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Sino-Indian Competition for the Resources of Central Asia; Implications for Pakistan

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Sino-Indian Competition for the Resources of Central Asia; Implications for Pakistan SINO-INDIAN COMPETITION FOR THE RESOURCES OF CENTRAL ASIA; IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN Quaid Ali Department of Political Science Hazara University Mansehra, Pakistan 2019 SINO-INDIAN COMPETITION FOR THE RESOURCES OF CENTRAL ASIA; IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN Quaid Ali Roll No.34882 A thesis submitted to Hazara University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE HAZARA UNIVERSITY MANSEHRA, PAKISTAN 2019 SINO-INDIAN COMPETITION FOR THE RESOURCES OF CENTRAL ASIA; IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN BY QUAID ALI SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE Research Supervisor: Dr. Muhammad Ayaz Khan Department of Political Science Co-supervisor: Dr. Abdur Rehman Department of Political Science DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE HAZARA UNIVERSITY MANSEHRA, PAKISTAN 2019 Declaration of the Supervisor It is hereby certified that the thesis entitled, “Sino-Indian Competition for the Resources of Central Asia; Implications for Pakistan” the original work of Mr. Quaid Ali and has not been presented and submitted previously for PhD. Quaid Ali has done this research work under my supervision. He has fulfilled all the requirements and is qualified to submit the thesis for the degree of PhD in Political Science. Dr. Muhammad Ayaz Khan Author‘s Declaration I Quaid Ali hereby state that my PhD thesis entitled, “Sino-Indian Competition for the Resources of Central Asia; Implications for Pakistan” is my own work and has not been submitted previously by me for taking my degree from this University, Hazara University Mansehra or anywhere else in the county/world. At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after my graduate the University has the right to with draw my PhD degree. Name of the Student: Quaid Ali Date: 04-07-2019 i Plagiarism Undertaking I solemnly declare that the research work presented in the thesis entitled, “Sino-Indian Competition for the Resources of Central Asia; Implications for Pakistan” is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other person. Small contribution/help whenever taken has been duly acknowledged and the complete thesis has been written by me. I understand the zero tolerance policy of the HEC and the University, Hazara University Mansehra, towards plagiarism. Therefore I as the author of the above titled thesis declare that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis even after award of PhD degree, the University reserves the rights to withdraw/revoke my PhD degree and that HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on the HEC/University Website on which names of the students are placed who submitted plagiarized thesis. Student/Author Signature:_______________ Name: Quaid Ali ii Dedication To my respected Parents, wife and my family Without whose love and prayers I could not have become What I am now. iii Acknowledgement First of all I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my honorific supervisor Professor Dr. Muhammad Ayaz Khan, who started PhD program in the department of political science and enrolled me in the program. He accepted me as a PhD student without reluctance. Later on, he offered me so much advice, patiently supervising me, and always guided me in the right direction. He treated me like a brother and his family member. I have learned a lot from him, and without his help I could not have complete my dissertation. Special thanks are also given to Professor Dr. Abdur Rehman who has taken serious interests in research activities, promoted research culture and has extended all help to the scholars of the department. His encouragement made me feel confident to fulfill my desire and to overcome every difficulty I encountered. My friends Mr. Sajid Hussain, Anwar Ali, Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Ejaz Khan, Asad Ullah and Hafiz Javed Ur Rehman encouraged me and provided me a lot of friendly help. I would also like to convey my whole hearted thanks to the faculty members of department of Political Science, Hazara University Mansehra for providing me an ideal and friendly environment for research. There are so many other friends who offered me so much kind help. I give my sincere thanks to all these people. I owe this achievement to my mother, brothers, sisters and other family members; without whose prayer and cooperation, I would not be able to complete this difficult task. It would not be justice to ignore one person, my iv elder brother, Haji Arsala Khan. He has played a vital role throughout my whole educational career. He was keen for the completion for this research work as such. He always motivated me and encouraged me in hardship situations. I am very grateful of my wife. Her love and understanding encourage me to work hard and to pursue PhD studies. Her firm support and motivation was a source of encouragement for me. When I was writing this dissertation she might have suffered which was very difficult for her, merely to enable me to concentrate on my research. Quaid Ali v Table of Contents Page Dedication Iii Acknowledgment Iv Abbreviations Viii List of Tables Ix List of figures Ix Abstract X Introduction 1 Chapter 1 18 Sino India relations in historical perspective 18 1.1 The 1954 Agreement and the 1962 Border Conflict 19 1.2 The war of 1962 26 1.3 The Sino-Indian Cold War 27 1.4 Progress in the Sino-Indian Relations since 1976 29 1.5 Current Dynamics (2003-2016) 35 1.6 China-Pakistan-India triangle 47 Chapter 2 51 Economic potential of Central Asia 51 2.1 Importance of CARs 52 2.2 Economic potential of cars 57 2.3 Oil 59 2.4 Natural gas 67 2.5 Mineral and Strategic Resources 71 2.6 Hydropower Sector 74 2.7 Agro-Industry 76 2.8 Leather Industry 77 2.9 Silk and Textile Industry 77 2.10 Actual Production versus Capacity 79 Chapter 3 82 China’s relations with Central Asia 82 3.1 The break-up of the Soviet Union 82 3.2 Great power rivalry 83 3.3 The Roots of the Sino-Central Asia relationship 84 3.4 China‘s entry into Central Asia 86 3.5 China‘s goals in Central Asia 89 3.6 SCO as a tool with China 101 3.7 China‘s new strategy towards CARs 104 3.8 Military and Security Cooperation 107 3.9 New routs 108 3.10 Risks Associated With Doing Business in Central Asia 109 Chapter 4 112 India’s relations with Central Asia 112 4.1 History of India-CARs relations 113 vi 4.2 Relations after Soviet Union‘s disintegration 116 4.3 India-CARs‘ areas of interest 116 4.4 India‘s Connect central Asia Policy 123 4.5 TAPI 126 4.6 BTC 128 4.7 North South Transport Corridor 128 4.8 Bilateral Relations with CARs 130 4.9 Patterns of trade between India and CARs 138 4.10 Challenges for India in CARs 143 4.11 India‘s response to the challenges 144 Chapter 5 147 A comparative analysis of struggle between China and India for the 147 riches of Central Asia 5.1 History of Great power‘s Struggle in Central Asia 149 5.2 China and India in New great game 151 5.3 Sino Indian competition 153 5.4 China factor in SCO 161 5.5 Iranian ports 163 5.6 Competing Strategic Objectives 166 5.7 China‘s dominance over India in CARs 172 5.8 Indian efforts for rapprochement 174 5.9 Obstacles to rapprochement 175 Chapter 6 177 Implications for Pakistan 177 6.1 Pakistan as a key player 177 6.2 Current Geopolitics 179 6.3 China‘s Energy and Trade Policy 181 6.4 Gwadar Port 183 6.5 CPEC 186 6.6 Iranian port of Chabahar 191 6.7 IPI 194 6.8 TAPI 199 6.9 Kashmir issue 203 6.10 SCO and Pakistan 206 Chapter 7 208 Conclusion 208 Recommendations 219 Bibliography 223 vii Abbreviations BTC Baku Tblisi Cehan CARs Central Asian Republics CNPC China National Petroleum Corporations CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor FDI Foreign Direct Investment FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product IPI Iran Pakistan India KCO Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company KMG Kaz Munai Gas LAC Line of Actual Control NSG Nuclear Supplier Group ONGC Oil and Natural Gas Corporation PLA People Liberation Army SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats TAPI Tajikistan Afghanistan Pakistan India TALCO Tajik Aluminum Company TCO Tengiz Chevr Oil viii List of Tables S.No Title Page# 2.1 Main Potential of CARS 57 2.2 Central Asian Republics Oil Production at end of 2012 60 2.3 Central Asian Republics Proven Gas Reserves 68 3.1 China‘s trade with CARs 2012 106 3.2 Population and land area 139 3.3 Total exports of Central Asian Countries and India (billion 140 US$) 3.4 Total imports of Central Asian Countries and India (billion 141 US $) 3.5 Trade between Central Asia and India during 2013-2014 142 List of figures S.No Title Page# 1.1 The Sino-Indian Disputed Border Area 20 6.1 Location of Gwadar port of Pakistan 184 6.2 IPI and TAPI 195 6.3 India China Disputed Territory 205 ix Abstract The friendly relations between India and China started after 1949 but got strained very soon as a result of the border issues. The relations got normalized after 1980s. Though they are trying to maintain their cordial relations but still there is competition on economic and strategic level.
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