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Calculating the Weather Meteorology in the 20Th Century Calculating the Weather This is Volume 60 in the INTERNATIONAL GEOPHYSICS SERIES A series of monographs and textbooks Edited by RENATA DMOWSKA and JAMES R. HOLTON A complete list of books in this series appears at the end of this volume. Calculating the Weather Meteorology in the 20th Century Frederik Nebeker IEEE CENTER FOR THE HISTORY OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING RUTGERS UNIVERSITY NEW BRUNSWICK, NEW JERSEY ACADEMIC PRESS San Diego New York Boston London Sydney Tokyo Toronto Front cover photograph: NOAA-8 visual imagery of Hurricane Gloria, September 25, 1985, at 12:39 GMT. The islands of Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico are faintly visible near the bottom of the print. Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; National Climatic Data Center; and Satellite Data Services Division. This book is printed on acid-free paper. (~) Copyright 9 1995 by ACADEMIC PRESS, INC. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Academic Press, Inc. A Division of Harcourt Brace & Company 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, California 92101-4495 United Kingdom Edition published by Academic Press Limited 24-28 Oval Road, London NW1 7DX Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Nebeker, Frederik. Calculating the weather : meteorology in the 20th century / Frederik Nebeker. p. cm. -- (International geophysics series : v. 60) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-12-515175-6 1. Meteorology--Methodology. I. Title. II. Series. QC871.N344 1995 551.5'028--dc20 94-37625 CIP PRINTED IN THE UN1TED STATES OF AMERICA 95 96 97 98 99 00 QW 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents Chapter 1 Introduction Three Traditions in Meteorology ............................................... The Unification of Meteorology ............................................... Transformations of Meteorology ............................................... Algorithms, Calculation, and Computation ....................................... Forces Leading to an Increased Use of Algorithms ................................. Part I Meteorology in 1900 Chapter 2 An Empirical Tradition: Climatology Quantitative Description ..................................................... 11 Calculational Demands ...................................................... 13 Trying to Find Regularities by Tabulating ........................................ 15 Finding Regularities by Mapping .............................................. 16 Finding Regularities by Graphing .............................................. 19 Finding Regularities by Statistical Analysis ...................................... 21 The Establishment of Climatology ............................................. 24 Chapter 3 A Theoretical Tradition: Physics of the Atmosphere The Beginnings of Dynamical Meteorology ...................................... 27 William Napier Shaw ........................................................ 29 The Theorists and the Empiricists .............................................. 30 Calculation in Theoretical Meteorology ......................................... 31 Chapter 4 A Practical Tradition" Weather Forecasting The Weather Map ........................................................... 36 Skepticism about Weather Forecasting .......................................... 39 "Science, Not Art" . ........................................................ 40 Calculation in Weather Forecasting ............................................. 43 vi Contents Part II Meteorology in the First Half of the 20th Century Chapter 5 Vilhelm Bjerknes's Program to Unify Meteorology Aerology ................................................................. 47 From Physics to Meteorology ................................................. 49 The Program to Calculate the Weather .......................................... 50 The Graphical Calculus ...................................................... 52 A Turn toward Practical Forecasting ............................ "................ 56 Chapter 6 Lewis Fry Richardson: The First Person to Compute the Weather Into and out of Meteorology .................................................. 58 Discovery of a Numerical Method .............................................. 62 A Scheme to Compute the Weather ............................................. 65 The Data Requirements ...................................................... 67 The Theoretical Basis ........................................................ 71 A Test of the Scheme ........................................................ 74 The Necessity of Numerical Analysis ........................................... 76 The Inclusiveness of the Scheme ............................................... 78 The Influence of Richardson's Work ............................................ 80 Chapter 7 The Growth of Meteorology Meteorology in World War I .................................................. 83 The Bergen School .......................................................... 84 The Growth of Dynamical Meteorology ......................................... 86 Meteorology as a Profession .................................................. 87 Carl-Gustaf Rossby ......................................................... 88 Chapter 8 Meteorological Calculation in the Interwar Period The First Use of Punched-Card Machines ........................................ 91 The Search for Weather Cycles ................................................ 94 Calculating Aids ............................................................ 99 Calculation in Weather Forecasting ............................................. 104 The Beginnings of Numerical Experimentation ................................... 107 Chapter 9 The Effect of World War II on Meteorology Operation Overlord ......................................................... 111 The Wartime Importance of Meteorology ........................................ 113 The Increased Use of Punched-Card Machines .................................... 115 Changes in Meteorological Practice ............................................. 118 Changes in Meteorological Research ............................................ 123 Interest in Objective Forecasting ............................................... 127 Contents vii Part IIl The Beginning of the Computer Era in Meteorology Chapter 10 John von Neumann's Meteorology Project Von Neumann's Interest in Meteorology ......................................... 135 The Start of the Meteorology Project ............................................ 138 The Arrival of Jule Charney .................................................. 141 Charney's Program .......................................................... 143 The Use of the ENIAC ....................................................... 145 The Use of the IAS Computer ................................................. 148 Chapter 11 The Acceptance of Numerical Meteorology The Beginnings of a New Style of Meteorology ................................... 152 The Spread of Numerical Meteorology .......................................... 154 Steps toward Operational Forecasting by Means of Computer ........................ 156 The Establishment of Numerical Forecasting ..................................... 158 The Computers Used by Meteorologists ......................................... 162 The Abandonment of Other Calculating Aids ..................................... 165 Advances in Numerical Meteorology ........................................... 169 Chapter 12 The Unification of Meteorology Growth of the Profession ..................................................... 173 Advances in Observational Techniques .......................................... 174 A New Style of Research ..................................................... 177 Numerical Experimentation ................................................... 181 Numerical Analysis ......................................................... 183 The Unification of Meteorology ............................................... 184 Chapter 13 The Recognition of Limits to Weather Prediction ... 188 Notes .................................................................... 195 Note on Sources ............................................................ 225 References ................................................................ 227 Index .................................................................... 243 This Page Intentionally Left Blank Chapter 1 Introduction Three Traditions in Meteorology Recording weather observations, explaining the action of the atmosphere, and pre- dicting wind and rain are all ancient practices. The Babylonians did all three some 3000 years ago. The Greeks kept records of wind direction from the time of Meton (ca. 430 B.C.), had a theoretical meteorology from the time of Aristotle (ca. 340 B.C.), and were advised by "weather signs" from time immemorial. In the 17th century new instruments, such as the thermometer and barometer, permitted the measurement of elements of the weather; Ren6 Descartes, Edmond Halley, and others speculated on the causes of winds; and almanacs made weather prognosti- cations widely available. Through to the 20th century these three activities have been the principal ways people have manifested scientific
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