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The Dynamics of Democracy in the Middle East

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The Dynamics of Democracy in the Middle East Special Report The dynamics of democracy in the Middle East March 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable The dynamics of democracy in the Middle East 1 Contents 3 At-a-glance: Middle East and North Africa 5 Overview: Prospects for democratic reform 8 Index of Political Freedom 10 Algeria 12 Bahrain 14 Egypt 16 Iran 18 Iraq 20 Israel 22 Jordan 24 Kuwait 26 Lebanon 28 Libya 30 Morocco 32 Oman 34 Palestinian Territories 36 Qatar 38 Saudi Arabia 40 Sudan 42 Syria 44 Tunisia 46 United Arab Emirates 48 Ye m e n Special Report March 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 The dynamics of democracy in the Middle East 3 At-a-glance: Middle East and North Africa Political and social indicatorsa Leader/family Political Life expect- Adult Health exp Human Dev in power (yrs) freedom b ancy (yrs) literacy (%) (PPP US$)c Index rankd Algeria 6 4.30 69.5 68.9 169 108 Bahrain 33 4.90 73.9 88.5 664 40 Egypt 23 3.85 68.6 55.6 153 120 Iran 16 3.40 70.1 77.1 422 101 Iraq 9 months 5.80 60.7 n/a n/a n/a Israel 4 8.80 79.1 95.3 1,839 22 Jordan 49 4.45 70.9 90.9 412 90 Kuwait 44 5.95 76.5 82.9 612 44 Lebanon 6 6.70 73.5 86.5 673 80 Libya 36 1.75 72.6 81.7 239 58 Morocco 49 5.05 68.5 50.7 199 125 Oman 34 4.45 72.3 74.4 343 74 Palest’n Terr 2 months 6.10 72.3 90.2 n/a 102 Qatar 33 4.90 72.0 84.2 782 47 Saudi Arabia 73 1.75 72.1 77.9 591 77 Sudan 5 3.25 55.5 59.9 39 139 Syria 34 2.35 71.7 82.9 427 106 Tunisia 17 3.10 72.7 73.2 463 92 UAE 33 3.25 74.6 77.3 921 49 Yemen 15 4.60 59.8 49.0 69 149 Economic indicators, 2004e Population Nominal GDP GDP/head Inflation Current-acc’t Public debt (m) (US$ bn) (US$) (%) (% GDP) (% GDP) Algeria 33.4 76.3 2,290 4.6 16.9 35.5 Bahrain 0.7 10.0 13,590 2.2 3.2 63.1 Egypt 73.3 76.6 1,040 11.3 4.9 95.6 Iran 69.8 148.9 2,130 14.9 4.7 27.5 Iraq 25.9 33.7 1,300 7.0 -5.7 n/a Israel 6.8 117.2 17,223 -0.4 0.1 104.0 Jordan 5.6 10.9 1,930 3.4 -0.2 82.6 Kuwait 2.6 49.4 18,900 1.0 24.8 28.9 Lebanon 3.7 17.3 4,670 1.5 -23.2 213.5 Libya 5.7 25.2 4,460 2.9 43.0 11.8 Morocco 31.1 53.1 1,710 1.7 1.3 71.3 Oman 2.7 23.6 8,790 0.2 10.8 10.5 Palest’n Terr 3.6 3.3 917 3.0 n/a n/a Qatar 0.7 23.6 31,740 4.0 35.5 61.8 Saudi Arabia 25.0 236.1 9,460 0.8 15.8 74.8 Sudan 34.4 19.2 560 9.0 -3.0 100.3 Syria 18.2 22.3 1,230 2.1 3.0 84.8 Tunisia 9.9 28.3 2,840 3.6 -1.5 58.0 UAE 4.3 90.1 20,750 3.6 15.1 16.8 Yemen 20.7 14.0 675 12.5 4.9 45.8 a Social indicators: UN Development Programme. b Economist Intelligence Unit index, 1 to 10; 10=most free (see page 5). c Per head. d UNDP, out of 177 countries. e Actuals and EIU estimates. Special Report March 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 The dynamics of democracy in the Middle East 5 Overview: Prospects for democratic reform One of the intended consequences of the US invasion of Iraq, or so some of its advocates said, was to impart the values of freedom and democracy to the “broad Middle East”. In the chaotic aftermath of the invasion, the assertion that Saddam Hussein’s departure would have a wholesome, catalytic effect on the politics of the region appeared misplaced. Yet there are now signs that the message of zero-tolerance for tyranny and terrorism (whether Islamist or state- sponsored) is seeping into the consciousness of the Arab world. The region’s dictators and absolute monarchs have been forced to take note of both the changed international mood and of the latent power of their own people. Bush provides the theme The simple appeal of the US president, George W Bush, for the spread of freedom and democracy in the Middle East has provided a unifying theme. This survey attempts to show how that theme is relevant to the many different regimes across the Middle East and North Africa region. A basic issue for any democratic transformation in the Middle East must be the method by which it is pursued—through gradual reforms initiated by the existing regimes, or by more radical remedies, either through the application of external pressure or through popular uprisings. In the case of Iraq, the US and its allies, including a substantial bloc of Iraqi opposition groups in exile, concluded that Saddam’s regime was irredeemable. Reaching that conclusion was made easier by Saddam’s failure to comply unambiguously with UN resolutions requiring Iraq to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programme. In the event the WMDs did not exist. But keeping alive the belief that they might exist was one way for Saddam to sustain his reign of terror. Similar considerations are at work in the two other states—Syria and Iran—that are most at risk of externally induced regime change. Saddam had to come clean on WMD, and risk revealing himself as an emperor with no clothes. In a similar fashion, Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, is being forced to pull his forces and intelligence agents out of Lebanon, while Iran has a limited period to negotiate its way out of a showdown with the West over its nuclear programme. For the rulers of Syria and Iran, caving in to pressure means the risk of losing face; resisting these demands means inviting retribution in the form of international sanctions and possible military attack. This may ultimately lead to the breakdown of one or both of these regimes, opening the way for a complete reconstruction of the political system on Iraqi lines. In the short term, however, the pressures on Syria and Iran are more likely to result in increased state repression rather than any moves towards democracy (with Syria more vulnerable to a coup d’état). Issues for all countries The painful process of building a democratic system from scratch in Iraq has brought out into the open a number of critical issues that are relevant for other states in the region. These include dealing with sectarian and ethnic minorities, the role of Islam, and federalism. The model that is being applied is based on a distribution of power among the various groups according to a negotiated formula—similar in many respects to the Lebanese system, where Christians, Special Report March 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 6 The dynamics of democracy in the Middle East Muslims (Sunni and Shia) and Druze hold specific posts in the government and military.
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