusnano heat capacity of 17 MW (megawatt) each and a back- to a forecast by the Arkhangelsk regional govern- up diesel boiler with a heat capacity of 9 MW. The ment, the annual biofuel production volume could total heat capacity of the boiler installation amounts reach 400,000 tons by 2020. to 43 MW. The 17 MW Biograte boilers burn wood The Arkhangelsk region is expected to replace al- waste, primarily wet bark, from the Onega sawmill most 50 percent of imported fuels with energy carri- (JSK Onezhsky LDK). ers from wood waste during the next five years. This A similar project has been implemented in the city will allow the region to cut its production expenses of Arkhangelsk. The project was aimed at modern- by approximately one third, increase its export po- izing the heating boilers currently in operation and tential and provide small businesses with jobs in installing heat and power plants using wood waste. “green energy.” In the context of the program to substitute import- 2. The project of producing energy from bio-waste ed fuel, a total of 43 boiler units have changed over to in the city of Bratsk (Irkutsk Region), is being imple- wood fuel and 10 new biofuel boiler units have been mented on an industrial site of a subsidiary of the built in the Arkhangelsk Region. “Green” ­energy is Ilim Group, the largest pulp and paper company in already being produced in the cities of Onega­ and Russia and is aimed at increasing the efficiency of Severoonezhsk; the heating infrastructure of the Vi- heat and power generation through the use of food nogradovsk district has changed over to bio-fuel; the waste. It is expected that the modernization of the construction of a boiler unit on wood waste is nearly local heat and power production will result in cutting completed in the town of Oktyabrsky in the south of greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.4 mil- the Arkhangelsk Region. lion tons over five years. The region is currently undergoing a dynamic tran- An important role in the project is played by a sition to the use of alternative fuels. In 2007-2015, new soda recovery boiler (SRB) designed to recover the share of alternative power generation increased chemicals, produce heat energy and utilize organic from 18 to 37 percent, and this figure is expected to compounds after producing cellulose. The equip- reach 44 percent by 2020. ment is provided by the Finnish company Metso, a In Pomorye (a White Sea coastal area), projects minerals processing and flow control technology producing alternative fuels totaling 250,000 tons and services supplier. The new SRB uses a techno­ per year have been realized and more projects are at logy that is capable not only of regenerating heat the planning stage that will help raise the production and ­energy from production waste, but is also able of wood pellets to 150,000 tons per year. According to transform it into electricity.

20 russia-direct.org In terms of energy efficiency and eco-friendliness, Despite the government’s introduction of the project is a real breakthrough for the timber in- a series of regulatory instruments that dustry, making it possible to use much less energy while increasing production considerably. By com- provide for the implementation of some parison, the previous equipment barely covered 18 elements of the strategy in the area of percent of the power consumed by its subsidiary, while with the new SRB put in operation, the com- renewable energetics, there are still a pany plans to bring this figure up to 50 percent. considerable number of omissions in the Among the most interesting and unique renewable energy projects in Russia, the following should be existing legal framework. noted: 1. A “smart railway station” in the city of Anapa (Krasnodar Territory): the building of a combined photoelectric system with a power capacity of 70 diesel-solar power installations with a capacity of 100 KW (kilowatt). KW in the village of Yailyu (Altai Republic). On the station rooftop, 560 solar modules have The project was completed as part of a state con- been deployed totaling a capacity of 70 KW. The tract sponsored by the Russian Ministry of Educa- transformation of solar energy is performed by four tion and Science aimed at setting up pilot projects Danfoss TLX Pro solar inverters, each with a capacity in solar energy and realized as part of the Federal of 15 KW. The inverter system has a remote control, Target Program called, “Research and Development which makes it possible to manage the operation of in Priority Directions of the Progress of the Scientific the solar station through the Internet. and Technological Complex in Russia for 2007-2013.” At the end of 2014, an energy-efficient system of The design and construction of these facilities heat-cold supply and hot water supply (ESHCS) was were conducted by the companies Hevel (the larg- installed, which made it completely independent of est integrated solar power company in Russia, a joint an external source of heat supply. The installation venture of the Renova Group and Rosnano, a joint- of the system was the final link in forming a unique, stock company aimed at commercializing develop- multi-function and unified resource-saving complex. ments in nanotechnology), Avelar Solar Technology Along with ESHCS, it includes solar modules and an (a subsidiary of Hevel), Solnechnaya Energiya (a so- intellectual hybrid lighting system (IHLS). According lar power company in Altai Republic) and the Ioffe to expert estimates, maximum economic benefits Physical-Technical Institute of the Russian Academy will be achieved as a result of IHLS. of Sciences. The total estimated economic benefit amounts A hybrid installation with a capacity of 100 KW was to about 1.5 million rubles. Importantly, savings will installed in the village of Yailyu in exchange for an continue even if additional expenses arise due to the obsolete diesel generator that was designed with increased consumption of electric power and diesel the intention of providing for the continuous power fuel during the peak cold periods. supply of the locality. This hybrid facility makes it The monitoring of electric power consumption for possible to cut annual diesel fuel consumption by 50 the lighting of the station demonstrates a positive percent. economic trend. As a result savings amounted to The installation mentioned above was designed in 122,000 rubles ($1,848 at Nov. 30, 2015 ruble-dollar Russia and combines the advantages of solar gener- exchange rate) in Aug. 2014, 171,000 rubles ($2,589) ation and diesel generation. Additionally, it employs in Nov. of the same year, and 192,000 rubles ($2,907) the latest scientific achievements in the area of pow- in Jan. 2015. er storage units and smart control systems, which The realization of the project was secured by com- provide for the most efficient distribution available mitments made by the European Bank for Recon- of the load among the photoelectric system, storage struction and Development (EBRD) and Russian units and diesel generators. Railways. The station complex is to be a model for As Robert Paltaller, the Deputy Chair of the Altai typical modern railway stations and serve as an ex- Republic regional government, noted, “the diesel-so- ample for how other Russian railway stations could lar power station, the first of its kind and size in Rus- be redesigned. sia, will make an efficient base for scientific research 2. The construction of one of the world’s first hybrid and educational programs in the area of solar energy,

21 russia-direct.org the development of which is of great importance for stations in the Republic of Crimea, which is effective- isolated ecosystems and inaccessible regions.” ly cut off from Russia’s unified power system due to Hybrid installations are capable of ensuring a sta- its geographical situation. ble power supply to remote municipal engineering According to a study by experts from the Higher facilities as well as social, industrial and agricultural School of Economics in Moscow, state support of infrastructure. The construction of power stations of RES development in Russia is a very important factor a similar composition and varying capacity (from 50 for the growth of the renewable power market in the KW to 1 MW) are planned in regions with a high level country. of diesel generation: the Republic of Yakutia, the Re- Note that a project called the “Roadmap for the public of Tyva, Zabaikalski Territory and in the Far Development of RES in the territory of Russia up to East region. Putting those stations in operation will 2035” has been developed by scientists. It is focused allow local budgets to cut diesel generation expens- on removing regulatory and institutional barriers to es considerably. the development of RES, forming a favorable climate 3. Use of the power of sea tides in Kamchatka (the for a widened application of RES, scientific and tech- Penzhin tidal power plant). nical progress and the production of RES compo- According to expert estimates the Penzhin Bay nents. (situated in the northeastern part of the Shelikhov At the same time, one could conclude that despite Gulf in the Sea of Okhotsk) can house two large the government’s introduction of a series of regula- tidal power plants with a maximum capacity of 135 tory instruments that provide for the implementa- GW. The cost of building Penzhin TPP-1 (Northern tion of some elements of the strategy in the area of Site) is estimated at $200 billion. The implementa- renewable energetics, there are still a considerable tion of the first project is scheduled for 2020-2035. number of omissions in the existing legal frame- The investments are slated to be repaid from the work. For development in this direction to continue sale of energy-intensive products such as hydrogen. at a pace consistent with the definition of a “green The construction of power transmission lines into revolution,” it is necessary to remove these barriers Khabarovsk Territory, Primorsky Territory and to Ja- as soon as possible and attract investors to the exist- pan and China are also possible. ing and prospective projects using renewable energy 4. The active exploitation of solar and wind power­ sources. Yelena Nagornykh / tass

22 russia-direct.org Further Twitter accounts books and articles reading for #climatechange on climate change in russia

@MinenergoGov The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. 1. Anatole Boute. “Green Energy in Russia: Window-dressing, Tweets in Russian. Protectionism or Genuine Decarbonisation?“ Russian International Affairs Council, March 13, 2014. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/ @COP21 News updates on the U.N. Climate Change Conference inner/?id_4=3286. 2015 in Paris. 2. Guri Bang, Arild Underdal, and Steinar Andersen (eds.), @UNFCCC Official Twitter account of the United Nations climate The Domestic Politics of Global Climate Change: Key Actors in change secretariat. International Climate Cooperation (New Horizons in Environmental @WWF World Wide Fund for Nature, international non- Politics Series). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, governmental organization working in the field of the biodiversity 2015. conservation, and the reduction of humanity’s footprint on the 3. Moisés Naím. “The Struggle of Our Time: Human Nature vs. environment. For news from Russia follow @wwfRU. Mother Nature”, The Atlantic, November 12, 2015. http://www. @MNR_Government Tweets in Russian from the Ministry of theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/11/climate-change- Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. carbon-paris/415599/. @Greenpeace Greenpeace, global environmental organization 4. Marianna Poberezhskaya. Communicating Climate Change aiming to change public attitudes and behavior, protect in Russia: State and Propaganda (BASEES/Routledge Series environment and promote peace. Read news from Greenpeace on Russian and East European Studies), Oxon and New York: Russia ­@greenpeaceru. Routledge, 2016. @ClimateHome Breaking climate change news and analysis from 5. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. “Climate change Climate Home. 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers.” http://ipcc.ch/ pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf. @IPCC_CH Tweets from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international body for the assessment 6. Alexey Kokorin, Anna Korppoo . “Russia’s Post-Kyoto Climate of climate change. Policy. Real Action or Merely Window-Dressing?” FNI Climate Policy Perspectives, FNI Oslo; Issue 10, May 2013. http://www.wwf. @IEA The International Energy Agency (IEA) facilitates the ru/resources/publ/book/eng/833. global energy dialogue, providing research, statistics and recommendations. 7. IFC Russia Renewable Energy Program. “Renewable Energy Policy in Russia: Waking the Green Giant”, 2011. http://www.ifc. @REWorld RenewableEnergyWorld.com tweets news and org/wps/wcm/connect/6239e00040c80fcdb865bd5d948a4a50/ information about the use of renewable energy around the world Green+Giant_Eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES. to assist decision makers in the field. 8. Bill McKibben. The End of Nature. New York: Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2006.

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