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Hathway Cable & Datacom Companyname RESULT UPDATE HATHWAY CABLE & DATA COM Broadband ARPU disappoints, cable performance muted India Equity Research| Media COMPANYNAME Hathway Cable & Datacom’s (Hathway) Q4FY18 revenue was in line while EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS EBITDA was below estimates. Key highlights: (i) subscription grew ~3% Absolute Rating HOLD QoQ, aided by cable ARPU increase (up INR4 QoQ in Phase III; up INR3 Rating Relative to Sector Performer QoQ in Phase IV); (ii) net realisation in Phase I and II market remained Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium stagnant at INR108 and INR102 respectively; and iii) 5.1% QoQ growth in Sector Relative to Market Overweight broadband revenue aided by broadband additions. However the broadband ARPU saw a decline on QoQ basis (710 in Q4 vs 717 in Q3) due to intense competition. We believe the trend of declining broadband MARKET DATA (R: HAWY.BO, B: HATH IN) ARPU will continue going forward because of the intense competition CMP : INR 27 Target Price : INR 30 from Jio and other telecom players. Although the company is aiming for 52-week range (INR) : 49 / 26 cost rationalisation, we believe the benefit arising from it will be offset by Share in issue (mn) : 830.5 higher interest cost because of high debt levels. Increase in Phase III and M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 22 / 359 IV cable ARPU remains a key monitorable. Factoring the same, we cut Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,713.3 FY19/20E EBITDA by 27.6%/19.9% and also downgrade to ‘HOLD/SP’ from ‘BUY/SP’ with revised TP of INR30 (earlier INR51). SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q3FY18 Q2FY18 Muted growth in EBITDA margin for cable business Promoters * 43.5 43.5 43.5 Although subscription revenue increased 2.9% QoQ, activation revenue declined 3.8% MF's, FI's & BK’s 4.9 4.2 4.3 QoQ and carriage revenue declined 4.4% QoQ in Q4FY18. Hathway reported 2.08% QoQ FII's 30.0 34.4 34.4 increase in content cost in Q4FY18. EBITDA margin at 15.8% remained flattish QoQ. Others 21.6 17.9 17.9 Implementation of TRAI’s tariff order remains a key monitorable. * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) Q4FY18 conference call: Key takeaways PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) i) Collection efficiency in cable business stood at 98%; ii) Management believes that the EW Media Stock Nifty Phase I and II cable ARPU will increase by 5 to 8 percent and Phase III and Phase IV Index ARPU will increase by 15-18%.; and iii) The company has HD subscriber base of 216,000. 1 month (16.5) (1.2) (4.6) 3 months (22.2) 1.2 (3.1) Outlook and valuations: challenging times; downgrade to ‘HOLD’ 12 months (30.1) 10.3 4.1 Although we believe among MSOs, Hathway is well placed to capitalise on the digitisation opportunity, monetising Phase III and IV areas remains a key monitorable The decline in broadband ARPU as a result of the intensifying competition and high interest costs are key concerns. We downgrade to ‘HOLD/SP’ from ‘BUY/SP’ with revised TP of INR30 (earlier INR51), based on 8x FY20E EV/EBITDA for consolidated business (ex‐GTPL); GTPL is valued at market cap (20% holding discount). At CMP, the Abneesh Roy stock trades at 10.1x FY19E and 8.3x FY20E EV/EBITDA. +91 22 6620 3141 [email protected] Financials (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 % change Q3FY18 % change FY18 FY19E FY20E Monit Vyas +91 (22) 6623 3463 Revenues 1,457 3,467 (58.0) 1,387 5.1 15,346 17,532 20,074 [email protected] EBITDA 590 745 (20.7) 601 (1.7) 3,356 4,055 4,889 Alok Shah Adjusted Profit 135 (150) NM 239 NM (1,025) (677) (143) +91 22 6620 3040 Adj. diluted EPS 0.2 (0.2) 0.3 (1.2) (0.8) (0.2) [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 10.1 8.3 Note: Quarterly numbers are on standalone basis May 31, 2018 Note: Base quarter numbers are not comparable Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Q4FY18 conference call: Key takeaways Broadband business update Hathway is going to pursue aggressive consumer growth strategy. It added 50,000 subscribers during the quarter. Management believes the subscriber addition momentum will sustain in FY19. 5.2mn homes passed in Q4FY18. Average ARPU stood at INR710. Average GB / consumer / month has increased to 103 in March—strong indicator of demand potential of high speed wireline broadband. Minimum data limits across country increased to 200GB / consumer / month. 54% of consumers have monthly data limits of 1,000GB. Cable business update Collection efficiency at 98%. 65% of subscribers served through Hathway Connect and 55% online payments made by LCOs. FY19 revenue growth will depend on ARPU growth, increase in HD subscribers and market share gains. The company is planning to seed 250,000 HD boxes in FY19. Management believes that Phase I and II ARPU will increase 5-8% in line with inflation and Phase III and Phase IV ARPU will increase 15-18%. Content cost The company has closed content deals for FY19. Increase in content cost for FY19 is pegged at INR400mn. Phase-wise subscribers Phase I: 1.6mn. Phase II: 2.4mn. Phase III: 2.3mn. Phase IV: 0.9mn. Phase-wise ARPU Phase I: INR108. Phase II: INR102. Phase III: INR70. Phase IV: INR55. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Hathway Cable & Datacom Capex Broadband capex: INR2250mn in FY18. Cable capex: INR850mn in FY18. Capex includes amount incurred for new subscribers, subscribers churn related costs and IT upgradation costs. Debt Net debt: INR16.17bn. Standalone debt: INR7.9bn. Foreign debt currently stands at USD74mn. Management has planned to reduce debt to USD25mn by FY19 end in order to reduce the effect of foreign exchange fluctuation. Other takeaways Hathway has no plans to enter fringe markets. The company has HD subscriber base of 216,000. Management is positive on TRAI’s tariff order. Finance cost increased due to conversion of wired credit to term loan, exchange loss and refinancing charges. The company is looking to rationalise cost so that it can pass the benefit to customers. Outlook and valuations: challenging times; downgrade to ‘HOLD’ Hathway has undergone restructuring in Q1FY18. The cable business is shifted to wholly owned subsidiary Hathway Digital Private Limited (HDPL). Further, due to IND AS, the company will not consolidate GTPL numbers. Therefore, the standalone business reflects Hathway broadband financials while consolidated business reflects Hathway broadband & cable financials Although we believe among MSOs, Hathway is well placed to capitalise on the digitisation opportunity, monetising Phase III and IV areas remains a key monitorable. We believe, the trend of declining ARPU will continue going forward because of the intense competition from Jio (Jio has plans to offer 100Mbps Broadband, Unlimited Calls, and Jio TV at Less than INR1,000) in the wired broadband business. Although the company is aiming for cost rationalisation in coming years, we believe the benefit from it will be offset by higher interest cost because of high debt. Factoring the same, we cut FY19/20E EBITDA by 27.6%/19.9% and also downgrade to ‘HOLD/SP’ from ‘Buy/SP’ with TP of INR30 (earlier INR51). 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Table 1: Hathway’s target price calculation FY20E (excluding GTPL) EBITDA (INR mn) 4,889 Target EV/EBITDA multiple (x) 8.0 Less: Minority interest (INR mn) (39) Less: Debt (INR mn) 19,350 Add: Cash and Investments (INR mn) 732 Target market cap (INR mn) 20,530 No. of shares (mn) 830 Target price (INR) 25 Source: Edelweiss research Table 2: GTPL contribution to Hathway at 20% holding discount GTPL contribution Market cap (INR mn) as on date: A 15,295 Company's holding (%): B 37.3 Holding discount (%): C 20.0 Company's interest (INR mn): D=A*B*(1-C) 4,566 Hathway shares (mn) 830 GTPL contribution to Hathway 5 Source: Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Hathway Cable & Datacom Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 % change Q3FY18 % change FY18 FY19E FY20E Net revenues 1,457 3,467 (58.0) 1,387 5.1 15,346 17,532 20,074 Pay channel cost 323 1,758 (81.7) 331 (2.5) 5,694 6,491 7,464 Staff costs 111 169 (34.2) 113 (1.7) 770 855 949 Other operating expenses 433 795 (45.5) 342 26.6 5,527 6,132 6,772 Total expenditure 867 2,722 (68.1) 786 10.3 11,990 13,477 15,185 EBITDA 590 745 (20.7) 601 (1.7) 3,356 4,055 4,889 Depreciation 256 849 (69.8) 246 4.3 3,347 3,722 3,843 EBIT 334 (105) NM 355 (5.9) 9 332 1,045 Interest 234 200 17.1 175 33.2 1,528 1,700 1,900 Other income 35 154 (77.3) 59 (40.9) 97 300 320 Profit before tax 126 (161) NM 239 (47.1) (1,474) (1,068) (535) Provision for taxes (4) Add: Exceptional items (9) (11) NA - (53) Reported net profit 126 (161) NM 239 (47.1) (1,079) (677) (143) Adjusted Profit 135 (150) NM 239 (43.3) (1,025) (677) (143) Diluted shares (mn) 830 830 830 830 830 830 Adjusted Diluted EPS 0.2 (0.2) NM 0.3 (43.3) (1.2) (0.8) (0.2) EV/EBITDA (x) - - - 12.3 10.1 8.3 As % of net revenues - - - 1 1 2 Pay channel cost 22.1 50.7 23.8 37.1 37.0 37.2 Employee cost 7.6 4.9 8.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 Other operating expenses 29.7 22.9 24.7 36.0 35.0 33.7 EBITDA 40.5 21.5 43.3 21.9 23.1 24.4 Reported net profit 9.3 (4.3) 17.2 21.8 21.2 19.1 Note: Quarterly numbers are on standalone basis Change in Estimates FY19E FY20E New Old % change New Old % change Comments Net Revenue 17,532 18,182 (3.6) 20,074 20,777 (3.4) EBITDA 4,054 5,061 (19.9) 4,889 6,110 (20.0) EBITDA Margin 23.1 27.8 24.4 29.4 Adjusted Profit (676) 34 NM (143) 371 (138.7) After Tax Net Profit Margin (3.9) 0.2 (0.7) 1.8 Capex 2,843 3,200 (11.2) 2,900 3,700 (21.6) 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Company Description Hathway is one the largest MSOs as well as one of the leading cable broadband service providers in India.
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