Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq
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The Dubai Initiative
The Dubai Initiative Working Paper Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq Justin Dargin Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq Dubai Initiative – Working Paper Justin Dargin Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative Better Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard University June 2009 SeCURIng THe Peace: THe Battle oveR eTHnICITy AnD eneRgy In MoDeRn IRAq | 1 “There is something very sinister to my mind in this Mesopotamian entanglement.” Winston Churchill letter to Prime Minister David Lloyd George, August 1920 I. Introduction This article examines the legal and political impediments to the Kurd- ish Regional Government’s (KRG) exploration and production contracts, which the central government in Baghdad has refused to recognize. The newly estab- lished Iraqi national constitution significantly opened as many petroleum-control questions as it resolved. Negotiated in 2005, the constitution not only separated branches of government, but established Federalism as its lodestar. When faced with unresolved issues over regional and national control over petroleum resourc- es, however, International Oil Companies (IOCs) function in an ambiguous legal environment that fails to clearly distinguish between federal and regional powers Article 112(1) of the constitution grants the central government a condi- tional right to “…undertake management of oil and gas extracted from present oil and gas fields…” (emphasis mine). Reflective of Iraq’s commitment to federalism, the right to manage oil fields is shared by the central government, the produc- ing governorates and the regional governments. Article 112(1) could, therefore, be construed to mean that the central government has no right to exercise authority over nonproducing fields and future fields: rights that are not explicitly granted to the federal government may be held as residual rights by the regional authori- ties. -
Iraq and the Kurds: Confronting Withdrawal Fears
IRAQ AND THE KURDS: CONFRONTING WITHDRAWAL FEARS Middle East Report N°103 – 28 March 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION: THE KURDS IN THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT .............. 1 A. THE KURDS’ NINETEEN DEMANDS .............................................................................................. 1 B. TREMORS ALONG THE ARAB-KURDISH FAULT LINE ..................................................................... 3 II. THE DISPUTED TERRITORIES STALEMATE ........................................................ 6 A. ENTRENCHED POSITIONS ............................................................................................................. 6 B. THE CENSUS CRISIS ..................................................................................................................... 8 C. NEGOTIATIONS IN NINEWA ........................................................................................................ 12 III. THE SECURITY CONUNDRUM IN KIRKUK .......................................................... 14 A. THE COMBINED SECURITY MECHANISMS ................................................................................... 15 B. THE STRUGGLE OVER SECURITY ................................................................................................ 19 IV. FIXING THE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE ALONG THE TRIGGER LINE .... 23 A. THE KURDISH PESHMERGAS AND THE IRAQI ARMY .................................................................... 23 -
Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Order Code RS21968 Updated February 14, 2008 Iraq: Government Formation and Benchmarks Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Summary The current government is the product of a U.S.-supported election process designed to produce a democracy, although many now believe it produced a sectarian government incapable of reconciling Iraq’s communities. This sentiment has grown to the point where some believe that the United States should seek a decentralized Iraq with substantial autonomy for each community. However, the Administration says that, partly as a result of the U.S. “troop surge,” it is now seeing some concrete signs of political accommodation, most notably at local levels. See CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman. Elections and Constitutional Referendum in 2005 After about one year of formal occupation, the United States handed sovereignty to an appointed Iraqi government on June 28, 2004. A government and a constitution were voted on thereafter, in line with a March 8, 2004, Transitional Administrative Law (TAL). The first election (January 30, 2005) was for a 275-seat transitional National Assembly, provincial assemblies in each of Iraq’s 18 provinces (41 seats each; 51 for Baghdad), and a Kurdistan regional assembly (111 seats). The election system was proportional representation (closed list) — voters chose among “political entities” (a party, a coalition of parties, or individuals). A female candidate occupied every third position on electoral lists in order to ensure 25% female membership. A total of 111 entities were on the national ballot, of which nine were multi-party coalitions. -
The Kurds As Parties to and Victims of Conflicts in Iraq Inga Rogg and Hans Rimscha Inga Rogg Is Iraq Correspondent for the Neue Zu¨Rcher Zeitung and NZZ Am Sonntag
Volume 89 Number 868 December 2007 The Kurds as parties to and victims of conflicts in Iraq Inga Rogg and Hans Rimscha Inga Rogg is Iraq correspondent for the Neue Zu¨rcher Zeitung and NZZ am Sonntag. She graduated in cultural anthropology and Ottoman history and has done extensive research in the Kurdish region. Hans Rimscha graduated in Islamic studies and anthropology, worked with humanitarian assistance operations in Iraq in the 1990s and is the author of various publications on Middle East issues. Abstract After decades of fighting and suffering, the Kurds in Iraq have achieved far-reaching self-rule. Looking at the history of conflicts and alliances between the Kurds and their counterparts inside Iraq and beyond its borders, the authors find that the region faces an uncertain future because major issues like the future status of Kirkuk remain unsolved. A federal and democratic Iraq offers a rare opportunity for a peaceful settlement of the Kurdish question in Iraq – and for national reconciliation. While certain groups and currents in Iraq and the wider Arab world have to overcome the notion that federalism equals partition, the Kurds can only dispel fears about their drive for independence if they fully reintegrate into Iraq and show greater commitment to democratic reforms in the Kurdistan Region. ‘‘This is the other Iraq’’, says a promotion TV spot regularly broadcast on Al Arrabiyeh TV, ‘‘The people of Iraqi Kurdistan invite you to discover their peaceful region, a place that has practised democracy for over a decade, a place where universities, markets, cafe´s and fairgrounds buzz with progress and prosperity and where people are already sowing the seeds of a brighter future.’’1 A regional government After decades of internal and regional conflict, the large-scale destruction and persecution of the Kurdish population, and periods of bitter infighting between 823 I. -
Iraq Weekly Status Report
UNCLASSIFIED January 3, 2008 D E P Iraq Weekly A R T Status Report M E N T O F January 3, 2008 S T Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs A US Department of State T E 1 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED January 3, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS 3 D E POLITICAL P • Governance & Legislation 4 A • Provincial 5 R SECURITY T • Situation Update 7 M • Security Transition 8 E N ECONOMIC T • Economic & Government Capacity Update 10 • Oil 13 O • Electricity 18 F • Economic Indicators 19 DIPLOMATIC S • Political Engagement 22 T A • Coalition 23 T E Notes, Source Citations and Contact Information 24 2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED January 3, 2008 HIGHLIGHTS • PM Maliki announced he is healthy after undergoing a medical check-up in D London due to exhaustion. (Political, page 4) E P • KRG President Barzani, Jalal Talabani, and Tariq al-Hashimi signed a “Letter of A Common Understanding” outlining a joint vision for a unified democratic Iraq and R a commitment to reconciliation. (Political, page 4) T • Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces killed or captured 51 al-Qaeda operatives in M December. (Security, page 7) E N • The Iraqi Military Academy at Rustamiyah graduated 229 newly-commissioned T officers for the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Air Force December 29. (Security, page 8) O • The GOI announced a cut-back of food rations. The Trade Ministry will keep five F necessary items, including flour, oil, rice, and infant milk. The GOI will also take steps to reduce the number of people depending on the government-run Public S Distribution System. -
Consociationalism in Iraq After 2003
Consociationalism in Iraq after 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Politics and International Relations School of Politics, Economics and International Relations Ibrahim Aziz September 2017 Abstract This thesis explores whether Iraq was a consociational democracy both formally as well as in practice from 2003 to 2014. Consociational theories suggest that democracies that encompass the consociational principles of proportional representation, autonomy, power sharing government, and the protection of key community interests by mutual veto provisions are more stable. Consequently, consociational principles have frequently been promoted in conflict-affected environments, including in Iraq. The thesis examines how and to what extent each of these elements is reflected in the constitution, and in government practice in Iraq. The analysis is divided chronologically into three parts: the US-led occupation and drafting of the constitution (2003 – 2005), the first election and the continued US military presence (2005-2010), and the period after the second election and the withdrawal of coalition forces (2010-2014). The thesis examines the consociational character of Iraq’s institutions and the degree of its implementation in the period in question through the analysis of key legal texts, and process tracing informed by primary documentary and news sources, as well as extensive elite interviews. On the basis of this empirical investigation, it finds four things. First, consociationalism is only partially reflected in the formal, constitutional provisions for Iraq’s governing institutions. Important practices, such as power sharing, have no constitutional basis in Iraq, and are at best implicit. Despite this, they are at times a prominent aspect of governance practice in Iraq, but at other times (e.g. -
Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq
Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex October 31, 2010 Foreign Policy at Brookings Tracks Security and Reconstruction in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan Afghanistan Index » http://www.brookings.edu/afghanistanindex Iraq Index » http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex Pakistan Index » http://www.brookings.edu/pakistanindex Michael E. O’Hanlon Ian Livingston For more information please contact Ian Livingston at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Tracking the Aftermath of the Surge Page Estimated Number of Iraqi Civilian Fatalities by Month, May 2003-Present…….…...…………………………..…….....….. UPDATED 1015.10………3 Detailed Explanation of Iraqi Civilian Fatality Estimates by Time Period…………… UPDATED 10.15.10…..…………..……………………………….4 Enemy-Initiated Attacks Against the Coalition and Its Partners, by Week..…………..… …...……...……………………………………....…………….....5 Iraqi Military and Police Killed Monthly…………..……………………………….....… UPDATED 10.31.10....………….……………….....………...……5 Weapons Caches Found and Cleared in Iraq, January 2004-Present……………………...………..……………………………………………………….....6 Multiple Fatality Bombings in Iraq………………… UPDATED 10.31.10…………....…...………..….……..…………………………………..………..…..7 Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings…….……………...... UPDATED 10.31.10.……...…...………..………..…………..….……..………...7 Number of Multiple Fatality Bombings Targeting Civilians by Sectarian Group and Month…… UPDATED 10.31.10...….….….………..….………….8 Detailed Breakdown of Deaths Associated with Multiple Fatality -
Iraq's New Political
UNITED STATES InsTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org SPECIAL REPORT 1200 17th Street NW • Washington, DC 20036 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPORT Phebe Marr This report concludes a two-year study on Iraq’s new political leaders and their visions for the future, based on extensive background data and personal interviews with over seventy top leaders since 2003. This portion of the study focuses on leaders brought to power by the election of December 2005 and the formation of a permanent government in 2006. The study finds Iraq’s New Political Map that rapid and continuous change in political leaders is making it difficult for them to acquire experience and achieve effective government. Also, tensions between outsiders (exiles) who were opponents of Saddam, and insiders, mainly those who served Summary in the previous regime, are generating distrust and making compromise difficult. However, although ethnic and sectarian • In 2006, a new group of Iraqi leaders came to power through elections. In the polarization persists, elections have produced a new political absence of strong bureaucratic and military institutions, the qualities and skills they constellation of parties—and militias—with a greater variety of bring to bear and their capacity and willingness to cooperate, especially across ethnic views and constituencies. This development may provide some and sectarian lines, will determine whether Iraq collapses into chaos or moves forward opportunity for new alignments across the ethnic and sectarian toward stability. divides. • Three characteristics of these leaders are striking. First is how new and inexperienced The report suggests that these new political groups need to focus most of them are. -
Iraq's New Political
UNITED STATES InsTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org SPECIAL REPORT 1200 17th Street NW • Washington, DC 20036 • 202.457.1700 • fax 202.429.6063 ABOUT THE REPORT Phebe Marr This report concludes a two-year study on Iraq’s new political leaders and their visions for the future, based on extensive background data and personal interviews with over seventy top leaders since 2003. This portion of the study focuses on leaders brought to power by the election of December 2005 and the formation of a permanent government in 2006. The study finds Iraq’s New Political Map that rapid and continuous change in political leaders is making it difficult for them to acquire experience and achieve effective government. Also, tensions between outsiders (exiles) who were opponents of Saddam, and insiders, mainly those who served Summary in the previous regime, are generating distrust and making compromise difficult. However, although ethnic and sectarian • In 2006, a new group of Iraqi leaders came to power through elections. In the polarization persists, elections have produced a new political absence of strong bureaucratic and military institutions, the qualities and skills they constellation of parties—and militias—with a greater variety of bring to bear and their capacity and willingness to cooperate, especially across ethnic views and constituencies. This development may provide some and sectarian lines, will determine whether Iraq collapses into chaos or moves forward opportunity for new alignments across the ethnic and sectarian toward stability. divides. • Three characteristics of these leaders are striking. First is how new and inexperienced The report suggests that these new political groups need to focus most of them are. -
Trends in Iraqi Violence, Casualties and Impact of War: 2003-2015
1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 Anthony H. Cordesman Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Email: [email protected] Web version: www.csis.org/burke/reports Trends in Iraqi Violence, Casualties and Impact of War: 2003-2015 Anthony H. Cordesman [email protected] Working Draft Burke Chair October 5, 2015 In Strategy Introduction The data on the patterns of violence in Iraq are uncertain at best, and so are the data on many of the factors that have generated that violence. There are, however, enough data to gain some insights into how the current fighting compares with fighting from the U.S. invasion to the withdrawal of U.S. combat force at the end of 2011, to illustrate the different patterns in casualties, and to show the importance of some of the factors that have driven the fighting and the growing divisions within Iraq. This analysis draws on a number of sources to portray the trend data in graphic form and map the patterns in the fighting from 2003 to the present. It also shows some of the key sectarian, ethnic, demographic, and economic forces that have helped shape the fighting. One needs to be careful about confusing correlation with causation, but some key factors that have helped shaped the violence in Iraq are clear. In other cases, the sheer complexity of the different factors involved is a warning against putting too much emphasis on any single cause or pattern, assuming that national trends can explain local or regional patterns, or seeing the conflict in terms of single threat. -
Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs October 28, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL31339 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Summary The Obama Administration is facing a security environment in Iraq vastly improved over that which prevailed during 2005-2007, although still not completely peaceful or without potential to deteriorate significantly. The overall frequency of violence is down to post-Saddam low levels, yet, since May 2009, insurgents have increased high profile attacks and the Obama Administration appears increasingly concerned about Iraq’s ability to maintain security. These attacks did not derail the June 30, 2009, U.S. withdrawal of combat troops from major cities and have not, to date, caused a modification of the February 27, 2009, announcement by President Obama that all U.S. combat brigades would be withdrawn by August 31, 2010. This would leave a residual presence of 35,000–50,000 U.S. trainers, advisers, and mentors, with these to be withdrawn by the end of 2011. The drawdown is in line with a U.S.-Iraq “Security Agreement” that took effect January 1, 2009. Despite the fact that recent high profile attacks have not stimulated a return to sectarian warfare in Iraq, some U.S. officials believe that a U.S. military presence might be needed beyond 2011 to ensure further political progress and produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. -
Iraq's Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond
IRAQ’S UNCERTAIN FUTURE: ELECTIONS AND BEYOND Middle East Report N°94 – 25 February 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. LESSONS FROM THE 2009 PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS ....................................... 2 A. STRIKING OUTCOME ....................................................................................................................2 B. LESSONS LEARNED ......................................................................................................................7 1. Maliki and his party .....................................................................................................................7 2. The main rival parties ..................................................................................................................8 3. Independents ..............................................................................................................................10 III. PRE-ELECTION POSITIONING................................................................................. 12 A. ELECTORAL POLITICS AND ALLIANCE FORMATION ...................................................................12 1. The Iraqi National Alliance........................................................................................................13 2. The State of Law list..................................................................................................................15