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Naval Postgraduate School Thesis NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE EXPLOITATION OF A WEAK STATE: AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN YEMEN by Nicholas J. Hedberg June 2010 Thesis Advisor: Mohammed M. Hafez Second Reader: Robert Springborg Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2010 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS The Exploitation of a Weak State: al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas J. Hedberg 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ________________. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Yemen is a weak state, as the government does not have the capability to assert effective control over the entirety of its territory. The Yemeni government faces three major challenges today including: the Houthi Rebellion, secessionists, and growing political unrest due to its failing economy and inability to provide basic social services to its people. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has recently made a resurgence in Yemen since its near destruction in 2003. Yemen’s weak state characteristics, along with the failure of jihad in Saudi Arabia, and the lack of Yemeni political will to combat the threat of AQAP and their global jihadist agenda have made the state an ideal location for the regional organization. AQAP has been able to exploit Yemen’s weaknesses and build strong ties with the Yemeni tribes in the areas of Yemen where the government has little control. The study argues that due to these circumstances, Yemen has the strong possibility of becoming a safe haven for transnational terrorism akin to al- Qaeda’s base in Pakistan today. To prevent al-Qaeda from using Yemen as their next base for transnational terrorism, the international community must help Yemen address the factors that have allowed AQAP to exploit the country. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Terrorism, Weak States. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 111 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE EXPLOITATION OF A WEAK STATE: AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN YEMEN Nicholas J. Hedberg Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Political Science, Gonzaga University, 2005 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2010 Author: Nicholas J. Hedberg Approved by: Mohammed M. Hafez Thesis Advisor Robert Springborg Second Reader Harold A. Trinkunas, PhD Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Yemen is a weak state, as the government does not have the capability to assert effective control over the entirety of its territory. The Yemeni government faces three major challenges today including: the Houthi Rebellion, secessionists, and growing political unrest due to its failing economy and inability to provide basic social services to its people. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has recently made a resurgence in Yemen since its near destruction in 2003. Yemen’s weak state characteristics, along with the failure of jihad in Saudi Arabia, and the lack of Yemeni political will to combat the threat of AQAP and their global jihadist agenda have made the state an ideal location for the regional organization. AQAP has been able to exploit Yemen’s weaknesses and build strong ties with the Yemeni tribes in the areas of Yemen where the government has little control. The study argues that due to these circumstances, Yemen has the strong possibility of becoming a safe haven for transnational terrorism akin to al-Qaeda’s base in Pakistan today. To prevent al-Qaeda from using Yemen as their next base for transnational terrorism, the international community must help Yemen address the factors that have allowed AQAP to exploit the country. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. RESEARCH QUESTION ...............................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE................................................................................................2 C. ISSUES RAISED BY RESEARCH QUESTION..........................................3 D. MAIN ARGUMENT........................................................................................5 E. ROADMAP.......................................................................................................6 II. HISTORY OF MODERN YEMEN ...........................................................................7 A. FORMING A SINGLE STATE......................................................................7 B. HISTORY OF AL-QAEDA IN YEMEN.....................................................15 III. AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP).......................................25 A. REEMERGENCE, GRIEVANCES, AND GOALS ...................................26 B. YEMENI TRIBES .........................................................................................33 C. COMPOSITION ............................................................................................35 D. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ......................................................................37 IV. CHALLENGES FACING THE YEMENI GOVERNMENT................................41 A. HOUTHI REBELLION ................................................................................42 B. SOUTHERN SECESSIONISTS...................................................................47 C. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES............................51 1. Poverty and Unemployment..............................................................51 2. Dwindling Oil Resources ...................................................................52 3. Water and Qat Crisis.........................................................................53 4. Growing Population...........................................................................55 5. Porous Borders and Culture of Arms ..............................................55 6. Education............................................................................................56 V. WHY YEMEN?..........................................................................................................59 A. PROBLEMS WITH WEAK STATES.........................................................60 B. SUCCESS IN SAUDI ARABIA....................................................................63 C. LACK OF POLITICAL WILL ....................................................................69 VI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...................................................75 A. TARGET AQAP ............................................................................................78 B. END CONFLICTS TO INCREASE STABILITY .....................................79 C. HELP ADDRESS YEMENI GRIEVANCES..............................................81 D. SOFT COUNTERTERRORISM STRATEGY ..........................................85 LIST OF REFERENCES......................................................................................................89 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .........................................................................................97 vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AQAP Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula DRY Democratic Republic of Yemen GPC General Popular Congress FLSY Front for the Liberation of Occupied South Yemen GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAA Islamic Army of Aden MAK Afghan Service Bureau NIF National Islamic Front NLF National Liberation Front PDRY People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen PRAC Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Aftercare ROY Republic of Yemen YAR Yemen Arab Republic YSP Yemeni Socialist Party ix THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
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