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FAA Regional Air Service Demand Study PANYNJ covers.qxd 7/17/07 8:54 AM Page 2 Grant #: FAA Regional 3-36-0066-111-02 Air Service Demand Study Task B — Forecast of Passengers, Operations and Other Activities May 2007 Port Authority of New York & New Jersey JFK – LGA – EWR – John F. Kennedy LaGuardia Airport Newark Liberty International Airport International Airport New York State Department of Transportation SWF – HPN – ISP – Stewart International Westchester County Long Island Airport Airport MacArthur Airport Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission ABE – ACY – TTN – Lehigh Valley Atlantic City Trenton Mercer International Airport International Airport Airport SPONSORS: Federal Aviation Administration OF NY & NJ FAA Regional Air Service Demand Study Acknowledgements Study Sponsors The Federal Aviation Administration The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Consultant Team PB Americas, Inc. Landrum & Brown Airport Interviewing & Research Hirsh Associates SIMCO Engineering InterVISTAS Clough Harbour & Associates Hamilton, Rabinowitz & Alschuler The preparation of this document was financed in part through a planning grant from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as provided under Vision 100 — Century of Aviation Authorization Act. The contents reflect the opinion of the preparer and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the FAA or the PANYNJ. Grants PANYNJ: 3-36-0066-111-02 FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY TASK B REPORT PORT AUTHORITY OF NEW YORK & NEW JERSEY TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE Executive Summary Introduction/Purpose ............................................................................ ES-1 Summary of Findings Annual Forecasts of Aviation Activity......................... ES-2 Changes in Regional Air Service Since 2005 ............................................. ES-8 I – Airport Service Areas ......................................................................I-2 I.1 Zip Code Analysis Passenger Surveys .................................I-3 I.2 Identification of Airport Service Areas .................................I-8 II – Past Trends in Airline Service .......................................................II-2 II.1 Summary of Past Trends in Airport Traffic ..........................II-2 II.2 Airline Industry Trends at the Port Authority Airports ...........II-3 III – Impact Factors ......................................................................... III-1 III.1 Low Cost Carriers ......................................................... III-5 III.2 The Airbus 380 ............................................................. III-5 III.3 Other New Aircraft Types ............................................... III-6 III.4 New Missions for Existing Aircraft Types........................... III-7 III.5 Changes in Access Regulations at LGA ............................. III-7 III.6 Changes in Access Regulations at EWR and JFK................. III-9 III.7 Elimination of the Perimeter Rule at LGA .......................... III-9 III.8 Fuel Prices ..................................................................III-10 III.9 Airline Bankruptcies .....................................................III-12 III.10 Effects of Economic Upturns and Downturns ....................III-12 III.11 Perceived Effects of the Attacks of September 11, 2001 – Real Decline in Short-Haul Travel ...................................III-14 III.12 Perceived Effects of the Attacks of September 11, 2001 – Declining yields for Long-Haul Travel ..............................III-16 III.13 Perceived Effects of the Attacks of September 11, 2001 – Air Cargo Industry ......................................................III-18 III.14 Airline Industry Outlook ................................................III-19 III.15 Effect of Air Traffic Congestion at EWR, LGA and JFK Airports ......................................................................III-20 III.16 Effect of Regional Ground Transportation Congestion ........III-20 III.17 Leakage of Demand to Other Airports .............................III-21 PB/L&B/AIR PANYNJ Table of Contents May 2007 Page-i FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY TASK B REPORT PORT AUTHORITY OF NEW YORK & NEW JERSEY CHAPTER PAGE IV – Regional and Local Socioeconomic Trends ..................................IV-2 IV.1 Population ....................................................................IV-3 IV.2 Employment..................................................................IV-7 IV.3 Per Capita Personal Income.............................................IV-9 IV.4 Gross Domestic Product................................................ IV-13 IV.5 Airline Yield................................................................. IV-16 V - Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions.................................... V-1 V.1 Methodology .................................................................. V-1 V.2 O&D Passenger Forecast Models........................................ V-2 V.3 O&D Forecast Assumptions .............................................. V-3 VI – Enplaned Passengers Forecasts ..................................................VI-1 VI.1 Domestic Originating Enplaned Passengers ........................VI-1 VI.2 International Originating Enplaned Passengers ................. VI-12 VI.3 Connecting Passengers ................................................. VI-19 VI.4 Total Enplaned Passengers ............................................ VI-29 VII – Air Cargo Volume Forecasts......................................................VII-1 VII.1 State of the Industry .....................................................VII-1 VII.2 Historical Trends in Air Cargo .........................................VII-1 VII.3 Qualitative Forecast Assumptions ....................................VII-6 VII.4 Forecast Methodology....................................................VII-7 VII.5 Air Cargo Forecast Results .............................................VII-8 VIII – Aircraft Operations Forecast ..................................................VIII-1 VIII.1 Passenger Operations...................................................VIII-1 VIII.2 All-Cargo Operations Forecast......................................VIII-36 VIII.3 General Aviation Operations ........................................VIII-39 VIII.4 Military Oerations ......................................................VIII-42 VIII.5 Total Aircraft Operations .............................................VIII-44 IX – Comparison to the FAA 2005 Terminal Area Forecast ..................IX-1 IX.1 JFK Airport....................................................................IX-1 IX.2 LGA Airport...................................................................IX-3 IX.3 EWR Airport ..................................................................IX-5 X – Peak Month Average Day............................................................... X-1 X.1 PMAD Enplanements ....................................................... X-2 X.2 PMAD Aircraft Operations ................................................. X-4 PB/L&B/AIR PANYNJ Table of Contents May 2007 Page-ii FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY TASK B REPORT PORT AUTHORITY OF NEW YORK & NEW JERSEY CHAPTER PAGE XI – Terminal Level Forecasts ............................................................XI-1 XII – Sensitivity Scenarios ................................................................XII-1 XII.1 JFK Airport...................................................................XII-1 XII.2 LGA Airport................................................................ XII-11 XII.3 EWR Airport ............................................................... XII-20 XII.4 Port Authority Total..................................................... XII-29 XIII - Task D – 2015 Airline Flight Schedules ...................................XIII-1 XIII.1 Enplaned Passengers....................................................XIII-1 XIII.2 Aircraft Operations.......................................................XIII-3 PB/L&B/AIR PANYNJ Table of Contents May 2007 Page-iii FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY TASK B REPORT PORT AUTHORITY OF NEW YORK & NEW JERSEY TABLES Table 1 Enplaned Passenger Forecast Summary ........................... ES-2 Table 2 Aircraft Operations Forecast Summary ............................. ES-6 Table 3 Air Cargo Tonnage Forecast Summary ............................. ES-7 Table I-1 Summary of Survey Sampling Plan.....................................I-3 Table II-1 Past Trends in Enplaned Passengers at Port Authority Airports .........................................................................II-1 Table II-2 Past Trends in Air Cargo Tonnage at Port Authority Airports ..II-1 Table II-3 Past Trends in Aircraft Operations at Port Authority Airports..II-3 Table II-4 Kennedy Surveyed Connecting passenger Information .........II-7 Table II-5 Newark Surveyed Connecting Passenger Information ...........II-8 Table III-1 Maximum Range for Long-Haul Service from Laguardia ...... III-8 Table III-2 Preferred Airports ........................................................III-21 Table III-3 Other Airports Considered when Planning Trip..................III-25 Table IV-1 Port Authority Socioeconomic Variables.............................IV-1 Table V-1 Independent Variables Used in Final O&D Forecasts ............. V-3 Table V-2 jetBlue Impact on Domestic O&D Traffic............................. V-6 Table VI-1 Kennedy Historical Domestic Originating Passengers ...........VI-2 Table VI-2 LaGuardia Historical
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