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Final Report – Main Report Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union Final Report – Main Report Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union This report has been financed by the European Commission, Directorate-General MOVE. Reference R20110267/31452000/MQU/CWI Zoetermeer, December 2011 The present publication reflects the outcome of a dedicated study commissioned by the European Commission - Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. The opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or position of the Commission on the issue. Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 Introduction 7 Study objectives 8 Background 8 Assessment of the present industry performance and challenges from the supply side and demand side of the market 12 Key problems and challenges for IWT 14 Prospects for 2020 and 2040 in a baseline scenario 18 Policy objectives 22 Policy package 1: Measures to raise modal share of inland waterway transport 23 Policy Package 2: Measures aiming at reducing environmental, climate change and safety impacts 30 Policy Package 3: Measures aiming at improving market conditions for operators and users of IWT 38 Implementation and monitoring 41 1 INTRODUCTION 43 1.1 Objectives and Background of the Study 43 1.2 The present situation and outlook for the IWT industry 44 1.2.1 Looking back at the developments in the past years 44 1.2.2 Modal share and important cargo flows for IWT 47 1.2.3 Production value and added value for society 49 1.2.4 Supply side environment: enterprises, fleet, capacity utilisation, prices and revenues 49 1.3 European policy framework 51 1.3.1 EU 2020 Strategy 51 1.3.2 European Transport policy and IWT 52 1.3.3 NAIADES action programme 2006-2013 53 1.3.4 REGINA: Reflection group on inland navigation 54 1.3.5 Danube Region Strategy 55 2 APPROACH 57 2.1 General considerations 57 2.1.1 Chosen project structure 57 2.1.2 Stakeholder analyses 59 2.2 Systematic policy analysis framework 67 2.3 Baseline Scenario 71 2.4 Reporting the results 72 3 FIELD 1: MARKETS & AWARENESS 73 3.1 Overview present situation and outlook 2020 and 2040 73 3.1.1 Coal fired power plants 75 3.1.2 Steel industry 78 3.1.3 Petroleum and chemical industry 82 R20110267.doc 3 December, 2011 Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union 3.1.4 Containers 87 3.1.5 Agribulk 92 3.1.6 Construction industry 96 3.1.7 Sea-river transport 99 3.1.8 Modal share inland waterway transport EU27 102 3.1.9 Developments per corridor 105 3.1.10 New markets for Inland Waterway Transport 109 3.2 Main problems 114 3.3 Long list of measures 117 4 FIELD 2: FLEET 121 4.1 Overview present situation and outlook 2020, 2040 business as usual 121 4.1.1 Current available fleet by number of vessels and total tonnage 121 4.1.2 Average year of construction 126 4.1.3 Age of engines 130 4.1.4 Environmental performance of IWT 132 4.1.5 External cost calculations 142 4.1.6 Incentives for a cleaner IWT fleet 144 4.1.7 Growth rates fleet 2020 and 2040 in the business as usual scenarios 148 4.2 Main problems 150 4.3 Long list of measures 152 5 FIELD 3: EMPLOYMENT & EDUCATION 155 5.1 Overview present situation and outlook 2020, 2040 business as usual 155 5.1.1 Current situation 155 5.1.2 Outlook for 2020 and 2040 162 5.2 Main problems 164 5.3 Long list of measures 168 6 FIELD 4: INFRASTRUCTURE 171 6.1 Overview present situation and outlook 2020, 2040 business as usual 171 6.1.1 Introduction 171 6.1.2 Size and bottlenecks of the waterway networks 174 6.1.3 Bottlenecks on the waterway networks 181 6.1.4 Availability and reliability of infrastructure 196 6.1.5 Transhipment locations and inland ports 199 6.2 Main problems 201 6.3 Long list of measures 204 7 FIELD 5: RIVER INFORMATION SERVICES 207 7.1 Overview present situation and outlook 2020, 2040 business as usual 207 7.2 Main problems 210 7.3 Long list of measures 213 4 R20110267.doc December, 2011 Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union 8 THE RECOMMENDED POLICY PACKAGES 215 8.1 Introduction 215 8.2 Policy package 1: Measures to raise modal share of inland waterway transport 216 8.3 Policy package 2: Measures aiming at reducing environmental, climate change and safety impacts 221 8.4 Policy Package 3: Measures aiming at improving market conditions for operators and users of IWT 228 8.5 8.5 Implementation and monitoring 233 8.5.1 Implementation aspects 233 8.5.2 Monitoring 235 LITERATURE OVERVIEW 237 R20110267.doc 5 December, 2011 Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union Executive Summary Introduction This summary presents the key findings and policy recommendations of the study ‘Medium and Long Term Perspectives of Inland Waterway Transport in the European Union’, which was carried out by the consortium led by NEA with the partners Planco, via donau, CE Delft and MDS Transmodal. The study is funded by the European Commission Directorate-General MOVE and started in January 2011 and ended on 23rd of December 2011. The summary starts with an explanation of the study objectives and subsequently sets the background of the study and the current position of Inland Waterway Transport (IWT). Next the assessment of the performance of the industry is presented, seen both from the demand side as well as from the supply side of the market. The results from the SWOT analysis provide the basis to identify the key problems and challenges for IWT for the coming decades. Additionally, a quantitative forecast on the expected transport performance of IWT is given based on a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario for horizons 2020 and 2040. Based on the problem analyses and the outlook the policy objectives are presented and finally the conclusions and recommended policy packages and measures are presented. This provides the strategy for the inland waterway transport policy. In addition to the broad and extensive expertise within the consortium, the basis for this study was provided through desk research, stakeholder consultations on the 5th of July and the 23rd of November 2011 and through a broad range of interviews with key users and operators in the inland waterway transport industry. R20110267.doc 7 December, 2011 Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union Study objectives The study ‘Medium and Long Term Perspectives of Inland Waterway Transport in the European Union’ provides the European Commission with a comprehensive basis to define the inland waterway transport policy within the general transport policy for the medium and long term. The more specific objectives of the study were: to investigate and analyse the current situation of the EU inland waterway transport sector in the context of the economic crisis, to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the sector, to explore the prospects and potential of inland waterway transport within the European transport system in the medium and long term, also taking into account the likely impacts of the economic crisis and the challenges and issues to be tackled in the future, to give concrete recommendations for policy measures with regard to inland waterway transport at EU level and comply with the priorities set out in the Transport White Paper, to make suggestions for the development of a medium and long term European strategy in support of inland waterway transport. Particularly within the framework of rethinking and developing new transport policies, the study provides answers to the further positioning of IWT in the context of the new policy (for instance, the new White Paper on Transport, revised TEN-T Guidelines, EU 2020 agenda). Background Transport policy Transport is fundamental to our economy and society. However, when looking 40 years ahead, it is clear that transport cannot develop along the same path. Oil will become scarcer in the coming decades and will have to be sourced from increasingly uncertain supplies. Furthermore, congestion on the roads and climate change are major concerns, as well as the social costs of accidents and noise. In the recently published White Paper on Transport ‘Roadmap to a single European Transport Area- Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system’ (2011) ambitious goals have been set aimed at substantially reducing oil dependency and carbon emissions without sacrificing efficiency and the freedom of movement that transport offers. The main policy objectives in the White Paper are grouped around three general themes: I. Developing and deploying new and sustainable fuels and propulsion systems. II. Optimising the performance of multimodal logistic chains, including making greater use of more energy-efficient modes. III. Increasing the efficiency of transport and of infrastructure use with information systems and market-based incentives. 8 R20110267.doc December, 2011 Medium and Long Term Perspectives of IWT in the European Union The first theme primarily contains goals for the automotive, airline and maritime shipping industry but it also applies to some extent to IWT. For example the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as an alternative fuel and diesel-electric power trains can be mentioned. The second and third groups contain more direct goals for the IWT industry. IWT is an energy efficient mode and provides capacity on waterways and is therefore marked as one of the modes that should increase its modal share.
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