POWER OF THE BLACK VOTE IN 2015 The Changing Face of England & Wales Parliamentary seats and their voters Sponsored by Table of Contents 3 Foreword - Simon Woolley 4-5 Executive Summary 6-7 List of Marginal Seats Measured by BME Impact 8 Voting and turnout 9 Methodology 10 BME Population 11 Individual BME Communities 12 Labour’s Challenge 13 Conservative’s Opportunity 14 Lib Dem’s Watershed 15 MP’s Vulnerable to BME Vote 16-63 Analysis of Parliamentary Seats © Operation Black Vote - August 2013 Researched, written and designed by Lester Holloway 2Assistance from Louise Alexander Changing Face of Britain Foreword lack and minority ethnic unemployment, education, Bvoters have been handed health and housing. the greatest opportunity ever What is also interesting about to effectively engage in British this data is the shift of where politics. BME political power has been. In Our groundbreaking research the past it was almost exclusively clearly shows that the BME vote in urban, inner city areas which could easily decide over 160 seats. barely changed political hands. The Coalition Government has Today this change is not only oc- governed the UK with a working curring in urban areas such as majority of just 83 seats. The data Croydon, Harrow and Ealing but that we are publishing therefore also outside urban areas, such speaks volumes; In a 168 marginal as Corby, Rossendale & Darwin, seats the BME electorate is larger Cheadle and Loughborough. than the majority in which the With this report we relish the seat was won. The BME electorate challenge to inspire an often cyni- could influence an even greater cal electorate to engage as never number of seats if, as predicted, before, and simultaneously to the election contest becomes ever inform our political leaders that tighter. putting race equality back on the What does all this mean? First agenda is no longer an option but and foremost it means that BME rather a question about their own communities have a stronger po- political survival. litical lever than ever to demand that Party bosses draw up policy Simon Woolley plans to tackle persistent race National Coordinator inequalities, particularly around Operation Black Vote Changing Face of Britain 3 Executive Summary very parliamentary constit- munities live in swing seats which will Euency in England and Wales form the key battlegrounds at the forth- - all 573 - are analysed in this coming election in 2015. report by comparing the latest It is accepted wisdom in political circles 2011 population census data that between 100 and 130 seats will de- with the results of the 2010 termine the result in 2015. That means general election. the ‘Black vote’ will undoubtedly have a major impact. This exercise has revealed that 241 constituencies (42 percent) in Eng- Many of the 73 ‘safe’ seats with a BME land and Wales have BME electorates electorate larger than the MP’s major- larger than the 2010 majorities of the ity are only ‘safe’ because the sitting MP sitting MP when measured against and their party enjoy the support of the the 2011 census and counting only BME electorate. However traditional the voting electorate. patterns of voting are changing as Brit- Critically, 168 of these constitu- encies are in marginal seats which could probably decide the next Gov- ernment. These seats are listed on pages 6-7 along with 37 more which have BME electorates less than the MPs majority but where BME voters can still have a significant bearing on the election outcome, particu- larly in a close race. Therefore if the 2015 election is neck-and-neck there ish-born decendents of immigrants faith, geography and the extent of could be 205 constituencies where increasingly make political choices local political activity. the BME vote could heavily influence independent of their parents and However on another level the con- the result. grandparents, so these seats - the cept of a ‘Black vote’ is credible. The vast majority held by Labour - may 168 seats equates to over a quarter reputation of each party and, to a lesser not always remain safe in future. (29 percent) of all constituencies in extent, of the individual candidates in This process will almost certainly in- England and Wales. Therefore almost terms of how sympathetic or under- crease the power of the ‘Black vote’ one-third of MP’s can be voted in or standing they are towards the particu- over time as an ever-growing pro- out depending on the extent that lar issues and challenges facing BME portion become floating voters. they, and their party, appeals to BME communities in general and specific voters. The concept of a ‘Black vote’ has race and faith communities has a major This figure debunks the stereotype been questioned on one level; BME impact on voting. communities are not homogenious that BME communities are mostly Policies to specifically address dis- in their voting patterns. Within each concentrated in ‘safe’ Labour seats proportionate racial disadvantage community and household dif- and therefore not significant in and BME political representation ferent political choices are made, terms of electoral impact. Although matter. So while ‘race’ has been off influenced by a range of factors in- ‘inner city’ seats do indeed contain a just over half of all seats (285) have a cluding general policies of the par- high proportion BME communities, BME population which is larger than ties, and issues of the day but also the overall picture across England the majorities of the sitting MP’s. and Wales is that many BME com- impacted by socio-economic status, 4 Changing Face of Britain principally the This report has analyised the BME result of two electorate; voters who will be aged key factors; 18 years and above at the 2015 the significant general election. As the Methdol- increase in the ogy page explains, we have cal- BME elector- culated this data on the basis of ate between the population aged 15 years and the 2001 and above in the 2011 census. 2011 popula- If we counted the overall BME tion census, population, regardless of their and the fact age, the number of seats where that the 2010 the BME population exceeds the general elec- MP’s majority rises to 286, an in- tion produced crease of 10 percent or 27 seats. more marginal This is a significant indicator of the seats because number of constituencies that will it was a closer decide future election results. general elec- tion than 2005. Currently 2011 census data for parliamentary constituencies is A third, less only available for England and significant, fac- Wales. When Scotland becomes tor is the rise in available Operation Black Vote Mixed Race vot- plan to update this report. It is ex- ers in marginal pected that this would add more rural and town marginal seats where the BME c o n s t i t u e n - of the eight Birmingham seats as electorate is larger than the MP’s cies where their population where, well as both seats in Blackpool, majority. Brighton, Newport, Northhampton, though relatively small, neverthe- Norwich, Oxford, Plymouth, Ports- less has an impact on primarily rural mouth and Milton Keynes; two out or semi-rural ultra-marginal seats. ‘Safe’ seats: 368 of three seats in Coventry, Leicester Marginal seats have majorities and Newcastle; and all three seats in of less than 6,000, although a Southampton. None of these towns handful of seats with majorities of and cities fit the mould of being under 7,000 qualify for this defini- BME Electorate BME Electorate Larger than Majority: 168 more than half typical ly ‘inner city’ yet they are all tion because they have shown a Majority: 37 examples of places outside London propensity to swing between dif- where the ‘Black vote’ could play a ferent parties from one election decisive role. to the next, particularly if the seat England & Wales. Electorate only (18 years + at 2015 general election) The last OBV study, before the changed hands in 2010, or they 2010 election, found 99 mar- are targeted as realistic prospects ginal seats with a BME elector- by the main challenging party. ate larger than the MP’s majority. Three seats with current majori- ties of between 7,000 and 10,000 The dramatic rise to 168 seats changed between parties in 2010. today (a 70 percent increase) is Changing Face of Britain 5 Marginals where BME vote can win it Marginal seats ranked in order of BME impact measuring the size of MPs’ 2010 majority against the size of the BME electorate. Colour-coded by the Party currently holding the seat. BME voters are projected calculations for the electorate in 2015 based on the 2011 population census (see Methdology, page 9). Majority: 42 Majority: 1,526 Majority: 4,581 1 Hampstead & Kilburn BME Voters: 32,802 35 Dewsbury BME Voters: 17,413 69 Oxford East BME Voters: 21,332 Majority: 106 Majority: 2,879 Majority: 2,079 2 Hendon BME Voters: 40,866 36 Croydon Central BME Voters: 32,389 70 Ipswich BME Voters: 9,355 Majority: 92 Majority: 333 Majority: 549 3 Thurrock BME Voters: 14,892 37 Lancaster & Fleet’ BME Voters: 3,675 71 Chesterfield BME Voters: 2,465 Majority: 165 Majority: 4,658 Majority: 1,818 4 Sheffield Central BME Voters: 23,612 38 Feltham & Heston BME Voters: 50,600 72 Burnley BME Voters: 8,054 Majority: 103 Majority: 3,259 Majority: 978 5 Oldham E & S’worth BME Voters: 13,846 39 Streatham BME Voters: 35,200 73 Telford BME Voters: 4,304 Majority: 365 Majority: 2,524 Majority: 4,545 6 Bradford East BME Voters: 39,063 40 Tooting BME Voters: 26,678 74 Leeds North East BME Voters: 19,932 Majority: 54 Majority: 3,716 Majority: 4,472 7 North Warwickshire BME Voters: