RAPPORT 1205 Svein Bråthen, Nigel Halpern and George Williams THE NORWEGIAN AIR TRANSPORT MARKET IN THE FUTURE Some possible trends and scenarios Svein Bråthen, Nigel Halpern and George Williams The Norwegian Air Transport Market in the Future Some possible trends and scenarios Rapport 1205 ISSN: 0806‐0789 ISBN: 978‐82‐7830‐169‐2 Møreforsking Molde AS 11. april 2012 Tittel The Norwegian Air Transport Market in the Future Forfatter(e) Svein Bråthen, Nigel Halpern and George Williams Rapport nr 1205 Prosjektnr. 2379 Prosjektnavn: Luftfartsmarkedet Prosjektleder Svein Bråthen Finansieringskilde Samferdselsdepartementet Rapporten kan bestilles fra: Høgskolen i Molde, biblioteket, Boks 2110, 6402 MOLDE: Tlf.: 71 21 41 61, Faks: 71 21 41 60, epost:
[email protected] – www.himolde.no Sider: 82 Pris: Kr 100,‐ ISSN 0806‐0789 ISBN 978‐82‐7830‐169‐2 Short Summary The purpose of this report has been to address the Norwegian air transport market today and in which direction it is likely to develop in the future. The main objective is to address the following questions: Is the long run sustainability of today’s well‐functioning network dependent on that existing airlines maintain their position in the Norwegian market? How can other airlines be expected to enter the Norwegian market if one or more of the incumbents reduces their level of service, be it from financial or other reasons? Will the structure of airlines or airline ownership have an influence on the level of service that is offered to the market? How will policy framework conditions and the current economic situation (influencing e.g. air transport demand and the level of competition in the airline industry) affect the supply of air transport services? The findings indicate that there are challenges in Norwegian air transport, connected to the weak financial state of affairs for SAS, Norwegian’s expansion plans with a unit fleet of larger aircraft and a network of 800 metre local airports with a limited number of competitors for the PSO routes and scarce aircraft availability.