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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (21-Jun-19, US$) 83.82 INITIATION Target Price (US$) 92.00 52-Week Price Range (US$) 84.69 - 48.54

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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (21-Jun-19, US$) 83.82 INITIATION Target Price (US$) 92.00 52-Week Price Range (US$) 84.69 - 48.54 25 June 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research Restaurants Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (21-Jun-19, US$) 83.82 INITIATION Target price (US$) 92.00 52-week price range (US$) 84.69 - 48.54 Market cap(US$ m) 101,523 A Gold Star in Restaurants; Initiate Outperform Enterprise value (US$ m) 110,969 Target price is for 12 months. ■ We initiate coverage of Starbucks (SBUX) with an Outperform rating Research Analysts and $92 target price. SBUX is one of the highest quality growth companies Lauren Silberman in restaurants, with ~8% rev growth (guide: 7-9%), modest margin expansion 212 325 2720 and repurchases supporting our ~14.5% EPS growth 4-yr CAGR (guide: [email protected] 10%+). Consistent 3-4% Americas SSS should support current valuation, with Americas sales leverage, improved performance in China, global margin expansion and strategic optionality as drivers of upside. ■ Americas SSS As Primary Focus: An evolving digital ecosystem, beverage innovation, improved food platform, enhanced operations and pricing power support our 3-4% SSS estimate long term, including 3.7% in FY19. SBUX’s loyalty program drives nearly all of its comp growth, and conversion of its non-rewards customers could be a powerful SSS unlock. The comp drag from Frappuccinos should start to abate following an estimated 1% drag in FY18. ■ EPS Growth Story Intact: Guidance for long-term growth of 10%+ appears achievable, with opportunity for a return to beat and raises with a lower bar and margins at multi-year lows (guide 17-18%; 5-yr avg. 19%). We model ~15% EPS growth in FY19 and ~13.5% over the next few years. Greater sales leverage in Americas (~65% operating profit), better-than-expected traction in China from recent initiatives (CAP ~20% operating profit) and strategic optionality represent the greatest sources of upside. SBUX’s 3-yr $25BN capital return (FY18-FY20), leverage and G&A savings targets improve EPS visibility with more controllable factors. ■ Valuation: Our $92 target price is based on ~27x our NTM EPS in 12 months (in-line with implied premium on historical valuation relative to peers), and implies ~18x our NTM EBITDA in 12 months (current multiple ~17.5x). Key risks: competition, consumer spend, inflation. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 2.42 2.79 3.15 3.70 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - P/E rel. (%) 193.7 174.3 171.4 160.1 Revenue (US$ m) 24,719.4 26,282.3 28,496.4 31,295.6 EBITDA (US$ m) 5,529.5 5,706.0 6,314.4 7,109.4 OCFPS (US$) 8.56 4.11 4.41 5.16 P/OCF (x) 6.6 20.4 19.0 16.3 EV/EBITDA (current) 19.6 19.0 17.2 15.3 On 21-Jun-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2950.46 Net debt (US$ m) 502 9,446 11,647 12,322 Daily Jun22, 2018 - Jun21, 2019, 06/22/18 = US$51.24 ROIC (%) 200.04 130.17 106.93 100.58 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of shares (m) 1,211.20 IC (current, US$ m) 1,678.10 2018A 0.65 0.53 0.62 0.62 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) -5.7 Dividend (current, US$) 1.44 2019E 0.75 0.60 0.73 0.71 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 9,610.4 2020E 0.78 0.69 0.84 0.84 Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) -139.1 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 25 June 2019 Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Price (21 Jun 2019): US$83.82; Rating: OUTPERFORM; Target Price: 92.00; Analyst: Lauren Silberman Income Statement 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E Company Background Revenue (US$ m) 24,719.4 26,282.3 28,496.4 31,295.6 Starbucks is the premier roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty EBITDA (US$ m) 5,530 5,706 6,314 7,109 coffee globally operating more than 28,000 company and licensed Depr. & amort. (1,072) (1,171) (1,271) (1,402) stores in 75 countries. EBIT (US$) 4,458 4,535 5,044 5,707 Net interest exp 21 (251) (273) (313) Blue/Grey Sky Scenario PBT (US$) 4,485 4,283 4,771 5,394 Income taxes (1,107) (847) (1,050) (1,187) Profit after tax 3,377 3,437 3,721 4,207 Net profit (US$) 3,377 3,437 3,721 4,207 Other NPAT adjustments 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E Cash flow from operations 11,938 5,068 5,211 5,871 CAPEX (1,976) (1,996) (2,000) (2,000) Free cashflow to the firm 9,961 3,073 3,211 3,871 Cash flow from investments (2,362) (1,861) (2,000) (2,000) Net share issue(/repurchase) (6,980) (10,152) (3,501) (2,476) Dividends paid (1,743) (1,805) (1,910) (2,070) Changes in Net Cash/Debt 739 (8,944) (2,200) (675) Balance Sheet (US$) 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E Cash & cash equivalents 8,756 1,676 476 800 Account receivables 693 823 892 980 Other current assets 1,644 751 751 751 Total fixed assets 5,929 6,698 7,427 8,025 Investment securities 268 252 252 252 Total assets 24,156 17,944 17,542 18,553 Total current liabilities 5,684 5,298 5,392 5,509 Shareholder equity 1,176 (6,651) (7,968) (7,896) Total liabilities and equity 24,156 17,944 17,542 18,553 Net debt 502 9,446 11,647 12,322 Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) 105.00 Per share 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E Our $105 one-year valuation in a blue sky scenario is based on a No. of shares (wtd avg) 1,395 1,234 1,182 1,139 P/E multiple of ~29x our FY20 EPS, implying an EV/EBITDA of ~18x CS adj. EPS 2.42 2.79 3.15 3.70 our blue sky FY20 EBITDA. Our blue sky scenario is based on: 1) Prev. EPS (US$) Americas SSS of 5%; 2) Americas company unit growth of ~5%; and Dividend (US$) 1.32 1.48 1.63 1.84 3) Americas operating margins of ~24%. Free cash flow per share 7.14 2.49 2.72 3.40 Earnings 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) 70.00 Sales growth (%) 10.4 6.3 8.4 9.8 EBIT growth (%) 1.0 1.7 11.2 13.2 Our $70 one-year valuation in a grey sky scenario is based on a P/E Net profit growth (%) 12.2 1.8 8.3 13.1 of ~23.5x our grey sky FY20 EPS implying an EV/EBITDA multiple EPS growth (%) 17.5 15.0 13.1 17.3 of 15x our FY20 EBITDA. Our grey sky FY20 grey sky scenario is EBITDA margin (%) 22.4 21.7 22.2 22.7 based on: 1) Americas SSS of 2%; 2) Americas unit growth of ~2%; EBIT margin (%) 18.0 17.3 17.7 18.2 and 3) Americas operating margins of ~21%. Pretax margin (%) 18.1 16.3 16.7 17.2 Net margin (%) 13.7 13.1 13.1 13.4 Share price performance Valuation 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E EV/EBITDA (x) 19.6 19.0 17.2 15.3 P/E (x) 34.6 30.1 26.6 22.7 Returns 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E ROIC (%) 200.0 130.2 106.9 100.6 Gearing 9/18A 9/19E 9/20E 9/21E Net debt/equity (%) 42.7 (142.0) (146.2) (156.1) Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 0.65 0.53 0.62 0.62 2019E 0.75 0.60 0.73 0.71 2020E 0.78 0.69 0.84 0.84 On 21-Jun-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2950.46 Daily Jun22, 2018 - Jun21, 2019, 06/22/18 = US$51.24 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) 2 25 June 2019 Executive Summary We initiate coverage of Starbucks (SBUX) with an Outperform rating and $92 target price. SBUX is one of the highest quality growth companies in restaurants, with ~8% rev growth (guide: 7-9%), modest margin expansion and repurchases supporting our ~14.5% EPS growth 4-yr CAGR (guide: 10%+). The Americas segment is the primary focus of the SBUX story, representing ~65% of operating income. China, as SBUX’s fastest growing and second largest market, has also generated greater focus more recently, with CAP representing ~20% of operating profit (China likely ~10%). Please refer to our views summarizing the Restaurants industry: US Restaurants Phone To Table: Digitizing Restaurants. ■ Americas As Primary Focus: The majority of sales and profits are comprised in the Americas segment, representing ~70% of revenue, ~65% of operating profit and ~60% of SBUX’s ~30K global units.
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