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ELECTORAL CALCULUS SLIDESHEETS 2015 All Seats

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ELECTORAL CALCULUS SLIDESHEETS 2015 All Seats ELECTORAL CALCULUS SLIDESHEETS 2015 All Seats - Page One Name___________________ 2010 Pred Maj Name___________________ 2010 Pred Maj Name___________________ 2010 Pred Maj Aberavon LAB LAB 42 Bootle LAB LAB 58 Christchurch CON CON 31 Aberconwy CON CON 5 Boston and Skegness CON CON 20 Cities of London and WestminsterCON CON 24 Aberdeen North LAB SNP 30 Bosworth CON CON 19 Clacton CON UKIP 6 Aberdeen South LAB SNP 29 Bournemouth East CON CON 25 Cleethorpes CON CON 3 Aberdeenshire West and KincardineLIB SNP 18 Bournemouth West CON CON 22 Clwyd South LAB LAB 15 Airdrie and Shotts LAB SNP 7 Bracknell CON CON 29 Clwyd West CON CON 11 Aldershot CON CON 22 Bradford East LIB LAB 14 Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillLAB LAB 9 Aldridge-Brownhills CON CON 33 Bradford South LAB LAB 20 Colchester LIB LIB 5 Altrincham and Sale West CON CON 21 Bradford West LAB LAB 21 Colne Valley CON CON 4 Alyn and Deeside LAB LAB 14 Braintree CON CON 26 Congleton CON CON 22 Amber Valley CON LAB 5 Brecon and Radnorshire LIB CON 2 Copeland LAB LAB 15 Angus SNP SNP 35 Brent Central LIB LAB 16 Corby CON LAB 3 Arfon Plaid Plaid 3 Brent North LAB LAB 24 Cornwall North LIB CON 3 Argyll and Bute LIB SNP 33 Brentford and Isleworth CON LAB 4 Cornwall South East CON CON 15 Arundel and South Downs CON CON 36 Brentwood and Ongar CON CON 34 Cotswolds, The CON CON 33 Ashfield LAB LAB 17 Bridgend LAB LAB 13 Coventry North East LAB LAB 35 Ashford CON CON 31 Bridgwater and West Somerset CON CON 21 Coventry North West LAB LAB 21 Ashton under Lyne LAB LAB 30 Brigg and Goole CON CON 5 Coventry South LAB LAB 15 Aylesbury CON CON 32 Brighton Kemptown CON LAB 3 Crawley CON CON 6 Ayr Carrick and Cumnock LAB SNP 13 Brighton Pavilion GreenGreen 5 Crewe and Nantwich CON CON 6 Ayrshire Central LAB SNP 17 Bristol East LAB LAB 15 Croydon Central CON LAB 0 Ayrshire North and Arran LAB SNP 22 Bristol North West CON CON 6 Croydon North LAB LAB 40 Banbury CON CON 27 Bristol South LAB LAB 22 Croydon South CON CON 25 Banff and Buchan SNP SNP 37 Bristol West LIB LIB 5 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and KirkintillochLAB EastSNP 9 Barking LAB LAB 41 Broadland CON CON 23 Cynon Valley LAB LAB 35 Barnsley Central LAB LAB 32 Bromley and Chislehurst CON CON 30 Dagenham and Rainham LAB LAB 11 Barnsley East LAB LAB 32 Bromsgrove CON CON 14 Darlington LAB LAB 15 Barrow and Furness LAB LAB 17 Broxbourne CON CON 34 Dartford CON CON 14 Basildon and Billericay CON CON 23 Broxtowe CON LAB 6 Daventry CON CON 34 Basildon South and East ThurrockCON CON 6 Buckingham CON CON 19 Delyn LAB LAB 13 Basingstoke CON CON 24 Burnley LIB LAB 14 Denton and Reddish LAB LAB 33 Bassetlaw LAB LAB 21 Burton CON CON 6 Derby North LAB LAB 9 Bath LIB LIB 16 Bury North CON LAB 2 Derby South LAB LAB 22 Batley and Spen LAB LAB 15 Bury South LAB LAB 14 Derbyshire Dales CON CON 27 Battersea CON CON 6 Bury St Edmunds CON CON 24 Derbyshire Mid CON CON 17 Beaconsfield CON CON 40 Caerphilly LAB LAB 30 Derbyshire North East LAB LAB 12 Beckenham CON CON 36 Caithness Sutherland and EasterLIB RossSNP 33 Derbyshire South CON CON 8 Bedford CON LAB 4 Calder Valley CON CON 5 Devizes CON CON 35 Bedfordshire Mid CON CON 31 Camberwell and Peckham LAB LAB 54 Devon Central CON CON 25 Bedfordshire North East CON CON 33 Camborne and Redruth CON CON 9 Devon East CON CON 25 Bedfordshire South West CON CON 26 Cambridge LIB LAB 2 Devon North LIB LIB 2 Bermondsey and Old Southwark LIB LIB 1 Cambridgeshire North East CON CON 24 Devon South West CON CON 35 Berwick-upon-Tweed LIB CON 3 Cambridgeshire North West CON CON 27 Devon West and Torridge CON CON 14 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkLIB SNP 5 Cambridgeshire South CON CON 24 Dewsbury CON LAB 4 Bethnal Green and Bow LAB LAB 31 Cambridgeshire South East CON CON 20 Don Valley LAB LAB 16 Beverley and Holderness CON CON 19 Cannock Chase CON CON 1 Doncaster Central LAB LAB 23 Bexhill and Battle CON CON 31 Canterbury CON CON 21 Doncaster North LAB LAB 33 Bexleyheath and Crayford CON CON 17 Cardiff Central LIB LAB 6 Dorset Mid and Poole North LIB CON 8 Birkenhead LAB LAB 50 Cardiff North CON LAB 7 Dorset North CON CON 23 Birmingham Edgbaston LAB LAB 10 Cardiff South and Penarth LAB LAB 19 Dorset South CON CON 9 Birmingham Erdington LAB LAB 17 Cardiff West LAB LAB 19 Dorset West CON CON 15 Birmingham Hall Green LAB LAB 11 Carlisle CON LAB 5 Dover CON CON 4 Birmingham Hodge Hill LAB LAB 44 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Plaid Plaid 7 Dudley North LAB LAB 7 Birmingham Ladywood LAB LAB 47 Carmarthen West and PembrokeshireCON CONSouth 2 Dudley South CON CON 4 Birmingham Northfield LAB LAB 14 Carshalton and Wallington LIB LIB 0 Dulwich and West Norwood LAB LAB 33 Birmingham Perry Barr LAB LAB 38 Castle Point CON CON 12 Dumfries and Galloway LAB SNP 8 Birmingham Selly Oak LAB LAB 15 Ceredigion LIB LIB 7 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCON SNP 9 Birmingham Yardley LIB LAB 11 Charnwood CON CON 23 Dunbartonshire East LIB SNP 26 Bishop Auckland LAB LAB 21 Chatham and Aylesford CON CON 8 Dunbartonshire West LAB SNP 0 Blackburn LAB LAB 30 Cheadle LIB CON 4 Dundee East SNP SNP 48 Blackley and Broughton LAB LAB 44 Chelmsford CON CON 19 Dundee West LAB SNP 25 Blackpool North and Cleveleys CON LAB 1 Chelsea and Fulham CON CON 38 Dunfermline and West Fife LAB SNP 15 Blackpool South LAB LAB 12 Cheltenham LIB LIB 0 Durham North LAB LAB 37 Blaenau Gwent LAB LAB 33 Chesham and Amersham CON CON 41 Durham North West LAB LAB 30 Blaydon LAB LAB 38 Chester, City of CON LAB 1 Durham, City of LAB LAB 24 Blyth Valley LAB LAB 33 Chesterfield LAB LAB 18 Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Plaid 26 Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonCON CON 25 Chichester CON CON 34 Ealing Central and Acton CON CON 1 Bolsover LAB LAB 32 Chingford and Woodford Green CON CON 25 Ealing North LAB LAB 28 Bolton North East LAB LAB 16 Chippenham LIB CON 4 Ealing Southall LAB LAB 31 Bolton South East LAB LAB 29 Chipping Barnet CON CON 18 Easington LAB LAB 48 Bolton West LAB LAB 7 Chorley LAB LAB 11 East Ham LAB LAB 64 Table columns are: "2010" = Winning party in 2010, "Pred" = Predicted winner in 2015, and "Maj" = Predicted majority in vote share %. 1 ©2015 Martin Baxter ELECTORAL CALCULUS SLIDESHEETS 2015 All Seats - Page Two Name___________________ 2010 Pred Maj Name___________________ 2010 Pred Maj Name___________________ 2010 Pred Maj East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLAB SNP 14 Hartlepool LAB LAB 21 Lincoln CON LAB 5 East Lothian LAB SNP 21 Harwich and North Essex CON CON 19 Linlithgow and East Falkirk LAB SNP 20 Eastbourne LIB CON 3 Hastings and Rye CON LAB 2 Liverpool Riverside LAB LAB 52 Eastleigh LIB CON 2 Havant CON CON 26 Liverpool Walton LAB LAB 66 Eddisbury CON CON 24 Hayes and Harlington LAB LAB 32 Liverpool Wavertree LAB LAB 36 Edinburgh East LAB SNP 27 Hazel Grove LIB LIB 5 Liverpool West Derby LAB LAB 57 Edinburgh North and Leith LAB SNP 24 Hemel Hempstead CON CON 22 Livingston LAB SNP 22 Edinburgh South LAB SNP 22 Hemsworth LAB LAB 28 Llanelli LAB LAB 15 Edinburgh South West LAB SNP 20 Hendon CON LAB 6 Loughborough CON CON 0 Edinburgh West LIB SNP 26 Henley CON CON 39 Louth and Horncastle CON CON 23 Edmonton LAB LAB 30 Hereford and South HerefordshireCON CON 15 Ludlow CON CON 31 Ellesmere Port and Neston LAB LAB 16 Herefordshire North CON CON 30 Luton North LAB LAB 24 Elmet and Rothwell CON CON 2 Hertford and Stortford CON CON 33 Luton South LAB LAB 13 Eltham LAB LAB 11 Hertfordshire North East CON CON 31 Macclesfield CON CON 20 Enfield North CON LAB 2 Hertfordshire South West CON CON 36 Maidenhead CON CON 41 Enfield Southgate CON CON 11 Hertsmere CON CON 31 Maidstone and The Weald CON CON 21 Epping Forest CON CON 30 Hexham CON CON 17 Makerfield LAB LAB 36 Epsom and Ewell CON CON 38 Heywood and Middleton LAB LAB 21 Maldon CON CON 36 Erewash CON LAB 2 High Peak CON CON 3 Manchester Central LAB LAB 44 Erith and Thamesmead LAB LAB 19 Hitchin and Harpenden CON CON 35 Manchester Gorton LAB LAB 35 Esher and Walton CON CON 42 Holborn and St Pancras LAB LAB 35 Manchester Withington LIB LAB 13 Exeter LAB LAB 12 Hornchurch and Upminster CON CON 24 Mansfield LAB LAB 18 Falkirk LAB SNP 27 Hornsey and Wood Green LIB LAB 6 Meon Valley CON CON 32 Fareham CON CON 34 Horsham CON CON 29 Meriden CON CON 24 Faversham and Kent Mid CON CON 32 Houghton and Sunderland SouthLAB LAB 36 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney LAB LAB 30 Feltham and Heston LAB LAB 17 Hove CON LAB 3 Middlesbrough LAB LAB 30 Fife North East LIB SNP 22 Huddersfield LAB LAB 18 Middlesbrough South and ClevelandLAB EastLAB 10 Filton and Bradley Stoke CON CON 8 Hull East LAB LAB 29 Midlothian LAB SNP 23 Finchley and Golders Green CON CON 6 Hull North LAB LAB 18 Milton Keynes North CON CON 10 Folkestone and Hythe CON CON 24 Hull West and Hessle LAB LAB 25 Milton Keynes South CON CON 3 Forest of Dean CON CON 16 Huntingdon CON CON 25 Mitcham and Morden LAB LAB 40 Fylde CON CON 26 Hyndburn LAB LAB 13 Mole Valley CON CON 39 Gainsborough CON CON 26 Ilford North CON CON 6 Monmouth CON CON 16 Garston and Halewood LAB LAB 49 Ilford South LAB LAB 31 Montgomeryshire CON CON 15 Gateshead LAB LAB 43 Inverclyde LAB SNP 7 Moray SNP SNP 43 Gedling LAB LAB 10 Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyLIB SNP 33 Morecambe and Lunesdale CON LAB 4 Gillingham and Rainham CON CON 12 Ipswich CON LAB 2 Morley and Outwood LAB LAB 8 Glasgow Central LAB SNP 15 Isle of Wight CON CON 22 Motherwell and Wishaw LAB SNP 0 Glasgow East LAB SNP 2 Islington North LAB LAB 47 Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)SNP SNP 52 Glasgow North LAB SNP 19 Islington South and Finsbury LAB LAB 27 Neath LAB LAB 29 Glasgow North East LAB LAB 13 Islwyn LAB LAB 36 New Forest East
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