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Exploring the Barriers and Opportunities of the Trend Towards Autonomous Shipping

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Exploring the Barriers and Opportunities of the Trend Towards Autonomous Shipping Master Thesis By Janis Habdank - Double Degree Programme M.Sc. Water and Coastal Management (Oldenburg) M.Sc. Environmental and Infrastructure Planning (Groningen) Exploring the barriers and opportunities of the trend towards autonomous shipping Matriculation numbers: 4592117 / s3791513 Email: [email protected] Submitted to Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, 12th of August 2019 1st supervisor: Prof. ir. Wim Leendertse 2nd supervisor: PhD candidate Malena Ripken Master Thesis Janis Habdank TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ________________________________________________________________________________________ I LIST OF TABLES ________________________________________________________________________________________ II LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ____________________________________________________________________________ III ABSTRACT ______________________________________________________________________________________________ IV 1 INTRODUCTION ___________________________________________________________________________________ 1 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT AND RESEARCH QUESTION ________________________________________________ 2 1.2 SCIENTIFIC AND SOCIETAL RELEVANCE ___________________________________________________________ 3 1.3 THEORETICAL APPROACH ________________________________________________________________________ 4 2 SETTING THE STAGE _____________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.1 THE SHIPPING SECTOR ___________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.2 PORT ENVIRONMENTS ___________________________________________________________________________ 8 2.3 DRIVERS AND PRESSURES FOR CHANGE IN SHIPPING INDUSTRY ___________________________________ 9 2.4 THE DAWN OF AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING _________________________________________________________ 10 2.4.1 Smaller-scale forerunners of autonomous ships _________________________________________ 10 2.4.2 Introducing the idea of autonomous ships and autonomy levels ________________________ 11 2.4.3 Recent examples of and efforts concerning autonomous ships __________________________ 13 2.5 CORNERSTONES FOR REALIZING THE IDEA OF AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING ___________________________ 14 3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ___________________________________________________________________ 17 3.1 TRANSITION THEORY AND AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING ______________________________________________ 17 3.1.1 Multi-level perspective (MLP) _____________________________________________________________ 18 3.1.2 Multi-stage concept ________________________________________________________________________ 19 3.1.3 Merging the concepts with trend towards autonomous shipping _______________________ 20 3.2 PULLING THE STRINGS TOGETHER: CONCEPTUAL MODEL _________________________________________ 22 4 METHODOLOGY __________________________________________________________________________________ 23 4.1 DESK RESEARCH ________________________________________________________________________________ 23 4.2 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH ________________________________________________________________________ 23 4.3 CASE STUDY RESEARCH _________________________________________________________________________ 25 4.4 CASE SELECTION AND INTRODUCTION: PORT OF HAMBURG ______________________________________ 26 4.5 SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS ________________________________________________________________ 28 5 RESULTS ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 31 5.1 BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES OF AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING SHIPPING SECTOR _________________ 31 – Master Thesis Janis Habdank 5.1.1 Technology and infrastructure: Opportunities ___________________________________________ 31 5.1.2 Technology and infrastructure: Barriers _________________________________________________ 32 5.1.3 Safety, security and insurance: Opportunities ____________________________________________ 33 5.1.4 Safety, security and insurance: Barriers __________________________________________________ 34 5.1.5 Societal, legal and regulatory acceptance: Opportunities _______________________________ 36 5.1.6 Societal, legal and regulatory acceptance: Barriers _____________________________________ 39 5.1.7 Economical attractiveness and feasibility: Opportunities _______________________________ 43 5.1.8 Economical attractiveness and feasibility: Barriers _____________________________________ 45 5.2 BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES OF AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING PORT OF HAMBURG _______________ 48 5.2.1 Technology and infrastructure: Opportunities and barriers– ____________________________ 48 5.2.2 Safety, security and insurance: Opportunities and barriers _____________________________ 49 5.2.3 Societal, legal and regulatory acceptance: Opportunities and barriers ________________ 51 5.2.4 Economical attractiveness and feasibility: Opportunities and barriers ________________ 52 6 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ________________________________________________________________ 54 6.1 ANSWERING THE RESEARCH QUESTION __________________________________________________________ 54 6.2 ANALYSING BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES FROM VIEW OF TRANSITION THEORY ________________ 56 6.2.1 Multi-level perspective and trend towards autonomous shipping ______________________ 56 6.2.2 Multi-phase model and trend towards autonomous shipping ___________________________ 57 6.3 LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES ____________________ 58 6.4 OUTLOOK ______________________________________________________________________________________ 60 LIST OF REFERENCES __________________________________________________________________________________ V Master Thesis Janis Habdank List of figures Figure 1: International seaborne trade development in selected years (Millions of tons loaded) (UNCTAD, 2018b) _________________________________________________________________________________________6 Figure 2: Compilation of current unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) (Breivik, 2010) _______________ 11 Figure 3: Levels of ship autonomy (Author, 2019; based on Lloyd's Register, 2016a) _______________ 12 Figure 4: Research Areas (Rolls-Royce plc, 2016) _____________________________________________________ 15 Figure 5: Circumstances of importance to the development of autonomous ships (DMA, 2017) ___ 15 Figure 6: Guiding cornerstones for exploring the barriers and opportunities of the trend towards autonomous shipping (Author, 2019) __________________________________________________________________ 16 Figure 7: Multi-level perspective (adapted; based on Geels and Kemp, 2000 in van der Brugge et al., 2005) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ 18 Figure 8: Multi-stage concept (based on Rotmans et al., 2000 in van der Brugge et al., 2005) _____ 20 Figure 9: Conceptual Model (Author, 2019) ___________________________________________________________ 22 Figure 10: Container terminal port of Hamburg (Handelsblatt, 2018) ______________________________ 27 Figure 11: Further parameters port of Hamburg (Author, 2019; based on Hafen Hamburg Marketing e.V., 2016/19a; Hamburg Port Authority AöR, 2017) _____________________________________ 28 I Master Thesis Janis Habdank List of tables Table 1: Organisations consulted and their relevance for shipping (Author, 2019) _________________ 30 Table 2: Interviewees consulted and their expertise in shipping (Author, 2019) ____________________ 30 II Master Thesis Janis Habdank List of abbreviations AAWA Advanced Autonomous Waterborne Applications initiative ASV Autonomous Surface Vehicles BSH Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie CML Fraunhofer-Center für Maritime Logistik und Dienstleistungen DMA Danish Maritime Authority Dwt dead-weight tons HPA Hamburg Port Authority ICS International Chamber of Shipping IMO International Maritime Organisation ITU International Telecommunications Union MASS Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship MLP Multi-level perspective MUNIN Maritime Unmanned Navigation through Intelligence in Networks SOLAS International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea TUHH Technische Universität Hamburg-Harburg UNCTAD United Nations Conference On Trade And Development USV Unmanned Surface Vehicles UUV Unmanned Underwater Vehicles III Master Thesis Janis Habdank Abstract Following new technological possibilities, autonomous vehicles have received their starting shot in transportation. This novel trend has also reached the shipping sector, leading to an increasingly gaining momentum for the concept of unmanned and autonomous vessels. This study specifically explores the barriers and opportunities of the trend towards autonomous shipping for two points of view: the general shipping sector and a port environment (case study port of Hamburg). The insights are additionally examined under the umbrella of transition theory to arrive at an understanding about th four distinct cornerstonese trend’s with current individual trajectory barriers and andassociated opportunities factors. Initialeach: researchtechnology reveals and infrastructure; safety, security and insurance; societal, legal and regulatory acceptance as well as economical attractiveness and feasibility. While the possibility to improve navigational safety is the most prominent opportunity, dismal social prospects (e.g. demise of seafaring profession and extensive job losses) and the constrained compatibility of the existing legal and regulatory framework (e.g. conventions tailored to manned shipping) stand out as barriers. Notwithstanding that issues
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