Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
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Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs October 28, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL31339 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Summary The Obama Administration is facing a security environment in Iraq vastly improved over that which prevailed during 2005-2007, although still not completely peaceful or without potential to deteriorate significantly. The overall frequency of violence is down to post-Saddam low levels, yet, since May 2009, insurgents have increased high profile attacks and the Obama Administration appears increasingly concerned about Iraq’s ability to maintain security. These attacks did not derail the June 30, 2009, U.S. withdrawal of combat troops from major cities and have not, to date, caused a modification of the February 27, 2009, announcement by President Obama that all U.S. combat brigades would be withdrawn by August 31, 2010. This would leave a residual presence of 35,000–50,000 U.S. trainers, advisers, and mentors, with these to be withdrawn by the end of 2011. The drawdown is in line with a U.S.-Iraq “Security Agreement” that took effect January 1, 2009. Despite the fact that recent high profile attacks have not stimulated a return to sectarian warfare in Iraq, some U.S. officials believe that a U.S. military presence might be needed beyond 2011 to ensure further political progress and produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. Others worry that the many remaining political disputes among Iraqi factions—and particularly between the Kurds and the central government— could escalate and reignite civil conflict; this concern was a theme of the three day visit to Iraq by Vice President Biden during the July 4, 2009, weekend. The political disputes were a factor in the competition for January 31, 2009, provincial elections, and are continuing as Iraq heads toward the next national elections in January 2010. The provincial elections went ahead peacefully and produced a victory for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his allies, but also exposed splits between Maliki and other erstwhile Shiite allies. These former allies, in August 2009, formed a new coalition to compete against Maliki’s slate in the upcoming elections. The security progress in 2008 and 2009 came after several years of frustration that Operation Iraqi Freedom had overthrown Saddam Hussein’s regime, only to see Iraq wracked by a violent Sunni Arab-led insurgency, resulting Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence, competition among Shiite groups, and the failure of Iraq’s government to equitably administer justice or deliver services. Mounting U.S. casualties and financial costs—without clear movement toward national political reconciliation—stimulated debate within the 110th Congress over whether a stable Iraq could ever be achieved, and at what cost. With an apparent consensus within the Administration to wind down the U.S. combat in Iraq, U.S. economic and security aid to Iraq has been reduced since FY2008. For further information, see CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman, Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman; and CRS Report RL31833, Iraq: Reconstruction Assistance, by Curt Tarnoff. Congressional Research Service Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Contents Policy in the 1990s Emphasized Containment .............................................................................3 The Clinton Administration, the Iraq Liberation Act, and Major Anti-Saddam Factions .............................................................................................................................3 Post-September 11, 2001: Regime Change and War.....................................................................6 Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)..............................................................................................7 Congressional and Security Council Action.....................................................................8 Post-Saddam Transition and Governance.....................................................................................9 Transition Process.................................................................................................................9 Occupation Period/Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)...............................................9 Transitional Administrative Law (TAL).........................................................................10 Sovereignty Handover/Interim (Allawi) Government ....................................................10 Elections in 2005 ......................................................................................................... 11 Political Reconciliation, 2009 Elections, and “Benchmarks”................................................ 11 January 31, 2009, Provincial Elections and Context.......................................................12 New Coalitions and Elections Going Forward ...............................................................14 Iraqi Pledges and Status of Accomplishment .................................................................16 Regional and International Diplomatic Efforts to Promote Iraq Stability........................16 Human Rights and Rule of Law ....................................................................................17 U.N. Involvement in Governance Issues........................................................................19 Economic Reconstruction and U.S. Assistance ..........................................................................19 Oil Revenues ................................................................................................................20 Lifting U.S. Sanctions...................................................................................................21 Debt Relief/WTO Membership/IMF..............................................................................22 Security Challenges and Responses...........................................................................................22 Sunni Arab-Led Insurgency and Al Qaeda in Iraq................................................................23 Sunni “Awakening” and “Sons of Iraq” Fighters............................................................24 Sectarian Violence and Shiite Militias/Civil War .................................................................26 Shiite-on-Shiite Violence/March 2008 Basra Battles......................................................27 Iranian Support .............................................................................................................28 Iraq’s Northern Border ........................................................................................................29 The Current Situation and U.S. Drawdown Plans ................................................................30 Troop Withdrawal Plan .................................................................................................31 Building Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)....................................................................................32 ISF Weaponry ...............................................................................................................33 Coalition-Building and Maintenance ...................................................................................36 Coalition Mandate/SOFA....................................................................................................37 U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement........................................................................................38 Iraq Study Group Report, Legislative Proposals, and Options for the Obama Administration.......................................................................................................................40 Iraq Study Group Report .....................................................................................................40 Further Options: Altering Troop Levels or Mission..............................................................41 Further Troop Increase ..................................................................................................41 Immediate and Complete Withdrawal............................................................................41 Withdrawal Timetable...................................................................................................42 Troop Mission Change..................................................................................................43 Congressional Research Service Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Planning for Withdrawal ...............................................................................................43 Requiring More Time Between Deployments ................................................................43 Stepped Up International and Regional Diplomacy..............................................................44 Reorganizing the Political Structure, and “Federalism”........................................................44 Reorganize the Existing Power Structure.......................................................................44 Support the Dominant Factions .....................................................................................45 “Federalism”/Decentralization/Break-Up Options .........................................................45