The Global Economy and Institutional Development
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND SOCIAL ORDER DEVELOPMENT IN POST- SOCIALIST EUROPE by RICHARD M. CONNOLLY A thesis submitted to the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Centre for Russian and East European Studies School of Government and Society College of Social Sciences The University of Birmingham July 2009 i University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures ……………………………………………………………....ix Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………..xiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction………………………………………………………........................…........1 1.1 Aims of the thesis……….....………………………..……………………………........1 1.2 How the study is approached............…………………………………………….........7 1.3 Thesis structure……………………………………………………………………....10 CHAPTER TWO Conceptual framework: economic structure, the international economy, and social- order development……………………………...................................……………........15 2. Introduction……………………………………………………………………….......15 2.1 Institutional explanations of economic and political behaviour…………………......15 2.1.1 Institutions and organizations………………………………………….......15 2.1.2 Analytical approaches to studying institutions………………………….....17 2.1.3 From the ‗old‘ institutionalisms to the ‗new‘………………………….......18 2.1.4 The ‗new institutionalisms‘: a conceptual melange……………………......21 2.1.5 Rational choice institutionalism………………………………………........21 2.1.6 Structural and constructivist institutionalism…………………………........23 2.1.7 Historical institutionalism…………………………………………….........24 2.1.8 Continuity and change in historical institutionalism…………………........25 2.1.9 Institutional continuity: path dependence…………………………….........26 2.1.10 Institutional change: path contingency...……………………………........28 2.1.11 Institutional analysis: conclusion……………………………………........32 2.2 The object of explanation: social orders across the post-communist region…….......34 2.2.1 Limited-access orders (LAOs)………………………………………..........36 2.2.2 Open-access orders (OAOs)…………………………………………..........38 ii 2.2.3 The ‗double balance‘ between politics and economics……………….........40 2.2.4 Conclusion: social orders in the post-socialist context……………….........42 2.3 The explanatory variable: economic structure and the international economy….......44 2.3.1 The international economy and domestic economic organizations…..........46 2.3.2 How sectors shape politics……………………………………………........50 2.3.3 Sectoral attributes and the implications for economic and political competition…………………………………………………………………........53 2.3.4 The technology intensity of production and the implications for economic and political competition…………………………………………........................55 2.3.5 The mechanisms linking economic structure and political competition.......57 2.3.6 Testable hypotheses......................................................................................59 2.4 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………….......61 CHAPTER THREE Data description, measurement and case selection.........................................……......63 3. Introduction………………………………………………………………………........63 3.1 Measuring the dependent variable: social orders………………………………….....63 3.2 Measuring the independent variable: the structure of exports..……………………...68 3.2.1 Inter-sectoral concentration and diversity……………………………….....68 3.2.2 The technology intensity of exports……………………………………......71 3.2.3 The Technological Development and Diversity Index………………….....74 3.3 Case study selection and timeframe............……………………………………….....77 3.4 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………….......80 CHAPTER FOUR The international economy and political economy in the post-socialist region: a historical overview.....…................……………………...................…….......................81 4. Introduction………………………………………………………………………........81 4.1 Socialism and the international economy: 1917-1980…………………………….....82 4.2 The collapse of the socialist system, 1980-1989…………………….………….........93 4.2.1 Export patterns among the socialist economies………………………........93 iii 4.2.2 Variation in state-type across the socialist bloc ….……………………......98 4.3 Economic reform and re-integration with the international economy………….......102 4.3.1 Post-socialist patterns of structural economic continuity and change…....106 4.4 The relationship between economic structure and social order.................................111 4.4.1 Alternative explanations of social order development…………………....112 4.5 Conclusion.................................................................................................................118 CHAPTER FIVE Economic structure, the international economy and the collapse of the Soviet Union...............................................................................................................................120 5. Introduction………………………………………………………………………......120 5.1 The role of natural resources in the Soviet economy ……………………………....121 5.2 The Soviet system: obstacles to systemic reform.…………………….…………....128 5.3 Exogenous shocks, institutional disarray and the collapse of the Soviet Union…...133 5.4 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………….....141 CHAPTER SIX Russia natural resource sectors and limited-access politics.............................….....144 6. Introduction………………………………………………………………………......144 6.1 The socialist legacy………………………………………………………………....147 6.1.1 Economic legacies………………………………………………………...147 6.1.2 Political legacies………………………………………………………….149 6.2 General features of economic structure in Russia…………………………………..151 6.2.1 Leading sectors and Russia‘s position in the international economy…….151 6.2.2 Sectoral characteristics…………………………………………………....153 6.2.3 International trends in natural resource sectors…………………………...155 6.3 Structure and ownership in the Russian economy and the role of leading export sectors, 1991-1998……………………………………………………………………...157 6.3.1 Market reforms under Yeltsin and the failure of structural transformation…………………………………………………………………..157 6.3.2 Structure and ownership in leading Russian export sectors, 1991-1998…162 iv 6.3.3 The Russian economy under Yeltsin: conclusion………………………...166 6.4 Capacity for collective action among organizations in Russian politics, 1991- 1998……………………………………………………………………………………..167 6.4.1 Financial-industrial groups and the state: the politics of patronage……....167 6.4.2 The weakness of organizations outside of the state and leading economic sectors………………………………………………………………..171 6.5 Social order type in Russia, 1991-1998…………………………………………….174 6.5.1 Voice and accountability………………………………………………….175 6.5.2 Rule of law………………………………………………………………..177 6.5.3 Control of corruption……………………………………………………..177 6.5.4 Conclusion: the culmination of the Yeltsin period and the 1998 crisis ….178 6.6 The reassertion of the state under Vladimir Putin, 1999-2007……………………..181 6.6.1 The capacity for collection action among Russia organizations: the strengthening of the state….....…………………………………………….181 6.6.2 The continued weakness of counterweights to big business and the state..184 6.7 Structure and ownership in leading Russian export sectors, 1999-2007: the de-privatization of leading export sectors……….………………………………….189 6.8 Social order type in Russia under Putin: a further decline in the level of competition………….…………………………………………………..194 6.8.1 Voice and accountability……………..…………………………………...196 6.8.2 Rule of law……………………………………………………………......196 6.8.3 Control of corruption…………………………………………………......198 6.8.4 Conclusion: social order regression under Putin………………………….198 6.9 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….199 CHAPTER SEVEN Belarus and Romania: contrasting cases in structural transformation and social order development………..................................................………...............................202 7. Introduction………………………………………………………………………......202 7.1 The socialist legacy………………………………………………………………....205 7.1.1 Economic legacies………………………………………………………...205 v 7.1.2 Political legacies………………………………………………………….212 7.1.3 Conclusion..................................................................................................215 7.2 General features of economic structure................…………………………………216 7.2.1 Leading sectors and the position of Belarus and Romania in the international economy…….......................................................................................................212 7.2.2 Sectoral characteristics…………………………………………………....221 7.2.3 Conclusion..................................................................................................224 7.3 Main economic developments and market structure of leading export sectors.........225 7.3.1 Main economic developments in the post-socialist period.........................225 7.3.2 Privatization............................................................................................…226 7.3.3 Investment………………………...............................................................227 7.3.4 External factors...........................................................................................230