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Domestic Ride-Hailing Services: Potential W10tr Valuation?

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Domestic Ride-Hailing Services: Potential W10tr Valuation? Kakao (035720 KS ) Domestic ride -hailing services: Potential W10tr valuation? Internet High valuations of Uber/Lyft Company Update US ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have filed for IPOs with the Securities and January 8, 2019 Exchange Commission (SEC) in December 2018. Of note, Uber provides a wide range of services, including ride-hailing (with options like Standard, Luxury, and SUV), shared rides, food delivery (Uber Eats), a shipping platform (Uber Freight), ride-hailing exclusively for healthcare organizations (Uber Health), and a staffing platform (Uber Works). (Maintain) Buy In 2018, Uber recorded an estimated US$46.8bn in total gross bookings and US$10.8bn in net revenue. However, the company is still incurring huge losses, with a net loss of Target Price (12M, W) 130,000 US$1.07bn in 3Q18. Meanwhile, Lyft controls 29% of the North American market as of October 2018, up from 22% in October 2017. US media reports suggest Uber and Lyft Share Price (01/07/19, W) 103,000 could be valued at US$120bn (W135tr) and US$15.1bn (W17tr), respectively, in their IPOs. Success will depend on traffic and revenue growth Expected Return 26% We believe the success of Uber’s and Lyft’s IPOs will be tied to the pace of growth of their user traffic and revenue around the time of their listings. In addition, we think OP (18F, Wbn) 102 these two companies’ stock market performances will be reflected in the Korean stock Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 102 market by their effect on growth expectations on the domestic ride-sharing market. EPS Growth (18F, %) -48.8 Ride-hailing is projected to account for 30% of the global auto market by 2030 , with many Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 7.4 consumers expected to forgo car ownership in favor of such services. Applying the 30% P/E (18F, x) 125.6 share to domestic auto market projections, we estimate that Korea’s ride-hailing market Market P/E (18F, x) 8.2 could grow to W15tr. If we simply apply the current valuations of Uber/Lyft (based on KOSPI 2,037.10 media reports) as well as the size of the US auto market versus the Korean auto market, domestic ride-hailing services could reach a market value of W10tr. Market Cap (Wbn) 8,589 Shares Outstanding (mn) 83 Kakao Mobility’s traffic dominance; maintain Buy and TP of W130,000 Free Float (%) 62.4 Ride-hailing services continue to be a subject of controversy domestically and globally, Foreign Ownership (%) 25.2 amid intense conflicts with the taxi industry. Nevertheless, there are bullish expectations Beta (12M) 1.56 on Uber’s and Lyft’s IPOs that are supported by a number of positive indicators, including 52-Week Low 87,600 the rapid rise of user traffic and revenue, along with the strong revenue growth of 52-Week High 159,500 Russian company Yandex’s (YNDX US EQUITY/CP: $29.02) ride-sharing service since its launch in 2017. (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -10.0 -10.0 -34.0 Kakao is currently testing a beta car pool service, and lawmakers and regulators are Relative -8.3 0.4 -19.1 carrying out related discussions. A string of new competitors are also entering the market. However, we note that Kakao Mobility holds a dominant share in Korea’s ride- 130 Kakao KOSPI hailing market, meaning it would claim the majority of the potential W10tr valuation of 110 domestic ride-hailing services. 90 70 50 12.17 4.18 8.18 12.18 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Internet ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 932 1,464 1,972 2,383 2,773 3,363 Chang -kwean Kim +822 -3774 -1614 OP (Wbn) 89 116 165 102 143 330 [email protected] OP margin (%) 9.5 7.9 8.4 4.3 5.2 9.8 NP (Wbn) 76 58 109 64 155 276 EPS (W) 1,269 874 1,602 820 1,857 3,307 ROE (%) 3.0 1.9 2.9 1.6 3.7 6.3 P/E (x) 91.2 88.1 85.5 125.6 55.5 31.1 P/B (x) 2.7 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates January 8, 2019 Kakao Figure 1. Uber and Lyft preparing for IPO in the first half of 2019 Source: The Hustle, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. Trend of total market cap of Uber and US vehicle Figure 2. Estimated corporate value of Uber and Lyft after IPO manufacturers (2014-19) (US$bn) (-5Y=100) 150 800 Ford Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 120 General Motors 120 Uber 600 90 400 60 200 30 15.1 0 0 Uber Lyft 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 Source: Bloomberg, media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Note: Based on each year’s highest estimated value for Uber and daily market caps for others Source: Bloomberg, Forbes, Statista, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. Global auto market breakdown (based on market Figure 5. Korean auto market breakdown (based on market cap) cap) (%) Vehicle sales Aftermarket EV/AV Ride-hailing (Wtr) 1% 100 80 Vehicle sales Aftermarket EV/AV Ride-hailing 1% 25% 30% 75 60 0.5 11% 0.5 14.9 12.3 50 19% 40 5.5 9.5 73% 25 20 36.5 40% 27.3 0 0 2016 2030 2018 2030 Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (Oct. 2017), Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Notes: Korean auto market cap is based on our estimate Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (Oct . 2017), Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 8, 2019 Kakao Figure 6. Estimated values of the US auto market (based on Figure 7. Estimated values of the Korean auto market (based revenue) and US ride-hailing market (based on the market on revenue) and Korean ride-hailing market (based on caps of Uber and Lyft) market cap) (Wtr) (Wtr) 600 566.5 40 36.5 30 400 20 200 152.3 9.8 10 0 0 US automotive industry size Estimated value of Uber and Lyft Korea automotive industry size Estimated value of Share Mobility Economy Note: US$12bn for Uber and US$15.1bn for Lyft Notes: Korean auto market value is based on our estimate Source: Bloomberg, Statista, the Press, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: KAMA, KAIDA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 8. Global ride-hailing app downloads (weekly) in 2012-18 (mn downloads) 6 Uber Lyft DiDi Chuxing Grab Ola Cabs 4 2 0 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 9. North America’s cumulative ride-hailing app downloads (monthly) in 2012-18 (mn downloads) 250 Uber Uber Eats Lyft 200 150 100 50 0 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 January 8, 2019 Kakao Figure 10. Number of domestic ride-hailing app active users (2013-18) (mn persons) 6 Green Car SOCAR Kakao T T map Taxis TADA 4 2 0 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 11. Cumulative quarterly Kakao T downloads (1Q15~4Q18) (mn downloads) 40 27.3 mn downloads +22.9%, YoY 30 22.2 mn downloads +44.7%, YoY 15.3 mn downloads +88.6%, YoY 20 8.1 mn downloads 10 0 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 12. Cumulative quarterly Uber downloads (1Q15~4Q18) (mn downloads) 800 620.7 mn downloads +31.9%, YoY 600 455.5 mn downloads +78.1%, YoY 400 255.7 mn downloads +216.3%, YoY 80.8 mn downloads 200 +496.4%, YoY 0 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 January 8, 2019 Kakao Table 1. Uber’s revenue scenario by stock market condition (US$bn, %) 2016 2017 2018(F) 2019(F) 2020(F) 2021(F) 2022(F) Total Bookings (US$bn) 21.6 32.8 46.8 60.8 76.1 87.5 100.6 Base Case GR (YoY, %) 151.2 51.9 42.7 30 25 15 15 Revenue (US$bn) 4.5 7.2 10.8 14 17.5 20.1 23.1 Total Bookings (US$bn) 21.6 32.8 46.8 65.5 91.7 119.2 143.1 Bull Case GR (YoY, %) 151.2 51.9 42.7 40 40 30 20 Revenue (US$bn) 4.5 7.2 10.8 15.1 22 29.8 35.8 Total Bookings (US$bn) 21.6 32.8 46.8 53.8 59.2 65.1 71.6 Bear Case GR (YoY, %) 151.2 51.9 42.7 15 10 10 10 Revenue (US$bn) 4.5 7.2 10.8 11.8 12.4 13 14.3 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Yandex: Quarterly revenue (Wbn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Revenue 405.2 436.7 - - 500.8 517.1 557.5 Search and Portal 366.1 397.8 - - 420 430.1 456.6 Taxi 15.3 15.3 - - 58.7 70.8 87.5 Classifieds 7.3 9.1 - - 13.3 15.9 16.9 Experiments 6.4 6.8 - - 3.4 7.2 12.1 Media Services - - - - - 6.9 7.1 E-commerce 25.4 23.1 - - 23.7 7.7 0 Eliminations -15.2 -15.4 - - -26.2 -21.6 -22.6 Media Services - - - - 7.9 - - Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 13.
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