Survey of Nuclear Politics WNU Summer Institute 2008

Bertrand BARRÉ Professor Emeritus, INSTN – Scientific Advisor AREVA Chairman INEA

1 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 2000 : 6 billion People consumed 10 Gtoe

6,8% Oil Gas 35% Coal Wood,… Nuclear 23,5% Hydro Renew. 21%

2006 : 6.5 billion People consumed 12 Gtoe 2 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear Power 2007 Country GWe TWh Units %Elec USA 99 807 104 19 France 63 420 59 77 Japan 48 267 55 28 Russian Fed. 22 148 31 16 S Korea 18 137 20 35 Germany 20 133 17 26 Canada 13 88 18 15 Ukraine 13 87 15 48 Sweden 9 64 10 46 China 9 59 11 2 WORLD 372 2 608 439 16 WNA June 2008

3 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 52 Years of Nuclear Power

439 reactors in 30 countries 2600 billion kWh/year = Hydro-power > Saudi Oil 16% Electricity 6,5% Primary energy

4 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Climate change is the defining human development issue of our generation Today, we are witnessing at first hand what could be the onset of major human development reversal in our lifetime. Looking to the future, the danger is that it will stall and then reverse progress built-up over generations not just in cutting extreme poverty, but in health, nutrition,education and other areas.

www.undp.org

5 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 IPCC established in 1988

Anthropogenic interference with the climate system ?

WMO UNEP

»IPCC 1990 : Maybe, Maybe not »IPCC 1995 : Maybe »IPCC 2001 : Likely

»IPCC 2007 : Very Likely ! IPCC 2007 Findings Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.

The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.

7 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Add 900 Mt lignite…

! k c ba is l a o C

Source AIE 2007

(less China)

8 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 9 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 « Renaissance » ?

10 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 11 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear Generation Forecasts 2010-2030 (Source : IAEA 2007) TWh 1600

1400

1200

2010 l 1000 2010 h

? 2020 l 800 2020 h

600 2030 l 2030 h

400

200

0 North Latin Western Eastern Africa South Asia Far America America Europe Europe Middle East East

12 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Oklo, Gabon

13 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Fission 1932 - 1942 1932: Chadwick discovers neutron 1938 : Fermi plays with neutrons & U. Hahn-Meitner say «fission !» 1939 : Joliot et al. «chain reaction» 1942 : Staggs Field

14 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The Curse on Nuclear Power

X Because of WW2, the first application of fission was the A-Bomb

15 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The 50s : Nuclear Electricity

1956 : Inauguration of Calder Hall by Elisabeth II

1951 : EBR 1 lits its buiding 1954: Obninsk connected 16 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 X First to start a Power Programme:

X Soviet Union

X United Kingdom

X France

X United States

X Canada

X Sweden

Exports and Licenses (Japan, Gemany)

17 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 DC

400

350 Japan / RoK

300 RF / EE

250

GW(e) 200 Western Europe

150

100

50 North America

0

NA WE Russia & EEJapan & ROKDeveloping

18 - B. Barré1960 WNU Summer 1965 Institute July 1970 2008 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Ups & Downs… but not everywhere at the same time

X First big programs : UK, USA, Soviet Union

X Followers : Japan, Western Europe, Canada

X Relay 80s: France, South Korea

X 90s : stagnation America & Europe, growth in Asia

X Now : « second souffle »

19 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The British Saga (1)

X Tube Alloys associated to the Manhattan Project

X 1945 AERE Harwell, military priority GLEEP 1947-90

X No D2O, no SWU GCRs X Windscale production piles 1950-51

X Magnox series (Calder Hall, October 1956) : 11 sites, 26 units, 5 consortia)

X U enrichi Oxyde AGR (Windscale 1962) 6 sites, 15 units No standardization, Magnox = reprocessing vision : Pu from Magnox to Breeders

20 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Magnox 300 MW & AGR 600 MW

Oldbury A Dungeness B

21 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The British Saga (2)

X Dragon 1964-1974, SGHWR 1968-1990 (in case)

SGHWR

Dragon Project

X FBR Programm at Dounreay: DFR 1959-1977, PFR 1974-1994

22 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The British Saga (3)

X North Sea Oil & Gas (plus Coal)

X Sizewell B 1995-2035 ?

23 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Fuel Cycle in Britain: BNFL Saga

X BNFL separates from UKAEA 1971

X U Mines : RTZ (Ranger, Rössing)

X Enrichment : BNFL shares in URENCO

X Fuel Fabrication : BNFL

X Reprocessing : BNFL (?)

X 1996 BNFL is given the Magnox (ex-CEGB SSEB)

X 1999 BNFL buys Westinghouse from CBS

X 2000 BNFL buys ABB-CE

X 2005 Nuclear Decommissioning Authority

X 2006 BNFL sells Westinghouse to Toshiba, sells BNG/US

X 2007 BNF for sale, Magnox go to NDA, Thorp ???

24 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The Times November 21, 2005

Britain is ready to go nuclear By Philip Webster, Political Editor

Blair courts controversy with power station plan

BRITAIN will start building new civil nuclear power stations under plans backed by Tony Blair, The Times has learnt. Less than two years after a government paper called nuclear power an unattractive option, the Prime Minister has become convinced that building nuclear power stations is the only way to secure energy needs and meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions

25 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear Power in the United States

X Priority to the Bomb…then to the Submarines

26 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 1 : The Beginnings

X 1946 : Mc Mahon Act, establishes USAEC

X 1948 : Westinghouse involved in submarine design

X 1950: General Electric, ditto

X 1951: MTR, EBR1 at INEL (picture 20-12-51)

X 1953: S1W, land-based sub, ancestor PWR. Atoms for Peace Speech.

X 1954: Atomic Energy Act opens Nuclear to private industry and declassifies relevant data

X 1955-57: AEC launches Power Demonstration Program (PWR, BWR, Na-Graphite, HWR, FBR, HTGR). BORAX III lits Arco.

27 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 2 : The Heydays

X 1957: Shippingport 60 MWe PWR, 1st US NPP connected (Shut down 1982, green field 1987)

X 1963-1966 : First turnkey Plants W & GE (costs overruns)

X 1966: 20 orders in the year, « truly commercial »: B&W, CE and GA join the gang, and A/E intervene

X 1972-1972 : > 40 orders/year

Shippingport 1957 Dresden 1960

28 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 3 : 1974, Annus Horribilis

X 1972 West Valley shut down for refurbishing, will not restart. GE abandons Morris

X 1973: Kippour War, 1st Oil shock, Project Independance, Watergate hearings

X 1974: Series of NPP cancellations – AEC split into ERDA and NRC, JAEC dissolved –Smiling Buddah

X 1976: G Ford stops commercial reprocessing

X 1977 (April 7): J Carter kills reprocessing and FBR- ERDA becomes USDOE - INFCE

X 1978: Nuclear Non Proliferation Act. Full Scope Safeguards – End of US enrichment monopoly

X 1979 (March 29) TMI2 Accident. : National Nuclear Scare

29 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 5: The long Road to Recovery

X 1981 R Reagan lifts ban on reprocessing, but no private taker

X 1982: Nuclear Waste Act, Government to take charge of spent fuel Jan 31 1998 - 1 mill/kWh

X 1985 Portsmouth CGEP cancelled (for AVLIS)

X Mid 80s: ALWR FOAK, EPRI URD

X 1986 : Chernobyl Accident (much less impact than in Europe)

X 90s: NRC licensing reform : One-step Licensing, Design Certification, Early Site Approval, COL

X 1998: WIPP receives 1st waste package

30 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 6 : Prelude to Renaissance

X Late 90s: End of NPP shutdowns and Rush to License Extension – Improved Availability, uprates – second-hand market for NPPs Nuclear « Fleets »

X Progress on Yucca Mountain

X Design Certification ABWR, AP600-1000, then ESBWR, EPR

X 2005 Energy Policy Act

31 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Bush à Calvert Cliff, 22 juin 2005

X « It is time for this country to start building nuclear power plants again »

32 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 « GNEP » February 18, 2006 This morning, I want to speak to you about one part of this initiative: our plans to expand the use of safe and clean nuclear power. Nuclear power generates large amounts of low-cost electricity without emitting air pollution or greenhouse gases. Yet nuclear power now produces only about 20 percent of America's electricity. It has the potential to play an even greater role. For example, over the past three decades, France has built 58 nuclear power plants and now gets more than 78 percent of its electricity from nuclear power. Yet here in America, we have not ordered a new nuclear power plant since the 1970s. So last summer I signed energy legislation that offered incentives to encourage the building of new nuclear plants in America. Our goal is to start the construction of new nuclear power plants by the end of this decade.

33 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The«Maybe» Map

34 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The « sure thing » Stats X License Renewal (May 2008) : Š48 Approved (expiration 2029–2046) Š15 Under review (submitted 2005-2008) Š23 « expected » by ANS

35 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Overview of the French Nuclear Program French Pionneer Scientists

1903 Nobel Radioactivity

1911 Nobel Polonium, Radium

Henri Becquerel 1852 - 1908

1935 Nobel Artificial Radioactivity

37 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Solvay 1911 Congress

2 1

X

3 4 5

1 Louis de Broglie 2 Paul Langevin 3 Jean Perrin 4 Marie Curie 5 Raymond Poincarré X Albert Einstein

38 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Confirmation of Fission. Joliot Patents 1939

Joliot, Halban & Kowarsky

39 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Key Dates of the French Nuclear Program

X 1945 Creation of the CEA (Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique) X 1948 Criticality of ZOE X 1956 First experimental generation of nuclear electricity (G1) X 1963 First EDF Nuclear Plant Chinon A1 X 1970 Decision to switch from UNGG to LWR at Fessenheim X 1972 Westinghouse License to Framatome X 1974 « Messmer » Program X 1975 PWR selected, CEA replaces W as Framatome shareholder X 1976 Establishment of COGEMA, opening La Hague UP2 X 1977 First 900 MWe at Fessenheim X 1978 Start-up Eurodif X 1981 End Westinghouse License : No string attached. X 1997 Termination Superphénix X 2000 Start-up Civaux 2, 1500 MWe N4 PWR X 2001 Creation of AREVA X 2006 Commitment EPR

40 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The One overwhelming Motivation behind the Messmer Program

X To reduce our Dependance from imported Oil, after the first oil crisis.*

200 180 X Political consequences 160 140 Š(unstable Middle East) 120 100 80

X Financial consequences 2001/MWh€ 60 40 20 Š(Energy « Bill ») 0

X Economic consequences 1964 1969 1970 1973 1974 1976 1978 1979 1981 1982 1984 1986 1990 1993 1997 2003 Nuclear Coal Fuel-oil Natural gas Š(End of « 3-decade Growth) Š(Securty of Supply) Š(Cost Predictability)

* « En France, on n’a pas de pétrole, mais on a des idées » 41 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The « Messmer » Program : « Mission Impossible » ?

X Order 34 almost identical 900 MWe plants, 6 per year, while :

X The first French 900 MWe PWR was still under construction

X Previous experience with 300 MWe Chooz A1 was only half convincing

X No significant series anywhere else in the western world

X In parallel, start untried 1300 MW series, only 3 years later BUT IT WORKED

42 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 French Nuclear Power Development

Hyd Hyd 14 Nuc 14,1 Nuc 27 Oil Coal 77,4% Coal Other 8 Other 78

1973 : 174 TWh 1996 : 489 TWh

43 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Key Factors of Success

X A perceived need by Government and Public. X A powerful national utilty (EDF), with engineering capability… & worldwide bank credit. X An existing complete Nuclear Background (CEA, Industry, Safety Authority), including trained manpower. X Standardization X Full support by the Licensor (Proven design, Lead Plants) X Supporting R&D (« 4-Partite Program ») X Completeness of the scope (Fuel Cycle, waste management, emergency planing, etc.), now mastered within AREVA X A long term Vision + Commitment (Breeders, even Fusion) X Continuity through political changes (1981)

44 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Some Problems along the Way

X Standardization is basically good (Industry size, Costs, Return of experience, Training of operators … and regulators), but with some drawbacks (Common Modes : under cladding cracks, RPV Heads)

X Generally good Public Acceptance, but with some local exceptions (Plogoff, Le Pellerin), and some problems with foreign neighbours (Fessenheim, Cattenom)

X Focus points for World and/or Europe Protesters (Creys-Malville, La Hague, Bure)

X Brutal loss of public confidence after Chernobyl (and the Oil counter-shock). Claims of « overcapacity » = no longer Feeling of Need

X Bad handling of the Waste Disposal Issue in the 80s.

X Termination Superphénix 1997 (Political)

45 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Standardization

When a common mode failure appears, it affects all units, but with delays in time which allow for timely fixes.

46 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Power Generation in France 1973 - 2004

Gross Power Production

Hydropower Nuclear Fossil

47 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008

EURODIF, George Besse Plant

49 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 La Hague Reprocessing Plant

50 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Law for the Sustainable Management of Radioactive Materials & Waste. June 28, 2006

X Spent Fuel Reprocessing + Recycle

X Interim Storage of HLW and LL-MLW …

X … followed by their reversible disposal in deep geological stratum

X Opening of the Disposal Site before 2025, after local and national consultation.

X Continue R&D on P&T within the « Generation 4 » frame

X Demonstrator in 2020 (CEA)

X Waste producers pay for everything.

X No « foreign » waste disposal in France

51 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA – France – Japan Comparison (Gwe) Programmes nucléaires : USA, France, Japon (puissances en Gwe) 250

200

150 C+CConstruction + Order MOperating 100

50 USA 0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0 70 60 50 40 C+C 30 M 20 10 France 0 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 60 40 C+C 20 Japon M 0

0 8 6 8 7 74 7 82 8 90 94 9 M : en marche C+C : construction & commande 52 -> B.Feedback Barré WNU from Summer the French Institute Nuclear July Program. 2008 BB March 2004 Some Comments on USA & Japan USA Japan

X Largest program in the X 3rd program in the world world X Very continuous effort, and X Invented LWR technology long-term vision

X No domestic order X Technology transfer from completed since 1974 USA

X Side effect of : Oil shock, X Too little standardization overordering, small utilities, X High costs Pricing mechanism, TMI, non-standardization X Series of mishaps have severely shaken public X Drastic improvement in confidence operating plants performance X Safety Authority perceived too weak X Regaining lost vision

53 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Japan 1

X 1963 – 1976 : JPDR, first nuclear electricity

X 1966: 1st commercial NPP, Tokai Magnox (1998), imported from UK

X 1970: Mihama 1, PWR 340 MWe, Kansai

X 1971: Fukushima 1, BWR 400 MWe, Tepco 9 Utilities + JAPC : 5 Utilities BWR (Hitachi, Toshiba from GE license) 4 Utilities PWR (MHI from Westinghouse license)

54 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Japan 2

X 1997: 1st ABWR Kashiwasaki-Kariwa 6

X Long-term = FBR. Joyo Monju

X ATR Fugen shut down, no successor

X 30 MWt HTTR first to produce nuclear hydrogen ?

X Centrifuge Plant Rokkasho

X Reprocessing plants Tokai, Rokkasho

X « Pluthermal » MOX

X 2006: Completion Rokkasho –Toshiba acquires Westinghouse - GE and Hitachi get closer, MoU between MHI and AREVA

55 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Japan’s trump cards in Generation 4

HTTR

Monju

56 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Soviet Union 1: The Beginnings

X 1946: F1 at Kurchatov Institute = CP1, still operational

X 1954: Obninsk APS1 5MWe connected, ancestor RBMK

X 1964:Beloyarsk 1, 100 MWe RBMK and Novovoronezh 1, 210 MWe VVR + B2, NV2 « Dual Purpose » RBMKs restricted to SU proper, while VVR exported to satellites (except Yugoslavia & Romania)+ Finland, with spent fuel return

X First generation (1973-79) = 12 units, 5.8 GWe, 4 VVR 440/230, 4 RBMK 1000 and 4 Cogen Bilibino

X FBR units BOR 60 and BN 350 (desalination)

57 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Soviet Union : Generation 2

X In Russia : 18 units, 16,5 GWe: 7 RBMK, 2 VVR 440/213, 7 VVR 1000, 1 FBR BN600

X In Ukraine, Lituania : 4 RBMK 1000, 2 RBMK 1500, 2 VVR 400, 13 VVR 1000

X April 26 1986: Accident at Unit 4 Chernobyl

X 1990: End USSR

58 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Russia is Back

X 2001: Commission Rostov 1

X Exports NPP: China, Iran, India – Export SWUs

X Putin Program : 2 units/year after 2010 Develop Nuclear for domestic needs to save natural gas for exports

59 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Canada, host to the 2008 Summer Institute

X September 1945 : ZEEP, first nuclear reactor outside USA

X 1947 NRX

X 1952 AECL (Chalk River)

X 1962 NPD 25 MWe PHWR (AECL, GE, Ontario Hydro) first nuclear electricity

X 1966 Douglas Point 200 MWe CANDU

X 1973 : Pickering, 4 x 800 MWe CANDU (largest nuclear station) + KANUPP + Rajasthan

X 1974 Indian explosion

CAMECO largest Uranium Producer. 3rd world U reserves Exports to Argentina, China, India, Pakistan, Romania, South Korea

Latest AECL design, ACR 1000, uses light water cooling and LEU, but still heavy water moderation

60 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 ZEEP 1945 NRX 1947

Douglas Point 68-84 Heavy Water

61 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Bruce Site

62 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 A Quick look at other Countries

X Belgium : pionneer in MOX. 7 PWR, 54% electricity from nuclear power. 1963 first MOX in 11 MWe BR3. 2003 phaseout Law… unless security of supply threatened.

X South Korea. Fast track. 1972, 1st electricity Kori 1. PWRs (W, Fra, CE) + 3 Candus (Dupic). Now, KSNP

X Germany: Phaseout in 2020 ? Both PWR & BWR. Siemens Nuclear merged into AREVA NP.

X Sweden: How to forget 1980 ? 2 small plants, too close to Denmark, shutdown, but no likelihood of phaseout by 2010.

63 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 X China : diversify from China & India coal. 1st generation, shopping around with HTR 10 localization + Own PWR development. Small FBR & HTR Demos.

X India: Forced autarky. After 1974, India on its own – HWR deployment. Now, PWR imports and FBR FBTR deloyment. Later, Thorium ? A lot will depend upon end of embargo

64 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 European Union : A Strange Puzzle

X 12 Without Nuclear Power : Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Latvia, Luxemburg, Malta, Poland, Portugal

X 15 With Nuclear Power : Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech R, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Lituania, Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK One third EU’s electricity from nuclear plants - No accident since 1957 - Stong GHG reduction Commitments – Fossil fuels dependance 50% 70%

65 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Contribution of Nuclear Power to the Reduction of Energy Imports Dependancy

120%

100%

80%

60% 108%

40%

self sufficiency self 64%

20% 27%

4% 9% 0% Japan USA Germany France UK

without nuclear with nuclear

66 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The result of 50 years of « natural » selection : Nuclear Power Plants, 2005

Operating : 441 units 381 GWe

PWR* BWR GCR RBMK

PHWR Under FBR Construction : 23 units 19 GWe

* VVR included

67 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 LWR Evolution

March 1979 : TMI (representation error) Man/machine Interface Alarms Hierarchization Take time to think Improvements to Generation 2

April 1986 : Tchernobyl (meltdown) Importance of the Containment Protectitagainstcorium, H2 Massive Release unacceptable Generation 3

68 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Current APWRs

APR 1400 S Korea EPR APWR Japan

AP 1000 USA ATMEA Areva- AES 92 Russia Mitsubishi

69 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Current ABWRs

ABWR USA

ESBWR USA

SWR 1000 AREVA NP Germany/France

70 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Olkiluoto 3, April 2008

71 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear reactors « Generations » Future Advanced Operating Nuclear Systems Reactors Reactors Pionner Facilities

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Generation I

Generation II

Generation III

Generation IV

72 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 CO2 Emissions – 450 ppm Stabilization Scenario (IEA WEO 2007)

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 42 Gt 45 CCS in industry Reference Scenario 40 CCS in power generation Nuclear

35 Renewables Switching from coal to gas 2 30 End Use electricity efficiency End Use fuel efficiency Gt CO of 25 27 Gt 450 Stabilisation Case 20 23 Gt

15

10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 In 2030, emissions are reduced to 23 Gt, i.e. 19 Gt reduction vs the Reference Scenario

73 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 74 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 75 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 World Power Production 2050

Prim En. 11.4 23 15.7 Gtoe

76 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Year Country Proliferation Non-Proliferation 1945 USA First ABomb 1949 URSS A Bomb 1952 UK A Bomb USA First H Bomb 1953 URSS H Bomb USA Atoms for Peace 1957 United Nations IAEA UK H Bomb 1960 France A Bomb 1963 USA/USSR/UK Moscow Treaty (Tests limitation) 1964 China A Bomb 1967 China H Bomb 1968 France H Bomb UN Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT 1974 India « Peaceful » A test IAEA « Trigger list», Zangger Commitee Suppliers London Club NSG 1976 France 6 points –CPNE –Stop Pakistan repro

77 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Year Country Proliferation Non-Proliferation 1990 Iraq Clandestine Program Gulf War 1991 South Africa Weapon dismantling, NPT

1992 France, China NPT : all NWS parties. Suppliers (NSG) Full Scope Safeguards 1995 CIS Return of warheads to Russia IAEA Extension NPT, CTBT 1997 IAEA Additional Protocol

1998 India H Bomb 1999 Pakistan A Bomb 2003 Pakistan, Libya, « Bazaar » A Q Khan Iran,NK

North Korea NPT withdrawal 2006 Iran Enrichment Crisis North Korea A Bomb (?)

2007 Syria ????

78 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Non-Proliferation

»Proliferation did and does exist whithout any Nuclear Power : see all weapons States, Israël, Irak, North Korea… »So far, the number of potential proliferators has decreased (Sweden, South Africa, Argentina, Brasil, Ukraine, Khazakstan, etc. vs no new entrant) »Does the development of Nuclear Power increase or decrease the risk of Proliferation ?

79 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Civilian Nuclear Power & Proliferation Risks

X Dissemination of knowledge, X NPT & NSG constraints some disciplines identical, X Safeguards & inspections : not all high likelihood of detecting X Increase inventories of fissile clandestine production materials (not w-grade, but…) X Deterrent of termination of X Possible duplication of techology transfers (India) facilities X Energy security & X Possible Short-cut to diversification of supply weapon-usable materials decreases motivations to proliferate X Legal possibility to terminate NPT with advance notice X Safer technology than indigeneous or…

X Burning w-grade materials

80 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 A Final Word from our Sponsor… For More : www.bertrandbarre.com

82 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008