Prediction of Climate Extremes for Decision-making

Modeling Science, Technology & Innovation Conference [Washington DC, May 17, 2016]

V. Ramaswamy

Director, NOAA/ Oceans and Atmospheric Research/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Weather/ Climate events have had widespread impacts on society

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 2 Changing Conditions Accurate, Regional Predictions/Projections: Societal Information across Diverse Sectors

Life and Aviation Maritime Space Forests Property Operations

Emergency Commerce Ports Energy Hydropower Management

Reservoir Infrastructure Construction Agriculture Recreation Control

Ecosystems Health Environment Careful preparations are required to seize opportunities, and minimize risks and vulnerabilities “End-to-End” Observations, Monitoring, and Modeling  Weather-to-Climate Predictions

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 4 Alignment of Strategy

OAR Strategic Plan

Research Research

Development Development

Transition Transition CLIMATE CLIMATE WEATHER OCEANS COASTS

NOAA Research: Serving Society Through Science 5 What information is needed for decisions? Timely, credible, useful - across all time scales

e.g. Disaster e.g. Crop e.g. Infrastructure management Selection, Water development planning and management response Mid-Range Predictions

Predictability

WEATHER CLIMATE 0 days 15 days 30 days 2 mo 3 mo

Public Gridded Lead Time Forecasts (out to 7 days) Temp/Precip Outlooks (1 & 3 Months)

Hurricane Track Forecasts (out to 5 days) 7 Prediction of Extremes: It is Math and requires Computations!

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Elements of the Prediction System

1. GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS Atmosphere and ocean observations across globe.

2. DYNAMICAL MODEL Solving mathematical formulations Image sources: NOAA/PMEL and of the processes in the coupled Argo.ucsd.edu atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system, using NOAA’s High-Performance Computers.

3. DATA ASSIMILATION Combines sparse observations with model, to estimate present state, using the dynamical model.

4. ANALYSIS & DISSEMINATION Output from predictions, produce “useful” information, communicating predictions. Tornado warning lead-times have not improved in 10 years!

Average = 13 minutes

Appear to have reached the limit for our current technologies and science….

NSSL developed the basis for the NWS’ NEXRAD (WSR-88D) radar. Between 1992 and 2004, NEXRAD produced a societal benefit >$3 billion

(vs. $1.7B NEXRAD cost) 3 Next Generation High Impact Weather Warnings (FACETs* Concept)

Ve ry • Detailed forecast tornado Close! probabilities (colored areas) provided by NSSL’s Warn-on- Forecast ensemble

• More advanced notice using Over- rapidly updated models and Advanced less overwarning compared to warned standard warnings Notice

• Refined, user-specific info provided on modern Be technology (updated every 2 Alert! minutes)

• Driven by research in meteorological and social Take science Cover Now! • Benefits to NWS, FEMA, Tornado Track private sector developers, public safety *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats Increasing number of model gridcells improves ability to simulate rainfall over land in North America (and globally)

Low-res. Model (2007) Obs.

High-res. Very High-res. Model (2012) Model (2015) (costs 24x) (costs 144x) Model Projections of Heat Waves Ratio: 2041-2070 to 1971-2000 Climate Change Scenario (RCP 4.5)

Duration # Events/yr # Heat wave days/yr Input  Midwest 1.5 2.7 4.0 Natl Climate Northern Plains 1.3 3.8 4.8 Assessment Pacific Northwest 1.3 2.4 3.0 SE Canada 1.2 2.5 2.9 Texas-Oklahoma 1.8 2.6 4.5 Mid-Atlantic 1.4 2.7 3.8 California 1.9 2.3 4.3 Gulf Coast 1.2 3.2 4.0 Southwest 2.2 2.9 6.4 Wyoming/Montana/ 2.2 2.6 5.7 Idaho The North American Multi-Model Ensemble NMME - An unprecedented multi-model system to improve seasonal climate prediction

• Based on leading climate Developing ENSO forecast Winter 2014 – 2mo lead models in the US and Canada

• Research supported by NOAA and other US agencies.

• Participating Organizations • NOAA/NCEP • NOAA/GFDL • NASA/GMAO • NCAR • Environment Canada • U. Miami • IRI • COLA

NMME-based Drought Prediction NMME is being applied as a core element of a drought prediction system

Standard Precipitation Index – 3 month outlook

SPI: A statistical method for calculating rainfall anomalies. (Real-time verification of SPI, as well as precipitation and temperature, is found on the Climate Prediction Center Website: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) Vulnerability + Exposure interact with climate change to produce added Risk

Exposure:

Being in the wrong place at the wrong time

RISK Vulnerability: The predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected

16 Growth in exposure to current 100-yr coastal flooding by 2070 – all 3 factors matter

Hanson at al Climatic Change 2011 Modest amount of sea level rise can yield a huge impact

SIRR 2013 Agency Roles and Responsibilities

DoD (Navy/AF) NOAA Operations: Global tactical and strategic support Operations: US, territories, treaty support. (including to DoS for National Security Planning) Weather: land (US), coastal oceans/fisheries Weather: Ship, aircraft, installation, deployment Climate: global atmosphere, oceans, land, support including targeting cryosphere, stratosphere Ocean: surface to bottom globally world-wide observations Research to further thatIntersection: mission Land: trafficability and global coupled air-ocean-landNear--icespace: communications model capability Research to further these missions DoE encompassing processes in tropical-mid- NASA Research: Climate modeling tolatitude determine-polar impacts, teleconnections Climate modeling that are to investigate climate sensitivity possible mitigation of climate change.key to Requiresprediction of high-impactIRT multiple forcings Satellite remote sensing coverage/new data integrated air, ocean, land,events ice andover the U.S. and around the biogeochemical capabilities types/data assimilation techniques for extended world range prediction

NSF Discovery-driven research in geosciences (air, ocean, land, ice) plus science drivers, which include data assimilation, predictability science, and observation network design and utility, for NSCI- driven next generation HPC architectures The Rising Demand for Climate Information COASTS COMMERCE RECREATION

ECOSYSTEMS

THERE IS AN URGENT AND GROWING NEED FOR RELIABLE, TRUSTED, TRANSPARENT, AND TIMELY CLIMATE INFORMATION ACROSS ALL SECTORS OF OUR ECONOMY. PRIVATE SECTOR FARMING

HYDROPOWER HEALTH

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Thank you for your attention!

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory