25 June 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research Restaurants Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (21-Jun-19, US$) 83.82 INITIATION Target price (US$) 92.00 52-week price range (US$) 84.69 - 48.54 Market cap(US$ m) 101,523 A Gold Star in Restaurants; Initiate Outperform Enterprise value (US$ m) 110,969 Target price is for 12 months. ■ We initiate coverage of Starbucks (SBUX) with an Outperform rating Research Analysts and $92 target price. SBUX is one of the highest quality growth companies Lauren Silberman in restaurants, with ~8% rev growth (guide: 7-9%), modest margin expansion 212 325 2720 and repurchases supporting our ~14.5% EPS growth 4-yr CAGR (guide:
[email protected] 10%+). Consistent 3-4% Americas SSS should support current valuation, with Americas sales leverage, improved performance in China, global margin expansion and strategic optionality as drivers of upside. ■ Americas SSS As Primary Focus: An evolving digital ecosystem, beverage innovation, improved food platform, enhanced operations and pricing power support our 3-4% SSS estimate long term, including 3.7% in FY19. SBUX’s loyalty program drives nearly all of its comp growth, and conversion of its non-rewards customers could be a powerful SSS unlock. The comp drag from Frappuccinos should start to abate following an estimated 1% drag in FY18. ■ EPS Growth Story Intact: Guidance for long-term growth of 10%+ appears achievable, with opportunity for a return to beat and raises with a lower bar and margins at multi-year lows (guide 17-18%; 5-yr avg. 19%). We model ~15% EPS growth in FY19 and ~13.5% over the next few years.