Iraq Weekly Status Report
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Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region
KURDISTAN RISING? CONSIDERATIONS FOR KURDS, THEIR NEIGHBORS, AND THE REGION Michael Rubin AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region Michael Rubin June 2016 American Enterprise Institute © 2016 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any man- ner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. American Enterprise Institute 1150 17th St. NW Washington, DC 20036 www.aei.org. Cover image: Grand Millennium Sualimani Hotel in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan, by Diyar Muhammed, Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons. Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Who Are the Kurds? 5 2. Is This Kurdistan’s Moment? 19 3. What Do the Kurds Want? 27 4. What Form of Government Will Kurdistan Embrace? 56 5. Would Kurdistan Have a Viable Economy? 64 6. Would Kurdistan Be a State of Law? 91 7. What Services Would Kurdistan Provide Its Citizens? 101 8. Could Kurdistan Defend Itself Militarily and Diplomatically? 107 9. Does the United States Have a Coherent Kurdistan Policy? 119 Notes 125 Acknowledgments 137 About the Author 139 iii Executive Summary wo decades ago, most US officials would have been hard-pressed Tto place Kurdistan on a map, let alone consider Kurds as allies. Today, Kurds have largely won over Washington. -
The Kurds in Post-Saddam Iraq
The Kurds in Post-Saddam Iraq Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs September 1, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS22079 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress The Kurds in Post-Saddam Iraq Summary The Kurdish-inhabited region of northern Iraq has been relatively peaceful and prosperous since the fall of Saddam Hussein. However, the Iraqi Kurds’ political autonomy, and territorial and economic demands, have caused friction with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and other Arab leaders of Iraq, and with Christian and other minorities in the north. Turkey and Iran were skeptical about Kurdish autonomy in Iraq but have reconciled themselves to this reality and have emerged as major investors in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Superimposed on Kurd-Arab di Despite limited agreements allowing for new oil exports from the Kurdish region, the major outstanding issues between the Kurds and the central government do not appear close to resolution. Tensions have increased now that Kurdish representation in two key mixed provinces has been reduced by the January 31, 2009, provincial elections. The disputes have nearly erupted into all-out violence between Kurdish militias and central government forces in mid-2009, potentially undermining the stability achieved throughout Iraq in 2008 and causing the U.S. military to propose new U.S. deployments designed to build confidence between Kurdish and government forces. The Obama Administration has not, to date, indicated that the Kurdish-central government disputes would derail or delay a major drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq between now and August 2010. -
The Dubai Initiative
The Dubai Initiative Working Paper Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq Justin Dargin Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq Dubai Initiative – Working Paper Justin Dargin Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative Better Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard University June 2009 SeCURIng THe Peace: THe Battle oveR eTHnICITy AnD eneRgy In MoDeRn IRAq | 1 “There is something very sinister to my mind in this Mesopotamian entanglement.” Winston Churchill letter to Prime Minister David Lloyd George, August 1920 I. Introduction This article examines the legal and political impediments to the Kurd- ish Regional Government’s (KRG) exploration and production contracts, which the central government in Baghdad has refused to recognize. The newly estab- lished Iraqi national constitution significantly opened as many petroleum-control questions as it resolved. Negotiated in 2005, the constitution not only separated branches of government, but established Federalism as its lodestar. When faced with unresolved issues over regional and national control over petroleum resourc- es, however, International Oil Companies (IOCs) function in an ambiguous legal environment that fails to clearly distinguish between federal and regional powers Article 112(1) of the constitution grants the central government a condi- tional right to “…undertake management of oil and gas extracted from present oil and gas fields…” (emphasis mine). Reflective of Iraq’s commitment to federalism, the right to manage oil fields is shared by the central government, the produc- ing governorates and the regional governments. Article 112(1) could, therefore, be construed to mean that the central government has no right to exercise authority over nonproducing fields and future fields: rights that are not explicitly granted to the federal government may be held as residual rights by the regional authori- ties. -
Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq
Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex January 26, 2010 Foreign Policy at Brookings Tracks Security and Reconstruction in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan Afghanistan Index » http://www.brookings.edu/afghanistanindex Iraq Index » http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex Pakistan Index » http://www.brookings.edu/pakistanindex Michael E. O’Hanlon Ian Livingston For more information please contact Ian Livingston at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Tracking the Aftermath of the Surge Page Estimated Number of Iraqi Civilian Fatalities by Month, May 2003-Present………………………...……….……….…...…………………………………3 Detailed Explanation of Iraqi Civilian Fatality Estimates by Time Period…………………………………………...……...………..……………………….4 Enemy-Initiated Attacks Against the Coalition and Its Partners, by Week..…………..… …...……...……………………………………....…………….....5 Iraqi Military and Police Killed Monthly…………..………………… UPDATED………………………….…...………….……………….....………...……5 Weapons Caches Found and Cleared in Iraq, January 2004-Present……………………...………..……………………………………………………….....6 Multiple Fatality Bombings in Iraq……………………...………….…UPDATED……..……..………………..…………………………………..…………..7 Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings…….……………......………………...………..…UPDATED ………..……………..….……………...7 Multiple Fatality Bombings by Type Since January 2007………………… UPDATED .……………..………………..………...…………...………………8 Number of Multiple Fatality Bombings Targeting Civilians by Sectarian Group and Month……….…UPDATED…….…………………..….………….8 Detailed Breakdown -
Iraq and the Kurds: Confronting Withdrawal Fears
IRAQ AND THE KURDS: CONFRONTING WITHDRAWAL FEARS Middle East Report N°103 – 28 March 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION: THE KURDS IN THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT .............. 1 A. THE KURDS’ NINETEEN DEMANDS .............................................................................................. 1 B. TREMORS ALONG THE ARAB-KURDISH FAULT LINE ..................................................................... 3 II. THE DISPUTED TERRITORIES STALEMATE ........................................................ 6 A. ENTRENCHED POSITIONS ............................................................................................................. 6 B. THE CENSUS CRISIS ..................................................................................................................... 8 C. NEGOTIATIONS IN NINEWA ........................................................................................................ 12 III. THE SECURITY CONUNDRUM IN KIRKUK .......................................................... 14 A. THE COMBINED SECURITY MECHANISMS ................................................................................... 15 B. THE STRUGGLE OVER SECURITY ................................................................................................ 19 IV. FIXING THE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE ALONG THE TRIGGER LINE .... 23 A. THE KURDISH PESHMERGAS AND THE IRAQI ARMY .................................................................... 23 -
Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Order Code RS21968 Updated February 14, 2008 Iraq: Government Formation and Benchmarks Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Summary The current government is the product of a U.S.-supported election process designed to produce a democracy, although many now believe it produced a sectarian government incapable of reconciling Iraq’s communities. This sentiment has grown to the point where some believe that the United States should seek a decentralized Iraq with substantial autonomy for each community. However, the Administration says that, partly as a result of the U.S. “troop surge,” it is now seeing some concrete signs of political accommodation, most notably at local levels. See CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman. Elections and Constitutional Referendum in 2005 After about one year of formal occupation, the United States handed sovereignty to an appointed Iraqi government on June 28, 2004. A government and a constitution were voted on thereafter, in line with a March 8, 2004, Transitional Administrative Law (TAL). The first election (January 30, 2005) was for a 275-seat transitional National Assembly, provincial assemblies in each of Iraq’s 18 provinces (41 seats each; 51 for Baghdad), and a Kurdistan regional assembly (111 seats). The election system was proportional representation (closed list) — voters chose among “political entities” (a party, a coalition of parties, or individuals). A female candidate occupied every third position on electoral lists in order to ensure 25% female membership. A total of 111 entities were on the national ballot, of which nine were multi-party coalitions. -
The Kurds As Parties to and Victims of Conflicts in Iraq Inga Rogg and Hans Rimscha Inga Rogg Is Iraq Correspondent for the Neue Zu¨Rcher Zeitung and NZZ Am Sonntag
Volume 89 Number 868 December 2007 The Kurds as parties to and victims of conflicts in Iraq Inga Rogg and Hans Rimscha Inga Rogg is Iraq correspondent for the Neue Zu¨rcher Zeitung and NZZ am Sonntag. She graduated in cultural anthropology and Ottoman history and has done extensive research in the Kurdish region. Hans Rimscha graduated in Islamic studies and anthropology, worked with humanitarian assistance operations in Iraq in the 1990s and is the author of various publications on Middle East issues. Abstract After decades of fighting and suffering, the Kurds in Iraq have achieved far-reaching self-rule. Looking at the history of conflicts and alliances between the Kurds and their counterparts inside Iraq and beyond its borders, the authors find that the region faces an uncertain future because major issues like the future status of Kirkuk remain unsolved. A federal and democratic Iraq offers a rare opportunity for a peaceful settlement of the Kurdish question in Iraq – and for national reconciliation. While certain groups and currents in Iraq and the wider Arab world have to overcome the notion that federalism equals partition, the Kurds can only dispel fears about their drive for independence if they fully reintegrate into Iraq and show greater commitment to democratic reforms in the Kurdistan Region. ‘‘This is the other Iraq’’, says a promotion TV spot regularly broadcast on Al Arrabiyeh TV, ‘‘The people of Iraqi Kurdistan invite you to discover their peaceful region, a place that has practised democracy for over a decade, a place where universities, markets, cafe´s and fairgrounds buzz with progress and prosperity and where people are already sowing the seeds of a brighter future.’’1 A regional government After decades of internal and regional conflict, the large-scale destruction and persecution of the Kurdish population, and periods of bitter infighting between 823 I. -
Iraqi Political Groups - Part 1 - Part 2
C 0 5 9 519 5.3 'olitical Groups Part 1 (b)(3) IRAQI POLITICAL GROUPS - PART 1 - PART 2 RFE/RL, 21 June 04 Iraqi Political Groups - Part 1 Compiled by Kathleen Ridolfo Constitutional Monarchy Movement. Headed by Sharif Ali bin al-Husayn, cousin of the deposed Iraqi king, Faysal II, who was killed in the 1958 coup in Iraq. The group's website claims: "Constitutional monarchy is the one thing that could rescue Iraq from the factional conflicts between the various groups over the question of the position of the head of the state, because the Monarch would not favor one group to the detriment of another, but rather would represent all the people." The group supports an elected national assembly, and claims that it can maintain a balance in Iraq because "Monarchy needs not to be affected by the political ideologies of the competing parties because its main role is an arbitrator between all and guarantor of the constitution." The CMM was one of seven opposition groups to receive financial support from the United States prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom. However, the group was not afforded a seat on the interim Governing Council, much to the chagrin of al-Husayn (http://www.iraqcmrn.org/). Da'wah (Call) Party. Established in 1957-58, it is largely seen as a Shi'a organization, but does claim some Sunni membership. The spokesman of the party is Ibrahim al-Jalari, who served on the Iraqi GoVerning Cbuncil: The party is arguably -the biggest and most well-supported Shi'a group in Iraq, having long opposed Ba'athist rule. -
After Saddam Assessing the Reconstruction of Iraq
THE SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION ANALYSIS PAPER Number 1, January 2004 AFTER SADDAM ASSESSING THE RECONSTRUCTION OF IRAQ KENNETH M. POLLACK THE SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION ANALYSIS PAPER Number 1, January 2004 AFTER SADDAM ASSESSING THE RECONSTRUCTION OF IRAQ KENNETH M. POLLACK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY he situation in Iraq is extremely complex. In patterns on the ground. Consequently, most Iraqis T some areas, American and Coalition efforts have do not want the United States to leave; they just helped Iraqis to make real progress toward transform- want the United States to do a better job rebuilding ing their economy, polity, and society. What’s more, their country. many basic factors in the country augur well for real progress if the pace of reconstruction is maintained. •Similarly, most of Iraq’s leaders have shown great By the same token, there are also numerous negative patience and urged their followers to cooperate with developments in the country, many the result of mis- the U.S.-led reconstruction. They appear to recog- taken American policies. nize that the United States ultimately is striving to build the stable, prosperous, and pluralist nation they hope for. They also seem to realize that all of THE GOOD NEWS the alternatives to cooperation with the United There is enough going well in Iraq that there is no rea- States are much worse, and much less likely to pro- son to believe that the U.S.-led reconstruction effort is duce their ideal outcome; thus they have generally doomed to failure. -
Iraq: Transition to Sovereignty
Order Code RS21820 Updated July 21, 2004 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: Transition to Sovereignty name redacted Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Jennifer Elsea American Law Division Summary Amid ongoing insurgency, the United States handed sovereignty to an Iraqi interim government on June 28. The Bush Administration maintains that the handover was a success and will begin a transition to democracy and stability. Critics assert that the handover does not appear to have diminished the anti-U.S. insurgency, threatening the transition roadmap developed by the United States and United Nations. Legal issues may arise regarding the validity of laws issued during the occupation, as well as the status of U.S. troops in Iraq. See CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: U.S. Regime Change Efforts and Post-Saddam Governance. Background The Bush Administration had initially made the end of the U.S. occupation contingent on the completion of a new constitution and the holding of national elections for a new government, tasks to be completed by 2005. However, political infighting among Iraq’s various ethnic and political factions, coupled with a persistent insurgency, slowed progress on setting up an elected political structure. The U.S. administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer (head of the U.S.-led occupation authority, the Coalition Provisional Authority or CPA), in consultation with Iraqis appointed to a 25-seat “Iraq Governing Council (IGC),” agreed to a plan that would lead to sovereignty for Iraq by June 30, 2004. Under the plan, announced November 15, 2003, a Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) — a provisional constitution — was to be signed by February 29, 2004, followed by the holding of local “caucuses” in each province to select a national assembly (by May 31, 2004). -
Consociationalism in Iraq After 2003
Consociationalism in Iraq after 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Politics and International Relations School of Politics, Economics and International Relations Ibrahim Aziz September 2017 Abstract This thesis explores whether Iraq was a consociational democracy both formally as well as in practice from 2003 to 2014. Consociational theories suggest that democracies that encompass the consociational principles of proportional representation, autonomy, power sharing government, and the protection of key community interests by mutual veto provisions are more stable. Consequently, consociational principles have frequently been promoted in conflict-affected environments, including in Iraq. The thesis examines how and to what extent each of these elements is reflected in the constitution, and in government practice in Iraq. The analysis is divided chronologically into three parts: the US-led occupation and drafting of the constitution (2003 – 2005), the first election and the continued US military presence (2005-2010), and the period after the second election and the withdrawal of coalition forces (2010-2014). The thesis examines the consociational character of Iraq’s institutions and the degree of its implementation in the period in question through the analysis of key legal texts, and process tracing informed by primary documentary and news sources, as well as extensive elite interviews. On the basis of this empirical investigation, it finds four things. First, consociationalism is only partially reflected in the formal, constitutional provisions for Iraq’s governing institutions. Important practices, such as power sharing, have no constitutional basis in Iraq, and are at best implicit. Despite this, they are at times a prominent aspect of governance practice in Iraq, but at other times (e.g. -
The Dynamics of Democracy in the Middle East
Special Report The dynamics of democracy in the Middle East March 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.