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Transportation Beginning of Restructuring: Supply Is the Key Variable
2020 Outlook Transportation Beginning of restructuring: Supply is the key variable Jay JH Ryu +822-3774-1738 [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] 3 I. Airlines 4 II. Mobility 17 III. Logistics 32 IV. Shipping 37 [Conclusion] 45 [Top picks] 46 [Summary] Momentum to diverge based on supply management OP vs. P/B: Amid market down cycle, earnings momentum to diverge based on each company’s supply management (Wbn) (x) OP (L) P/B (R) 1,500 2.5 Oil price decline; Air cargo Minimum Global Global High oil prices; greater Oil rebound; wage hike; Slowdown in Inventory housing financial shipping market logistics price LCC growth; economic Chinese stimulus restocking bubble crisis restructuring momentum rebound M&As slowdown 1,000 2.0 500 1.5 0 1.0 -500 0.5 -1,000 0.0 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2020 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Airlines: Weak demand to prompt restructuring Economic slowdown and • Outbound demand on Japan routes has declined, hurt by a slowing economy and the Korea-Japan diplomatic row. bottoming out of Japan • Japan routes appear to be bottoming out; declines in load factor should stabilize in early 2020, supported by supply cuts. route demand Sharp decline in outbound demand on Japan routes Passenger traffic growth on Japan routes ('000 persons) (%) (%, %p) 3,500 Korean outbound travelers (L) YoY (R) 35 20 YoY passenger growth L/F indicator 30 3,000 10 25 0 2,500 20 Week of -10 Chuseok 2,000 15 -20 1,500 10 5 -30 1,000 0 -40 500 -5 -50 0 -10 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bloomberg, KTO, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Air Portal, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2020 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. -
Webtoons: the Next Frontier in Global Mobile Content
Media Webtoons: The next frontier in global mobile content Overweight (Maintain) Webtoons: No. 1 in Korea = No. 1 in the world Korea is the birthplace of webtoons. As a “snack-culture” format optimized to Industry Report smartphones, Korea’s webtoons have made significant progress over the years and September 20, 2019 now boast the strongest platform/content competitiveness in the world. As demand for mobile entert ainment continues to grow, webtoons are capturing the eyes and wallets of an increasing number of users, presenting a significant opportunity for Korean platform providers. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Webtoons to take shape as a distinct market [Media ] Webtoons are more than just an online conversion of paper-based comic books. They Jeong -yeob Park represent a new form of content created by the mobile internet ecosystem. Not only is +822 -3774 -1652 the potential audience larger, but the time spent on webtoons tends to be longer than [email protected] time spent reading paper comics. In Kor ea, webtoons already account for the second largest share of time spent on apps, after videos. When assuming full monetization, the size of the webtoon market is on a completely different level than the traditional comic book market. Webtoons are also gai ning traction among younger people in the global market, similar to what we saw in Korea five to 10 years ago. With the help of marketing and a well-established user/writer base, webtoons look likely to take root as a new culture in overseas markets. Of note, LINE Webtoon has seen impressive user growth in the US , with 8mn monthly active users (MAU). -
June 2020 | Investor Relations Disclaimer Table of Contents
June 2020 | Investor Relations Disclaimer Table of Contents Kakao Ecosystem 4 Kakao Business 12 Talk Biz 13 Mobility 16 Techfin(Pay) 17 Techfin(Bank) 18 Music 19 Game 20 Paid Content 21 IP Business(M) 22 IP Business(IX) 23 B2B Business 24 Financial Overview 25 Kakao ecosystem Kakao business Financial overview 4 Vision “Connect Everything” Innovating the way we connect for a better tomorrow 5 History ● Interactive Business Platform 2013 100million Subscribers Kakao talk 2014 Kakao & Daum Merger 2010 2010 2014 2015 2016 2016 2017 Kakao Kakao Kakao Kakao Kakao Kakao Kakao Talk Talk Gift Pay Taxi Makers Driver Bank 2006 KaKao (I.W.I LAB) Established 2018 Kakao & LOEN 2012 2012 2013 2016 2016 Merger Kakao Kakao Kakao LOEN Kakao Japan Game Friends Page Acquisition Piccoma ● Content Ecosystem & Global Expansion Kakao M Spin off 6 Undisputed Market Leader No1. Mobile Messenger Service in Korea Kakao Talk Monthly Active Users 45 Million MAU in Korea 96% Market Share 45,188 87% Population Penetration 44,731 44,859 44,417 44,076 43,526 43,577 43,662 43,812 #1 Brand Power Across 220 Industries in Korea Most Admired Workplace Among Top 100 Companies in Korea by Market Cap. 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 #1 Social Contribution Index Korea 43,526 43,577 43,662 43,812 44,076 44,417 44,731 44,859 45,188 Among the 57 Largest Conglomerate Groups in Korea Global 50,348 50,113 50,187 50,219 50,547 50,882 51,374 51,495 51,768 Average of monthly MAUs. -
Media/Entertainment Rise of Webtoons Presents Opportunities in Content Providers
Media/Entertainment Rise of webtoons presents opportunities in content providers The rise of webtoons Overweight (Maintain) Webtoons are emerging as a profitable new content format, just as video and music streaming services have in the past. In 2015, webtoons were successfull y monetized in Korea and Japan by NAVER (035420 KS/Buy/TP: W241,000/CP: W166,500) and Kakao Industry Report (035720 KS/Buy/TP: W243,000/CP: W158,000). In late 2018, webtoon user number s April 9, 2020 began to grow in the US and Southeast Asia, following global monetization. This year, NAVER Webtoon’s entry into Europe, combined with growing content consumption due to COVID-19 and the success of several webtoon-based dramas, has led to increasing opportunities for Korean webtoon companies. Based on Google Trends Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. data, interest in webtoons is hitting all-time highs across major regions. [Media ] Korea is the global leader in webtoons; Market outlook appears bullish Jeong -yeob Park Korea is the birthplace of webtoons. Over the past two decades, Korea’s webtoon +822 -3774 -1652 industry has created sophisticated platforms and content, making it well-positioned for [email protected] growth in both price and volume. 1) Notably, the domestic webtoon industry adopted a partial monetization model, which is better suited to webtoons than monthly subscriptions and ads and has more upside potent ial in transaction volume. 2) The industry also has a well-established content ecosystem that centers on platforms. We believe average revenue per paying user (ARPPU), which is currently around W3,000, can rise to over W10,000 (similar to that of music and video streaming services) upon full monetization. -
ICIS 2017, Seoul 1 Welcome to Seoul
ICIS 2017, Seoul 1 Welcome to Seoul Dear friends and colleagues of the AIS Community: It is our great pleasure to welcome you for ICIS 2017 to Seoul, a vibrant city that has been the capital city of Korea, for more than 600 years! ICIS 2017 promises to be an exciting and intellectually stimulating event, with a program that features 406 paper presentations and 42 ancillary meetings of SIGs and chapters. The conference is also introducing a number of innovations. We are inaugurating the first paper-a-thon with 46 papers where co-authors will meet and create new knowledge in real-time, during the conference. In addition to the continuing tradition of the doctoral consortium, the conference includes a doctoral student corner and doctoral student reunion for the first time. The junior faculty consortium, mid-career faculty workshop, and senior scholar’s college will help colleagues at every stage of career development. We hope that the diverse spectrum of activities at ICIS 2017 will be an invaluable experience, enriching your interactions and knowledge exchange, and providing numerous opportunities to renew old relationships and build new ones. The theme of ICIS2017 is “Transforming Society with Digital Innovation.” All countries across the globe are moving in this direction. Korea has also been growing fast based on its manufacturing and operational capability for the past 50 years, and the Korean government and companies have expended considerable effort in developing digital capability to make the country grow further to benefit its citizens. Germany has initiated the industry 4.0 and platform industry 4.0, the U.S.A. -
Kakao Buy (035720 KS) (Maintain)
[Korea] Internet March 17, 2021 Kakao Buy (035720 KS) (Maintain) Biggest beneficiary of bitcoin frenzy TP: W590,000 ▲ Upside: 23.2% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Chang-kwean Kim [email protected] HeeSeok Lim [email protected] Watch for earnings surprise Pay, Bank, and Piccoma showing robust earnings indicators in 1Q21 every quarter in 2021 Key indicators suggest Kakao’s growth businesses (Bizboard, commerce, etc.) are continuing their earnings momentum into 1Q21. We expect GMV to begin meaningful growth on the back of the introduction of the shopping tab. Unique users of the KakaoBank and Kakao Pay apps (a leading earnings indicator) continued to increase sharply in January and February. We forecast Piccoma’s 1Q21 GMV to climb 304% YoY. The webtoon service is setting new records for a Japanese mobile internet business. Dunamu to drive Poised to become biggest beneficiary of growth of Upbit earnings surprise in 2021 Upbit, Korea’s largest crypto exchange, has recently seen its traffic and trading volume exceed 4Q17 levels. Kakao directly and indirectly owns a roughly 23% stake in Dunamu, the operator of Upbit. Kakao recorded W29bn in equity-method gains from Dunamu in 4Q17. If the current cryptocurrency frenzy continues, we expect the crypto exchange operator to contribute more than W100bn in equity-method gains this year alone. Kakao’s stake could also be revalued higher following the NASDAQ listing of global crypto exchange Coinbase. Raise TP to W590,000 (from Trading to be suspended from Apr. 12-14 for 5:1 stock split, before resuming on Apr. 15 W570,000) We forecast 1Q21 revenue and operating profit to grow 46.3% and 76.9% YoY, respectively. -
Domestic Ride-Hailing Services: Potential W10tr Valuation?
Kakao (035720 KS ) Domestic ride -hailing services: Potential W10tr valuation? Internet High valuations of Uber/Lyft Company Update US ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have filed for IPOs with the Securities and January 8, 2019 Exchange Commission (SEC) in December 2018. Of note, Uber provides a wide range of services, including ride-hailing (with options like Standard, Luxury, and SUV), shared rides, food delivery (Uber Eats), a shipping platform (Uber Freight), ride-hailing exclusively for healthcare organizations (Uber Health), and a staffing platform (Uber Works). (Maintain) Buy In 2018, Uber recorded an estimated US$46.8bn in total gross bookings and US$10.8bn in net revenue. However, the company is still incurring huge losses, with a net loss of Target Price (12M, W) 130,000 US$1.07bn in 3Q18. Meanwhile, Lyft controls 29% of the North American market as of October 2018, up from 22% in October 2017. US media reports suggest Uber and Lyft Share Price (01/07/19, W) 103,000 could be valued at US$120bn (W135tr) and US$15.1bn (W17tr), respectively, in their IPOs. Success will depend on traffic and revenue growth Expected Return 26% We believe the success of Uber’s and Lyft’s IPOs will be tied to the pace of growth of their user traffic and revenue around the time of their listings. In addition, we think OP (18F, Wbn) 102 these two companies’ stock market performances will be reflected in the Korean stock Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 102 market by their effect on growth expectations on the domestic ride-sharing market. -
Exploring Potential Cooperation Opportunity Between Ride-Hailing Operator and Automotive Battery Supplier
Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Creative Components Dissertations Fall 2019 Exploring Potential Cooperation Opportunity between Ride-Hailing Operator and Automotive Battery Supplier Jingwen Zhang Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/creativecomponents Part of the Business Intelligence Commons Recommended Citation Zhang, Jingwen, "Exploring Potential Cooperation Opportunity between Ride-Hailing Operator and Automotive Battery Supplier" (2019). Creative Components. 442. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/creativecomponents/442 This Creative Component is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Creative Components by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Exploring Potential Cooperation Opportunity between Ride-Hailing Operator and Automotive Battery Supplier Creative Component presented to the faculty of Management Information Systems in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science by Jingwen Zhang Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 2019 Abstract With the growing popularity of ride-hailing services like Uber in recent years, many industries are looking for opportunities to cooperate with ride-hailing companies. Similarly, ride-hailing platforms are also looking for potential opportunities to cooperate with other service providers or product industries to bring more comprehensive, convenient, and personalized services to their customers. This research is dedicated to studying potential cooperation opportunities between ride- hailing platforms and automotive battery suppliers. There are extensive studies and research focuses on the topic of ride-hailing companies' future growth and direction as well as some studies on the impact of the ride-hailing market. -
Kakaopage Sees Transaction Volume Surpassing W500bn in 2020
[Korea ] Internet Kakao (035720 KS ) KakaoPage sees transaction volume surpassing W500bn in 2020 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected] Chang-kwean Kim [email protected] Kakao presented key indicators and its future vision for the webtoon business (KakaoPage and Piccoma) at IPO EXPO 2020. KakaoPage set its 2020 transaction volume target at over W500bn, far above our original expectation (W340.3bn). Maintain Buy and TP of W370,000: We expect Kakao’s webtoon business to gain increasing attention as a next-generation platform, alongside Webtoon Entertainment. 2020 transaction volume target set at over W500bn; aiming to become a global IP machine - KakaoPage (CEO Lee Jin-soo) presented a 2020 transaction volume target of over W500bn (+56.3%). - Given that roughly 40% of intellectual properties (IPs) available on Piccoma are owned by KakaoPage, we believe the W500bn target partially includes Piccoma’s transaction volume. - Still, we view the announcement as meaningful, as it presents a target well above our expectations (W340.3bn for KakaoPage and W234bn for Piccoma). - KakaoPage, which was the first in the industry to successfully monetize webtoons through its “pay or wait” model, has been strengthening its roles as both a content platform and IP holder (currently owning more than 7,000 original IP titles through investments in authors and content providers). - Meanwhile, Piccoma has successfully monetized its platform while also demonstrating the far-reaching power of “K-stories” (Korean webtoons/web novels). Of note, K-stories account for almost 40% of Piccoma’s transaction volume (but less than 5% of Piccoma’s titles). -
Promoting the Diffusion of Technology to Boost Productivity and Well-Being in Korea
OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1653 Promoting the diffusion of technology to boost Mathilde Pak productivity and well-being in Korea https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/51ea75a5-en Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ECO/WKP(2021)4 Unclassified English - Or. English 15 January 2021 ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT PROMOTING THE DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY TO BOOST PRODUCTIVITY AND WELL-BEING IN KOREA ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1653 By Mathilde Pak OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Authorised for publication by Alvaro Pereira, Director, Country Studies Branch, Economics Department. All Economics Department Working Papers are available at www.oecd.org/eco/workingpapers. JT03470299 OFDE This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2021)4 OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the authors. Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the authors and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, or by e-mail to [email protected]. -
Kakao T Taxi in March 2015, Kakao Mobility Corp
Report 20 18 CEO’s Message After the first publication last year, Kakao Mobility Corp. issued the second kakaomobility Report. Since its launch of Kakao T Taxi in March 2015, Kakao Mobility Corp. established its independent entity in August 2017, and introduced Kakao T by consolidating Kakao Taxi, Kakao Driver, Kakao Navi, and Kakao Parking. A large amount of travel data has been collected while Kakao Mobility Corp. has been committed to pursuing innovation. This Report shows our society’s dynamic aspects based on our collected mobility data. Many people have contributed to the publication of this Report. First of all, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to Kakao T users who have provided real time travel data. I also would like to thank taxi drivers and designated drivers for responding to surveys and interviews for this Report. Such valuable information will become a meaningful foundation for Kakao Mobility Corp. to improve customer services and constantly pursue innovation. With the age of digital transformation, the mobility industry worldwide has been experiencing a big change. In particular, travel innovation is considered as a meaningful innovation that can make many people’s life safer and more convenient and create more chances for a happier life by broadening the sphere of living. This mobility business is rapidly growing in a world of borderless competition. However, I am very worried that Korea may fall behind global competition and lose a chance to take the lead in innovation due to several regulations and conflicts. It’s time to make a bold leap forward to innovative growth at the national level. -
Hallyu White Paper, 2018 Hallyu White Paper, 2018
‘18 한 류 백 서 Hallyu White Paper, 2018 Hallyu White Paper, 2018 Contents 1 Introduction to the Hallyu (The Korean Wave) White Paper, 2018 3 2 Hallyu, Again at the starting point 29 1) Hallyu and the social imaginary in Yongjin Won 30 the age of digital technology Professor, Sogang University, Department of Communication 2) Efficacy of Hallyu: Doobo Shim 58 beyond industry, beyond superpower Professor, Sungshin Women’s University, Department of Media Communication 3) Universality and particularity Sujeong Kim 76 of K-pop as a glocal culture Professor, Chungnam National University, Department of Journalism and Communication Studies 4) New media and K-pop Mi-yeon Kim 128 Director of the Kakao 1theK Studio Seok-jeong Kwon Kakao M PD 5) Q&A about Hallyu, Interviewee: Jong-hwan Do 159 the Second Story Poet and politician; member of the National Assembly; former Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism Interviewer: Ah-young Kim KOFICE research team Introduction to the Hallyu(The Korean Wave) 1 White Paper, 2018 Hallyu White Paper, 2018 White Paper, Hallyu 1. Hallyu in Broadcast Programmes Need to change strategies for sustainable Hallyu in broadcast programmes The exports of broadcasting contents in 2018 were driven by programme providers and production companies. While the number of exports for terrestrial | Introduction to the Hallyu White Paper, 2018 White Paper, Introduction to the Hallyu broadcasting stations decreased by an annual average of 7.9% (approximately KRW 197.97888 billion between 2013 and 2017), that for programme providers increased by 20.6% (approximately KRW 126.23424 billion) and independent programme productions by 31.7% (approximately KRW 87.18336 billion) in the same period.