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An Abstract of the Dissertation Of AN ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION OF Kristine C. Harper for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History of Science presented on April 25, 2003. Title: Boundaries of Research: Civilian Leadership, Military Funding, and the International Network Surrounding the Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in the United States. Redacted for privacy Abstract approved: E. Doel American meteorology was synonymous with subjective weather forecasting in the early twentieth century. Controlled by the Weather Bureau and with no academic programs of its own, the few hundred extant meteorologists had no standing in the scientific community. Until the American Meteorological Society was founded in 1919, meteorologists had no professional society. The post-World War I rise of aeronautics spurred demands for increased meteorological education and training. The Navy arranged the first graduate program in meteorology in 1928 at MIT. It was followed by four additional programs in the interwar years. When the U.S. military found itself short of meteorological support for World War II, a massive training program created thousands of new mathematics- and physics-savvy meteorologists. Those remaining in the field after the war had three goals: to create a mathematics-based theory for meteorology, to create a method for objectively forecasting the weather, and to professionalize the field. Contemporaneously, mathematician John von Neumann was preparing to create a new electronic digital computer which could solve, via numerical analysis, the equations that defmed the atmosphere. Weather Bureau Chief Francis W. Reichelderfer encouraged von Neumann, with Office of Naval Research funding, to attack the weather forecasting problem. Assisting with the proposal was eminent Swedish-born meteorologist Carl-Gustav Rossby. Although Rossby returned to Stockholm to establish his own research school, he was thedefactohead of the Meteorology Projectproviding personnel, ideas, and a publication venue. On-site leader Jule Charney provided the equations and theoretical underpinnings. Scandinavian meteorologists supplied by Rossby provided atmospheric reality. Six years after the Project began, meteorologists were ready to move their models from a research to an operational venue. Attempts by Air Force meteorologist Philip D. Thompson to co-opt numerical weather prediction (NWP) prompted the academics, Navy, and Weather Bureau members involved to join forces and guarantee that operational NWP would remain a joint activity not under the control of any weather service. This is the story of the professionalization of a scientific community, of significant differences in national styles in meteorology, and of the fascination (especially by non-meteorologists) in exploiting NWP for the control of weather. © Copyright by Kristine C. Harper April 25, 2003 All Rights Reserved Boundaries of Research: Civilian Leadership, Military Funding, and the International Network Surrounding the Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in the United States by Kristine C. Harper A DISSERTATION submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Presented April 25, 2003 Commencement June 2003 Doctor of Philosophy dissertation of Kristine C. Harper presented on April 25, 2003. APPROVERedacted for privacy Major ssor, repr se Redacted for privacy Chair of the Department of History Redacted for privacy Dean of the I understand that my dissertation will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below Redacted for privacy Redacted for privacy . Harper, Author ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is the product of the guidance and assistance of many people, in particular the archivists and librarians who have helped me to fmd the materials that I needed to tell this story. With great appreciation I acknowledge the assistance of Diane Rabson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado; Margery Ciarlante of the National Archives II in College Park, Maryland; Janice Goldblum of the National Academy of Sciences Archives; Judith Goodstein, Charlotte Erwin and Bonnie Ludt of the California Institute of Technology Archives; Michelle Blakeslee of the Niels Bohr Library, American Institute of Physics, College Park, Maryland; Geoffrey P. Williams of the M.E. Grenander Department of Special Collections and Archives, State University of New York, Albany; Nora Murphy of the Institute Archives and Special Collections, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Bradley Gernand and the staff of the Manuscript Division, Library of Congress; Deborah Day of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archives; the archivists of the University of Washington Archives; Jinny Nathans of the American Meteorological Society; Pamela Henson of the Smithsonian Institution; Doria Grimes of the NOAA Central Library; and Joe Toth of the Valley Library, Oregon State University. Thanks also to those who helped me find materials and shared information with me while I visited the University of Stockholm: Eva Tiberg, Erland Källén, Karl Grandin, and Anders Caisson. Financial support was provided by the State of Oregonthrough the Oregon State University External Fellowship TuitionRelief Program and Supplemental Oregon Laurels Graduate Scholarships, theAmerican Meteorological Society's Graduate Fellowship in the History of Science, and travel grantsfrom the American Institute of Physics and the National Science Foundation. I especially appreciate those meteorologists who allowed me tointerview them during the research phase of the dissertation: JoanneSimpson, George Haltiner, Fred Decker, Bert Bolin, Willard "Sam" Houston, LeoClarke, Edward Lorenz, Thomas Malone, and Paul Wolff. The backgroundinformation I gained from these interviews helped me put the archival information intoperspective. Many thanks to my committee members: Ronald E. Doel, Mary JoNye, Paul L. Farber, Steven K. Esbensen, and James R. Males. I appreciatetheir input and guidance very much. Special thanks to my major professor,Ron Doe!, for showing extreme patience as I made the transition from being a scientist to being a historian. Encouragement and moral support have come from a number of quarters. Particular thanks go to Ron McPherson and William Hooke of the American Meteorological Society. Thanks also to James R. Fleming, Ronald Rainger, Naomi Oreskes, and Roy Goodman for suggestions and ideas. Many thanks to Gin Gebo and Willa Mae Gird for providing housing during archive trips and for notes of encouragement. I appreciate very much the support of friends in Albanyand Corvallis, particularly Carmel Finley, the Rev. Donna Pritchard, the Rev. Barbara Nixon, and the members of my faith community atFirst United Methodist Church of Albany, Oregon. Finally, I could not have completed the dissertationresearch without the cooperation and full support of my daughter TeresaElias, who kept things together at home while I flew around theworld, and the encouragement of my mother, Helen Harper. This dissertation is dedicated to themand to the memory of father, Terrell Harper. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2 A STAGNANT ATMOSPHERE: THE WEATHER SERVICES IN THE INTERWAR PERIOD (1919-1938).... 28 CHAPTER 3 TOWARDS A MORE DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE: DISCIPLINE DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERWAR PERIOD (1919-1938) ............................................... 97 CHAPTER 4 AN EXPANDING ATMOSPHERE: THE WAR YEARS (1939-1945) .......................................................... 133 CHAPTER 5 INITIAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS: SCIENTIFIC GOALS, CIVILIAN MANPOWER AND MILITARY FUNDING (1944-1948) ............................................ 175 CHAPTER 6 AN INTERNATIONAL ATMOSPHERE: CARL-GUSTAV ROSSBY AND THE SCANDINAVIAN CONNECTION (1948-1950) .......................................................... 229 CHAPTER 7 CREATING A REALISTIC ATMOSPHERE (1950-1952)... 289 CHAPTER 8 A CHANGING ATMOSPHERE: FROM DEVELOPMENTAL TO OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (1952-1955) ........................ 357 CHAPTER 9 EPILOGUE A NEW ATMOSPHERE ......................... 443 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page CHAPTER 10 CONCLUSION ...................................................... 452 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................... 460 APPENDIX: GLOSSARY .......................................... 485 BOUNDARIES OF RESEARCH: CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP, MILITARY FUNDING, AND THE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK SURROUNDINGTHE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION iN THE UNITED STATES CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Meteorology has witnessed significant disciplinary changes from the beginningof the twentieth century. Indeed, meteorologists from the early 1900s wouldview with wonder the practice of their science at the start of the twenty-first century.Far from being an art dependent upon a lifetime of experience in one locality,meteorology today is a sophisticated theoretical science. The data it draws upon are nolonger limited to what can be transmitted over telegraph lines. Instead, the data areglobal available from remote sensing devices such as satellites and radarand transmitted via high-speed data links all over the world in a matter of minutes.1 But the availability of large amounts of data is not what has advanced meteorology in the twentieth century. From the beginning of the century to the immediate post-World War II period, weather forecasters had increasingly large amounts of data to work with, but were able to process only so muchinformation
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