Marine Forecasting Course - 2013
Introduction to Ship Rout(e)ing
Dr. Thomas Bruns Deutscher Wetterdienst Hamburg
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] Outline
A short History of Ship Routing Ocean Waves and other Hazards Climate & Weather Navigation Route Optimization Ship Performance Onboard & Shore-based Routing
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 2 A Short History of Ship Routing
1855 Maury published his Sailing Directions Read More : http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/516637/Sailing-Directions 1912 RMS Titanic sank on April 15th
1914 "International Convention for the Safety Of Life At Sea" was initiated.
1955 First commercial Ship Routing Services in USA
1959 Foundation of the „International Maritime Organization“ (IMO)
1959 Ship Routing Service launched at German Weather Service (DWD)
1974 SOLAS 74 : The convention was updated and amended
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 3 The SOLAS‘74 - Convention
Chapter V - Safety of navigation
Chapter V identifies certain navigation safety services which should be provided by Contracting Governments and sets forth provisions of an operational nature applicable in general to all ships on all voyages. This is in contrast to the Convention as a whole, which only applies to certain classes of ship engaged on international voyages.
The subjects covered include the maintenance of meteorological services for ships; the ice patrol service; routing of ships; and the maintenance of search and rescue services.
Read More: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOLAS_Convention
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 4 The Global Maritime Distress and Safety System
The German vessel MS „München“ sank in a severe northatlantic storm in December 1978.
GMDSS was developed by IMO in 1979
Components of GMDSS (among others) are: – EPIRB (Emergency position-indicating radio beacon) – NAVTEX (system for instantly distributing maritime safety information) – INMARSAT (telephone, telex and high-speed data services)
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 5 Casualities 1995-1999
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 6 Casualities in 2008
Number of Casualties by Region and Type - 2008
Indian Austral- Sub- Middle North South Cause Africa Asia asia Europe Continent East America Other America Total Collision (vessels) 6 203 3 203 15 14 58 9 9 520 Contact (eg. Harbour wall) 2 26 4 171 2 3 77 7 3 295 Fire/explosion 7 34 6 105 5 5 46 18 6 232 Foundered (sunk, submerged) 7 44 4 44 3 3 31 8 3 147 Hull damage 3 5 2 28 2 4 39 3 6 92 Labour dispute 1 3 1 5 Machinery damage/failure 29 70 16 425 7 25 173 41 15 801 Miscellaneous 10 20 11 134 6 4 68 21 8 282 Missing/overdue 1 1 Piracy 33 8 1 42 1 85 War loss/damage 1 1 Wrecked/stranded 10 47 13 262 4 19 113 19 14 501 Total 108 458 59 1376 45 119 606 126 65 2962
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 7 Hazards in Stormy Weather
Rough sea (storm intensity and duration)
Cross sea ( in the vicinity of tropical storms in particular)
Extreme high (and steep) single waves („Rogue Waves“)
Reduced visibility
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 8 Ocean Waves
The Wave Spectrum
Significant wave height (Hs) = – the mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves
(H1/3 definition for „trained observers“) – four times the square root of the zeroth-order moment of the wave
spectrum (Hmo)
Rogue (freak) wave = higher than twice Hs
Frequency distribution of wave height
of waves within a tim a interval withinofwaves
Number
Wave height
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 9 Other Hazards
Icebergs (growlers) Sea Ice Freezing spray (superstructure icing)
High swell waves (resonance effects) Fog Cold upwelling (may affect cargo) Currents (may affect speed and heading, interaction with waves) Piracy
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 10 Hazards in the North Pacific Winter
Superstructure icing
Superstructure icing ice Primary storm track e
Secondary area Main area of of cyclogenesis cyclogenesis Kuroshio current Heavy NW-ly swells
Northeast monsoon Greatest potential Tehuantepecers for tropical development
Courtesy of Weather News International
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 11 Hazards in the North Atlantic Winter
ICE
Primary storm track Iceberg s Super- Secondary structure area of icing cyclogenesis Mistrals Main area of cyclogenesis Heavy NW-ly swells
Gulf Stream current
Courtesy of Weather News International
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 12 Wave Height Percentiles
95% - Quantiles of Significant Wave Height
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 13 Planning a Route
Mission Take cargo from A to B
Strategy Climatology Requirements Choose / modify the route Navigability Environment Safety Operation Rentability Short Term Choose Speed and Course Habitability (Comfort) Weather Variability
Ship Performance
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 14 Climate Navigation
Climate routes reflect the seasonal variation of
Tropical and extra-tropical storm tracks Monsoon regimes Sailing Ships Areas of high swell From : Scharnow et.al. Maritime Wetterkunde Sea ice cover Prevailing ocean currents
Steam Ships
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 15 Weather Navigation
Two basic strategies :
First follow the climate route and deviate if the weather becomes better or worse
First follow the shortest track and deviate if the weather becomes worse
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 16 The Climate Route
From Florida to the English Channel via Abaco and Azores 4082 nm
Rhumblines
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 17 Shortest Track : The Great Circle
Great Circle
From Florida to the English Channel via Florida Strait 3778 nm
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 18 Weather Navigation
4072nm
Start on great circle, fall back to climate route
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 19 Regional Features
Making use of Gulf stream in the Florida Strait
Traffic Separation in the Singapore Strait
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 20 Tactical Weather Routing (Meteorological Navigation)
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 21 The Marine Meteorological Office in Hamburg
Ocean Wave Forecast Ship Routing Consultancy for the Offshore Industry Advisory onboard German Research Vessels Antarctic Flight Weather Guidance Analyses of Maritime Accidents Regatta Guidance Online Weather Information Systems Research Projects
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 22 Classical Shore-based Routing
Environment Weather Maps (Model Data + Observations) (Synoptic Overview) Wind, Waves, Currents, Sea Ice, Icebergs, Tropical Storms
Meteorologist Routing Software (Dead Reckoning)
Initial Recommendation Navigational Maps Frequent Updates (Route Monitoring)
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 23 Routing for Coastal Shipping
From Emden to Brunsbüttel
Sign. Wave Height
Swell Height Ship speed + course
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 24 Text Messages
From: German Meteorological Service (DWD), Marine Met Office Weather Ship Routing WV 13, phone/fax ++69 69 8062 6187/6184 issued: 29.09.04 11 UTC To 1. MV Example 0582 999777888 Contents of a Route recommendation 2. Shipping Company Text Weather situation and development Ref.: Routing/track weather forecast Waypoints of the recommended route Alternate route(s) Synoptic situation and development: Forecast weather enroute Low 29./00UTC 998 central Japan moving east but slowly, weakening, 01./00UTc 1004 37N145E, then filling. Large high 29./00UTC 1034 45N160E moving east, Additional notes on hydrographical hazards 01./00UTC 1035 45n180E, moving south furtheron, 03./00UTC 1032 40N180E. Low 3./00UTC 1002 45N155W moving south. No tropical storms reported. Grafics On request : maps of surface pressure, wind, waves We therefore recommend great circle to waypoint 4630N164E, then rhumbline to Cape Flattery. Estimated average speed 24.6kt Media E-Mail Forecast : Fax 29.09.: East to southeast abt. 4, sea near 2 m SMS 30.09.: veering south increasing up to 7, Phone sea 2 to 3 m, incoming southerly swell 3 to 4 m 01.10.: South to southwest 7, sea 3 to 4 m Telex 02.10.: southwest decreasing 6, sea 2 to 3 m 03.10.: veering northwest 5, decreasing 3 , sea still 2 to 3 m Monitoring and updated recommendations 04.10.: becoming southeast 4 to 5, sea 2 m
Ships will be monitored enroute by their consultant with regard to NOTE: In case of significant change of weather, you will Unexpected weather changes receive further recommendation enroute. Please send your Changing weather forecasts daily noon-observation to dwd in standard weather observation code Deviations from the recommended route (WMO-code) or at least in the following form under code "Routing" :
Recommendations will be updated if necessary, however, at least every 3 days. A: Date and Time (local time and UTC) B: Position (e.g: Pos. 55.03n 11.30w) Ships are requested to send their position and observed weather every day. C: Wind in BFT (e.g: Wind NW 5) D: Sea and Swell in m (e.g: Sea 3m, Swell SW 4m)
E: Significant weather (e.g: sign.Wx Thunderstorms).
Our office is on duty around the clock: telex: 211 291 hadwd Fax: +49-69-8062-6184 E-mail: routing(AT)dwd.de
good voyage Erdmann/DWD Marine Meteorological Service
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 25 Other Providers of Shore-based Routing
http://www.metworksltd.com/services/fwr.htm
http://www.oceansltd.com/route.html
http://www.wriwx.com/cargo/home.php
http://oceanweatherservices.com/
These are just a few examples! Google for more!
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 26 Route Optimization
. Minimum cost (all ships) . Minimum fuel (freight liner). . Minimum time (tramp shipping)
. Best weather (cruise ships) Safety and comfort of personnel and passengers Need to take a chance for maintenance work at sea
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 27 The Costs of a Shipping Mission
Fuel consumption, variable fuel prices Employees (salaries, flights, hotels etc) Insurance rates Charges for pilots, water gates etc. Demurrage (in case of early arrival) Unpredictable events (damages, traffic jam, strike at destination etc)
The true costs are quite difficult to estimate!
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 28 Route Optimization
tz Minimize the cost function J = A(X,h,n,t)dt + B( t z ,t s ) t0 A cost per time B late/early arrival penalty X ship position h heading n propeller rotation
Arrival time t z = f( X 0 ..X z , h0 ..hz , n0 ..nz )
Ship must not hit land, sea ice, icebergs, shoals Traffic separation zones must be considered Side Conditions: The propeller rotation must not exceed certain upper and lower limits Ship motions must not exceed acceptable limits
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 29 The most simple Solution
Time Optimization :
t z Minimize the cost function J = A(X,h, n, t)dt + B( t z ,t s ) t0 A = 1 B = 0 Speed vs. Wave height / direction
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 30 Time Optimization using the Isochrone Method
Isochrones are lines of equal arrival time
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 31 Time Optimization using Isochrones
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 32 Time Optimization using Isochrones
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 33 Hindcast of Time Optimum Routes
Time Optimum Routes in the Northpacific Wintertime
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 34 Westbound Route Climatology for a Gas Tanker
Winter Summer
Westbound
Time loss Eastbound (relating to calm conditions)
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 35 Ship Performance : Propulsion
In order to gain a certain speed, machine and propeller have to work against the ship‘s resistance.
Total resistance
= Frictional resistance ~ shipspeed2 + Wave making resistance + Wind resistance ~ windspeed2 + Wave resistance = f (wave spectrum)
A large number of ship, propeller and machine characteristics have to be considered to calculate the speed.
Google : Ship resistance and propulsion
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 36 Hazardous Events
Slamming
Parametric rolling (may occur in following or heading seas)
Supercritical accelerations / bending stresses Green water on deck Propeller emerging Psychological constraints Voluntary speed reduction
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 37 Safe operating speed and heading
http://www.jeppesenmarine.com/files/whitepapers/VoyageOptimizationversusWeatherRouting1.pdf
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 38 Sophisticated Optimization Techniques
Linear Programming (Kantorovich, 1939) Dynamic Programming (Bellman, 1957) Branch & Bound (Land & Doig, 1960)
Optimization using Dynamic Programming
http://www.jeppesenmarine.com/files/whitepapers/VoyageOptimizationversusWeatherRouting1.pdf
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 39 Onboard Routing Software
http://www.awtworldwide.com/products/
http://ww1.jeppesen.com/marine/commercial/vvos/commercial-marine-product.jsp
http://www.ocean-systems.com/VOSS.htm
These are just a few examples! Google for more!
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 40 Ensembles of Optimum Routes
Considering the uncertainties of the medium range weather forecast (>3 days) by using an Ensemble Prediction System.
Cntr T639 Cluster 1 OPR T1279 Cluster 1
H L H L L
L L
H H ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS Monday 11 October 2010 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+120 VT: Saturday 16 October 2010 12UTC Surface: Mean sea level pressure H H
H L ECMWFMSLP (contour every 5hPa) and Temperature - EPSat 850hPa (only-6 and16 isolines are plotted) L H
Member 1 Cluster 1 Member 2 Cluster 1 Member 3 Cluster 1 Member 4 Cluster 1 Member 5 Cluster 1 Member 6 Cluster 1 Member 7 Cluster 1 Member 8 Cluster 1 Member 9 Cluster 1 Member 10 Cluster 1
H H L L H H L H L L L L L L L L H L L L L L L H H H H -6 H L H H H H 1005 H 1015 1000 H H H H 1005 L 1000 L H H H H H H H H H H H H L L L H H H H H H L H H H
Member 11 Cluster 1 Member 12 Cluster 1 Member 13 Cluster 1 Member 14 Cluster 1 Member 15 Cluster 1 Member 16 Cluster 1 Member 17 Cluster 1 Member 18 Cluster 1 Member 19 Cluster 1 Member 20 Cluster 1
H H L H L H L L L L L L L H H L L L L L 1010 L H L H L L H 1005 H L H
1005 H H H H 1010 1015 H H H H L H 1005 L L 1015 L H H H L H L H H H H H H H L H L H L L H H L H H H H H 1010 H H H
Member 21 Cluster 1 Member 22 Cluster 1 Member 23 Cluster 1 Member 24 Cluster 1 Member 25 Cluster 1 Member 26 Cluster 1 Member 27 Cluster 1 Member 28 Cluster 1 Member 29 Cluster 1 Member 30 Cluster 1
H H L L L H H H L L L L L L L L L L H L H L L L L H L H H H H 1015 H H H 1010 1015 H H H L L H L 1010 H L 1010 L H H H H H H H H H H L H L L H H H H H H H H H H H
Member 31 Cluster 1 Member 32 Cluster 1 Member 33 Cluster 1 Member 34 Cluster 1 Member 35 Cluster 1 Member 36 Cluster 1 Member 37 Cluster 1 Member 38 Cluster 1 Member 39 Cluster 1 Member 40 Cluster 1
H L L L H L L H L H L L L L H L L L H L L L 1005 L H H H L H H H H H H H L 1005 L H 1005 H 1000 L L L L H L H
1010 H H H H H H H H H L H L L L H L H H H H H H H H H
Member 41 Cluster 1 Member 42 Cluster 1 Member 43 Cluster 1 Member 44 Cluster 1 Member 45 Cluster 1 Member 46 Cluster 1 Member 47 Cluster 1 Member 48 Cluster 1 Member 49 Cluster 1 Member 50 Cluster 1
H H L L L L H H L L L L L L L H L L L L L L -6 H H 1000
H L H H L H H H -6 1010 H H H 1005 L L L H H H 1005 L H L H 1010 L 1010 L
1010 H H H H H H H H H H H H H H L L L H H H H H H H H H H
1 Deterministic run 1 Control run 50 ensemble members Courtesy of ECMWF
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 41 Conclusions
Onboard Route Optimization – considering specific ship performance – large data sets increase communication costs – optimum route may strongly depend on selection of options
Shore-Based Routing – information on ship properties often insufficent (chartered ships) – access to a variety of forecast models – MetOcean experts give short and clear advice
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected] 42 Thanks for your attention !
Marine Forecasting Course - 2013 [email protected]