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Retail(Neutral/Maintain) [Korea] January 25, 2021 Retail (Neutral/Maintain) Coupang: Putting doubts to rest Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Myoungjoo Kim [email protected] Minjeong Kyeong [email protected] Coupang IPO coming into view IPO looking increasingly likely Coupang has reportedly passed preliminary screening for listing on the US Nasdaq market. Media reports have suggested the company could be worth around US$25-40bn, which implies a P/S of 1.7-2.8x based on our 2021 estimates. Amazon traded at 3.95x P/S in 2003, the year it first turned a profit (2002-04 average of 2.8x). In 2021, Coupang should benefit from a steady increase in commission income along with falling parcel delivery rates (due to volume growth), potentially leading to meaningful improvement in profitability. Potential valuation levels should also be viewed in the context of the company’s expanding retail market share. E-commerce market Coupang driving e -commerce market re alignment realignment has begun Coupang has regained its parcel delivery business license. In 2021, we expect the company to expand its fulfillment services in order to: 1) strengthen the competitiveness of its platform categories; and 2) raise commission income. The company should gain share in the e-commerce market, backed by: 1) enhanced competitiveness in directly sourced merchandise (especially in fashion); and 2) GMV growth of its marketplace resulting from the expansion of fulfillment services. Coupang looks likely to expand its e-commerce market share to 15.7% (+2.4%p) in 2021 and 19.3% (+3.6%p) in 2022. Retail market share to expand Market leadership to expand beyond e -commerce to broader retail sector Furthermore, Coupang appears likely to expand its share of the broader retail market to 5.8% (+1.4%p) in 2021 and 7.8% (+2.0%p) in 2022. As of 2019, there were 168 Rocket Delivery centers (logistics centers and “delivery camps”). The company is expected to build more than five large-scale logistics centers in the coming years (based on media reports). We are seeing increasing convergence between online and offline infrastr ucture in the retail sector, both domestically and globally. Similar to global online retailers, Coupang could eventually expand its offline infrastructure beyond logistics facilities in an effort to gain further ground in the retail market. Estimated M/S of major domestic e-commerce firms in 2021 (%) 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 eBay Korea 11Street SSG.com Coupang WeMakePrice Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. January 25, 2021 Retail Key assumptions behind 2021-22 estimates Additional COVID-19-related costs and sanitization expenses were incurred in 2020. Delivery volume growth: +55.9% YoY in 2020 and +28.3% YoY in 2021 Revised up 2021-22 labor expense estimates in light of parcel delivery license procurement, launch of OTT service, and potential IPO 3PL business expansion not reflected Table 1. Coupang: Earnings estimates (W100mn, %) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 11,338 19,159 26,846 43,546 71,531 114,435 159,042 211,202 YoY 225.3 69.0 40.1 62.2 64.3 60.0 39.0 32.8 Merchandise revenue 9,904 17,047 24,592 40,164 64,767 100,907 131,987 162,502 YoY 408.2 72.1 44.3 63.3 61.3 55.8 30.8 23.1 Commission/other revenue 1,434 2,112 2,255 3,382 6,764 13,528 27,055 48,700 YoY -6.7 47.3 6.8 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 COGS 9,891 15,263 21,665 41,428 59,500 94,434 128,094 168,681 % of revenue 87.2 79.7 80.7 95.1 83.2 82.5 80.5 79.9 Related to merchandise revenue 36,512 51,424 82,268 112,746 149,722 Related to delivery 4,916 8,076 12,166 15,348 18,959 SG&A expenses 6,917 9,549 11,570 13,398 19,236 26,282 32,496 40,556 YoY 146.3 38.1 21.2 15.8 43.6 36.6 23.6 24.8 Labor 3,627 5,664 6,555 5,202 6,170 7,318 8,782 10,538 YoY 56.16 15.7 18.6 18.6 20.0 20.0 Service commission fees 884 1,076 1,651 2,700 4,065 6,503 8,243 10,946 % of revenue 7.8 5.6 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.2 Taxes/dues 185 228 174 351 408 652 906 1,203 % of revenue 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Transportation/lease 983 1,294 1,468 2,262 2,606 3,556 4,255 5,076 % of merchandise revenue 9.9 7.6 6.0 5.6 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 Purchasing 243 277 349 542 945 1,473 1,926 2,372 % of merchandise revenue 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Depreciation 192 412 525 572 1,806 1,896 1,991 2,090 YoY 115.0 27.4 9.1 215.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 Advertising/promotion 560 323 538 1,513 2,934 4,400 5,720 7,436 YoY - 42.3 66.3 181.1 93.9 50.0 30.0 30.0 Other 242 274 310 255 303 485 674 895 % of revenue 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 OP -5,470 -5,653 -6,389 -11,280 -7,205 -6,282 -1,548 1,964 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 25, 2021 Retail Figure 1. Coupang: Delivery volume and per-package cost estimates (W) (mn parcels) Delivery volume (R) Per-package costs (L) 6,000 1,800 5,000 1,500 4,000 1,200 3,000 900 2,000 600 1,000 300 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 3. Coupang: No. of Rocket Delivery centers is Figure 2. Coupang: No. of Rocket Delivery SKUs is increasing increasing ('000) (No. of Rocket Delivery centers) 7,000 180 168 160 6,000 140 5,000 120 4,000 100 85 3,000 80 60 50 2,000 40 27 1,000 20 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Present 2014 2017 2018 2019 Note: Our estimates are based on media reports. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 4. Coupang: E-commerce M/S estimates Figure 5. Coupang: Retail M/S estimates (%) (%) 25 9 7.8 8 19.3 20 7 5.8 15.7 6 15 13.3 5 4.5 11.0 4 10 8.5 3.2 3 2.1 1.6 5 2 1.4 0.9 1 0 0 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 January 25, 2021 Retail What to expect in 2021: 1) Fashion SKU expansion to improve competitiveness in Rocket Delivery categories Since Apr. 2020, Coupang has been expanding its fashion category (e.g., with the launch of C. Avenue). In 2021, we believe the company will strengthen the competitiveness of its Rocket Delivery categories, focusing on fashion rather than groceries (which involve high disposal risks and require offline infrastructure). The fashion category has a lower online penetration rate than the broader market and has the potential to generate higher margins than groceries. This could weigh on sales of low/mid-range clothing and accessories at some offline retail channels. Figure 7. No. of available brands: Musinsa vs. W Concept vs. Figure 6. Online penetration rate: Apparel vs. overall offline department stores vs. Coupang C. Avenue (%) (No.) Overall penetration rate Apparel penetration rate 40 4,000 35 30 3,000 25 2,000 20 15 1,000 10 5 0 0 Musinsa W Concept Offline Coupang C. 1/18 6/18 11/18 4/19 9/19 2/20 7/20 department stores Avenue Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 January 25, 2021 Retail What to expect in 2021: 2) Expansion of fulfillment services Coupang has already begun offering fulfillment services through Rocket Partnership. Rocket Partnership handles product storage and delivery, as well as customer service, for Coupang’s marketplace sellers. We believe Coupang will strengthen and expand its fulfillment services in order to: 1) raise commission income; 2) lower parcel delivery costs through higher delivery density; and 3) improve the competitiveness of its categories. Coupang has regained its parcel delivery business license. We believe the company will offer different types of fulfillment services (which will not require any direct sourcing). Rocket Partnership commissions are currently believed to be more than double Coupang’s regular commissions. Figure 8. Coupang: Commission/other revenue as % of GMV (estimates) (%) 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 January 25, 2021 Retail What to expect in 2021: 3) Strengthening of Rocket Wow membership services Coupang’s Rocket Wow paid subscription program reportedly has more than 5mn members (10% of the population), as well as a fairly low churn rate (around 5%).
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