DOCSLIB.ORG

Iraq's Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Iraq's Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond IRAQ’S UNCERTAIN FUTURE: ELECTIONS AND BEYOND Middle East Report N°94 – 25 February 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. LESSONS FROM THE 2009 PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS ....................................... 2 A. STRIKING OUTCOME ....................................................................................................................2 B. LESSONS LEARNED ......................................................................................................................7 1. Maliki and his party .....................................................................................................................7 2. The main rival parties ..................................................................................................................8 3. Independents ..............................................................................................................................10 III. PRE-ELECTION POSITIONING................................................................................. 12 A. ELECTORAL POLITICS AND ALLIANCE FORMATION ...................................................................12 1. The Iraqi National Alliance........................................................................................................13 2. The State of Law list..................................................................................................................15 3. Two secular alliances: Unity of Iraq and Iraqiya......................................................................17 4. The Kurdistani Alliance.............................................................................................................18 B. THE ELECTORAL LAW CONTROVERSY .......................................................................................19 1. Amending the 2005 law.............................................................................................................19 2. The Hashimi veto.......................................................................................................................22 C. POLARISING POLITICS ................................................................................................................27 IV. FORMING A GOVERNMENT..................................................................................... 33 V. CONCLUSION................................................................................................................ 36 APPENDICES A. MAP OF IRAQ ...................................................................................................................................38 B. GOVERNORATES AND DISTRICTS .....................................................................................................39 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ....................................................................................40 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SINCE 2007 ..........41 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES................................................................................................43 Middle East Report N°94 25 February 2010 IRAQ’S UNCERTAIN FUTURE: ELECTIONS AND BEYOND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS As a rule, Iraq’s post-Saddam elections have tended to neither they – nor the underlying ethnic and confessional magnify pre-existing negative trends. The parliamentary fault line they reflected – are close to genuine resolution. polls to be held on 7 March are no exception. The focus on electoral politics is good, no doubt, but the run-up has The mid-January announcement by the Accountability highlighted deep-seated problems that threaten the fragile and Justice Commission (AJC) that it would disqualify recovery: recurring election-related violence; ethnic 511 candidates for alleged ties to the banned Baath party tensions over Kirkuk; the re-emergence of sectarianism; was the most disturbing. The decision was blindly adopted and blatant political manipulation of state institutions. The by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC); most egregious development was the decision to disqualify Prime Minister Maliki’s government proceeded to em- over 500 candidates, a dangerous, arbitrary step lacking brace it and then pressured the appeal panel to perform due process, yet endorsed by the Shiite ruling parties. a hasty and cursory review. Most appeals were denied. The Under normal circumstances, that alone might have suf- episode caused havoc, raising questions about the AJC’s ficed to discredit the elections. But these are not normal legal standing, the judiciary’s credibility, the electoral circumstances, and for the sake of Iraq’s stability, the commission’s legitimacy and ability to fairly administer elections must go on. At a minimum, however, the inter- the polls, and thus the election’s integrity as a whole – national community should ramp up its electoral moni- not least because the AJC’s leaders themselves are par- toring and define clear red lines that need to be respected liamentary candidates. A naked power play with sectar- if the results are to be considered legitimate. And it ian overtones in that its most prominent victims are Sunni should press the next government to seriously tackle Arabs, it also reopened old wounds and cast a troubling the issue – long-neglected yet never more critical – of light on Maliki, who only a year ago had won votes by national reconciliation. eschewing sectarian rhetoric and has pledged to stitch together a broad non-sectarian electoral alliance. Over the past year, there were grounds to believe that Iraq’s post-war wounds were healing and that the pri- Thankfully, there is little talk of boycott, as the spectre mary challenge had become one of state building. De- of 2005 – when Sunni Arabs shunned the polls and thus spite a spate of high-profile attacks in Baghdad and voluntarily disenfranchised themselves – looms heavy. lower-level ones elsewhere, violence was down. Politics That said, in the absence of an impartial internal monitor, took centre stage. The outcome of the January 2009 the international community – primarily the U.S., EU provincial elections was a setback to the more openly and UN – now has an even greater responsibility to en- sectarian parties and brought a change in local govern- sure that these flawed elections are damaged no further ment. Most significantly, perhaps, those elections marked and to clearly define the requirements for them to be the Sunni Arabs’ unambiguous acceptance of and entry considered legitimate. Iraqi and international observers into the political and institutional arena that they had once should be able to deploy freely to all polling stations and massively rejected and violently resisted. monitor both the vote and vote count. They should, in particular, observe the conduct of institutions and agen- But simmering conflicts were not long to come to a boil. cies whose impartial role will be critical in ensuring free Negotiations over an electoral law in the second half of and fair elections: the Supreme Court and IHEC, as well the year took far longer than anticipated, forcing a five- as the military and police. Blatant interference or mas- week election delay. The perennially difficult question sive fraud should be seen and stated as red lines that of Kirkuk’s administrative status, as well as Sunni Arab will force a review of how the international community concerns that refugees would not be fully represented, views a future government. further stood in the way. These finally were overcome with the help of external pressure and mediation but Iraq’s Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond Crisis Group Middle East Report N°94, 25 February 2010 Page ii That leaves what happens after the elections, assuming 3. Reform the Accountability and Justice Commission they pass this threshold. The question then will be as a matter of priority by setting clear criteria and whether the incoming government is able and willing to procedures embedded in law, and providing de- address the country’s numerous political deficiencies, from Baathification with a time horizon of a maximum sectarianism to politicised institutions and much in be- of two years, at which point all remaining files should tween. Serious work toward national reconciliation is long be closed and the effort terminated. overdue. This time, forming a coalition government and holding it up as an example of national unity will not To Members of the International Community suffice. There will have to be meaningful progress on (notably the UN, EU and U.S.): opening up political space, increasing cross-sectarian par- 4. Play an assertive role in ensuring the elections are ticipation and improving transparency and accountability. free, fair, transparent and inclusive. Reform of de-Baathification should be a priority, at least 5. Define clearly and publicly what constitute red lines to set clear criteria and procedures embedded in law; the that, if crossed, would discredit the elections, notably: process should also be given a time horizon of a maxi- mum of two years, at which point all remaining files a) discouraging voters from reaching polling stations should be closed and the effort terminated. In this endeav- for lack of security; our, it will remain critical for members of the international b) obstructing their
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq
    December 2012 Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ Photo Credit: Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq protest in Kadhimiya, Baghdad, September 2012. Photo posted on Twitter by Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. ©2012 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2012 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. http://www.understandingwar.org Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ ABOUT THE AUTHOR Sam Wyer is a Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, where he focuses on Iraqi security and political matters. Prior to joining ISW, he worked as a Research Intern at AEI’s Critical Threats Project where he researched Iraqi Shi’a militia groups and Iranian proxy strategy. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Middlebury College in Vermont and studied Arabic at Middlebury’s school in Alexandria, Egypt. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. ISW is committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks
    Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs March 29, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS21968 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks Summary Iraq’s political system, the result of a U.S.-supported election process, has been increasingly characterized by peaceful competition, as well as by attempts to form cross-sectarian alliances. However, ethnic and factional infighting continues, sometimes using key levers of power and undemocratic means. This was in evidence in the successful efforts by Shiite Arab political leaders to disqualify some prominent Sunni Arab candidates in the March 7, 2010, national elections for the next Council of Representatives (COR, parliament), which will form the next government. Election-related violence occurred before and during the election, although not at levels of earlier years or at a level to significantly affect voting, except perhaps for Baghdad city. With all votes counted, although not certified, the cross-sectarian “Iraqiyya” slate of former Prime Minister Iyad al-Allawi unexpectedly has gained a plurality of 91 of the 325 COR seats up for election. Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s slate came in a close second, with two fewer seats, and a rival Shiite coalition was a distant third with 70. The main Kurdish parties, again allied, won 43. Allawi’s slate had been expected to get the first opportunity to put together a majority coalition to form a government. However, Maliki and other Shiite parties—opposing what they claim is the mostly Sunni Arab base of the Allawi slate—are in extensive discussions to put together a coalition that would be able to determine the next government.
    [Show full text]
  • Blood and Ballots the Effect of Violence on Voting Behavior in Iraq
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Göteborgs universitets publikationer - e-publicering och e-arkiv DEPTARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BLOOD AND BALLOTS THE EFFECT OF VIOLENCE ON VOTING BEHAVIOR IN IRAQ Amer Naji Master’s Thesis: 30 higher education credits Programme: Master’s Programme in Political Science Date: Spring 2016 Supervisor: Andreas Bågenholm Words: 14391 Abstract Iraq is a very diverse country, both ethnically and religiously, and its political system is characterized by severe polarization along ethno-sectarian loyalties. Since 2003, the country suffered from persistent indiscriminating terrorism and communal violence. Previous literature has rarely connected violence to election in Iraq. I argue that violence is responsible for the increases of within group cohesion and distrust towards people from other groups, resulting in politicization of the ethno-sectarian identities i.e. making ethno-sectarian parties more preferable than secular ones. This study is based on a unique dataset that includes civil terror casualties one year before election, the results of the four general elections of January 30th, and December 15th, 2005, March 7th, 2010 and April 30th, 2014 as well as demographic and socioeconomic indicators on the provincial level. Employing panel data analysis, the results show that Iraqi people are sensitive to violence and it has a very negative effect on vote share of secular parties. Also, terrorism has different degrees of effect on different groups. The Sunni Arabs are the most sensitive group. They change their electoral preference in response to the level of violence. 2 Acknowledgement I would first like to thank my advisor Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • Is It Unity They Want, Or Capitulation? by Steve Bakke December 18, 2020
    If you don’t regularly receive my reports, request a free subscription at [email protected] ! Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/@BakkeSteve and receive links to my posts and more! Visit my website at http://www.myslantonthings.com ! Is it unity they want, or capitulation? By Steve Bakke December 18, 2020 “It’s time to put the anger and harsh rhetoric behind us and come together as a nation……I pledge to be a president who seeks not to divide but unify……to unite us here at home.” That’s Joe Biden proclaiming unity soon after election day. I’ll again express my concern that this was probably more of a warning than a peace offering. Before I conclude on that speculation let’s look at what others of his flock have been saying lately. Are they friendly and inviting? Do they feel warm and fuzzy? Most quotes are from after election day. Hold on to your seat! • ‘We don’t do things like those chumps out there with the microphones, those Trump guys.” – Joe Biden himself speaking at a small gathering of supporters. • “Hang your head in shame.” – CNN’s Don Lemon addressing republican legislators who supported Trump’s efforts to get the Supreme Court to review constitutional issues regarding the election. • “It’s not enough to just send Donald Trump packing, or even just to repair the damage he’s done. We’ve got to unrig and rebuild the systems that made his rise possible…” – Elizabeth Warren. • ‘I used to wonder how could the people of Germany allow Hitler to exist.
    [Show full text]
  • 5. Kurdish Tribes
    Country Policy and Information Note Iraq: Blood feuds Version 1.0 August 2017 Preface This note provides country of origin information (COI) and policy guidance to Home Office decision makers on handling particular types of protection and human rights claims. This includes whether claims are likely to justify the granting of asylum, humanitarian protection or discretionary leave and whether – in the event of a claim being refused – it is likely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under s94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002. Decision makers must consider claims on an individual basis, taking into account the case specific facts and all relevant evidence, including: the policy guidance contained with this note; the available COI; any applicable caselaw; and the Home Office casework guidance in relation to relevant policies. Country Information COI in this note has been researched in accordance with principles set out in the Common EU [European Union] Guidelines for Processing Country of Origin Information (COI) and the European Asylum Support Office’s research guidelines, Country of Origin Information report methodology, namely taking into account its relevance, reliability, accuracy, objectivity, currency, transparency and traceability. All information is carefully selected from generally reliable, publicly accessible sources or is information that can be made publicly available. Full publication details of supporting documentation are provided in footnotes. Multiple sourcing is normally used to ensure that the information is accurate, balanced and corroborated, and that a comprehensive and up-to-date picture at the time of publication is provided. Information is compared and contrasted, whenever possible, to provide a range of views and opinions.
    [Show full text]
  • The Crime of Genocide and International Law: a Perspective on the 1915 Events Erdoğan İşcan *
    GİFGRF 23 April 2021 The Crime of Genocide and International Law: A Perspective on the 1915 Events Erdoğan İşcan * * Ambassador (R) Erdoğan İşcan is Member of the United Nations Committee Against Torture. He also teaches international human rights law at Istanbul Kültür University. He served as Ambassador to Ukraine, South Korea (also accredited to North Korea) and the Council of Europe in Strasbourg. He is currently a member of the Global Relations Forum. The Genocide Convention There is unquestionable consensus on the fact that genocide is the gravest crime against humanity. The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (hereinafter the Genocide Convention or the Convention), adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 9 December 1948 and entered into force on12 January 1951, sets specific legal standards with a view to defining and identifying the acts which may amount to the crime of genocide. Currently, 152 Member States of the United Nations are parties to the Convention. There are also 41 signatures not followed by ratifications. It would thus be safe to assert that the Convention enjoys universal recognition and it is a legally binding component of international law. Turkey acceded to the Convention on 31 July 1950 without any reservation. Many States have ratified the Convention with a number of reservations. One example is the United States that ratified the Convention on 25 November 1988 with two “reservations”, five “understandings”, and one “declaration”. Article I of the Convention establishes genocide as an international crime “whether committed in time of peace or in time of war”, inviting the States to prevent and punish this crime.
    [Show full text]
  • Operation Inherent Resolve Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress
    OPERATION INHERENT RESOLVE LEAD INSPECTOR GENERAL REPORT TO THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS JANUARY 1, 2021–MARCH 31, 2021 FRONT MATTER ABOUT THIS REPORT A 2013 amendment to the Inspector General Act established the Lead Inspector General (Lead IG) framework for oversight of overseas contingency operations and requires that the Lead IG submit quarterly reports to the U.S. Congress on each active operation. The Chair of the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency designated the DoD Inspector General (IG) as the Lead IG for Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). The DoS IG is the Associate IG for the operation. The USAID IG participates in oversight of the operation. The Offices of Inspector General (OIG) of the DoD, the DoS, and USAID are referred to in this report as the Lead IG agencies. Other partner agencies also contribute to oversight of OIR. The Lead IG agencies collectively carry out the Lead IG statutory responsibilities to: • Develop a joint strategic plan to conduct comprehensive oversight of the operation. • Ensure independent and effective oversight of programs and operations of the U.S. Government in support of the operation through either joint or individual audits, inspections, investigations, or evaluations. • Report quarterly to Congress and the public on the operation and on activities of the Lead IG agencies. METHODOLOGY To produce this quarterly report, the Lead IG agencies submit requests for information to the DoD, the DoS, USAID, and other Federal agencies about OIR and related programs. The Lead IG agencies also gather data and information from other sources, including official documents, congressional testimony, policy research organizations, press conferences, think tanks, and media reports.
    [Show full text]
  • Informing the Blue Helmets: the United States, Un Peacekeeping Operations, and the Role of Intelligence
    INFORMING THE BLUE HELMETS INFORMING THE BLUE HELMETS: THE UNITED STATES, UN PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS, AND THE ROLE OF INTELLIGENCE Robert E. Rehbein Centre for International Relations, Queen’s University Kingston, Ontario, Canada 1996 Canadian Cataloguing in Publication Data Rehbein, Robert E., 1959– Informing the blue helmets : the United States, UN peace operations, and the role of intelligence (Martello papers, ISSN 1183-3661 ; 16) ISBN 0-88911-705-5 1. United Nations – United States. 2. Intelligence service – United States. 3. United Nations – Armed Forces. I. Queen’s University (Kingston, Ont.). Centre for International Relations. II. Title. III. Series. JX1977.2.U5RA 1996 341.2’373 C96-930235-5 © Copyright 1996 The Martello Papers The Queen’s University Centre for International Relations (QCIR) is pleased to present the sixteenth in its series of security studies, the Martello Papers. Taking their name from the distinctive towers built during the nineteenth century to defend Kingston, Ontario, these papers cover a wide range of topics and issues relevant to international strategic relations of today. Over the past several years, as peacekeeping activity has become more substan- tial in Europe and the Americas, the Centre has devoted increasing attention to it. The experience of peacekeepers in complex post-Cold War conflicts has under- lined the importance of intelligence capabilities in peacekeeping. Given the dearth of in-house intelligence resources in the United Nations system, it is frequently assumed that peacekeepers must rely to a considerable extent on national intelli- gence gathering capabilities, and notably those of the United States. This Martello Paper, by Robert Rehbein of the United States Air Force, addresses the question of US intelligence support for UN peace operations.
    [Show full text]
  • Country of Origin Information Iraq
    COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION IRAQ United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) October 2005 This report has been produced by UNHCR on the basis of information obtained from a variety of publicly available sources, analyses and comments. The purpose of the report is to serve as a reference for a breadth of country of origin information and thereby assists, inter alia, in the asylum determination process and when assessing the feasibility of returns to Iraq in safety and dignity. The information contained does not purport to be exhaustive with regard to conditions in the country surveyed, and incomplete, inaccurate or incorrect information cannot be ruled out. The inclusion of information in this report does not constitute an endorsement of the information or views of third parties. Neither does such information necessarily represent statements of policy or views of UNHCR or the United Nations. In particular the use of ethnic-sectarian terms such as ‘Shiite’, ‘Sunni’ or ‘Kurd’ does not constitute an endorsement of sectarianism but merely reflects the current realities on the ground (i.e. these groups should not be considered homogenous entities). ii Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................ III LIST OF ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 1 A. INTRODUCTION
    [Show full text]
  • Kurds Kidnapped the Day While Maintaining the Ban on Its Civil Servants
    INSTITUT KURDDE PARIS E Information and liaison bulletin N°425 AUGUST 2020 The publication of this Bulletin enjoys a subsidy from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Culture & City of Paris ______________ This bulletin is issued in French and English Price per issue : France: 6 € — Abroad : 7,5 € Annual subscribtion (12 issues) France : 60 € — Elsewhere : 75 € Monthly review Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tel. : 01-48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01-48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: [email protected] Information and liaison bulletin Kurdish Institute of Paris Bulletin N° 425 August 2020 • IRAQ: TWO OFFICERS OF THE IRAQI BORDER GUARDS KILLED BY A TURKISH DRONE • ROJAVA: KIDNAPPING, TORTURE, RAPE, MURDER... EVIDENCE OF THE CRIMES OF THE TURKISH OCCUPATION FORCES IS ACCUMULATING • TURKEY: EXACTIONS AGAINST WOMEN ARE MULTIPLE • IRAN: MASS TWITTER CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE ASSASSINATION OF KOLBARS, CALL FOR THE ACQUITTAL OF A KURDISH TEACHER • KURDISH LANGUAGE, PUBLICATIONS IRAQ: TWO OFFICERS OF THE IRAQI BORDER GUARDS KILLED BY A TURKISH DRONE ince the reopening of the to the Region from several Health called on cured patients to borders with Iran last countries, while conversely, donate their plasma for patients May, both Iraq and Turkey stopped flights to the developing severe forms of the Kurdistan are Region. Passengers leaving the infection. After more than twenty experiencing a dramatic Region must show a negative cases appeared, two villages in S increase in the figures of COVID test of less than 48 hours Akre district (Dohuk) were placed the pandemic..
    [Show full text]
  • Sectarianism in the MENA Region
    DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT WORKSHOP Sectarianism in the Middle East ABSTRACT Sectarian conflict and polarisation has become a key feature of Middle East politics in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings of 2011. This workshop looked at some of the key drivers of this, such as the troubled legacy of foreign intervention, state failure, regional rivalries between Saudi Arabia, Iran and others, ruling strategies of authoritarian regimes as well as the spread of identity and sect-based political movements. With in-depth analysis of the two key arenas of sectarian conflict in the contemporary Middle East, Syria and Iraq, and a paper on the consequences of state collapse, this paper also makes recommendations on how the EU could help reduce sectarian tensions. EP/EXPO/B/AFET/2016/01 EN July 2017 - PE 603.843 © European Union, 2017 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies This paper was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs. English-language manuscript was completed on 14/07/2017. Printed in Belgium. Authors: Dr Toby MATTHIESEN, Senior Research Fellow in the International Relations of the Middle East, St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford, UK Dr Simon MABON, Lecturer in International Relations, Director of the Richardson Institute, University of Lancaster, UK. Dr Raphaël LEFÈVRE, Rank-Manning Research Fellow in Social Sciences, University of Oxford, UK. Dr Renad MANSOUR, Academy Fellow, Chatham House, London, UK. Official Responsible: Kirsten JONGBERG Editorial Assistant: Györgyi MÁCSAI Feedback of all kind is welcome. Please write to: [email protected]. To obtain copies, please send a request to: [email protected] This paper will be published on the European Parliament's online database, 'Think tank'.
    [Show full text]
  • Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region
    KURDISTAN RISING? CONSIDERATIONS FOR KURDS, THEIR NEIGHBORS, AND THE REGION Michael Rubin AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region Michael Rubin June 2016 American Enterprise Institute © 2016 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any man- ner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. American Enterprise Institute 1150 17th St. NW Washington, DC 20036 www.aei.org. Cover image: Grand Millennium Sualimani Hotel in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan, by Diyar Muhammed, Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons. Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Who Are the Kurds? 5 2. Is This Kurdistan’s Moment? 19 3. What Do the Kurds Want? 27 4. What Form of Government Will Kurdistan Embrace? 56 5. Would Kurdistan Have a Viable Economy? 64 6. Would Kurdistan Be a State of Law? 91 7. What Services Would Kurdistan Provide Its Citizens? 101 8. Could Kurdistan Defend Itself Militarily and Diplomatically? 107 9. Does the United States Have a Coherent Kurdistan Policy? 119 Notes 125 Acknowledgments 137 About the Author 139 iii Executive Summary wo decades ago, most US officials would have been hard-pressed Tto place Kurdistan on a map, let alone consider Kurds as allies. Today, Kurds have largely won over Washington.
    [Show full text]