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Transportation the Inexorable March of Innovation

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Transportation the Inexorable March of Innovation 2H19 Outlook Transportation The inexorable march of innovation Jay JH Ryu +822-3774-1738 [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] Shares to rebound on earnings improvements in 2H 3 I. Logistics 4 II. Mobility 10 III. Airlines 21 [Conclusion] Market share expansion holds the key 27 Top picks 28 CJ Logistics, Jeju Air Global peer group valuations 30 [Summary] Shares to rebound on earnings improvements in 2H OP of the transportation sector vs. P/B: Valuations have declined amid economic slowdown (Wbn) (x) OP (L) P/B (R) 1,500 2.5 Oil price decline; Air cargo Minimum Global Global High oil prices; greater Oil wage hike; Slowdown in rebound; housing financial Inventory shipping market logistics price oil price Chinese stimulus LCC growth; bubble crisis restocking restructuring momentum rebound M&As growth 1,000 2.0 500 1.5 0 1.0 -500 0.5 -1,000 0.0 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 Source: FnGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Logistics: Easing of oversupply Over the past 15 years, • In the five years following the Asian financial crisis (1998), the domestic logistics market saw annual average regulations have supply growth of more than 10%, as many laid-off workers became independent delivery truck drivers. • Supply has been restricted over the past 15 years, thanks to delivery truck registration regulations. restricted supply growth • Logistics demand has also been on the rise, steadily resolving oversupply. No. of commercial trucks registered for logistics No. of domestic logistics players and growth ('000) (%) ('000) (%, YoY) 500 No. of commercial trucks (L) 20 400 No. of companies (L) YoY (R) 16 Growth (R) 13 400 15 300 10 300 10 200 7 200 4 5 100 100 1 0 0 0 -2 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 11 13 15 17 Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Statistics Korea, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Logistics: Easing of oversupply Price increases to come • The three major domestic logistics players generate OP margins below 3%: Lotte Global Logistics has suffered operating losses for two years in a row. • With rising labor and safety management costs, there is little room for margin improvement. • A rate hike is essential to improving margins. Parcel delivery firms’ OP margins: Differentiation even Parcel delivery rate trends: Market consolidation to lead to rate hike among top-tier firms (W) (%) 3,800 Overall average Top 5 average 6 CJ Logistics Hanjin Lotte Global Logistics 3,600 5 3,400 4 3,200 3 3,000 2 2,800 1 2,600 0 2,400 2,200 -1 2,000 -2 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Korea Logistics Business Directory, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Logistics: E-commerce players and 3PL Amazon has emerged as • Amazon (AMZN US/CP: US$1,921) has emerged as the leading player in the third-party logistics (3PL) market, the leading player in 3PL backed by revenue growth of 34% in 2018. • Of note, other top-tier logistics firms have also delivered robust growth. • There is controversy over the possibility of e-commerce companies’ entries into the 3PL market. Global 3PL rankings 2017 revenue 2018 revenue Ranking Company Country Growth Notes (US$) (US$) 1 Amazon US 31,881 42,745 34.1% Including commissions, fulfillment fees, and other 3PL service revenue 2 DHL Germany 30,775 33,424 8.6% 3 Kuehne + Nagel Switzerland 22,674 25,368 11.9% 4 DB Schenker Germany 17,783 19,527 9.8% 5 Nippon Express Japan 16,382 18,205 11.1% 6 C.H. Robinson US 13,503 15,515 14.9% Acquired Milgram & Company in Sep. 2017 and The Space Group in Mar. 2019. 7 DSV Denmark 11,355 12,511 10.2% 8 XPO Logistics US 10,352 11,823 14.2% 9 UPS US 8,691 9,814 12.9% 10 J.B. Hunt US 6,828 8,214 20.3% Acquired Special Logistics in Jul. 2017 and Cory Home Delivery in Jan. 2019. 13 CEVA Logistics Switzerland 6,994 7,356 5.2% 24 Samsung SDS Logistics Korea 3,688 3,977 7.8% 28 FedEx US 3,294 3,654 10.9% 30 CJ Logistics Korea 2,308 3,322 43.9% Acquired DSC Logistics in Jun. 2018. 35 Kerry Logistics Hong Kong 2,204 2,673 21.3% Acquired S.A.S. in May 2018. Note: Rankings based on 2018 data Source: Armstrong & Associates, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Logistics: E-commerce players and 3PL How much will parcel • Annual parcel delivery rate hike of 5% vs. Coupang’s logistics rate decline delivery rates increase? • We expect the parcel delivery rate to rise to W2,800 per box in 2023 (vs. around W2,200 in 2018; CAGR of -14% for Coupang’s rate). • If Coupang’s rate decline continues, the company could enter the 3PL market. • During its earnings call (May 3rd), a logistics firm projected price hikes through end-2023. Coupang’s logistics rate vs. parcel delivery rate (W/parcel) 12,000 Parcel delivery rate Coupang rate 10,000 8,000 1. Economies of scale 2. Establishment of CLS (3PL) 6,000 3. Increased efficiency CAGR: -14% 4,000 2,000 1. Cost-push CAGR: 5% 2. Government policies 3. Market consolidation 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: Korea Logistics Business Directory , company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Logistics: E-commerce players and 3PL Keep an eye on • Coupang: Logistics costs relative to revenue are estimated to have declined significantly. Coupang’s earnings • OP margin deteriorated despite increasing revenue and falling logistics cost burdens. • The problem is gross margin contraction, which appears attributable to low-price offerings. Platform commerce companies’ cost structures (US$mn/Wmn) Coupang Kurly Amazon 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Revenue 1,915,938 2,684,630 4,422,788 17,361 46,573 157,111 135,987 177,866 232,887 Gross profit 389,610 518,126 750,110 4,005 12,627 42,738 47,722 65,932 93,731 Gross margin 20.3 19.3 17.0 23.1 27.1 27.2 35.1 37.1 40.2 Logistics costs 459,775 674,640 823,226 7,418 15,151 47,397 17,619 25,249 34,027 % of revenue 24.0 25.1 18.6 42.7 32.5 30.2 13.0 14.2 14.6 Labor costs 108,810 169,921 196,646 3,138 4,976 8,397 16,085 22,620 28,837 % of revenue 5.7 6.3 4.4 18.1 10.7 5.3 11.8 12.7 12.4 Depreciation costs 41,185 52,470 57,232 550 604 1,383 8,116 11,478 15,341 % of revenue 2.1 2.0 1.3 3.2 1.3 0.9 6.0 6.5 6.6 Marketing/ads 32,347 53,803 154,843 631 2,387 14,804 7,233 10,069 13,814 % of revenue 1.7 2.0 3.5 3.6 5.1 9.4 5.3 5.7 5.9 Operating profit -565,270 -638,897 -1,097,037 -8,828 -12,396 -33,676 4,186 4,106 12,421 OP margin -29.5 -23.8 -24.8 -50.9 -26.6 -21.4 3.1 2.3 5.3 (ex-AWS) 1078 -225 OP margin 0.9 -0.1 (ex-AWS and overseas) 2361 2837 OP margin 32.7 Notes: Logistics costs include some labor costs for Coupang, transportation/rental costs for Kurly, and fulfilment costs for Amazon; Coupang’s labor costs exclude labor costs related to logistics. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Logistics: E-commerce players and 3PL Delivery labor shortage • Coupang has been expanding delivery outsourcing (Coupang Flex) due to labor shortages. is another issue that • There has been increasing controversy over Coupang Flex. Coupang needs to • In addition to cost burdens and earnings deterioration, delivery labor shortages are another issue that Coupang needs to address. address Coupang’s labor shortage Controversy over Coupang Flex Controversy over Coupang delivery personnel compensation Is an hourly wage of W25,000 a thing of the past? Surge in part-time delivery personnel results in lower fees (less than W700) Securing volume by lowering unit prices by W100-200 The dark side of Coupang Flex: Apartment passwords shared too freely Deliveries handled without confirming ID Shared entrance passwords given out freely Despite increasing delivery volume, the number of Are Coupang Flex’s issues okay for now? “Coupang Men” remains at 3,500 Source: Press materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 9| 2H19 Outlook [Transportation] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Mobility: An irreversible trend Mobility IPOs • IPO of Lyft (LYFT US/CP: US$59.34) in March 2019: Raised US$18bn; Shares are stabilizing after a 20% decline.
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