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Looking Into Iraq Chaillot Paper July 2005 n°79 Looking into Iraq Martin van Bruinessen, Jean-François Daguzan, Andrzej Kapiszewski, Walter Posch and Álvaro de Vasconcelos Edited by Walter Posch cc79-cover.qxp 28/07/2005 15:27 Page 2 Chaillot Paper Chaillot n° 79 In January 2002 the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) beca- Looking into Iraq me an autonomous Paris-based agency of the European Union. Following an EU Council Joint Action of 20 July 2001, it is now an integral part of the new structures that will support the further development of the CFSP/ESDP. The Institute’s core mission is to provide analyses and recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of the European security and defence policy. In carrying out that mission, it also acts as an interface between European experts and decision-makers at all levels. Chaillot Papers are monographs on topical questions written either by a member of the ISS research team or by outside authors chosen and commissioned by the Institute. Early drafts are normally discussed at a semi- nar or study group of experts convened by the Institute and publication indicates that the paper is considered Edited by Walter Posch Edited by Walter by the ISS as a useful and authoritative contribution to the debate on CFSP/ESDP. Responsibility for the views expressed in them lies exclusively with authors. Chaillot Papers are also accessible via the Institute’s Website: www.iss-eu.org cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 1 Chaillot Paper July 2005 n°79 Looking into Iraq Martin van Bruinessen, Jean-François Daguzan, Andrzej Kapiszewski, Walter Posch and Álvaro de Vasconcelos Edited by Walter Posch Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 2 Institute for Security Studies European Union 43 avenue du Président Wilson 75775 Paris cedex 16 tel.: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 30 fax: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 31 e-mail: institute@iss-eu.org www.iss-eu.org Director: Nicole Gnesotto © EU Institute for Security Studies 2005. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for Security Studies. ISSN 1017-7566 ISBN 92-9198-075-7 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Condé-sur-Noireau (France) by Corlet Imprimeur. Graphic design by Claire Mabille (Paris). cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 3 Contents n°79 July 2005 Préface Nicole Gnesotto 5 Introduction 7 Walter Posch The Iraqi elections and their consequences. Power-sharing, 1 a key to the country’s political future 13 Andrzej Kapiszewski • Electoral rules 13 • Political groupings’ participation in the elections. Security problems 14 • Election results 15 • Views on the elections 17 • Post-election dynamics: the formation of the new government 19 • The challenges ahead 21 2 A majority ignored: the Arabs in Iraq 25 Walter Posch • US policy: how to cope with anarchy 26 • Political Islam fills the security and policy gap – somehow 28 • Shias and Sunnis 30 • The insurgency 35 • Transforming the insurgency 41 3 Kurdish challenges 45 Martin van Bruinessen • Kurdish autonomy 45 • Autonomy, integration into Iraq, or independence? 47 • Kirkuk, the Turkmen and Turkey 49 • Kirkuk after the war 56 • Turkey, Iran, Syria and their proxies 59 • The PKK 62 • Reopening the Mosul file 64 • Who controls the Kurdish region? 66 • Maps 69 cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 4 Contents 4 Partir sans partir : quelle politique des Etats-Unis à l’égard de l’Irak ? 73 Jean-François Daguzan • Quelle constitution pour l’Irak d’après-guerre ? 74 • Les options américaines après le référendum 78 • Conséquences régionales 81 • Le retour du « printemps arabe » et du « printemps américain » ? 84 5 The EU and Iraq 87 Álvaro de Vasconcelos • A common view of the Iraq crisis? 88 6 Conclusion: a weak state in the making 95 Walter Posch • The west Asian crisis 96 • Strengthening the state and democracy in Iraq 98 • Prospects 100 Annexes 105 • About the authors 105 • Abbreviations 106 • Overview of known insurgent groups 107 • Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament 114 • EU-US Declaration of Support for the People of Iraq, 26 June 2004 129 • Council Joint Action of 7 March 2005 on the European Union Integrated Rule of Law Mission for Iraq, EUJUST LEX 132 • Iraq International Conference, 22 June 2005 143 cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 5 Préface Nicole Gnesotto lus de deux ans après l’intervention américaine contre Saddam Hussein, l’Irak reste l’objet de toutes les inquiétudes : les élections Pdu 30 janvier 2005, la visite du président Bush en Europe quelques semaines plus tard avaient ouvert une fenêtre d’opportunité pour la sta- bilisation politique intérieure du pays et la mise en sourdine des profondes divergences occidentales issues de l’intervention militaire américaine en Irak. Six mois plus tard, la violence quotidienne, l’inflation du nombre des victimes, les introuvables processus de réconciliation politique, sur fond de reprise des activités terroristes internationales, alimentent les spéculations les plus catastrophiques sur l’avenir irakien. L’évolution de l’ensemble de la région, du Golfe à l’Afghanistan, de l’Iran au conflit israélo-palestinien, ne nourrit guère non plus l’optimisme sur l’avancée de la démocratie, le rétablissement des processus de paix, l’intégration économique et la réconciliation politique à l’échelle régionale. Plus que jamais, cette zone reste celle de toutes les inconnues et d’un risque majeur pour l’avenir de la stabilité internationale. Plus que jamais, les contextes politiques intérieurs, les rapports de force politique et/ou religieux, les héritages historiques nationaux, bref, les spécificités locales de chaque zone de crise doivent être analysées pour tenter de comprendre, et peut- être d’enrayer les différentes dynamiques destructrices à l’œuvre dans la région. A commencer par l’Irak. Au-delà des stratégies plus ou moins claires décidées par les acteurs extérieurs, l’analyse du terrain irakien, de ses com- posantes politiques, religieuses, ethniques, démographiques est un défi de plus en plus complexe mais de plus en plus indispensable pour tenter d’éva- luer, le plus objectivement possible, les scénarios de développements possi- bles de la crise irakienne. Et tel est bien l’objet de ce Cahier de Chaillot. Sous la responsabilité de Walter Posch, chargé de recherche à l’Institut, les meilleurs experts européens ont été sollicités pour tenter cette descente en profondeur dans les ressorts de la société irakienne : le nationalisme est-il plus structurant que les allégeances religieuses ou ethniques ? L’affronte- ment entre Chiites et Sunnites est-il la grille de lecture principale ? Quelles sont les bases des mouvements d’insurrection politique et/ou criminelle ? 5 cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 6 Préface Que veulent les Kurdes et quels sont les enjeux de la question du Kurdis- tan ? Comment la présence militaire américaine influence-t-elle cette alchimie irakienne ? Telles sont les questions, difficiles mais essentielles, auxquelles ce Cahier de Chaillot a choisi de donner la priorité sur les tra- ditionnelles grilles d’analyse stratégiques du conflit irakien. L’extrême fluidité des événements sur le terrain, l’imprévisibilité de la violence et de ses effets politiques, dans un contexte régional lui-même emprunt de multiples incertitudes, sont autant de facteurs qui rendent bien évidemment difficile une anticipation à peu près rationnelle de l’évo- lution de l’Irak. Pour autant, des échéances nationales ont été fixées – notamment l’adoption de la nouvelle Constitution avant le 15 août 2005 ; des engagements ont été pris par la communauté internationale, notam- ment l’Union européenne, en termes d’aide à la reconstruction politique et économique du pays. Aider les Irakiens à prévenir leur propre chaos est sans doute la seule tâche sensée que l’on puisse se fixer aujourd’hui. Sans illusions certes, mais sans renoncement. Paris, juillet 2005 6 cc79-Text.qxp 28/07/2005 15:36 Page 7 Introduction Looking into Iraq Walter Posch The political situation in Iraq continued to be a dominating factor in the international arena throughout the year 2004 and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Two years after George W. Bush declared the end of major combat operations in Iraq, the country is still far from stable and its further transformation towards a ‘secured, dem- ocratic, unified and prosperous country, at peace with itself, its neighbours and with the wider world’, as stated in the EU-US Dro- moland Castle declaration1 (which has been reiterated by the EU on several occasions since), seems far from being accomplished. A fierce insurgency is still hampering the reconstruction of the country’s infrastructure and the development of the political process. It is also engaging Coalition and Iraqi armed forces and ter- rorising the population. On the other hand, success, however lim- ited, cannot be denied: on 30 January 2005 Iraqis resisted terror threats and cast their ballots to elect a Transitional Assembly in most provinces of the country and a new government was inaugurated by the end of March 2005. The tasks are challenging, though, even with- out the precarious security situation: the National Assembly has to draft and vote on a constitution no later than 15 August 2005, a ref- erendum on the constitution is scheduled for 15 October 2005 and new elections will follow on 15 December 2005.2 In all this, interna- tional support is important, maybe essential, but Iraq’s destiny lies as much with the international community as it does with its people and its leaders’ ability to overcome ethnic and sectarian divisions and make Iraq a functioning state.
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