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Hathway Cable & Datacom Companyname RESULT UPDATE HATHWAY CABLE & DATA COM ARPUs facing a downtrend India Equity Research| Media COMPANYNAME Hathway Cable & Datacom’s (Hathway) standalone Q1FY20 performance EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS continued to remain weak. While revenue growth remained muted, in Absolute Rating HOLD line with our expectation, EBITDA declined ~10% QoQ and EBITDA margin Rating Relative to Sector Performer contracted 340bps QoQ due to higher content cost and employee Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium expenses. Key highlights: (i) broadband ARPU declined ~2% INR650; (ii) Sector Relative to Market Overweight marginal rise in subscriber base to 0.84mn (30k QoQ net addition); and (iii) reported profit jumped to INR195mn on INR577mn other income. We are discontinuing our coverage on the stock. Our last rating was ‘HOLD’ MARKET DATA (R: HAWY.BO, B: HATH IN) with TP of INR33. CMP : INR 23 Target Price : INR 33 52-week range (INR) : 32 / 15 Pressure on ARPU and slow subscriber growth key concern Share in issue (mn) : 1,770.1 Hathway’s broadband revenue increased ~1% QoQ and ~3% YoY, largely due to the M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 40 / 590 ARPU downtrend – INR650 in Q1FY20 (INR662 in Q4FY19) and weak growth in net Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,543.3 subscriber addition—subscriber count stood at 0.84mn in Q1FY20 against 0.81mn in FY19. Falling data costs, rising smartphone usage and digital infrastructure are risks to SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) fixed broadband players. The broadband business reported PAT of INR195mn bolstered Current Q4FY19 Q3FY19 by other income of INR577mn. Post the open offer, Reliance holds ~72% stake in Promoters * 94.1 94.1 45.5 Hathway. Public shareholding fell from 54.5% to 5.91% after the open offer. MF's, FI's & BK’s 0.2 0.2 10.2 FII's 2.0 2.0 16.7 Others 3.7 3.7 27.6 NTO uplifts cable business performance * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) Subscription revenue for the cable business increased ~28% QoQ and ~38% YoY supported due to revision in pay TV channel bouquet pricing and pickup in subscription demand in light of the cricketing season. The collection efficiency for Q1FY20 stood at PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) EW Media ~100%. The seeded set top box figure stood at 6mn in Q1FY20. However, the Stock Nifty management has not disclosed the cable business ARPUs for Q1FY20 similar to their Index stance in the previous quarter. 1 month (7.1) (3.2) (3.1) 3 months (20.9) (0.1) (14.6) 12 months 28.4 5.8 (31.4) Outlook and valuation: Discontinuing coverage We are discontinuing coverage on the stock. Our last recommendation was ‘HOLD/SP’ with TP of INR33. At CMP, the stock is trading at 11.4x/10.4x FY18/19 EV/EBITDA. Financials (INR mn) Year to March Q1FY20 Q1FY19 % change Q4FY19 % change FY17 FY18 FY19 Abneesh Roy Revenues 1,338 1,298 3.1 1,324 1.0 13,444 15,346 15,583 +91 22 6620 3141 [email protected] EBITDA 383 469 (18.4) 423 (9.6) 1,972 3,356 3,088 Adjusted Profit 195 (26) NM 2,972 (93.4) (1,922) (1,025) 2,421 Prateek Barsagade +91 22 4063 5407 Adj. diluted EPS 0.1 (0.0) 1.7 (2.3) (1.2) 1.4 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 19.1 11.4 10.4 ROAE (%) (19.4) (12.2) 10.9 Note: Quarterly numbers are on standalone basis July 16, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q1FY20 Q1FY19 % change Q4FY19 % change FY17 FY18 FY19 Net revenues 1,338 1,298 3.1 1,324 1.0 13,444 15,346 15,583 Pay channel cost 394 263 50.0 319 23.5 11,472 11,990 12,495 Staff costs 149 120 24.4 131 13.9 4,717 5,694 6,099 Other operating expenses 413 447 (7.6) 451 (8.5) 932 770 829 Total expenditure 956 829 15.2 901 6.1 5,823 5,527 5,568 EBITDA 383 469 (18.4) 423 (9.6) 1,972 3,356 3,088 Depreciation 291 270 7.9 282 3.3 3,058 3,347 3,524 EBIT 91 199 (54.1) 141 (35.4) (1,085) 9 (436) Interest 373 242 53.9 256 45.9 1,108 1,528 2,208 Other income 577 17 3,273.1 410 40.8 238 97 609 Add: Exceptional items (845) (100.0) (7) (53) (4,296) Profit before tax 295 (26) (1,222.1) (550) (153.7) (1,962) (1,474) (6,331) Provision for taxes 100 - (2,677) (103.7) (3) (4) (4,390) Reported net profit 195 (26) (842.2) 2,127 (90.8) (1,929) (1,079) (1,876) Adjusted Profit 195 (26) (842.2) 2,972 (93.4) (1,922) (1,025) 2,421 Diluted shares (mn) 1,770 830 1,770 830 830 1,770 Adjusted Diluted EPS 0.1 - (448.2) 1.7 (93.4) (2) (1) 1.4 EV/EBITDA (x) - - - 19.1 11.4 10.4 As % of revenue Pay channel cost 29.5 20.2 24.1 35.1 37.1 39.1 Employee cost 11.1 9.2 9.9 6.9 5.0 5.3 Other operating expenses 30.9 34.4 34.1 43.3 36.0 35.7 EBITDA 28.6 36.1 32.0 14.7 21.9 19.8 Reported net profit 14.6 (2.0) 224.5 22.7 21.8 22.6 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Hathway Cable & Datacom Company Description Hathway is one the largest MSOs as well as one of the leading cable broadband service providers in India. Having entered the cable and entertainment business in 1995, the company offers three broad services—analog cable television, digital cable television and broadband internet. Its key promoter is the Rajan Raheja Group with a ~47.5% stake. While Hathway currently provides analog TV services in 140 cities, it is the largest digital cable TV provider in India. It is also the first cable TV service provider to offer broadband services in 19 cities. The company has bagged the ‘Best Cable TV Operator of the Year’ award by the Indian Television Awards eight times. Hathway has launched a channel Hathway Music (music channel). Investment Theme The compulsory digitisation mandate will lead to digitisation of cable TV services across India over the next few years. Converting its existing analog subscriber base on the digital platform will provide Hathway a huge opportunity to increase subscription revenue due to lower under-declaration and higher ARPU. Hathway’s digitisation progress is largely on track and the company is looking to build on to its broadband subscriber base as well. Any acceleration of the gross billing process in Phase 1 and Phase 2 would be a huge positive. Amongst MSOs, Hathway also enjoys the first mover advantage in the broadband business. Fixed broadband business could see a robust growth owing to Reliance’s acquisition of the entity. Key Risks • ARPU volatility in light of the transition to new tariff regime • Commercial terms with the LCOs in the new tariff regime • Mobile broadband growing faster than fixed broadband 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Financial Statements Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn) Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Macro Net revenues 11,369 13,444 15,346 15,583 GDP(Y-o-Y %) 7.9 7.1 6.7 7.1 Pay channel cost 4,336 4,717 5,694 6,099 Inflation (Avg) 4.9 4.5 3.6 3.7 Other operational expenses 2,037 2,565 2,639 2,533 Repo rate (exit rate) 6.8 6.3 6.0 6.3 Employee expenses 862 932 770 829 USD/INR (Avg) 65.5 67.1 64.5 70.0 SG&A and other costs 2,925 3,259 2,888 3,035 Company Total operating expenses 10,159 11,472 11,990 12,495 Int rate on debt (%) 14.6 18.2 23.6 31.6 EBITDA 1,209 1,972 3,356 3,088 Digital sub adds (mn) 1 1 - - Depreciation and amortisation 2,589 3,058 3,347 3,524 Digital subscribers (mn) 7 7 6 7 EBIT (1,379) (1,085) 9 (436) Broadband subscriber additions (mn) Less: Interest Expense 898 1,108 1,528 2,208 Broadband subs (mn) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 Add: Other income 182 238 97 609 Broadband ARPU (INR) 724.0 738.0 710.0 670.0 Add: Prior period items - - - - Placement rev growth (%) (46.2) (15.4) 9.0 2.0 Add: Exceptional items (174) (7) (53) (4,296) Broadband rev (% of rev) 28.4 36.9 35.5 34.0 Profit before tax (2,270) (1,962) (1,474) (6,331) Paychannelcost(% of rev) 38.1 35.1 37.1 39.1 Less: Provision for Tax (3) (3) (4) (4,390) Personnel cost(% of rev) 7.6 6.9 5.0 5.3 Less: Minority Interest - - - - Adm & othr exp(% of rev) 25.7 24.2 18.8 19.5 Add: Share of profit from associates (110) 29 391 66 Financial assumptions Debtor days 150 86 88 60 Reported Profit (2,377) (1,929) (1,079) (1,876) Inventory days 15 15 13 10 Less: Prior Period (Net of Tax) - - - - Payable days 239 137 108 126 Less: Exceptional Items (Net of Tax) (174) (7) (53) (4,296) Cash conversion cycle (73) (36) (8) (56) Adjusted Profit (2,203) (1,922) (1,025) 2,421 Dep.
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