Survey of Nuclear Politics WNU Summer Institute 2008 Bertrand BARRÉ Professor Emeritus, INSTN – Scientific Advisor AREVA Chairman INEA 1 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 2000 : 6 billion People consumed 10 Gtoe 6,8% Oil Gas 35% Coal Wood,… Nuclear 23,5% Hydro Renew. 21% 2006 : 6.5 billion People consumed 12 Gtoe 2 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear Power 2007 Country GWe TWh Units %Elec USA 99 807 104 19 France 63 420 59 77 Japan 48 267 55 28 Russian Fed. 22 148 31 16 S Korea 18 137 20 35 Germany 20 133 17 26 Canada 13 88 18 15 Ukraine 13 87 15 48 Sweden 9 64 10 46 China 9 59 11 2 WORLD 372 2 608 439 16 WNA June 2008 3 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 52 Years of Nuclear Power 439 reactors in 30 countries 2600 billion kWh/year = Hydro-power > Saudi Oil 16% Electricity 6,5% Primary energy 4 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Climate change is the defining human development issue of our generation Today, we are witnessing at first hand what could be the onset of major human development reversal in our lifetime. Looking to the future, the danger is that it will stall and then reverse progress built-up over generations not just in cutting extreme poverty, but in health, nutrition,education and other areas. www.undp.org 5 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 IPCC established in 1988 Anthropogenic interference with the climate system ? WMO UNEP »IPCC 1990 : Maybe, Maybe not »IPCC 1995 : Maybe »IPCC 2001 : Likely »IPCC 2007 : Very Likely ! IPCC 2007 Findings Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. 7 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Add 900 Mt lignite… 8 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 (less China) Coal is back ! Source AIE 2007 9 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 « Renaissance » ? 10 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 11 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear Generation Forecasts 2010-2030 (Source : IAEA 2007) TWh 1600 1400 1200 2010 l 1000 2010 h ? 2020 l 800 2020 h 600 2030 l 2030 h 400 200 0 North Latin Western Eastern Africa South Asia Far America America Europe Europe Middle East East 12 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Oklo, Gabon 13 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Fission 1932 - 1942 1932: Chadwick discovers neutron 1938 : Fermi plays with neutrons & U. Hahn-Meitner say «fission !» 1939 : Joliot et al. «chain reaction» 1942 : Staggs Field 14 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The Curse on Nuclear Power X Because of WW2, the first application of fission was the A-Bomb 15 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The 50s : Nuclear Electricity 1956 : Inauguration of Calder Hall by Elisabeth II 1951 : EBR 1 lits its buiding 1954: Obninsk connected 16 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 X First to start a Power Programme: X Soviet Union X United Kingdom X France X United States X Canada X Sweden Exports and Licenses (Japan, Gemany) 17 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 400 DC 350 300 Japan / RoK RF / EE 250 200 GW(e) Western Europe 150 100 50 North America 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing 18 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Ups & Downs… but not everywhere at the same time X First big programs : UK, USA, Soviet Union X Followers : Japan, Western Europe, Canada X Relay 80s: France, South Korea X 90s : stagnation America & Europe, growth in Asia X Now : « second souffle » 19 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The British Saga (1) X Tube Alloys associated to the Manhattan Project X 1945 AERE Harwell, military priority GLEEP 1947-90 X No D2O, no SWU GCRs X Windscale production piles 1950-51 X Magnox series (Calder Hall, October 1956) : 11 sites, 26 units, 5 consortia) X U enrichi Oxyde AGR (Windscale 1962) 6 sites, 15 units No standardization, Magnox = reprocessing vision : Pu from Magnox to Breeders 20 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Magnox 300 MW & AGR 600 MW Oldbury A Dungeness B 21 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The British Saga (2) X Dragon 1964-1974, SGHWR 1968-1990 (in case) SGHWR Dragon Project X FBR Programm at Dounreay: DFR 1959-1977, PFR 1974-1994 22 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The British Saga (3) X North Sea Oil & Gas (plus Coal) X Sizewell B 1995-2035 ? 23 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Fuel Cycle in Britain: BNFL Saga X BNFL separates from UKAEA 1971 X U Mines : RTZ (Ranger, Rössing) X Enrichment : BNFL shares in URENCO X Fuel Fabrication : BNFL X Reprocessing : BNFL (?) X 1996 BNFL is given the Magnox (ex-CEGB SSEB) X 1999 BNFL buys Westinghouse from CBS X 2000 BNFL buys ABB-CE X 2005 Nuclear Decommissioning Authority X 2006 BNFL sells Westinghouse to Toshiba, sells BNG/US X 2007 BNF for sale, Magnox go to NDA, Thorp ??? 24 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 The Times November 21, 2005 Britain is ready to go nuclear By Philip Webster, Political Editor Blair courts controversy with power station plan BRITAIN will start building new civil nuclear power stations under plans backed by Tony Blair, The Times has learnt. Less than two years after a government paper called nuclear power an unattractive option, the Prime Minister has become convinced that building nuclear power stations is the only way to secure energy needs and meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions 25 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Nuclear Power in the United States X Priority to the Bomb…then to the Submarines 26 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 1 : The Beginnings X 1946 : Mc Mahon Act, establishes USAEC X 1948 : Westinghouse involved in submarine design X 1950: General Electric, ditto X 1951: MTR, EBR1 at INEL (picture 20-12-51) X 1953: S1W, land-based sub, ancestor PWR. Atoms for Peace Speech. X 1954: Atomic Energy Act opens Nuclear to private industry and declassifies relevant data X 1955-57: AEC launches Power Demonstration Program (PWR, BWR, Na-Graphite, HWR, FBR, HTGR). BORAX III lits Arco. 27 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 2 : The Heydays X 1957: Shippingport 60 MWe PWR, 1st US NPP connected (Shut down 1982, green field 1987) X 1963-1966 : First turnkey Plants W & GE (costs overruns) X 1966: 20 orders in the year, « truly commercial »: B&W, CE and GA join the gang, and A/E intervene X 1972-1972 : > 40 orders/year Shippingport 1957 Dresden 1960 28 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 3 : 1974, Annus Horribilis X 1972 West Valley shut down for refurbishing, will not restart. GE abandons Morris X 1973: Kippour War, 1st Oil shock, Project Independance, Watergate hearings X 1974: Series of NPP cancellations – AEC split into ERDA and NRC, JAEC dissolved –Smiling Buddah X 1976: G Ford stops commercial reprocessing X 1977 (April 7): J Carter kills reprocessing and FBR- ERDA becomes USDOE - INFCE X 1978: Nuclear Non Proliferation Act. Full Scope Safeguards – End of US enrichment monopoly X 1979 (March 29) TMI2 Accident. : National Nuclear Scare 29 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 5: The long Road to Recovery X 1981 R Reagan lifts ban on reprocessing, but no private taker X 1982: Nuclear Waste Act, Government to take charge of spent fuel Jan 31 1998 - 1 mill/kWh X 1985 Portsmouth CGEP cancelled (for AVLIS) X Mid 80s: ALWR FOAK, EPRI URD X 1986 : Chernobyl Accident (much less impact than in Europe) X 90s: NRC licensing reform : One-step Licensing, Design Certification, Early Site Approval, COL X 1998: WIPP receives 1st waste package 30 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 USA 6 : Prelude to Renaissance X Late 90s: End of NPP shutdowns and Rush to License Extension – Improved Availability, uprates – second-hand market for NPPs Nuclear « Fleets » X Progress on Yucca Mountain X Design Certification ABWR, AP600-1000, then ESBWR, EPR X 2005 Energy Policy Act 31 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 Bush à Calvert Cliff, 22 juin 2005 X « It is time for this country to start building nuclear power plants again » 32 - B. Barré WNU Summer Institute July 2008 « GNEP » February 18, 2006 This morning, I want to speak to you about one part of this initiative: our plans to expand the use of safe and clean nuclear power. Nuclear power generates large amounts of low-cost electricity without emitting air pollution or greenhouse gases. Yet nuclear power now produces only about 20 percent of America's electricity. It has the potential to play an even greater role. For example, over the past three decades, France has built 58 nuclear power plants and now gets more than 78 percent of its electricity from nuclear power. Yet here in America, we have not ordered a new nuclear power plant since the 1970s. So last summer I signed energy legislation that offered incentives to encourage the building of new nuclear plants in America. Our goal is to start the construction of new nuclear power plants by the end of this decade.