Issues for the Future by BRETT WALTON
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SPRING 2009 JACKSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Central Asian Waters: Issues for the Future BY BRETT WALTON For you and me, the weather is a topic of idle chatter, or perhaps a benign salvo lead- ing to discussion of weightier matters. But in Central Asia, elemental forces like sun and rain are the stuff of heavy debate. Th e region is one of many in the world in which changes in the weather track closely with political and social stability. A cold winter, as in 2007–08, can overwhelm domestic energy sources, strain cross-border trade agreements and relegate residents to burn- ing furniture for fuel. A dry summer like last year’s can cause a collapse in agricul- tural output, a restriction on crop exports and panic over food shortages. For an arid region such as Central Asia, © BRETT WALTON the importance of water is diffi cult The author, with Ak-Sai glacier in Kyrgyzstan’s Ala-Archa National Park behind him. to understate. The Uzbeks have scores water, there is life. Ariqdan suv uzilmasa, Sea basin is used for irrigation.2 Th is is of proverbs refl ecting this. Suv bor savatdan non arimac — If water stops where competing uses, political interests, yerda hayot bor — In a place where coming from an ariq, bread will disappear effi ciency and infrastructure collide. there is water, there is life. from the baskets.1 Th e problem with water Th is article will lay out several impor- comes from its uses outside of human tant issues for the waters of Central Asia consumption. If we only needed water for in the coming decades. Climate change, Th e tie that binds these scenarios is drinking and sanitation, quantity would transboundary management and infra- water. For an arid region such as Central never be a concern because humans use structure development are three factors Asia, the importance of water is diffi cult to such a small fraction. Problems arise with aff ecting the future of the resource. Note understate. Th e Uzbeks have scores of sectoral demands on water — that is, that these are not the only concerns, but proverbs refl ecting this. Suv bor yerda water for agriculture and industry. More rather the ones that are most pressing. hayot bor — In a place where there is than 90 percent of the water in the Aral (continued on page 2) INSIDE THIS ISSUE Ellison Center News ............................................................................. 5 Nicholas Poppe Symposium on Inner/Central Asian Studies Recent Acquisitions in the REECAS Outreach Collection ....................... 6 Call for Papers ......................................................................................14 REECAS NW Conference ...................................................................... 7 The Donald W. Treadgold Studies ....................................................... 15 From Tashkent to Kazan: Reconstructing the Debate on the Holding onto the Past: Bulgaria 20 Years after Communism .................16 “Muslim Question” in Late Imperial Russia ........................................... 8 New Faculty and Visiting Scholars ...................................................... 20 UW Intensive Language Programs ........................................................11 Summer Seminar for Educators .............................................................22 Staring Back: The Field Work Experience of a Graduate Campaign UW .......................................................................................23 Student of Color in Latvia .....................................................................12 Upcoming Ellison Center Events ...........................................................24 2 REECAS NEWSLETTER / SPRING 2009 (continued from page 1) Climate Change fl oods. Th ousands of lakes Th e eff ects of climate change are expressed sit in glacial cirques in the in various shades of uncertainty. Th e Inter- mountains of Kyrgyzstan governmental Panel on Climate Change and Tajikistan. Rapidly in- uses dozens of models to account for vari- creasing meltwater will ability in climatic and human use patterns. increase the volume of Average temperatures have risen region- these lakes and may cause ally by 1.85 degrees C in the winter and natural earthen dams to 0.69 degrees C in the summer for the break and to fl ood unpre- period from 1983 to 2002.3 Th e extensive pared downstream villages. irrigation network seems to be moderat- High seismic activity in ing summer temperatures, producing the the area also increases the same eff ect the Aral Sea once had. Th ere risk. Lake Sarez in Tajiki- is a consensus that more water will be stan is the most threaten- available in the short term for Central ing such lake. It holds 16 Asia. An increase in evapotranspiration of billion cubic meters of surface water will be off set by a slight in- water, enough to fl ood crease in rainfall and an increase in glacial 55,000 km2 and displace melting.4 Glaciers in the Tien Shan and six million people.6 Be- the Pamirs are decreasing in area at an cause of their remoteness, average rate of one percent per year.5 Th is monitoring these lakes is is a potentially dangerous situation for diffi cult, and the Central long-term use. Th e short-term increase will Asian governments do not lead to an eventual decrease in river dis- have the fi nancial resourc- charge as the glacier mass recedes. If water es for sophisticated moni- managers use present fl ow rates as a basis toring systems. Satellite for long-term allocations, there will be monitoring is one possible, © BRETT WALTON future shortages, as no long-term models albeit imperfect, way to An urban ariq in Bukhara. show an increase in water fl ow. collect data. Climate change will also disrupt his- tric capacity, but as a secondary use. In torical hydrological fl ow patterns. Glaciers Transboundary Management exchange for irrigation water, downstream act as natural reservoirs, releasing winter Th e main transboundary river systems of republics bought excess electricity gener- snow slowly throughout the summer. Central Asia are the Amu Darya, Syr ated by the hydroelectric plants in the Climate models predict that higher winter Darya, Irtysh and Ili. Th e Amu Darya be- summer and provided natural gas and oil temperatures will lead to more winter gins in Tajikistan, fl ows along the Tajik- for winter heating in upstream republics.8 fl oods and an earlier spring melt, moving Afghan border, and meanders between Because irrigation was the primary focus, river discharge peaks earlier in the year. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan before end- Uzbekistan was allocated approximately Th is will mean less water available in the ing at the Aral Sea. In dry years, water 60 percent of the water in the Aral Sea peak summer irrigation months of July does not reach the sea.7 Th e Syr Darya basin, even though less than 10 percent of has its headwaters in Kyrgyzstan before the basin’s water resources drain from its fl owing through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, territory.9 Centralized control from Mos- If water managers use present fl ow Uzbekistan again, and southern Kazakh- cow ensured that the system functioned. rates as a basis for long-term stan, draining into the northern Aral Sea. After independence in 1991, the newly Th e Irtysh is shared by China, Kazakhstan formed states decided to keep the Soviet allocations, there will be future and Russia; the Ili is shared by China and management and allocation system in shortages, as no long-term models Kazakhstan and drains into Lake Balkhash. place, more to maintain stability than to show an increase in water fl ow. Th is article mainly deals with the Amu satisfy governments. Since then, rivalries Darya and Syr Darya. between states, economic realities and in- During Soviet rule, Central Asia was ternational donor competition caused ini- and August. One response is to build managed as one hydrological unit despite tial cooperation to breakdown. Uzbekistan more dams to hold the earlier snowmelt, the existence of republic boundaries. Res- was the locus of the scientifi c, technical the ramifi cations of which will be ex- ervoirs were placed in upstream Tajikistan and administrative water institutions dur- plored later. and Kyrgyzstan to be used for storing ing the Soviet era and it sought to main- Another consequence of glacial melting water to irrigate the cotton crop in the tain that dominance. International donors is an increased risk of glacial lake outburst summer. Dams were built with hydroelec- and multi-lateral agencies (USAID, the REECAS NEWSLETTER / SPRING 2009 3 World Bank, United Nations Development and 20 percent of the average annual fl ow.11 Program and the European Union) had After independence in 1991, the Years of war and instability have limited trouble centralizing any institution, not newly formed states decided to keep development, but there are plans for ex- wanting to alienate one state at the the Soviet management and allocation pansion of irrigated agriculture. Th e eff ect expense of another. Th e result was the cre- these future withdrawals will have on system in place, more to maintain ation of redundant institutions with the basin’s water balance is uncertain. competing interests and no clear defi ni- stability than to satisfy governments. Afghanistan has not been party to post- tion of purpose. Two bodies oversaw the Since then, rivalries between states, Soviet basin management discussions, but Aral Sea rehabilitation program, but they economic reality and international it will need to be included in subsequent could not function properly because